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from yahoo...
24 WEEKS... 100's of MILLIONS... BTD... 2 INDICATIONS... can you say BUY OUT!! Gotta Read
ClinicalTrials.gov has Janssen's trial filing.
Primary Outcome Measures have a 24 W E E K S timeline.
24 W E E K S!!!!!!
24 Weeks!!!
What does this tell you?
Shorts know... that is why they have been covering. That's right... short interest reduced to 24 million as of 4/15.
Why? Well, why did Janssen plan for such a short Primary Outcome Measure window? Because the Drug WORKS... Because they are EAGER to get it to market... because they want data to apply for BTD status asap... They are going to eat INCY's lunch.
And, what does this do to Geron pps...?
100's of MILLIONS in Milestone Payments...
Trial #2 starting at the end of the year...
Royalty payments on top of Milestone Payments in 2016...
More astounding results...
Can You Say BUYOUT?
And, what happens if the company gets bought out? Well, ask the Shorts!!!! They know. They know that every single share whether legally short or naked short will have to be bought and repaid. AND, this is why there are so many on the board today. They know their short investment is in the crapper.
Shorts are #&@$ed. Royally. And they are trying to scam you out of your shares as cheaply as they can.
Combine their efforts with the fact that the Market is tanking and Bio Tech is leading the market, and you have them out in droves to beat on the board.
Ignore them and smile. BTD is coming. BUYOUT at a much higher price is coming. Chippy is not here to build a company folks. AND, keep rooting for AST and BTX. Gern gets a %... and when J&J buys out Geron, they will have to pay for that % as well. I don't think we are going to see $200.00 per share... I do believe we are going much higher than we are today within several months.
Hold your shares and laugh at the shorts on the board. They aren't laughing... I can assure you that!
Recent price declines of the past few days...
...was all fictitious reality created by those who are short or who want to accumulate...
so they could buy for less...
anyone who was emotionally effected by the price downturn or sold, should take note at how Geron is manipulated heavily...
HOLD through and buy dips, in my opinion
OR give them your future gains...
Well maybe they will cover some of their short
It is getting harder and harder for them to screw with Geron...
Some days you just have to let them have at it, and fight another day...
In the end, longs will win, in my opinion...
Hey subs...
It is immoral, but don't think it is illegal.
Actually a good sign that they have to revert to such tactics. They would not be doing them if they did not want to cover a short, or accumulate stock...
...so either way, good for us...
All the sleazes in the world can not stop Geron at this point,
Even better is what they eluded to in that rec...
Their words,
candidate has a "paradigm-changing potential"
'nuff said...
Interesting post from yahoo, from a woman whose husband is involved in Trial and is doing amazingly...
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Springtime for Imetelstat
Important and new aspects of presentation now publically announced. One would expect other details to follow as Janssen steps into place:
1. IND/clinical trial transfer complete.
2. Janssen in charge of all things Imetelstat.
3. Imetelstat testing in other indications.
Inferred from slide chronologies: Mayo MF IST on-going 2 years March/April 13-15. What started as a little dosage and toxicity study morphed into an efficacy trial.
Yes, John needs to get back on Imetelstat to regain his PR/CR. He will.
We believe in Imetelstat.
Hey Subs,
Yeah it is always nicer to see it up but I really don't think it has started to reflect the value here...
The PPS is severely played with GERN, in my opinion.
An analogy for me with the current PPS price...
...it's like having a brick of Gold, and one day it is painted red, then it is painted more yellowish and we all say "look, it's getting to be closer to Gold color"...
...but it is still just paint...
The Gold in here, the value in Geron has yet to be properly represented in the equity or public, in my opinion...
Many years ago, people may have quibbled if they paid $10 or $12 for a share of Apple.
Today I think anyone who would have purchased the stock would be happy, and the exact price the paid would probably have been forgotten...
...it is not the price of your shares purchased that will be of future concern, but how many did you buy and hold on to, in my opinion...
Excellent, another Form 4, showing shares being Acquired...
Speculating here, but from my experience, particularly with Bio's, when you start to see the Form 4's coming, for Acquiring shares, it is because they are loading up...
...for a reason..!
Thanks for the 26 day old news Rich...
No bio, I have no idea.
The way I read it was he exercised some options and Acquired them as opposed to Disposing of them. Which I read as a good sign.
I'm a long here, very long.
Ibrutinib is an irreversible small-molecule inhibitor of BTK activity. The agent works by blocking B-cell activation and signaling, which prevents the growth of malignant B cells that overexpress BTK. In general, BTK overexpression is abundant in B-cell malignancies, making this agent an effective treatment for many types of blood cancer.
12/08/2011 - pcyc & jnj have entered into a worldwide 50/50 profit-loss agreement, sharing development and commercialization activities
11/12/2013 - FDA has granted an accelerated approval to ibrutinib (Imbruvica) as a treatment for patients with mantle cell lymphoma
02/11/2014 - FDA has expanded the approval of ibrutinib (Imbruvica) to include the treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)
03/02/2015 - AbbVie acquires pcyc for $21 billion
the pcyc scenario is three years ahead of the geron scenario. but the scenarios are essentially the same.
2016 imetelstat receives FDA approval for MF
2017 imetelstat receives FDA approval for AML
2017 geron acquired for $25 billion or $160/share
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scistats - apparently jNj thought they had this one in the bag, but clearly jNj was caught with their pants down.
so what about grn163L? because this cash-bearing vein is too rich for prospectors to pass up! is jNj going to cut all other suitors off at the pass?
well, this is where salesman scarlett shows his worth.
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pcyc shares = 76 million : gern shares = 157 million
so pcyc @ $261 ÷ 2 = $130 per gern share
*assumption imetelstat w/FDA approval
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November 13, 2014
"By leveraging Janssen's ability to fully integrate and strategically align global oncology development and commercialization, we expect this collaboration to expand the development of imetelstat across a range of hematologic malignancies and potentially increase the speed with which imetelstat can be made available to patients with these serious, life-threatening diseases," said Dr. John Scarlett, Geron's President and Chief Executive Officer.
There is some definitely interesting things brewing here, at least that is what I am seeing and feeling...
The MM's have been trying to get the price down below $4.00 so the options expire, at least that is my understanding (not a trader really)...
...and they do not seem to be able to hold it down.
I get the feeling that as time goes, the manipulators are losing control of the PPS action.
Plus there just seems to be too much smoke coming up, and they do not seem in any need to share the information.
To me this denotes great confidence, and that this is for real.
When things are big like this, you are very cautious not to screw it up...
Some other little tidbits I am getting from other boards as well;
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grn163L is able to return some patients to health in some cancers (i.e., MF, AML, ET, PV, etc.)
it has been shown by the mayo clinic when administering grn163L that some patients' cancers go into remission.
the next step for imetelstat is FDA approval and to achieve this dr scarlett has signed on with jNj.
janssen will be able to ascertain the gene mutation(s) common to a basket of cancers in which grn163L is effective.
so ... in the not too distant future, some cancers will yield a rather large sum of cash to GERN investors!
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"(grn163L) works on some patients." this statement is true.
the above quoted statement is true because NOT ALL patients' cancers involve the same gene mutation(s). so, even though a group of patients may be diagnosed with the same cancer (i.e., MF) the underlying mutation(s) that caused their MF may not involve (and probably will not involve) the same mutation(s).
identifying the mutation(s) in which grn163L is efficacious is key and this is why chip signed on with jNj because johnson & johnson has the resources to do just that—to find those mutations that will allow grn163L to become a pan cancer drug.
what this means is that grn163L will work on a "basket" of cancers with the same mutation(s) ... NOT ALL patients with cancer.
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if grn163L works...and the mayo says it does.
then we're looking at a pan cancer drug that will be applied to a "basket" of cancers based on certain gene mutations. to root out these specific mutations dr scarlett had to signup with jNj which has the money and man power to do this work. this work may take a couple of years but jNj will most likely receive FDA approval in less time.
with an FDA approved pan cancer drug geron's value will surpass pcyc's value by billions of dollars. with 157 million shares outstanding geron's share price will fetch a minimum of $150.
does it work?
the mayo says it does!
and this is why GERN will be $150/share in 2017!!!
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mutations ... this is what it is all about and this is why geron had to hook up with jNj.
johnson and johnson will be able to "fine tune" the patient selection process and isolate specific "mutations" where grn163L is most efficacious.
this will result in a speedy and certain FDA approval process.
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"WE PROPOSE THAT INTERPRETIVE STRATEGIES CONSIDERING BOTH CELLULAR AND GENOMIC CONTEXT OF MUTATIONS WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE RATIONALE FOR TREATMENT DECISIONS."
interpretive strategies involving cellular & genomic mutations is a where jNj's expertise will shine brightly.
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JAMA Oncol. Published online March 12, 2015
Mutations and other somatic genomic abnormalities are commonly used to inform treatment decisions. Such molecularly based personalized treatment strategies were until recently limited to an assortment of rare tumor types or molecularly defined subtypes of common cancers.
Lately, these strategies have expanded to other tumor types, in particular lung cancer and melanoma.
Although the approach to genomic-based treatment decisions has been broadly embraced, provision of a targeted agent to a patient whose cancer harbors the genomic target rarely leads to cure, and sometimes responses are incomplete.
Also, opportunity costs for patients and the expenses of ineffective treatments are great; therefore, improvements are needed in the effective clinical use of mutation data.
Although patients do benefit from today’s approach to interpreting mutation data, WE PROPOSE THAT INTERPRETIVE STRATEGIES CONSIDERING BOTH CELLULAR AND GENOMIC CONTEXT OF MUTATIONS WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE RATIONALE FOR TREATMENT DECISIONS.
Cellular context accounts for histologic etiology and how cell type–specific differences in cellular signaling impact treatment success.
Genomic context includes 3 distinct considerations: (1) clonal diversity of cancer cell populations and resulting evolution induced by treatment, (2) the presence of resistance mutations or other genomic features that preclude effective targeting of a mutation treatment efficacy barriers), and (3) the driver or activation status of the mutation at the time of treatment.
I have often thought that with Geron's number of Patents, and the content of their Patents, that there was possible value here that would be hard to imagine...
Read this and found it interesting;
"(grn163L) works on some patients." this statement is true.
the above quoted statement is true because NOT ALL patients' cancers involve the same gene mutation(s). so, even though a group of patients may be diagnosed with the same cancer (i.e., MF) the underlying mutation(s) that caused their MF may not involve (and probably will not involve) the same mutation(s).
identifying the mutation(s) in which grn163L is efficacious is key and this is why chip signed on with jNj because johnson & johnson has the resources to do just that—to find those mutations that will allow grn163L to become a pan cancer drug.
what this means is that grn163L will work on a "basket" of cancers with the same mutation(s) ... NOT ALL patients with cancer."
So the potential is enormous...
Then my mind wanders when I think that this is just one side of their basic research with telomers...
The side we are on now is the DECREASING side, the cancer work is for limiting the replication of cells so that they die off...
But the same applies on the other side, for increasing the replication of cells...
That is the virtual Fountain of Life, and I think it might be worth something as well...
Whether we commercialize on that here remains to be seen...
It seems Scarlett is confident enough to cash in some Options at $4.34
Good...
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=65887339&symbol=GERN
Told ya...
This is a hard stock to trade...
Something is behind this...
Nice to see though...
Cheers everyone
From what I am hearing, it should be a good night...
Expecting a very healthy pre-market tomorrow...
Update
John had compressive blood panel on 11/22 - 4 months after he temporarily and of his own volition stopped infusing IMET to self-test how durable IMET really is and because we have utmost confidence he can hold out until he can infuse closer to home. So - a man with refractory, intermediate high risk, complex karotype, advanced, terminal MF with a 1-2 year prognosis at start of the endless Phase I IST Cohort One Arm B trial ( 20 months ago) is on NO medication/treatment whatsoever and the IMET response is still durable. There has been some very slow blood chemistry deterioration but nothing severe. Prior to IMET, the severe disease deterioration was very rapid and nothing was working. Today, John is happy, healthy, and just fought off a flu that would have likely killed him pre-IMET. His bone marrow that was cleared of fibrosis seems to be holding its own for now. We had free tickets to ASH to cheer on Dr. Tefferi but my work timing is not great (end of semester) and John did not want to go alone. However, Dr. Tefferi will hear us cheering wherever we are on 12/8!!!! Other IMET patients will be in the audience. You will not be able to even tell who they are because they look perfectly healthy now. John will need infusions again to stay healthy but he Is now "beyond Imetelstat". All is merry and bright.
yahoo...
IMET 33
All I can say is too bad for INCY that the IMET 33 kept infusing and some now exceed life expectancy. Under new IWG standards Phase III criteria is met!!! Phase II endpoint - positive impact on disease progression - was established long ago. So what we currently have here is essentially a de facto Phase II/III study with only trivial side effects. Two points: 1) under new IWG criteria Jakafi would have never made it out of Phase I. 2) Read the FDA approved Jakafi side effects listed on label as example of truly toxic drug. I will give a shamrock to 1st person who correctly posts all Jakafi side effects in full as separate topic.
I think the closer we get to IMET breakthrough and breakout, the louder the background noise. Anyone who thinks Imetelstat that has reported unprecedented CR PR CI in terminal illness with only palliative alternatives at best (looking at you Jakafi!) and halted disease progression in patients who are now past life expectancy will take 3 years to develop has not read the FDA rules. Anyone who thinks an SA article is going to make one iota of difference when the scientific results are announced most likely reads the MPN forum only. Imetelstat won a time ago when the IMET 33 kept infusing, got better, and did not die. Sometimes silence speaks volumes.
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I am very glad john is doing so well. Unfortunately, a proof of concept phase 1 study can not be fudged into submission data. It was not designed or powered to provide pivotal data/results, the FDA requires set endpoints that are laid out in advance so they can say, yes you met, or no you did not meet pre-specified endpoints. There are exceptions of course, unfortunately we don't fall into those exceptions since there is an approved drug in that space already. Im just taking the objective approach, that's the way the FDA thinks
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" there is an approved drug in this space already" Gerney lets objectively not forget how low the bar was set for that FDA approved drug. No statistical significance for survival but using a "comfort" endpoint they are expanding their indications. INCY has pretty well given themselves approval for their NDA wrt PV this Dec. Seems to me if your in bed with the right people and influence enough regulators on the review committee you can get approval & sell anything, toxicity bar none.
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Seems stuff is percolating...
JNJ Now Controls IMET (Tranformational Drug); One day the PPS will surprise us, on the upside (quick summary)
The story, as told at the Piper Jaffray Conference, was that Janssen Biotech-JNJ, realized early in the game (shortly after ASH 2013 revelations) that IMET was a remarkable medicine, that was going to change cancer treatment, and would be associated with cures (tantamount to a cure). Everything was thrown off schedule by the surprising- low-level-FDA-liver-holds (now gone). There was no bidding, because JNJ and Geron were working closely together (in secrecy), and a deal was being actively negotiated through most of 2014 . ASH 2014 will bring us 5 papers concerning IMET (present and future potential). Dr. Tefferi will present on Dec. 8.
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We are about to learn much from ASH about IMET (5 important papers). Dr. Tefferi's paper will draw the most interest, particularly since he has positions at both Mayo Clinic and Geron (Monday). The choice of a strong and established oncology company as a partner (Janssen Biotech/JNJ) was partly his. I think you are correct about the "buy of a lifetime. The time has come to find out (ASH 2014).
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"News Out! Geron Announces Publication of Preclinical Data on Imetelstat Activity in Acute Myelogenous Leukemia"
It seems that there is some serious Public Relations going on to drive the PPS higher, with all the good news being released at the same time, and with ASH at our doorsteps. There finally seems to be a strategy to protect investors from hedge fund manipulations.
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interesting yahoo postings
Imetelstat breakthrough shows promise for AML patients
World wide support coming in for Imetelstat for preventing relapse post chemotherapy.
A researcher funded by the Leukaemia Foundation of Queensland, Dr Steven Lane, has been exploring Imetelstat that looks to be highly effective against acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and may prevent patients relapsing.
from yahoo board...
Summary of the Piper Jaffray conference
This was a nice format, fireside-type discussion with Chip and Piper analyst:
-Four sources of value creation for 2014:
1. Profound activity of the drug at the end of 2013
2. Off of clinical hold - based on strong data presented to FDA
3. Janssen partnership
4. Transfer of IND from Mayo Clinic to Geron
It was apparent in the discussion that Janssen pursued Geron. Janssen sees the drug as transformational and while other companies and PI's showed strong interest, it was clear that Janssen sees the potential. Janssen has an oncology group that is 10x the size of Geron - so 450 cancer scientists and doctors waiting to get underneath the covers here. Overall the sheer power of Janssen with 35k people, a substantial presence in key malignancies and a strong hematology and oncology presence make them the perfect partner.
THESE TWO THINGS ARE IMPORTANT:
- Both sides were surprised they could move forward on the basis of 22 people in the study, based on such a small data set. "Janssen is VERY, VERY positive about the data." My read: Everyone is so shocked by the results - complete remission, partial remission and clinical improvements - they believe they have found a cure for cancer.
- The first part of the deal is for $35m, and Chip added, "and a continuation, part of the up front payment, will take it into triple digits." I had not heard that before, thinking that after the $35m they wouldn't see the next big payment until mid-2015 when the next trial is targeted to begin. Sounds like this other $65m comes sooner.
FINALLY:
Chip was encouraging about the 2 presentations and 3 papers being presented at ASH. Earlier in the talk he mentioned that Dr. Tefferi would be making an MDS presentation at an as-yet-to-be-determined medical conference in 2015. He seemed to allude to something more in that.
_____
From an investment standpoint I think this is a two to three year hold with a substantial upside
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The surprise was that Janssen Biotech-JNJ chose Imetelstat (IMET) as a "must-have" medicine, and that JNJ was so aggressive in pursuing Geron (since early in 2014). From what I heard, and from what you say, JNJ was "shocked" at the effectiveness and potential of this drug. The term "Tantamount to a Cure" (originated by Mayo Clinic) seems to mean just that: IMET can cure cancer. There may be limitations, since it does not seem to work for everyone, but that is a subject for genetic studies and research. JNJ believes in the curative properties of IMET, and they are supporting that with everything that they have. ASH presentations will add to this trend.
The team (Geron, Mayo Clinic, Janssen Biotech-JNJ) is strikingly strong in oncology human resources, and very deep pockets. IMET will be available to needy patients, and go in many research directions. The words "cancer", "cure" and "Imetelstat" now are connected.
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"The surprise was that Janssen Biotech-JNJ chose Imetelstat (IMET) as a "must-have" medicine."
JNJ is the future.
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The Piper Jaffray question and answer session is on the Geron website (Drs. Scarlett & Duncan). Investors should listen carefully. It is very encouraging. Jannsen-JNJ pursued Geron for most of 2014. No one else had a chance. This is a powerful endorsement of IMET. ASH will detail IMET.
Some Key Subjects:
1. Profound Results
2. Complete Remissions
3. IND Transfer
4. Investigation Side
5. Partner Side
6. Coming off of Surprise Hold
7. Jannsen-JNJ #1 in Oncology
8. 5 important Papers at ASH about IMET
9. Collaboration and Licensing Agreements with Jannsen-JNJ
10. $5 Dollar PPS (Dr. Duncan)--Immediate Target
11. Solid Tumors beyond MF
A giving of Thanks from a woman whose husband is in the treatment program.
Thanksgiving seems the best time to express our appreciation for "longs" faithful investment in the future good. You kept Geron alive "long" enough to keep John and others alive today. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families.
Happy Thanksgiving
5 reasons GERN is the best buy in the stock market today.
Shorted GERN shares are now over 40 million.
Johnson and Johnson have seen the ASH 2014 GERN data and throw $1 billion at GERN.
Mayo Clinic says GERN's cancer drug effectiveness is unprecedented.
The FDA has given GERN the green light for GERN's drug.
GERN has $175 million in the bank worth $1.50 of GERN's stock price.
Hey Crawford,
Yeah, I think I agree with you.
The PPS play right now is influenced by the hedgies, MM's etc...to help the Shorts unload, and help some accumulate...
And they still have the power to do so at this point.
The hedgies and MM's know the trading game well, better than most traders...
...they know people will be looking to trade the channels and other such trading strategies...
...so if they know what many will do under normal trading circumstances, then they can take advantage of them, being they still hold the power...
Some have made money trading GERN, but most have lost money trading it.
If you think the science is real, and you are still trading...you must be very sure of yourself, I would say...
"They are trying to get rid off as many small investors as possible."
Bingo..!
That is why we did not get a larger spike on this incredible news, in my opinion. They are allowing it to rise incrementally, so they hit all sell points.
The manipulators/hedgies/mm's will not be able to do this very much longer, but are trying to assist short positions here, and any who are accumulating.
Should be very interesting today...
Good post from Yahoo, I hope he is correct,
"Out of....
.............all the data presented in the Slides
Your physician and Myelofibrosis patients would key in on this.
**Median time to onset of CR or PR was 2.8 MONTHS (range 1.4 –3.0)**
This is most Salient and absolutely "Astounds" From a very sick and terminally ill patient to CR or PR in three months.
With the knowledge Geron/Jennsen have gained about the biological markers present in those who responded to Imetestat….. data relevant to CRs and PRs will be forthcoming three months or less, post infusion commencement, in the new upcoming Phase II trials. I can barely wait to see that data.
Dr. Scarlett was absolutely correct in saying this is Bigger than all of us.
Dr. Tefferi was sincere in saying Oncology physicians do not want to alleviate night sweats they want to reverse and hopefully cure Cancer. "
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exactly!! John went from terminal to remission in approximately 8 weeks with no nasty chemo side effects - no hair loss, nausea, weakness (neutropenia quickly resolved). In fact got healthier very fast. Also, did you notice the slide that indicated under "continuation" study tab Phase III MF study that J&J will make "decision" on as soon as all day reported (read: ASH?). If I am reading the information correctly.
from yahoo
What the Stieffel slides tell us
What's new is old but confirmed in a strong way. A 40% (!!!) response: CR + PR + CI. Over half of these are CR + PR. NEVER before described (except in prev Imetelstat studies) in the history of medicine. Period. Once we see what the other 33 patients show, if confirmatory we will know even more. My guess is that doseing will be modified patient by patient in the future to further lessen the toxicity even more and improve LE. I also expect some hints as to drug's possible effect on LE but this will not be spelled out. The MDS study should include PV and ET patients although Gern says they are not developing for this indication. Just a guess here but by mid 2015 maybe the inability of Jakafi to live up to expectations may be realized allowing Jakafi failures to enter the MDS study as so many Jakafi failures have already found their way to Imetelstat. If Irish and John go to ASH so will other patients and the ripple effects of this kind of information distribution when it happens can be not be underestimated.
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Some info from Yahoo board. In my opinion, from what I am gathering, there are a lot more to these results than first considered.
It is my opinion that we will be demonstrably pleased to the Upside once we hear the talk at Stiffel. and as we go and more data points come out, with context and background.
here are some interesting posts, one of which is from a woman whose spouse is under going the treatment and has had incredible results...
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22.7% remission rate
Per the presentation material for Stifel. That is really amazing for a cancer drug!
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n Phase 1 safety trial nonetheless. (Although Taz has said he believes this to be Phase I/II)
Even 1 Remission would have been unprecedented.
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Yes! And the type of remissions - fibrotic and cytogenetic - are even more amazing. Also, IMT achieved in a random sample of MF patients. What if targeted same with 100% remission in MF marker affecting 40-50% of patients? What if most refractory or genetically high risk patients. The partnership details important. The science details also important IMO. Will be best available therapy soon in this and other indications.
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Monsomal Karotype
While waiting for investors to catch up with breakthrough science, consider the new prognosis data regarding monosomal karotype in ASH abstract 631. There is also good mutational and remission data in Dr. Tefferi's Imetelstat paper.
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LOL, they make sure it closes under 3 huh
Guess it will take a while to work out the manipulation...
Imagine when these markets were not rigged, what a glorious day that was I bet...
Interesting post from yahoo,
This Deal With JNJ,
There are very few deals made by any large pharma this early when even Ph 2 hasn't even started, and especially when the FDA hold lasted as long as 8 months for a real reason only the FDA inner circle would know, is a matter of great significance.
It is a sure sign of JNJ seeing a credible and bright future of IMET. The deal by itself, especially looking at the early timing, is not bad in terms of the cash Geron will get to spend on the remainder of the licensing activity and then from post-license commercial sale of the drug. One should not forget that a company like JNJ has on its boards highly qualified experts in both technological/medical and management fields who must be far more experienced and smarter than Scarlett or Huh. For these people to jump into this deal this early is a strong indication in itself that IMET is a formidable drug that JNJ did not want to loose to its competitors. And, hence, the expediency.
Geron management also wisely chose an American company than choosing an outfit from Israel or China or even a EU country. My guess is that that is what the FDA and Tefferi wanted.
To me thus, despite my reservations in the past w.r.t. to sincerity of Scarlett-Huh team and even rest of the Geron board, they deserve compliments for the wise and timely action they have taken in getting the deal.
I see much smoother sailing from now on in the march of IMET to the veins of dying patients all over the globe. Of course, those who invested in Geron common will be the beneficiary because the Geron management stayed away from other financial vehicles like preferred shares or such other commercial papers to take away rights of holders of common shares.
All in all, I see my investment in Geron coming to a pleasant end while patients dying of serious hematologic cancers will have a chance to live longer. And, America will be the home of yet another formidable product that the world will remember it for, like the light bulb and iphone or internet.
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Well put. Also, JNJ was doing its DD when there was NO assurance that the FDA hold would be lifted anytime soon.
Of all the opportunities in oncology out there (e.g. RNN and many others), why would JNJ want to take on something that has "regulatory risks" written all over it?
I think the ASH presentation by Dr. T in December will throw some light on what JNJ saw in the proprietary data and info provided to JNJ.
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JNJ is not stupid. They must have reviewed all what Tefferi did and the early lab data and ET/PV trial data before deciding internally to grab the Geron product. My guess is that the deal had been shaping up well before the FDA placed the hold and Geron management waited till hold was lifted to optimize its share of the deal. For a multi-billion company like JNJ, giving away a few hundred million more to clinch the deal before its competitors get their hands on was a smart move also.
PCYC signed the same kind of deal with J&J in 2011
Check out the PCYC chart since 2011. Easiest money you'll ever make. Anybody who is still short this stock is playing at suicide. Good luck, shorty. Cover while you can.
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Certainly has similarity. Just checked out financials year over year Very impressive. For long timers. They are bigger every year. Seems J and J take good care of their partners. Peace.
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So, as of today, GERN has about 2 times the amount of outstanding shares out as PCYC. Do you think it is reasonable to assume, then, that GERN would reach half the highs (around $150) that PCYC did in those three years? If so, then that's around $75 a share at some point, if all the trials are positive and there aren't any insurmountable hurdles to overcome (production problems, FDA holds, etc). Or is my non-math-mind wrong here?
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What I found interesting is that on the day before the deal was announced the closing price for PCYC was $14.62 on 600K volume. The following day, after announcement of deal, the stock plummeted down over $2.00 to close at 12.39. So I can imagine longs on that day cursing the deal as being the worst possible deal and probably threatening lawsuits. It took until December 16, 2011 for the stock to recover and since then- well, look at the chart.
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And by year end it was up another 65% to $25
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Thanks for that reminder, eme1million! I have also seen this kind of price action with other biotechs the day of good news.
I buy and hold, but I am sure many people are hurt badly by the counter-intuitive moves of the market.
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another example is ECYT. I' d say in 2 years GERN will be trading in high 30's just like ECYT did when they first announced $1 billion deal with Merk back in 2012. And if everything goes well with the trial then I belive we have another PCYC in here.
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erne,
"took until Dec 2011"
So when was the deal announced ?
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This data is all available on Google, you know!
It was December 8, 2011. So the point is that 8 days of shorting around was followed by a non-stop rocket launch.
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Unlike PCYC, GERN gets 20% of revenues, not profits. That's a good thing, as revenues are always profits. Also, by the time GERN gets that far, it will presumably have pocketed up to $935M in milestone bonuses from JNJ as well. Also not bad, at least in the mid-term.
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Good point. One minor difference between PCYC and GERN partnership deals: I believe PCYC was a 50-50 split of profits; GERN deal is 20-80 split of revenues. Not sure how that plays out vs. PCYC deal.
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the difference being between revenue, which includes costs and profits, which is after costs (net)?
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figured there had to be a missing symbol or word there. from what i googled, revenues include costs but profits dont. so GERN would be getting a percentage before costs are netted out. so if revenues of Imet come in at 3 billion, take out marketing, manufacture, etc., and profit might be 2.5 billion. id imagine, though, that over time, costs would come down and that would favor johnson.
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Right...well...I did google it myself and present day, GERN has about 2.1X the amount of outstanding shares PCYC has. I don't know whether they had less outstanding three years ago, but it makes sense they wouldnt have diluted once they inked the deal with J&J AND their pps started to appreciate rapidly. That all being said, worst case scenario (in the best case scenario, meaning all trials go as hoped and there aren't any major hurdles like the HOLD) GERN sees half the highs PCYC, which would put them at around $75 as share.
Thoughts on Valuation from another board
As Scarlett pointed out in the conference call yesterday, the upfront $32M will cover Geron's share of the trial cost....other milestones payments are expected to cover their cost down the road. As per Scarlett, "if all goes as planned" he sees no need for further dilution of equity.
As far as valuation, I like the comparisons with companies with lesser drugs than Imetelstat (all other companies at this point as Imetelstat is king) who have gone on to commercial success. For example, see Matija Snuderl's post on a company called Agios (AGIO) on 14Nov at 1:06 PM against Seeking Alpha article titled: "Geron wins deal to develop blood disorder drug, could get $935M":
Agios (AGIO) has one drug for hematogical malignancy progressing through early clinical trial and marketCap is mind blowing $3 bil. GERN has imetelstat progressing through and seems the drug is quite efficient, market cap ~3oo mil. So you know what is the potential after shorters get pushed out, 10x."
I also like the comparison with another similar company (PCYC) that did a deal with J&J recently. See discussion by shinobirastafari 13Nov, 9:23pm and others, posted against SA article titled "Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends":
"...PCYC was already in the middle of Phase II when the deal got announced, and was already trading at $12. They are now trading at $137.
Interesting take, from yahoo board...
Stick with the Facts.
Longs should gird their loins as the shorts will be spinning overtime trying to steel your shares or at least keep you from adding while they begin to cover. They will try to somehow convince you that Geron partnering with perhaps the most powerful health/pharmaceuticals company on the planet is a tragedy and that of all the overblown stocks in the world this financially sound company with a novel cancer beating drug is now the PERFECT short... That of course is patently insane. Stick with the facts.
The writing is on the wall. The price is currently being manipulated for the benefit of covering the huge (partially hedged) short position. However the jig is finally up and they know it. Hold is lifted. Finances and major player partner are secured. Drug durability and efficacy is largely proven. Take advantage of their games. Buy and hold and wait them out. The big players will step in once the dust clears. First they have to shake out as much retail dust as possible. As incredibly frustrating as this is for long time holders, this is NOT the time to get impatient. This will play out over the next few weeks. Stock is currently worth 2-3 times where they are now pinning it. Potential for ten bagger in 2 years.
This is a FANTASTIC buy and hold. 180 mill with no debt. Burn was 34 mill last 12 months. Now they split costs then go to 20% costs plus huge milestone payments then royalties (first 900 mill is tax free from loss carry forward). Miracle drug turns scarred bone marrow fibrosis back to normal. Other combo applications and synergies. ASH will open more eyes. We now have a powerful experienced MOTIVATED partner with clout. De risked big time. Still get stem royalties from ASTY when profitable. This has already been outrageously beaten down by 30 million shorted shares (possibly far more after today). Get in now.
pps today, interesting...from another poster...
GERN doing fine considering sector selling...
the difference between a sale and a sell off is in the volume of shares traded.
look at the biotech sector and you will find little green and the big cap stocks are down 3-5 % dragging the sector down. When the etf's are sold it affects the individual stocks so you have to stick to your valuation model and determine if today action is providing a buying opportunity in any of the stocks you want to own.
I have added a few more shares since this am since I don't see much downside in the near term and a lot of potential longer term. Still have a small position so may add more depending on pps action and ASH on Dec 8
Anyone know why the sector is selling off a bit today ?
I suspect Fidelity fund selling most of its BIIB based on valuation may have something to do with it.
Some posts from yahoo board from knowledgeable posters who know gern
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Insurance companies.
Imetelstat = CR and PR.
It can cure in a treatment course.
FYI: "BioMarin has slapped a price tag on its new drug Vimizim: $380,000 (PER YEAR, YES THAT IS PER YEAR, PER YEAR). That's hefty even for a rare disease treatment. But even at such nosebleed rates, Vimizim ranks in just third place on the list of the world's most expensive drugs."
Per Form 8-K royalties range from mid teens up to low twenties on worldwide net sales.
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I bet you are! I can hear collective head scratching. Yea, I am struggling too.
Well, Janssen Biotech, Inc. knows what it is worth if Imetelstat is market approved.
First, things first, Imetelstat will soon have orphan drug designation. No, this does not mean poor Oliver will be given Imetelstat by Fagin. It means the FDA will give orphan drug designation and approval after which time, Janssen can charge $1 million per patient treatment course.
In the US, MF affects about 1.5 out of 100,000 people annually. MF is typically diagnosed in people between 50 to 80 years old, but can occur at any age.
About 4740 patients annually in the United States alone. Since MD Anderson says " Each year, about 3,000 people in the United States are diagnosed with myelofibrosis", lets take an average. Make it 3870.
Imetelstat can help about 25% of these folks. So, 967 folks per year. $967 million per year in United States alone. Lets say $2 billion world-wide for MF alone.
Lets say Geron gets only .12 percent royalty. This is $240 million annually at peak estimated global sales.
Trading at 20X earning would put us at 25 to 30 PPS for 25% of global myelofibrosis alone. Anything else is gravy on top of this.
These are my quick back of the envelope number. Check my math please.
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No, there is a proper way to conduct sample size calculation. They know this, however, they do have to work within their budget for this phase 2, which is also directly limited by their salaries. We (and they) know that stroke has a spectrum of variation in recovery that causes havoc with statistical interpretation, hence the new global assessment approach. However, in reality this variation in outcome can only be accommodated by increasing the number of patients evaluated, within reason, to get the statistical power needed to prove efficacy. It is there, but it is very difficult prove. I am saying 20% more patients.
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We will find out on Dec. 8 when Dr. Tefferi presents at ASH. IMET is controlled and influenced by 3 entities now: Geron, Mayo, JNJ. This is a great combination that the FDA will respect. Remember, Dr.T has dual responsibilities (Geron & Mayo). The short program is hanging on for now by its finger nails, but will hang by its neck later.
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With Mayo Clinic and J&J as partners $20 will be achievable by early 2015, if IMET lives up to expectation. I believe it will with Dr. Tefferi's (dual roles at Mayo and Geron) leading the way. Mayo is the #1 research hospital in the USA , and J&J is the #1 drug company. Dr. Tefferi will be presenting his IMET-MF paper at ASH on Dec. 8.
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THE BIG 3: Mayo, J&J, IMET. Geron is in good company. This should be very good for MF patients, researchers, and investors. IMET will now have ever opportunity to live up to its full potential, including combinations with other drugs. We are talking about cancer stemcells, immortal cells, aging cells, telomeres-telomerase, genetics, etc.
Crawford
FREEDOM..! (yelled by Braveheart)
From the abuser hedgies and funds.
Whatever this will pop to it will pop to, settle down a bit and bounce around while it settles.
But the hedgies will not be able to screw with us like they have been doing. They still will, but now have real eyes on them because of our association.
This will continually increase in value as developments happen.
I am very long here because it will take awhile to realize the full potential of this science.
Curing cancer is wonderful, and makes me feel I am doing good by supporting it, but...
...but the immortality...
...the other side of all of this, elongating, not shortening the cell life, is what holds almost incomprehensible value.
Extending human life, as the baby boom generation ages...yup, good spot to have a monopoly on.
in my opinion,
Congrats Longs
Sympathy for Shorts, although they never seem to have sympathy for anyone else...
Cheers,
Hey Subs, thanks for posting that.
Ya know, this all reminds me of when I was looking at Apple in around the $6.00 range.
At the time people were saying, you have overpaid, you're an idiot, yada yada yada, people who were trying to trade the stock.
Today Apple is at 109
Do you really think, in hindsight, people should have been concerned about the small stock gains and losses.
If they just held and relaxed, they would be sitting quite nicely today.
Wrong or right, this is what GERN feels like to me today. The small movements do not get any reaction from me, and I find all the manipulation very entertaining and surreal.
Full disclosure, I no longer own Apple.
Seems like it, doesn't it...
Hey Jay,
In my opinion, Geron is not really a good trading stocks...that is not to say that there are not traders that have traded it profitably...as some have made nice money...
...but it is not a usual stock, as it is, in my opinion, incredibly manipulated...
...my personal conviction is that it is tainted by the hedge funds and pharma who have an interest in NOT finding a cure, but in continuing to profit from people who have no choice but to buy their current drugs...
So trying to trade this stock as you would any other, will have it's challenges, in my opinion...