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{In fact, Hurricane Sandy helped to trigger orders for dozens of new turbines, highlighting the company's role in storm-ravaged locations.}
Interesting that nothing was mentioned on Capstone's Press Release page about these "dozens" of orders. Of course as DJ as always said only orders of "material" importance receive such high billing. I would have thought something as game changing as this would be material.
What DJ did say in one article was that "they were receiving "dozens of phone calls" inquiring about their product.
No problem. The DD is mostly based past performance, whether it be Q/Q. Y/Y, or recent short reports, etc. Like I said..."We'll all know on the 11th." Simple fact. Just FYI...there are many who post here that do believe in the company, but are a bit skeptical at the moment due lack of announcements, and the mystery 15% one day drop followed by sideways action afterwards. All of the reasons given for that action are just conjecture. Even Mr. Murphy, in the article you posted, made the comment "There's still been no major news either, other than a report of a small (meaningless order)..." There were actually two but in the total scheme of things they will not pay the rent.
Fortunately, there has been a slight uptick in both volume and pps in the last 1/2 hour. Let's hope the trend continues for the next.
Good find gene genome It appears that the test unit is sitting in a site trailer, more testimony that this is a problem that doesn't require a lot of infrasture--passed both tests too! Now someone has to lean on the E&P folks and let them know that flaring isn't going to be tolerated.
Bryan Murphy: "My bullish stance on Capstone Turbine Corporation was not well received." Will he have to write another mea culpa? Any lifeline in a "man overboard situation" is welcome if they can grab it and hang on. Just the fact that that line was thrown gives both the folks on the ship hope just as it does to the folks floundering about in the shark infested waters.
Now Mr. Murphy has to contend with today's 2.7% pull back. "Most likely someone knows - or thinks they know - something about that upcoming earnings number." Some definitely know and some might think they know. For those that think they know, like some here, well... they'll find out with the rest of us on the 11th.
{Cramer on CNBC last night was waving around the FT flaring seen from space article..Capstone can solve this problem}
A little bit of Cramer goes a long way for me and I don't watch him too often. As difficult a time I have watching his antics he can move a stock. We just need him waving around a big Capstone Logo along with the flare photo and saying something to the effect that the solution to flaring already exists.
When I read that a gas production facility manager says that pipelines are a pain and expensive it makes one wonder how this guy thanks the product gets to and from his plant. The data is pretty startling when you read about the number of wells that are flaring a precious commodity with impunity, but it seems quite obvious that no one is in a big hurry to change the practice.
This is a perfect set-up for NY State. They have taken a back seat and can learn from others. Enacting legislation containing "best practices" required (drilling, water, transport, fluid disposal, etc.) and forbidding flaring would seem a rational starting point if they ever decide to tap that resource.
The news this morning following that of 5 days ago certainly helps. Nevertheless there has been a 90+ day lull in "material" announcements. My hope is that the back log kept the production line and shipping dock busy in that time frame. I did read over on IV site that the production facility was shut down for a week in December, but have no confirmation of that. Q3 still looms and will tell the tale if now is/was a good time to buy or not.
While the link to the FT article I posted early this morning is dead there are of course plenty of sites that picked it up. It appeared in the mainstream news when I saw it so suspect many saw it and perhaps took a look as most always a space shot is of interest to many. My warm take away on the article is that the State of North Dakota is "considering" legislation that would encourage flare reduction through tax breaks. Can you imagine how many Capstone Turbines could be sold if a tax incentive (subsidy) was enacted?
Google up "gas flaring seen from space" and you'll find that The U.S. is now the fifth worst country for flaring, behind Russia, Nigeria, Iran and Iraq.
Not only is this an ecological disaster but also a complete waste of a natural resource. The Financial Times reports that fracking companies in the U.S. are burning off enough gas to power all the homes in Chicago and Washington “in a practice causing growing concern about the waste of resources and damage to the environment.”
The volume of flaring in North Dakota, the leading state in the shale oil revolution increased by a whopping 50 percent last year. The Balken field in the state is now responsible for 10 percent of total U.S. output but, because the state is remote, pipeline connections have failed to keep pace.
It all boils down to basic crude economics: “I’ll tell you why people flare: It’s cheap,” argues Troy Anderson, the lead operator of a North Dakota gas-processing plant. “Pipelines are expensive: You have to maintain them. You need permits to build them. They are a pain.”
An analysis by the Financial Times on the state of North Dakota reveals that due to the flaring, greenhouse gas emissions are 20 percent above the U.S. average.
The oil industry is using the same argument that it did in Nigeria—its cheaper to flare off gas than build expensive pipelines to harness it. Ironically, the industry is arguing that it’s the cheap price of gas in the U.S. that means that harnessing the gas is uneconomic. ecowatch.org
What with the recent temperature inversion in Salt Lake City and polluted air elsewhere I think this practice will have to be reduced one way or another.
Whatever the reason for todays price action...its all good. Most of the day was about as flat-lined as I've seen but something lit a fire just prior to 3:00 that set off the move upward. Who knows? More good news tomorrow?
I think today's 6% gain may have more to do with the amount of flaring and environmental concerns mentioned in the link I previously posted although I could be completely wrong.
Shale Gas Boom Now Visible From Space
This is a huge market for Capstone. I especially like the last paragraph:
The North Dakota legislature is considering a bill to encourage flaring reduction through tax breaks. The state is also pushing producers to use gas to power drilling rigs.
"Imagine" if you will, Yoko burning coal in any of her posh estates. While I doubt Yoko uses a taxi, or the electrified subway on her way to JFK to board her private jet, she passes by the Tree Museum (Central Park) from her paved paradise.
Big Yellow Taxi
By Joni Mitchell (Covered by Bob Dylan)
They paved paradise and put up a parking lot,
With a pink hotel, a boutique,
And a swinging hot spot.
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got till it's gone?
They paved paradise and put up a parking lot.
They took all the trees and put them in a tree museum.
And they charged all the people
A dollar and a half just to see 'em.
Don't it always seem to go...
NY is just plain dumb, in my opinion, when it comes to fracking. Fracking is nothing new although advanced horizontal drilling techniques are. I'm not saying there are not attendant risk with either fracking or horizontal drilling for oil. Wait until the high sulfur oil sands oil starts coming down to the gulf from Alberta (yes the Keystone pipeline will get built, and that I oppose, because most of that gulf refined product will be transported overseas, and other than the short term construction jobs that particular pipeline will not serve the best interest of this Country.
All of the brouhaha over lighting off a water faucet makes for good press no doubt. When we were kids we knew of two locations that had artisan springs that we lit off on a regular basis, as there was natural gas in the spring water. There were also several well known areas where crude oozed from the ground. That was over 5 decades ago.
Our options to using hydrocarbon fuels are wind, solar, ocean currents, and fuel cells, etc., none of which are close to making economic sense, although fuel cells seem to be the most promising at the current time. What hydro-power we have is great, and so is nuclear if it doesn't escape.
Just my opinion For What Its Worth.
17 days to the Q3 CC and looking at the volume today no one is rushing in to buy up all of those bargain shares at under 78 cents; Just too much uncertainty in my opinion. The Q3 report will pivot on how many units were shipped and paid for during the quarter. Will the oft mentioned string of improving numbers Q/Q and Y/Y continue? The back log numbers will be telling--one would hope that it was shortened in Q3 but on the other hand we don't want to be eyeballing the end of the train in the near future do we? Everything else is like vaporware (old term from the dot com bust era) except the continued royalty payments and warranty costs.
We'll listen to DJ, AJ, and Sanjay talk about lumpiness, shedding some color, poor economy, profits just around the corner; 2014 this time? Wasn't 2013 supposed to be The Year? Looking back three years ago I think DJ predicted it would be. Unless DJ is waving a huge order in his hand we are not looking at a pretty picture.
All just my opinion. Opinions are what we see posted the most anyway since press releases from Capstone have been few and far between.
{in your hypothetical musings have you pondered what the profit on each of these units might be?}
{Yes, I have. You didn't state your estimate.....} I wasn't intending to sound snide and apologize if you took it as such. You are the best Capstone investor numbers guy (except Wild-Bills short intel) that I know of, just wondering was all.
(Are you referring to the Back Log orders being shipped? That number will, of course, be important.
Of course I was. Any order not yet delivered isn't currently in stock or is in the production que. Until the back logged order is requested by the buyer, or their agent, it is simply a P.O. with no inventory to immediately fill it. I'll admit that back ordered was not necessarily the best term to use for the backlog of orders; Sorry about the unintended confusion.
{If we take the medium price range, say $60,000 each C-30, that will be $2,640,000 of revenue added to this Quarter's revenues.}
So, in your hypothetical musings have you pondered what the profit on each of these units might be?
While 2.6 mil is nothing to sneeze at the important issue this quarter will be how many "back-ordered" the end users requested and were shipped during the quarter. It seems that the market has shrugged off the recent follow-on order announcement. Capstone can't make it in the C-30 product line alone at this point in time. The key to profitability will be large shipments of the C600, C800 and C1000 products in my opinion.
The bigger news will be, if it ever comes to fruition, is the very large order of C1000s that was bandied about earlier this year.
I'm suspecting that the less said about the Watering Hole hosting the better. Although this issue is alive and well in the non-mainstream press it is still out there on the security and hacker sites. We sure didn't hear a peep out of the Council of Foreign Relations either. I would just hope that Capstone get's its IT house in order and that even a hint of a breach of security reaches the very top of management immediately (it may have but I doubt we'll never know.) They would have faired better in my mind if they had just shut the site down and did some site maintenance after receiving the initial "head's up" in September. Version 6 of Flash had already been released and they would have halted the transfer object had they simply patched that hole.
Follow-on Order info from Capstone via StockHouse
{The initial order in July 2008 was for the supply of 110 C30 microturbines, which was later increased to 154 C30's in 2009. The first follow-on order was for 44 C30 microturbines in October 2012. The majority of these units were shipped in November and December 2012. The latest order is for 36 units increasing the total number of units sold to date to 234 C30 microturbines.}
{Odd that it is after hours, but hey, gives people time to look at it tonight and consider tomorrow.}
Yes, the only info I have seen is from my platform, i.e. Capstone Receives Another Follow-On Order From Large Australian Coal Seam Gas Co More to follow...
Nothing yet on Capstone's site. Would be nice if this is related to the Australia Pacific LNG Project
More on Watering Hole Exploit
If you click on comment hyper-link the link at the bottom of the above article and then scroll to the bottom of Eric Romang's blog you will see a comment from someone with an alias of Aaron stating "Id like to resolve this, please contact me." Clicking on Aaron it shows Capstone Turbine as the originator although of course this can't be confirmed. Interesting reading in the blog in any case.
Perhaps I misunderstood your premise. It would seem to me that for folks who follow analysts opinions that they would perceive this as a great time to buy, but that has yet to materialize. That is why is was suggesting that if they, the analysts, were trying to manipulate the price downward on inside information that we would be in a short squeeze if buyer's starting flocking in on ratings. You suggest that they, the analysts know the business better than anyone. My take on the matter is that if "they" manipulated the price down in expectation of blow out numbers, to increase their gains, they would have to be buying considerable shares at these prices to make it worth while.
I didn't look at the buy/sell ratios for last week but there sure seemed to be more sellers than buyers. As gene_genome pointed out the circuit breaker was triggered early in the session on the 15th but the price nevertheless continued downward on huge volume. This further confirms my thoughts that for some reason buyers were spooked and the sells started flowing in.
Notwithstanding the above response I can always learn something new (and do all the time here) but won't buy into your premise until I see the numbers that prove it. Call me a skeptic if you will, but something sure smells and it sure isn't the left over Crab Louie from JMP's hosted meeting on the 16th in San Francisco. I'll be glad to be proven wrong and will be first in line to sing "I left my heart in San Francisco" should the numbers show a profit.
{Who would know CPST better than them?}
DJ
{Who would benefit more by pushing the pps down in preparation of an upward move with a profitability announcement?}
If this is the case where are the buys? The numbers sure didn't show the level of activity that your premise would suggest. If shorters you would assume that the action on the 15th created a great opportunity to cover, but unless those were naked shorts those buys were to cover. The next move would have been to buy, buy, buy, but the pps doesn't confirm that, at least in my limited view, as we would have seen a short squeeze on the remaining uncovered shorts. Nothing in the ensuing 3 days of trading confirms your hypothesis due normal or lower than normal 90 day average volume and the pps just about where it was at the market close on Tuesday. The standard disclaimer "I could be totally wrong" applies and I certainly have no problem with that if I am.
Perhaps next week if we see a significant increase in the pps with higher than normal volume perhaps the fly did the buzz buzz buy buy thing on inside knowledge gained after hanging out on a wall in San Diego.
Will I be a "remorseful seller" if we have great Q3 numbers? Not as remorseful as I would be feeling at the moment, as I was truly overweighted on this security. If we do get a nice spike in price on the Q3 numbers I still hold enough shares that I will be a very happy investor, just not an euphoric Powerball winner.
{I forgot about the short sale circuit breaker rule and it's effect on price}
So was it triggered? If not "Houston, we have a problem" if it was "Houston, we have a problem." Is there anyway to determine if it was in effect? If it didn't trigger why, which such unusually high volume didn't this make the news and why isn't the SEC investigating?
{See you at the casino on Tueday.}
LOL. I am now predicting that Monday is going to be a slow day.
Re: recent dialog between the Capt'n and chklingon... This is some healthy dialog and I'm glad to see that there are no gaps in the posting numbers.
At 0258 in the wee hours of the morning of January 15 I suggested that "today could be the day things could get real ugly" or something to that effect. At 0725 on the same morning a Fly on the Wall let us know that CPST was having a 2 day Soiree Hosted by JMP Securities. From the opening the stock took a really ugly hit being down over 12% at one point. It wasn't until 1045 that things started to correct ending the day down ~5.4%
About 2 hours before the morning tea on the 16th JMP announces that the previous day's sell-off creates a "buying opportunity." Interesting that they had such clarity after the coffee in San Diego the day before, and they are still scheduled to "host" a meeting with CPST in San Francisco later in the day. By the end of the day JMP was so impressed with the hors d'oeuvres, dinner and cocktails they pronounced that they were convinced that the sell-off was unwarranted and gave CPST an "Outperform Ranking." Out performing who or what was not mentioned. (BTW-Thanks to gene_genome for the JMP Fly news)
Discounting that it has now been 87 days since a "material" announcement of sales, bad news about a watering hole in the IT department, a list of high level career openings being advertised, Notice of Delisting, major market sectors hitting highs not seen since '07, current Market Watch Analyst "http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cpst/analystestimates" Estimates--"Overweight and a dollar 88" (although I can find others with 87% StarMine Accuracy being extremely bearish.) I have seen the past Q/Q and Y/Y numbers reposted about as often at the standard disclaimer “past performance is not indicative of future performance” so those past numbers are more or less meaningless to me until we see the 3Q numbers in the next two weeks. We've heard it before but "this quarter's results are crucial."
It still boils down to "show me the money" as in "in the black." That being said the same analysts mentioned above are estimating -0.02 cents for Q3. Is the next quarter, next year story wearing a bit thin on investors? I think so and it certainly is to me. Other than that I have absolutely no clue as to what is going on with the company, pps, ratings, etc.
See you at the casino on Monday.
Thanks for doing and sharing the research. Unfortunately, it seems that the market isn't paying too much attention as the price drifted back down as several here expected.
Those of us who are still hanging in sure hope that they are "getting their ducks in a row." Not sure what that means, but it is interesting that JMP could have been one of the largest beneficiaries of this latest take down. So, if they pump the stock back up are they not just preparing to short it down again?
If shorter's are the reason the pps remains under a dollar the only way to break this cycle is for Capstone to start making money, and lots of it. In the absence of real profits this game will either continue or the company will fade away in my opinion.
I would expect to see increased pumping to keep this boat afloat but even following the adage "if you thought it was a good buy at 90 cents why wouldn't you buy at .78" it's simply because the risk exposure has increased, at least for me.
{Capstone Turbine sell-off creates buying opportunity, says JMP Securities}
And the fly buzzed down to JMP Securities and learned that Capstone is focused on raising revenue and improving margins.
As the fly continued to buzz around it realized, while looking at things through its multi-faceted eyes, that this story has been told before. Perhaps this time is different it reasoned...buzz, buzz, buzz, time to buy said the fly.
It then decided to hang around and see if the recent pumping had floated the boat. Seems those gunnels are getting closer to the water again, buzz, buzz. Pump, pump, pump said the fly.
{Bloomberg adds that the company is focused on raising revenue and improving margins.}
Gosh darn! I think da Mayor ought to go out and have a 32 oz. "real coke" with a Big Mac. Such insight and depth of reasoning that a fly on the wall could figure it out. This is the best news ever, especially coming to light with no big sales announcements that would raise revenue and improve margins on volume.
Over a 50% retrace from this mornings low--good flip? I wouldn't have the balls to have gone in at .73, nevertheless the turn around is making the morning look a bit brighter, but then again... there's tomorrow.
That "seller's remorse" is feeling pretty good about now although like I said the other day "I should have sold it all" at a small profit. What I still hold is putting a pretty big ding in my account.
So much for that 3X ten day average volume--blew right past that already.
{ouch....... this is ugly today}
Yes it is. Looks like ugly came sooner than some expected. I expected it today but not this bad. What's worse than ugly? 3X normal volume in store today? Down over 9% right now and the day is only an hour old. This could get a whole lot uglier. It was just over 5 years ago that we hit these levels--bonuses for everyone! Now down over 12%--buy buy buy! Or should I say bye bye bye?
That "strong support" on Oct 3, 2011 was a one day dead cat bounce. Further back, say 37 months or so ago the pps penetrated .86 and went to a high after POTUS made mention of Capstone. Since that spike if you look at the long chart it has been trending downward ever since. Yes, there were a few places to flip and make a few bucks, but the trend has not been our friend.
We are only talking about another one cent and a fraction to go downward "before things get ugly" which could very well happen today. Personally I think things are already pretty ugly despite the recent history of improving numbers.
Not a peep out of Chatsworth for 84 days despite them being prominently and negatively featured in the world press. The reasons for the lack of response to hosting the infamous Watering Hole malware I would hope are due to guidance from much higher authorities than their own Counsel; This is a big deal in a brave new world. The reason for the lack of new "material" orders is because there aren't any, or at least one would be led to believe that considering past Press Releases.
I'm still intrigued about the plethora of "Career" openings at Chatsworth. Due the very nature of those high dollar jobs should be enough for some type of announcement, unless such an announcement is detrimental to the company. One would hope that the new overhead will be off-set or exceeded by A/R. Any statement of course would be "forward looking" unless there are orders placed that we haven't been told about. I also don't know if these jobs are being brought in-house (if they were previously out-sourced,) or are positions opened up by former employees.
Lot's of intrigue, speculation (except for previous oft-quoted numbers,) current downward movement in share price, bad press, and no announced orders make it just a tad difficult to do any real DD at this time. Steer your on course seems to rule the day, and it goes without saying that I do hope that we don't run aground.
{Now.... is it working toward a "ground floor opportunity." Or will be once this drop finds a true bottom. Charts are now broken so everything is fair.}
Everything else in my portfolio is doing well but each day Capstone gives me a haircut so I'm going to say that I'm still overweighted in this security. The last I heard about "now is a good time to get in" was in the 96 to 98 cent range (before that it was the $1.05 - $1.08 range.) Wonder if old VC is still hanging with us? Something sure isn't working and more appears to be broke than the charts and investors. Will the IHs hold or fold? Retail?
It seems that we all agree that the only thing that is going to stop this slide is a significant order announcement from Capstone. The old fear and greed, isn't it a conundrum? I can tell you right now that I have no seller's remorse right now, other than not dumping it all.
Not an old-fart at all. I pretty much manage my network the same way as you. Too many passwords, which change frequently, so they, like yours are stored in an encrypted file. The rest of your post pretty much mimics my computer management methodology also. The Reader was an oversight for sure.
BTW, that was a valid update just to fill a few hundred more holes. Nevertheless, I uninstalled it and reinstalled from Adobe as there is so much content that requires it you would be pretty much cripple and blind without it.
Paranoid? Yes. While on the "Careers at Capstone" page I highlighted the listed openings in preparation of copying them to my previous message. My NoScript tool notified me that there was an unknown object or redirect on that page. The object was "Click here to see video." in light of what has been revealed in the last week or so I decided not to copy the info and just at that moment my Adobe Reader automatically updated itself. Makes one wonder...
I deleted the updated file and will check Adobe to see if there is indeed a new version available. I will also turn off auto updating.
The topic of "Open Positions" was posted over on the IV board by Captainondeck 2 days ago and can be seen at Careers at Capstone. What's up with this? Any ideas good or bad? New positions, replacement troops, giant order, or just another FUBAR management issue?
The lead in gives me a chuckle, albeit an expensive one: {Please check our open positions below. If you don’t see a position that interests you, click here to let us know how you can make a difference at Capstone Turbine Corporation.} Uh, uh, I think I can sell turbines, can you slot me in somewhere?
{Shorts are quite good at covering without applying undue pressure.}
At least 3 of us agree on that point, perhaps 4. When you are buying or selling in this environment patience is the key. I came up with an axiom a ways back that stated "when trading against the machines patience is a virtue." While I don't short, I still break my lots down so as not to affect the buy/sell unduly. Put an order in for 50K shares and watch the price move.
81 days since last "material" announcement of a sale; the last occurred on October 22, 2012. I think also that you are correct in stating that "folks are tired of promises, promises, promises..." Show me the money is the only thing that is going to get this turbine to spin up.
I think it depends on the volume and aggressiveness of the covering.
{What is happening now is the shorters are leaving.}
Why would any shorter short @ 89 cents unless the Q3 numbers are terrible? If they are leaving I would think that is due the fact that they have covered and are awaiting the next run up to a buck or so. At that time they all pile back in...unless the hypothesis proffered in your second sentence holds true.
{You have often said Capstone will go up after you sell..guess that remains to be seen..but sellers remorse can be frustrating..}
LOL. Just trying to help out the other longs. I'm still in but nowhere near the level that I was. Just too much risk now for me. Seller's remorse I can relate to far too many times; It always seems to me that my instincts are correct but my timing is off.
{Just because they have not announced any sales does not mean there have been none. In theory, they can work on the backlog without getting further behind.}
As answered in "Ask Management" announcements are only made for significant new orders that can have a "material" effect on Capstone's bottom line or something to that effect.
As to the backlog...it is just that, i.e. a backlog of orders that are filled on the customer's schedule, not Capstone's. Orders come and orders can go, there are no guarantees that all orders will result in production and delivery. DJ also mentioned that Capstone Turbines have a poor shelf life due the nature of the air bearing. There is no fundamental reason to produce a high cost product without an invoice. What if no customer requested delivery this quarter? Think about that possibility.
All of foregoing is one reason I believe that a steady stream of new orders and product shipping is vital to the Company's continued growth.
{I see the continued bad publicity over the attack is allowing more problems for the pps. What a wild drop.}
Like I posted very early this morning {The damage has been done, but the fall-out will more than likely continue. I suspect that this story isn't going to go away anytime soon due the sophistication (State Sponsored Level) of the malware.} Taking about scaring customers away... how about investors?
I lightened up some more last week and should have done the same today. This is not good, and as the Capt'n says "the sooner DJ gets something out there the better." I suspect he's going to have a difficult time explaining why "they" ignored the written notice that their site was compromised.
Are there SEC disclosure rules that apply in a situation like this? Granted, company websites are hacked all the time, credit card theft being a good example, but most don't make that information public. This situation is taking on a life of its on with Capstone being cast as the lead.
I'm not flattered at all. You would think that a company such as Capstone would have the tech savvy to keep their web server separate from their in house IT systems. Let's hope that is the case or we may start seeing Capstone Turbine variants at Harbor Freight--free flash light included with coupon.
{But the USA does the same thing. I am thinking of the USA's recent, successful, cyber attack on the Iran nuclear facility.}
Yes, I was going to make the same observation in my last post but I left it to "a Country's infrastructure..." instead. As you know in your referenced posting the Stuxnet cyber-attack was the worm that did the trick on the centrifuges. Stuxnet, among other variants was mentioned in one of the original articles you posted, or perhaps the Symantec overview I posted. The US and Israel were, and I suppose still are, being accused of introducing that piece of work into Iran's enrichment facilities via a high level employee's laptop.
As you imply everything is pure speculation at this point except that the Google Cache indicates that Capstone was infected sometime in September (just about the same time more serious flaws were discovered in Java ) and remained on their system despite being informed about it. Who the heck knows about these things, i.e. layers upon layers of subterfuge, misdirection, etc. in order to cloak the real intent..