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That's all understood. I don't use UVXY or SPXU very often, and when I do, I don't hold long. Four sessions at most.
As for moving the needle to 1495 in the next 8 sessions - your right about it not being a straight line! This could get real choppy - fasten your seatbelts.
I'm off to BOS for 32 hour layover. Get to watch the market all day tomorrow. I don't know if that a good or bad thing!
A320CA
Sting,
5% correction on the S&P is 1474 from here.
I see that as a most likely senario - it's just how fast it happens. I can see the S&P at 1450 by mid-May.
1495 in short order would be good for UVXY, no?
I'm out of my SPXU position today, but I will be looking for an entry again around high 25 or low 26.
BTW, I did add to my EMC long today with profit from SPXU and added 1.5% to a long all equity fund.
You can't be right all the time!
I'm long EMC. This one might even go against the flow here in the next couple of months
Sold 1K@28.50 and 3K@28.40 - All out of SPXU.
Picked up some EMC with the profit. Why this company doesn't move? Great company.
That's how I see it.
Standing pat for now. I have a gut feeling we are going to break 1495 on the S&P. Don't know if I'll hold until then, but if it happens quick....1495 would be wonderful.
I would of sold off yesterday, but I didn't even look at the news until 2:30 pm AZ time, market had closed at 1pm.
Oh well. Let's see how it goes for the next few sessions.
Busy yesterday afternoon - put in a Limit Order of 28.25 as a marker on SPXU - high yesterday was 28.23. Hopefully all are recovering in BOS and they find who did this soon.
Holding on to SPXU for now 3K at 26.55
Anybody else follow this guy?
http://www.perfectstockalert.com/markets/market-analysis.html
Yes - I won't get greedy. Few K at a time.
PHX base with LCC on the A320 - soon to be AMR, probably around September. Takes a while to have all the entities to say yes.
I've played SDS.
I have built up a position on SPXU - 1/3, 1/3, and 1/3. Betting on a correction. Avg. in at 26.55
Let's see if this works. 3K shares fairly large position for me.
Get some rest Doc and call me in the morning!
Boy it's the Doc and Stinger show! Not being sarcastic, it's a little over my head.
Anyways, I feel that the market is getting a little frothy here, so I've decided to not to use UVXY on this correction, or pull back period. Started building a position with SPXU - in 1/3rd position now. If we go up, add my other 1/3rd, etc. If we go down, I won't chase, I'll ride what I have.
Again, using this for 7,8,9% of the account against "traditional holdings". This past Friday, took the UVXY profit and put 50% of that into EMC. Still holding cash, been trimming on the way up. Done really well with LCC ;) - Peter Lynch, TRADE the company you work for.
Doc, I was a little curious as to why you would trade securites anymore. I like trading companies that I see everyday, but I respect your opinion.
This 3X inverse ETF you speak of Doc - SPXU?
Very impressed with the amount of real knowledge - understanding - of how this product actually functions from Doc and Stingray. I myself do not have this deep math knowledge, even though I'm an Airline Captain!
I use this product as a small hedge - around 5,6 or 7% on this particular account, against other holdings.
I do this by GUT really. I look at upcoming news, current market strength, political fights, geo-political situations...etc. UVXY will go down even in down markets - these other guys have pointed that out with their deep understanding of the product.
I've used UXVY only 3 times this year. Build up 3-6K share positions and holding for 3-5 days.
Sold on March 8 for a loss
Sold on March 19 for a gain
Sold on Apri 5 for a gain
All said - up 5.5% on UVXY.
I feel for those who try and figure this product out on a day to day basis. It would drive me nuts!
USE SPARINGLY!!And with extreme caution!
Your forgetting a 6:1 reverse split, followed by a 10:1 reverse split - all last year.
Pennies on the $$ from last spring.
It's was crap shoot - but I held on until this morning.
Sold 5K@8.37. cost basis was - 7.45
More bad news next week, but seems like UVXY can be calm amid lower markets. Others know why, with the futures and all - I just look for short term spikes - 7-8% spikes.
Good Luck to everyone.
7.97 so far for the high today....hold on for one more day - betting on the market not handling a mediocre jobs report well.
All I'm looking for is a hedge. So if the BOJ, ECB, or Fed make any kind of nuance that they will not keep doing what their doing.
UVXY moves forward. There is market sensitive news that is coming, no? $8 a pipe dream. I think not.
I build up positions - very short term - of 4K or 5K shares. I never have a problem selling them at a limit price. Most typically within a few .001.
This ETF is very liquid.
5K shares now at a cost basis of 7.42 - we'll see what the BOJ has to say tomorrow. Short spike, and a sell at just above 8.
Good luck!
Go figure....I've been loading up on TVIX on this past week pretty much thinking that Obama would win the election.
Futures were down to 78 at 12:15am. Now we pretty much know that Obama won the election. Futures at 28 down.
If dividends are going to be taxed at 45%, Business will be given 0% breaks, Partisian politics is ALIVE and WELL in DC.
How do the futures go up with a confirmed, or a given that Obama will win.....seems like we have lots of unresolved issues. Not that Romney could of resolved all of this, but he would of had the House of Rep. on his side.
All this should bode well for TVIX...1.75 by Friday? 2.00 by Friday? Could finally be in the cards.
If this falls off the cliff....direct pun intended....
4.50, 5.25....6.10?
Nice move, not!
All the signals that was reading is that we are still in for a good correction.
This summer I made pretty good coin on the market rolling over in July. I'm looking for the same set up again here. We could be setting up for S&P 1300 or 1275. That should move TVIX. The bets should be coming in and at least holding TVIX steady or slightly up.
Market is rolling over....where's TVIX?
Still going long - few days - on TVIX. Picked up 30K more here to add to my position. I'll keep this on a short leash. Bottom 1.32ish. Betting on more downside....800 down DOW. 1340ish S&P.
This could lift TVIX to 2.30-2.75.
Based on Perfect Stock Alert.....there is still a big correction coming. Any uptick is a shorting opportunity.
This guy Christian has been pretty much spot on. The timing can be off by a few sessions, but nevertheless the trend is right.
Who's hanging in here today at 1.48? Any sellers, buyers?
OK, glad we are having two days off....but, how does the market open?
Hopefully a real bad week...hurricane and all.
Very big bet that things will not go well this week.
I think he meant Dow low 12,000 - I think.
Buying today. 20K@2.23
Buying today. 20K@2.23
Back on the horse I see.
We're out of here tomorrow morning. Sailing in the BVI's.
Only position that I've picked up(bailed on ARUN) is a bit contrarian - ANR - Coal. This one has been kicked down and then punched. We'll see. Might have to wait a bit.
85% Cash at this point. No worries. Hopefully we don't hit the bottom while we're off the grid!
It's all good. Funny thing is that we pretty much called this if we were just a little more patient. For me, I got a greedy and wanted to do one cycle in a rising market. That was the hope, but if you think of it, it's nearly impossible. I was trying to call out a bottom....then a two, three day dead cat bounce and back into TYP in the low 9's. Pretty audacious if I say so myself!
Sitting tight, I did buy some ARUN at the 52wk. low today. Building longer term stuff.
If we do go up a little on FB IPO over the next 2 days I'll be looking at SDS and QID. These are 2x Bears with less decay.
APPL keeps dropping. Don't worry, I'll find that guy when APPL is at $475 in June!! ;)
RLB
Hey LuvIRA's,
What kinda Cutaway acoustic do you have there?
We're set to advance - France and Greece voted to end the austerity(by kicking out the pro-Euro guys). Don't think that bodes too well for the EU. Love some of the spin out there on our jobs numbers, "unemployment is falling", "things are getting better". If you kept the same number of people looking for work from June 2009 - unemployment is at 11%. People have stopped looking for work and are filing for long term disability. More than 5 million people have signed up for Long Term Dis since the beginning of the Obama admin.....gonna be a real tough summer. The focus will be on the EU - now Spain and France.
The thing that I have only seen addressed once is when the EU started tightning the financial system, did the LTRO and restricted lending. The largest clients for the European banks are the emerging markets. These markets were all former colonies of France, Germany, England, Spain. I know it was a long time ago, but there are still ties there and they feed financial support to businesses there. The emerging markets will begin to suffer also.
Could be a pretty bad circle of contraction for the next 6-9 or 1 year. This is Europe's 2008 financial crisis we had.
RLB
Pretty interesting chart on AAPL. We'll see.
Just wondering what the FaceBook IPO will do to this Tech Bear. I'm assuming that FB will be included in TYP - how much weight? Apple's market cap is mid-500's. FB will be around 95B to start, might be another weight on TYP. Or it brings down AAPL even more by funds, individual traders gravitate towards FB. All hypothetical and most likely will not sway TYP that much, but look at how much AAPL swings TYP - add in FB at 1/5th the size. Not too many companies can boast a 100B market cap in an IPO.
My timeline to get out of TYP is 5 weeks - hopefully. We're off on a sailing trip in the BVI's for 2 weeks....NO INTERNET!! NO PHONES!! Makes it a little tough to trade. I'll have to set a some stops and limit orders. If it works out, I'll be out of all three.
Tomorrow should another interesting day.
RLB
Quite the Bull-Bear fight going on. 6-7 months from now I fully expect the S&P to be 1475-1500ish. Are we going to muddle through to get there? Boy they keep pushing this market higher.....earnings are almost over. Let's see tomorrow's jobs report.
The bar was set so low and 75% of companies beat estimates....I think that's weak.
Nice finish, I'll take it. Moved away from your 8.90 support - let's see what Christian has to say later tonight. What did you say, this guy is mostly wrong? He does play the upside also - not just shorts, right?
Off to Seattle. I'll have most of the day to digest news of the market on the ground in SEA, then off to Charlotte, NC. Making big X's across the country.
I'll beep the horn over Montana.
RLB
OUCH! Looks like we'll retest the April 2nd high for the S&P.
Must have patience.
Welcome back Ichauway.
Ever read the AAPL board? Some discouraging words....
I think $475 would be a good spot for AAPL come mid-June. That's encouraging to us!!!
Head fake! AAPL down - finally some of the reports are sinking in. This looks like we'll correct through that small 4% down we had. Maybe 10-15%?
The original thought behind TYP was that the Nasdaq had climbed so far is short order, due to AAPL mostly, but all techs. Generally the sector that rises really fast - will be the first to correct fast.
That's the premise anyway.
This is a good day for us!!