Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
SMCI - I went back and looked up many of the internet bubble companies and their '99 to 2000 runs. Most of them were 10baggers in about a year. Some of these AI stocks have gone beyond that. And some have moved in just months. Crazy action
gil, that's even better than me selling LMB at a little over $16 and thinking I'd made out like a bandit after buying at $11. It's now trading at $45. Not quite as big of a post-sale move as yours, but still a very respectable blunder.
nelson, ha! I saw that skit when it first came out and got a kick out of it.
I actually tend to be an early adopter of new technology and love tech that actually IMPROVES things. Just can't stand tech that re-designs, makes you figure out where everything has moved, or re-names things. . . . and then you have to waste time just to get back to where you were BEFORE the alleged improvements. Waste of time and no gain -- that's what annoys me.
I was an early adopter of the internet, skype, youtube, gmail, many phone apps, etc. Always looking for and adopting technology that really makes a big difference. But I've also noticed that as these things mature, they tend to make changes for no reason, often makes them LESS useful, and seems like is often just a designer trying to justify their position at the company. I thought youtube's best version was like 8 versions ago.
But on the new tech side of things, I was an early adopter of bitcoin about 11 years ago, which I know many, if not most, on this board think is nonsense, or gambling, or evil. Munger called it rat poison. I strongly disagree.
I think SNL could do a new sketch with the old guy yelling about "the bitcons or the cryptomography or whatever it is you kids are calling it! Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me!"
MITQ ($.65) Listened to the call and didn't hear anything overly positive or negative, seemed about what one would have expected from the last call. They still feel they're at the beginning of a major upgrade cycle, and still optimistic about the stadium possibilities. I've bought a few at this level.
PYYX (2.60) I listened to the call and they were generally upbeat and optimistic. A couple of legitimate questions about the debt. Paraphrasing, "at some point, you are going to actually try and DECREASE the debt, right?" haha. They seem to think they've got things under control and can both increase cash flow as well as pay down debt over time. I own a fair amount and would also feel better if debt started going down a little :)
YahooFinance has kicked me back to the old setup today, after having me on the new layout for a couple days (I've done nothing to encourage or discourage this, they seem to be testing for an inevitable transition). As usual, I like the old setup better. With every change in layout design, it seems like I always like the old one better :)
hweb, for me YahooFinance seems to be going thru yet another revamp where they move everything around and make you find it again. Perhaps your glitch with them the other day was when they first started implementing some things. Seems like every couple of years some web designer convinces them they need to confuse their users yet again. Make the user waste a few hours learning a new system that is really no different or better than the old one.
Natgas - Weather, and Pres halting any new LNG export approvals isn't helping things either. Bought and paid for by "charities" which these days are nothing more than political lobbying groups:
https://archive.is/5oFnI
SRTS (3.83) Looks like the market is being a little more realistic today. I still just find this one absolutely perplexing. I can't ever recall a company being so optimistic and then sales collapsing like 70% in one quarter. Still seems like something blew up somewhere with their one major customer.
FWIW, I did re-listen to the call at the dial-in number and I think I heard most of the stuff correctly that I previously mentioned in this message:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173807130
The one additional thing I heard this time was that some of their smaller doc's offices will service 10-12 clients each month, whereas the busier ones can do 40 or 50 a month (I think that's what I heard). So here again, the "inflation" argument, or "interest rates rising" arguments, just don't make sense for the massive sales decline. CEO has said before that it used to take only 2 clients a month for a doc to break even on the lease program, and even with higher interest rates it's only about 2.5 clients a month. So even a low volume office of 10-12 clients, it should make plenty of sense.
One other thing struck me when listening to the call again regarding why the recurring rev model might make sense for some docs. Sensus has said in the past that many (or maybe even most) of their docs are also Mohs surgeons. I think Mohs is a much higher dollar value procedure and there are plenty of them to do. As it is, the doc might have to give up his time doing a Mohs surgery on a melanoma, in order to do the lower cost SRT procedures on non-melanoma. Just totally making up these numbers, but would you give up $1,500 an hour work to do $200 an hour work? So to steal Munger's line it's sort of a "show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome" type of thing. In theory, SRT may be a better procedure for the patient with a non-melanoma and the doc could even agree with that, but if it actually takes away from a Mohs surgeon's time when he can be booked solid on the more serious stuff, the incentive just isn't there. With the recurring model, the doc could keep his full schedule of high dollar Mohs melanoma surgeries, and let somebody else handle the non-melanoma stuff. So this would be free additional profit.
Having said all that, I'm in agreement with gil that the company is currently still more of a suspect than a prospect for me. IN THEORY, the recurring rev thing might work, but has yet to be proven. And when they still don't give a plausible explanation for such a huge loss of revenue, there's every reason to be suspect.
SRTS - Yeah, totally agree on the bragging about how things went as planned. haha, that was hilarious. It's like your sales were down like 60-70% in one quarter, when you were your most optimistic, and you still have no idea why. And you were buying back shares right before that collapse. Exactly as planned?! Ha, what a laugh. He did at least show a little humility when asked for projections and he said something like (paraphrasing) "well not to long ago we were hearing great things from potential customers and were incredibly optimistic for big sales growth, and then things turned out very differently, so we don't want to be in that position again. We'd rather under-promise and over-deliver." Something to that effect. I think much of the inventory build was they really were expecting this huge sales growth . . . . and got just the opposite.
Frankly, I would still love for there to be a legit explanation for that sales collapse from quarters ago, like, (I'm totally making this up) in some states increased regulations went in and we missed that, so until we have these oversight guys we've now collaborated with, we weren't able to sell any machines in those states. At least an explanation like that would make sense. But just inflation delayed purchases? I guess anything is possible, but that still doesn't make sense to me. And they've never even talked about getting back to the old revenue numbers, which also seems very odd.
The other possible explanations were customer concentration, and who knows maybe Silicon Valley Bank collapse hit either Senus or that one big customer very hard and the customer's line of credit went away or something so they couldn't expand anymore. In 2022, one customer was 81% of revenue! (down to 52% in most recent 10-Q, still a lot). SVB collapse was Mar10, 2023. Here's the 'concentration' paragraph from the 10-Q for Mar 31 2023:
SRTS - I listened to the call as well, but will have to listen again when replay is available because it was a little choppy for me over the internet.
The good: The most compelling part for me was when the son came on to describe the recurring revenue model using the analogy of buying a car. As it is now, if dermatologist buys the machine, it's like buying a toyota -- you still have to take it to the dealership for maintenance, pay for repairs, set aside time to drive the thing, etc. Whereas under the recurring revenue model, Sensus can do all those things -- repairs, provide a driver, upkeep, etc. So that sounded to me like a dermatologist wouldn't have to spend hardly any time on this (if he didn't want to) and almost let an entirely separate group of people operate out of a room in his office and run the show. So long as the additional crew does a good job (and frankly it doesn't seem very tough when you watch some of the videos), then I could see that being something some docs would want. Free additional profit for the doc's office, without large commitment of money or time. But we still don't know how profitable that would be, the exact breakdown, etc. But it sounded like (in theory) Sensus could recoup all the costs of the additional people required to operate the machines, etc. But I think CEO said revs from this wouldn't really start until around 2025.
The not so great: 1) the transdermal thing I think he said might provide an additional $1-2 million rev PER YEAR, so realistically, even though every little bit helps, this just isn't gonna add much to the biz. 2) Final question asked about decreased sales and marketing expense (I think it was -- again it was a little choppy for me) and CFO said it was a one-time decrease of like $800k. So yeah, my guess is operating expenses as a whole being down over 40% y-o-y is not repeatable.
All in all, I think this Q's earnings were not as good as they appear, but I came away feeling that maybe the recurring revenue model holds some promise
SRTS - Yeah, call will be interesting. Great headline eps number, but looks like some possible period-shifting on the expenses. Y-o-y revenues were down just slightly. but operating expenses were down over 40%. ??
SRTS - yeah, i don't like two worthless pr's within a couple of days of earnings. Seems very suspect. I hope the company gets back on track, but tough to believe them when they're trying to make minutiae sound like a big deal. In fact, their "collaboration" announced a couple of days ago sounds like it will increase costs in the short term due to increased regulation:
"Under the collaboration, CureRays will provide Sensus’ dermatology customers with oversight and supervision to assure patient safety, quality, reliability of outcomes and conformance with regulatory requirements, in particular in states where regulations covering the use of ionizing radiation have been tightened. In addition, CureRays will research new indications for Sensus’ superficial radiotherapy (SRT and IG-SRT), including inflammatory diseases."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sensus-healthcare-collaborates-curerays-oversight-130000260.html
Biotech Busts -- Sold out of OMIC today. If anybody has more of these biobusts with huge cash balances greater than the share price, would appreciate any more names
Zerohedge calls jobs numbers ridiculous as well:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-recent-history
(Pretty shocking to think the govt might be lying about something.)
Ha larry, then I too am a successful investor! Thankfully haven't had one of those in a while, but I've definitely had them. Those are a stark reality check from one's broker that you are no longer allowed to daydream about how this worthless stock might be taken over and turn into the latest AI pump. As they sometimes put at the end of a french film: Fin
Yeah, at least that site skips a couple of steps. Thanks. The new Sedar reminds me of early search engines where they wanted you to check off like 10 boxes before doing each search. Makes me think the people at Sedar aren't even investors. All any investor wants is to type in the name of the company and get a list of filings from the newest to the oldest. That's it. Not that tough.
MITQ - I've bought some over the last few days as well. Would like to think it's bottoming here.
AATC - Personally, I'd rather a company save the higher listing fees and all the distractions, and stay on the otc and pay shareholders that money in dividends. So long as a company is fully audited and making money, especially a tiny company like this, I've rarely found that where they're listed matters much.
AATC - Definitely nice surprise on the special div
SEDAR - Geez, that thing is ridiculous. Takes three times as long to find anything.
SRTS - Yeah, I was just looking at the 10-Ks, but it looks like they file those about a month after they announce. So I guess this is pretty normal for them
SRTS - On the plus side, in the past they've tended to announce the final quarter in mid-March, and this year they're bumping it up to Feb 8th. In my experience, you tend to want announce sooner when you've got good news. Whereas when results are bad, you do the dreaded "after-hours on Friday" release lol
Hopefully they'll get back on track
SRTS ($3.23) The other thing that bothers me about these guys is they seem to have departed from the way they used to do things. From my recollection, they used to be real straight shooters, just reporting earnings. Purposely didn't "give guidance" or play the pre-announcement game, or any of that stuff. But since they got blindsided by their business collapsing like 70-80% in one quarter (or however much it was) it seems like mgt has been trying to justify their existence and prove they know what's going on with their business.
In last couple of conf calls, CEO made a big deal of how he thought they would sell 60 systems in 2023. But from what I recall, he also said nothing about earnings. So this PR sounds a little like, "See! We met my guidance, just like I said. I know what I'm doing! Things are under control." Why announce it now, rather than two weeks from now? What's the point? It might be very good news, but it might just be an ego thing also. It's even kind of sloppily written, imo. In the first paragraph it says the company,
"today announces preliminary unaudited financial results for the three and 12 months ended December 31, 2023."
But this isn't really correct, as all they announced was revenue. Where's the part that says, "we expect Q4 earnings to be in the range of .02-.04 per share." And that comes back to the point of why do this at all when you'll announce the whole thing 2 weeks from now?
Could be great news, but could also be a way to get a bump in the stock price when you know earnings are going to be negative. If you announce a loss of (.02) per share, is it better to have the stock price at $3.50 when you announce the loss, or at $2.50 and drift down even further? I think when CEO's are distressed they often start thinking like that and do anything they can to bump the stock price ahead of earnings.
Would love to see these guys get back on track, but I'm always suspicious of these types of "pre-announcements" or whatever you want to call them.
AGAE ($1.32) Insider continues to buy, despite the recent horrible pricing of its shares to a strategic investor. Tough to know what's going on here:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1708341/000125085324000001/xslF345X05/primary_doc.xml
TAIT ($3.10) Yeah, haven't looked a this one in a while. You see those big red volume bars and it looks horrible at first. But then the actual amount of volume and it's only like 50k shares a day for four or five days. Could be bad news of some kind in the offing, or could just be the typical swings of a low floater. Maybe somebody just needed to liquidate for some reason. I've not seen any news
Yep, you're only allowed to do things their way. Not allowed to make your own decisions. They're the experts
Vanguard is apparently not allowing its customers to buy bitcoin etfs. A boycott has started.
Regardless of one's opinion on bitcoin, or penny stocks, or microcap stocks, etc., one thing I can't stand is a middleman telling me what you can and can't do with your own money. Is it your money, or theirs?
Even worse, Vanguard is the second biggest holder of Microstrategy lol.
Only the experts are allowed to make decisions. You, the peon, are too simple-minded to understand these things, so our paternalism is necessary to save you from yourself.
Small companies uplisting to a bigger exchange is what the bitcoin etfs remind me of.
Not so much on our Savvy board, but often on other boards and chatrooms if a small microcap company says they're going to uplist from otc to nasdaq, there's frequently a price run-up in anticipation, "this is gonna be big! Finally, people will be able to buy our stock, this changes everything!"
Seems like invariably it's a nothingburger at best, and often ends up in a price sell-off. There have already been plenty of securities one could buy to play the bitcoin price.
Bitcoin ETFs - I'm not really that big on etf approval one way or the other, but it does appear to be happening. These symbols are already populating at most brokers:
Cboe BZX issues listing circulars for 6 new #Bitcoin ETFs to list tomorrow Jan 11, 2024.
— ETF Hearsay by Henry Jim (@ETFhearsay) January 10, 2024
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF $BTCO
Franklin Bitcoin ETF $EZBC
ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF $ARKB
VanEck Bitcoin Trust $HODL
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund $FBTC
WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund $BTCW… pic.twitter.com/GJkq6yLFRB
AFFU ($.006) This one looks a tad scammy to me. Already 600m shares out and handing out shares like candy. Has been a dilution machine it's entire life, switching from business to business. Been in business nearly 30 years under a ton of different iterations. Looks like they always claim to be getting into the latest hot things of the day. The OneMindNG website looks like a buzzword bistro of how they're going to help us all live in utopian smart cities under the constant surveillance and watchful caring eye of our U.N. overlords. The company bought OneMind in 2020 for a $1.755 million note, no money down.
Start reading on page 21 and see if you can stay awake thru all the different "businesses" they've claimed to be getting into and out of, loans and convertible loans, warrants, shares for employment, shares for consulting, issuing shares to pay off debt, etc:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/388350/content
BTC - I think the bitcoin price rise is mainly to do with the upcoming etf's which will make it much easier for the average person to buy bitcoin. However, this is one area where I strongly disagree with Munger and Buffett. I do not think it's beanie babies or tulips. It wasn't that long ago that Buffett despised tech companies because he didn't understand them, but now his largest holding is Apple.
GTEC - Was anyone ever able to find out the specifics of the large "other loss"? All I could see mentioned in the 10-Q was this, which doesn't give any specifics:
PFE On my charts it shows to have gotten near the lows of 2020, but also similar lows of 2013-2014. Sort of a triple bottom of those three.
Newish financial site is pretty darn good, if you haven't found it yet. Not sure how long it will be free, but it sort of reminds me of the old yahoo finance:
https://roic.ai/
AGAE ($1.34) Continued insider buying. Up to about $2 million bucks worth recently:
http://insiderbuyingselling.com/?t=agae
AFRM - Sure seems like another sign of an ebullient market. A "buy now, pay later" lender whose stock has been flying recently announced they will be offering loans for basic items at Walmart. Sure seems like a good credit risk where nothing could possibly go wrong:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/self-checkout-kiosks-4500-walmarts-now-offer-buy-now-pay-later-loans-basic-items
AGAE ($1.43) Anyone still in this one? I'm still underwater on a few from way back when. If I recall, it was a bust, that's turned into another bust. But they're currently earning enough interest on CD's that they've stopped burning thru more cash for now. It's moving a little on recent large insider buying, looks like just under $1.8m worth.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1708341/000125085323000073/xslF345X05/primary_doc.xml
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1708341/000125085323000074/xslF345X05/primary_doc.xml
KEQU - When you say " I have a short SA article incoming.", I assume you mean "brief" not "going short", correct?
BUKS - I thought the quarter was ok, but not fantastic. Frankly, was a little disappointed the there wasn't more of a savings in SG&A with some of the big salaries gone. Operating income was actually down about 10% yoy, but as you suggested they were saved by gain on sale of plane and by share count. Costs in the casino biz were up, but also sounds like they're trying to hire some additional talent and implement things that could possibly pay off down the road. Drop in backlog not huge, but also not great when you were already dealing with basically flat sales in this quarter. Hopefully the insiders that are buying see better things down the road.
I also don't like that, from what I can tell, new mgt seems to have just eliminated the earnings calls. No mention of one again this quarter. Earnings also not posted yet at the company website. To me, that's a little sloppy. (Makes me think, what else is being done in sloppy fashion?) Not really any excuse for that. It's a little thing, but a good mgt team should be on top of that stuff. I also never heard back from writing to the Board about clarifying the options grants. Don't remember exactly, but the one guy was given like 300k shares to handle "investor relations" and doesn't reply to a simple question.