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Believe it will be the 22nd.
I've lost a ton (so far) on this. I'm not bitter about it, and it has been a heck of an entertaining ride. Nice to see it recovering a bit and I did buy at bit more at the $4.15-$4.50 range. I assume (with this stock you never know for sure) that European approval next week and potential partnership are driving this up. Would anticipate $5.00 before partnership if the current trend continues. Continuing to hold......
Alexza Status (my take): News has been quiet since the end of December; stock lost ~$1.00 per share (I bought a little in the $4.40 range). Management actively (I assume) looking for partner. Looks like buy-out is unlikely or, it probably would have happened by now. With partnership (1Q, 2013?), European Commission approval (22 Feb) and low cash reserves it should be an interesting 60 days. Based on what I've seen this will continue to drift lower till news is released on Europe or partnership. If they dilute first it will be another (long) stockholder disaster but it could happen. I'm continuing to hold.
Current trend be a prelude to dilution coming soon....Oh joy...
Low volume, no news; ~4% drop versus the usual daily 1%. The Form S-8 was at $4.505. Shorts gloating (with good reason). Can capitulation be far off?
Time to buy more?.....I'm in.
Oh. I forgot the third player in the horse race (the others are dilution and partnership).....Share value...Losing 1%+ per day. I believe "Losing share value" is in the lead coming around the last turn.
I'm thinking it's going to be a race between dilution and partnership.
I think I remember they said they could operate through part of 1Q 2013.....European (EMA) approval ~22 February which could be a plus (although the action after FDA approval makes this doubtful).
The lack of any news (other than putting Buchi on the board) is a bit disconcerting. I was sure they'd have a partnership lined up immediately after FDA decision......but this stock/company continues to find my assessments totally wrong.
Maybe they'll do something unexpectedly positive (for a change).
I have no idea why they dumped 125 K shares. It was a pretty small move on their part (10% of 1.6 M shares) and basically reversed their acquisition of 72 K shares on 27 Dec. (net change of (-)53K shares).
Might be some kind of accounting move...With this stock...who knows?
Looks like Lansdowne Partners Austria GMBH reducing their risk (# of shares) by 10% (125K shares). Still shown holding 1.5M shares on Form 4.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196151&p=irol-sec
LOL. Not a contest I was looking to win. What's with the 200K shares after hours sale?
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/alxa/after-hours
It's usually only 20-30K.
Yeah...I'm an idiot (my words) for hanging in there...and I certainly know better.....I appreciate the sympathy/empathy.
What's Next? Obviously this stock has been a disappointment for anyone who has been in it for more than a year so, this is directed at those of you (like me) still in with significant losses.
Any chance for significant profit?: At this point it's looking grim (or more risky depending on your viewpoint) unless you got in under $5.00. Even with partnership/buyout I'm not sure how much price increase we'd see (I'm at $7.20 by way of full disclosure). Current Analyst estimates are around $7.50 (I think)with some pretty wide variations (~$5.00 - $15.00). Pipeline is pretty (very) weak. I presume the only "carrots" left out there are European approval, partnership, and/or "buy-in" of other drug manufacturers to utilize this technology.
Any chance of losing more?: Probably. Some significant potential for dilution is certainly on the horizon. Price action over the last few weeks certainly does not bode well.
So what's a long (with significant losses) to do?: Most have left (a decision I admire). Some (like me) are still pretty enthusiastic about the technology but significantly disappointed in the stock itself. I think I'll hang on for a bit longer...taking anticipated lumps along the way...GLTA, whatever way you decide to go.
Kind of an interesting back and forth pricing action going on here today, even though the volume is low (113K).
Tax High Frequency Trades. All..sorry to be off topic but I'm starting a petition to tax high frequency trades. If you think this is reasonable please pass this on and sign up at:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/tax-high-frequency-trading-stocks/nVmj29NC
Let's level the playing field.
Yeah not today ...I was thinking of a bit longer term implications?
Any meaningful result of appointing J. Kevin Buchi to Alexza Board of Directors?
Dueling Seeking Alpha Alxa articles. Roth Capital thinks it's 75% chance of FDA approval. Like all these articles, a grain of salt is to be taken daily....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074591-roth-capital-expects-fda-approval-for-alexza-s-adasuve?source=marketwatch
Pre-Holiday Early Decision? You know if I was a Government (FDA) person I'd want to get this done before the Holiday weekend or at least early Friday....Just me...Not saying it's going to happen. Volume today very low. Guess everyone has staked their positions and is hunkering down.
I suspect you are right on the near term price. I anticipate some modest run up to FDA then a drop after approval or, obviously a massive drop if not approved. The reason I've been long on this is the potential for follow-on applications. If approved, I think(although I've certainly been wrong before) there are other drug manufacturers who will be interested in the technology. The question is when any deals might kick in. Does management already have other post approval deals lined up? I would. So a potential timeline might be approval (big if) in December, price run down post approval and then potential partnering agreements announced in the January, February timeframe? With approval, I think I'll hang on to my shares till Jan/Feb at least and ride out the post approval price drop anticipating follow-on deals in January or February(+). Fair Disclosure: I've gotten my ass kicked on this stock.
Added to the factoid that nothing has ever been straight forward for this stock....
Now it's going to get really interesting for the next week: EU approval today, 21 Dec FDA decision, high percentage (~16%) short, low float....One heck of a ride...and it's not over yet.
Any approval a good one....LOL.
You think Tom went over there (Europe)to get some golf in knowing it might be his last trip to Europe on Alxa's $ after EU rejection? LOL. ....I really would like to see EU approval to see what the stock price does between then and FDA decision. I'm loving these dueling Seeking Alpha articles too....Let ALXA chaos reign!
Wow...Jason N really does not like the chances for this stock....Two negative SA articles in less than a week (very unusual for him). Well...I guess I've been warned. I respect his opinion (contributed twice to his beer fund!) but...going to hang with this one....Don't follow me though. VERY high risk. Two or three days to European decision....21st for FDA. Heck of a ride.....
Should be an interesting day for Alxa in any case....
I was too tied up to listen in but, I saw some decent notes on the Yahoo message board. Nothing earth shattering. The usual good science. Wish I had more funds to buy some larger share volume right now but, for now just buying small allotments as I can afford them.
Just an extension as far as I can tell....
Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. submitted an application under Rule 24b-2 requesting an extension of a previous grant of confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 10-K filed on March 17, 2008.
CT 121230984.....Another Alxa surprise????
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196151&p=irol-sec
Very kind of you. Thanks for the link.
Thanks for the post. Do you know if some or any of this will be posted or on-line?
Indications are they will receive European approval (or disapproval, depending on your personal theory) 15 December after the Dec 10-14 meeting. So, if approval (or disapproval) happens on the 15th the run (up/down) to FDA meeting 21 December should prove quite interesting......and this stock has been a very interesting ride.
Nice: ALxa Receives Updated Day 180 List of Outstanding Issues
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=196151&p=irol-news&nyo=0
Reach2HD sounded in the okay to good range to me too. I think it was possibly off set (in a pretty big way) by NYT article and (possibly) some locking in losses. Really can't account for the magnitude of the losses though.....Seems like a heck of a buy (even with associated risks) at these prices.
Ehhh....Think I'll buy more next week.
Great post. Good information on the webcast.
Guess I should have waited to buy till today!...or later...
Bought just a tiny bit more at $4.85. Kind of a wild swing yesterday on no news.???
Quiet...too quiet...Another ALXA surprise in the works for the 06 Nov. report? Hope it's a treat instead of a trick. I'm sure it will be an interesting 60 days for us ALXA investors.
Hope you are all safe on Eastern seaboard.
At this point I'd be happy with break-even....7.50
Definitely taking a beating here on personal investment portfolio.....As usual. Got in on my 401K at 3.40 so still making a bit there....
Run-down..I thought it was run-up to PDUFA? Oh well, only 30 more days to wait (for PDUFA)...one way or another....And, it's not looking too good right now given this stock's history. Ehhhh...hanging in with this one anyway.