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My log shows a trade of 840,000 shares right after the close at .0318, which is a slight uptick from the closing px of .031. That would indicate a willing buyer.
Can anyone confirm that?
If Seaside was trying to sell "free" shares, someone was quite willing to buy them. Two late trades of 365,000 and 583,000 both at .0315 and then a late bid at .032 for 300,000 more.
I have no idea what's going on, but it is encouraging. Nice total volume today, too....
Interesting day today. My screen showed a bid for 1 MYN shares at .0272 for the last hour or so of trading and the buyer never got much stock. About 160,000 shares I think. And the stock moved up from that bid a little on the close....
We'll see what happens tomorrow.....
Where did you get the idea the AE-37 trial results will be available next month? I did not see that in their latest update. The release says they are preparing for "a lock of the data, after which it will be analyzed...." I do not see anything about when that will be completed and available. It could be well into 2014....
In case anyone is wondering about a quote this morning, according to the NASD "Trading has halted for Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board & Pink Sheet securities due to an industry-wide technical issue. Orders may still be entered; however, they will not execute until the halt is lifted."
You will see there are no quotes available anywhere this morning for OTC BB and Pink Sheet issues.
The whole story about that original approval/disapproval in India is a bit of a foggy picture. Generex made the announcement about the "approval." They never mentioned the "disapproval." That fact was reported by journalist Adam Feurstein of The Street.com after he apparently did some digging around.
Whatever happened, the "approval" period never lasted very long. The stock dropped like a rock when Feurstein's story came out. The product certainly never made it to market in India. Generex actually filed a lawsuit against TheStreet.com over it claiming defamation or something, but the suit was later dropped. All in all, it was a messy business.
In fairness to Generex, that all happened under a previous management team which has since been replaced. My personal opinion is that the current management team has acted more responsibly and at least made attempts to keep stockholders and investors up-to-date on what is actually going on.
I guess Ora-lyn okay in India would be nice, but I don't think it's the key to the success for this stock. I think it's AE-37.
The Yahoo board is almost exclusively bashers and fruitcakes and I hardly ever look at anymore. Most of them don't have a clue what they are talking about and it will drive you crazy to read it. Been that way for years. Maybe 1 out of every 20 or 30 posts is actually interesting or useful.
I have no idea whether AE-37 will ultimately be successful or not but the vaccine is real and the Trial is real. It is discussed frequently on some of the breast cancer support group websites. The participants mention the trial sites, the doctors, their experience with the drug, etc. Todd Falls and the Generex PR team can't make that stuff up.
I don't disagree with any of the facts as you have stated, much of which I recall as well. I don't think Generex has ever actually published the details of its arrangements with Sherya.
I think the point I was trying to make is it is the details of that arrangement which would be crucial to estimating how much an approval in India would actually be worth to Generex financially.
Another factor in the equation which we have not discussed is the weakness in the Indian rupee. I believe it is down about 50% from it's level when that initial approval/reversal occurred. That will make Ora-lyn (or whatever brand name they use in India) much more expensive in $US terms.
I am not a Generex "basher." I own the stock and am a believer in it, just trying to "guesstimate" the factors involved.
If India does give the approval for Ora-lyn in the country, Generex is going to need a partner for that, too. Generex has no capital or resources to manufacture and deliver Ora-lyn in quantity and pay for the sales and marketing expenses. Even with a good strong launch, it takes awhile for positive cash flow to appear.
I would assume they have thought of this already and that Sherya is a likely partner. The question then becomes, "How much does that relationship cost?" Would Generex and Sherya split revenues 50-50? Would it be 40-60? I don't have a clue, but I know it's these kind of details that determine how much approval in India (or any other country) is ultimately worth.
Generex says stated that the results of this Phase II Trial will be published later this year. You'll notice on the Trial website it says the final collection date for data was June 2013. That should mean they are compiling it now.
Assuming the results are favorable (and I have no reason to believe they will not be at this point) the trick is going to be to find a suitable partner for a Phase III Trial. Generex itself has neither the capital nor the resources to conduct such a Trial on its own.
I have always believed---suspected???---that one way to deal with that is to offer the potential partner a share of Antigen Express in return for the necessary funding and assistance. That could also be the way to start the path to a partial spin-off of Antigen Express, which they have stated they plan to do.
If all of this should occur, it would certainly mean a much higher price for the current shares of Generex.
I have looked at the CDSCO website several times and did not find the information you reference, but that does not mean it is not there. It's a rather complicated site. There is a tab for "Import" and another for "Updated List of new Drugs Approved" but I did not see it in either of those.
If you can be more specific as to its exact location, I'm sure we would all appreciate that.
For others who are interested, here is the link to the site:
http://www.cdsco.nic.in/
What was that all about??? Dropped all the way to .026 this morning and then proceeded to climb back up to almost unchanged!! Chart looks like maybe a "washout", but not really enough volume to validate that. Somebody just ran out of patience I guess......
Pfizer tried for awhile and then gave it up. Generex is not making an inhaled insulin. Ora-lyn is a mist spray which is absorbed into the buccal tissue inside the mouth, it does not enter the lungs.
Generex had an appetite suppressant product on the market for awhile for people who were trying to diet. It worked the same way. I bought a package just for the heck of it and tried it. It seemed to work okay and it was not inhaled either.
Almost 3 MYN shares after the close, slightly below the closing price but still up on the day from yesterday. I have noticed a lot of this action lately, someone willing to take the stock in good size several times a week. Hope it is a favorable sign.....
The keys here still seem to be getting a partner for AE-37 Phase III trials and/or Oralyn approval in India.
There is one wild card we haven't heard much about lately, they submitted the final results from the Oralyn Phase III trials here in the U.S. to the FDA in December 2011 and have stated several times they are awaiting guidance from the FDA on what to do next. I wonder how long they have to wait???
Favorable technical behavior today....Made a new short-term low at .0345 early in the day, just below the 50-day MA, then bounced to close up a little at the high for the day. I wish there had been a little more volume, but all in all, a decent performance after the big drop last Friday.
Your price wish is ambitious, at $1.00 per share GNBT would have a market cap of 1/2 BYN or so based on the fully diluted shares potentially available through conversion of preferreds, exercise of warrants, etc. It might not be quite that much as I recall some of the older options/warrants actually have an exercise price still above $1.00, but it would be close.
It is not impossible, of course, but for it to happen I believe we would need at least one of the following scenarios to evolve:
1) Approval of Ora-lyn in India and a workable plan to finance the marketing and distribution of the product in India: or,
2) A Phase III Trial partner for development of AE-37 with some money to finance the effort; or,
3) An unexpected approval of Ora-lyn from some other sources (US and Canada are both possibilities, but I don't know how likely): or,
4) A buy out or takeover offer. It to is always possible but I don't think very likely until one of the above developments has materialized. Big pharma would almost always pay a lot of money for something which has been approved and they believe will be successful than a little money to speculate on the "what if" outcomes.
The one thing which has kept me hopeful through the past several years is their ability of obtain financing at all in the face of many obstacles. Despite all the bashing you read about Seahawk and these other large investors, I think they must see some promise in GNBT. They are not in business to lose money. They are looking to make a lot of money and they must have some reasons to believe it may be at least possible with GNBT.
Well, that certainly was a catharsis today......20M shares and a fractional gain, but it did close over the .04 level, which has been tough. I have no idea where it goes from here...It would be nice if some tipper would pick up on this and start writing some favorable reviews!
I'm still skeptical of the whole Seahawk dumping theory, but I have no evidence to prove otherwise. It just seems to me if I were into any stock in that way in size, I'd want to make some real money. A penney or two gain here and there is not a lot of take to the bank. Even if they got the stock for "free" as some feel, they'll have to pay taxes on any profit, too. I'd be more worried about Seahawk and others if the stock ever gets above the exercise price of some of those warrants and preferreds.
I did see 400K shares print after hours, still above .04.
I found this the most interesting paragraph from the press release:
"The results of this Phase III trial show that Generex Oral-lynâ„¢ more rapidly reduced hemoglobin A1c and was as effective as subcutaneously injected regular insulin at the trial's conclusion establishing non-inferiority. Adverse events were rare and comparable between groups. Generex Oral-lynâ„¢ was shown to be easily used and well-tolerated by patients, and over two thirds of patients preferred Generex Oral-lynâ„¢ to injection."
If you are a believer in the Generex story, the two keys here are the "adverse events were rare" and "over two thirds of patients preferred Generex Ora-lyn to injections."
Yes, I have seen those. I guess they could be called "free shares" although they were issued in return for the service provided (finders's fee, according to the report.) Isn't that about the same as the "free" shares which were paid to officers in lieu of salary? I guess it's a fine point, but it is not like they were just given away for no reason....
I do see that you may be saying the holders can then sell shares received and essentially pocket the money from sales without having to buy shares. I'm not sure they are "free" to the receipient, however. If you receive stock valued at a certain level (here, .03 per share) do you not have to report that in some way as income for tax purposes?
And remember, the warrants issued during these financings do have to be exercised if the holders want to convert them to common, and when they exercise a warrant they pay the issuing company the exercise price. I haven't seen any items on the GNBT income statements indicating cash funds received through the exercise of warrants. Have you seen that?
I am not sure where everyone gets this idea about selling "free shares." The only shares I can find outstanding that might be called "free" are the ones recently issued this summer to executives in lieu of pay, and there aren't that may of those.
If you look through the SEC filings, there are potential common shares to be issued by the conversion of certain preferreds and warrants, but almost all of those have a conversion price far above the current trading price. Some are as high as $1.15 conversion price, ranging all the way down to about$.08. But even that latter number is way above current market.
The most recent fundraising did issue a new preferred convertible into 80,000,000 common at .03 per share. That's a lot of stock, but it strikes me as odd a large investor such as that would be satisfied converting at .03 and selling at .037 or .038. Not much profit there....
If anyone can find those outstanding "free" shares in the company reports, please let me know.
I think the PPS may climb higher next week. The move on Wednesday took out several previous resistance points in the .04-.0425 level. I am somewhat surprised there has been no follow through yet today, but it is a Friday and the selling this morning has been quite contained. There is a lot of other news buffeted this market around as well.
Despite the fact that investors have sort of been conditioned to sell every positive announcement from Generex in the past several years, the news Wednesday was a bit different. It was not the standard cheerleading of a press release but a formal SEC filing. Of course, neither Generex or investors can predict the future, I think we can safely assume that the contents of the SEC filing are accurate and truthful as of this point in time.
To me, that SEC filing would justify a somewhat better PPS.
Basically, they sold a new series of preferred stock to institutional investors convertible into about 80 myn shares of common at .03 per share. In return they got $1.25 myn in cash for working capital, presumably to keep the lights on and pay some salaries for a few more months until something good happens....
It's another potential huge chunk of dilution for stockholders but they don't really care about that right now. They've got to survive until there is some real positive news or some larger firm with some bucks takes an interest....There's a lot of ways to deal with the dilution issue if the stock starts to move.
I don't know how much it means, if anything, but some investor(s) have been willing to absorb a heck of a lot of this stock in the past few days in the .035-.036 range.
I think it's just management strategy to sort of have "all options open." I am not saying I approve of the strategy or anything else these guys do, just that I can see from their perspective they may want to be ready for eventualities.
We'll have to await the announcement of the shareholder meeting results and the vote. Last time they did this, I recall the announcement included a statement something like, "Although shareholders have approved the proposed R/S, management has no immediate plans at this time to implement a R/S." And that was the last we ever heard of it.
It may also have something to do with potential plans they have previously discussed. They have mentioned a "reverse merger" into a "shell corporation" at times in the past as a way to improve the stock price and qualify for an exchange listing. Maybe a R/S would occur in conjunction with such an action. Again, I'm not saying I approve, just trying to deduce the logic in their actions.
Your idea of the R/S ratio might be correct, but I see no point in it right now. That would give them (temporarily) a stock price of about $3.20/share, which is not high enough to meet the listing requirements on most exchanges. Plus the fact that there are many other factors involved in satisfying the requirements for listing, none of which Generex can meet.
I still think this request for shareholder approval of an R/S is just a strategic matter to have available for the longer term. Remember, they had such an approval for all of last year and never did it because the stock price dropped so far. Also, they are asking for approval to double the authorized shares outstanding, which makes no sense in conjunction with a R/S plan.
Where does it get you? You issue another 400 myn ahares and then R/S it? You are right back where you started.
Just to clarify, Ora-lyn is NOT an "inhaled spray." I see this confision all over the place all the time. The company and some others have attempted to clarify, but no one ever seems to pay heed.
Ora-lyn is a bucal spray absorbed through the cheek and inner lining of the mouth. It is not inhaled, it is sprayed into one's cheek and absored by the body. They had a weight-loss spray on the market for awhile which worked the same way and I bought one to see how it worked. The user sprayed it into their cheek inside the mouth, it was not inhaled.
As to the R/S, I still think management is just looking to get it approved pending possible future plans. A meaningful R/S at the current price would be useless. I think the same thinking applies to the request to double the authorized shares. What would be the point of utilizing both approaches, it would get you nowhere.
At the 1-100 R/S ratio everyone seems to talk about, you reduce the shares issued to something like 3.7 million. The price might be $4 or so, but there are other requirements for a meaningful listing which Generex can never satisfy in its current state of affairs.
Thanks, I did notice the volume pattern..Yesterday at 10:00 AM the total vol was about 1 MYN, then by 11:00 AM it had swelled to 7 MYN. That's a lot of stock in one hour! Today on the sudden drop it only did about 1.8 MYN, a lot less.
The key now will be can it crawl back this afternoon and end relatively flat or even up a little on the day. That would be bullish.
Anyone have a clue what happened about 11:45 this morning, all the bids suddenly disappeared and it dropped like a rock for about 30 minutes.
The biggest problem I have with trying to decipher all these "pump and dump" scenarios is the exercise price to the acquire GNBT stock available on all these outstanding converts. options, etc.
As far as I can find, the lowest exercise price outstanding is $.08 per share. This is for the latest $750,000 financing in December. They published an SEC filing last fall covering all the outstanding converts and options (up until the latest December financing.) The exercise price on those tanged from about $.15 up to $1.15 per share.
So please explain to me how you make money exercising an conversion at $.08 per share and then dumping the stock at $.03 or $.04 per share?
BTW, if these options, etc, were being exercised, GNBT would have to report the receipt of the cash for the exercise price in their financial statements. I have never seen such a report of cash received.
So what's really going on?
One million on the bid side at .0325. Let's see if it gets hit and how quickly...
Two blocks of 512K right after the close at .04, not sure if it's a dupe print or two trades.....size is exactly the same, timestamp is different.
After all the fuss and bother this week, we ended right about where we started.
I read the transcript of the CC today and I saw nothing alarming in there. No promises for instant fortunes, but sound progress was evident. I think the big concern for a lot of investors (not the day trippers) is the financing requirements.....they still must get a partner for AE-37 or a sizeable investor to take a stake to keep them afloat until some of the good things can materialize.
I find it interesting that we traded about 42 myn shares going up on Wed and about 49 myn shares going down on Thurs, but....We are still up on the week.
Two blocks of 625K each after the close today, one down at .043 and then one up at .046
The skeptics on this stock are numerous and they do not believe anything, they sell like crazy today because they weren't promised the moon on the CC today, but I still think it is going to go higher.
The real players may be getting interested now. There was a 900K bid at .049 a few minutes ago. So far, the sellers have not been able to get it back where it started the week nor have they broken the 20-day MA to the downside.
Let's see how it closes today.....
If you follow the technicals, there is a good pattern evolving with GNBT. During January it has built itself a nice ascending triangle formation. According to Incredile Charts, "An ascending triangle is formed by equal highs and higher lows. It is a bullish signal, whether encountered in an up- or down-trend. It is most often observed as a continuation pattern in an up-trend but is a strong reversal signal when witnessed in a down-trend."
The stock has also penetrated its 50-day MA to the upside and remained there for a week. This is a very encouraging sign. Let's see if it can make further progress.....
It would be hard to offer a comment without knowing the proposed R/S ratio and the coindicent terms of any spin-out of an interest in Antigen Express.
In any event, I do not think we get those specifics next week. The shareholders' meeting to approve the recap and R/S isn't until March. They may discuss some hypotheticals, but no specific plan.
The resolution for the R/S and recap is nothing new. GNBT had such authority throughout last year until it expired in December and they never did anything. No reasonable opportunity presented itself, I guess. You can't accomplish much with a R/S of a stock selling for .04! I think they just want the "standing authority" in place for the future.
I think GNBT needs the FDA approval of its AE-37 Phase III Trial plan which has been submitted. If they can get that, they have a reasonable case to present to potential partners. Such a partner might be willing to provide necessary cash infusion and technical assistance for the Phase III Trial in return for an interest in Antigen Express.
One thing that has puzzled me for months is why no partner or investor has stepped up with a takeover offer for GNBT. At the surrent price, someone could offer 4-5 times current market value and get the whole company for about $50 myn bucks. That would give a buyer the AE-37 opportunity, Ora-lyn and all their patents for a very cheap cost.
No idea what it may mean, but somebody (or 'bodies) was willing to buy whatever was for sale at .04.....must have been 8 myn shares at that px....note, as slight as it is, that is UP on the day.
We need it to break out above the .043-.045 level and hold there for a few days to confirm an uptrend. The volume should increase as well. The RSI and MFI are both looking good tonight.
It would help if the video interview posted this morning gets some attetnion in the "blogosphere"!
I would agree with the sentiment, but I think any proposal for a spin-out would have to contain specifics. I think it is going to require the vote of current stockholders to approve it, although I confess I do not know the specifics of what the Generex charter says about such actions. It would be a distribution of company assets....
Glad I didn't panic out over the last couple of days.....
The conference call announcement is tantalizing I would think. At a minimum it means GNBT management expects to still be around at the end of the month, sorry bashers, no bankruptcy just yet. The much anticipated spin-off of an interest in Antigen Express is also interesting. If they are really going to do something, there's got to be some value here in GNBT shares.
Several years ago, they claimed to have an "independent evaluation" of Antigen at $300 million. Okay, so that was then and this is now....but maybe it's worth $100 million? Or $50 million? Even at that price, that would be about $.12-.15 per GNBT share without allowing anything for the potential value of Ora-lyn and their patents.....
Just some food for thought.
900M shares on the close at .0346. That's slightly above the official close of .0342....
See my post from yesterday afternoon at 3:48:35 PM....that's the only thing I can think of......No idea if that is really it or not?