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DOW: Within 170 points of 23K... getting interesting....
DOW:
The DOW is now just 227 points away from that all important area of 23K.
Will we bump it and re-treat...? Or, will we blow right through...?
XIV:
A sell signal was triggered today. So, the buy was triggered on August 10th @ 78.18 & the sell was triggered today @ 99.80, a 27.6% gain.
I will no longer be posting buy and sell signals for the XIV since I now have clients who pay for this info. If anyone here has profited from my posting these signals, glad I have been of help to you.
I will continue to post opinions of the major indexes as well as world ecomonics.
XIV:
Came very, very, VERY close to a sell signal today. A positive day tomorrow should produce a sell signal.
Less than 450 points away from DOW 23K. Now it's getting interesting.
XIV update:
Getting very close to a sell signal for XIV.
Another day like today on Monday, should produce a sell signal. A down day Monday for the SP500 woukd keep XIV as a hold, waiting for a sell signal.
A big question is: Will this coming sell signal be so strong as to warrant one to not only sell XIV, but to also go short....?
I'll know more next week.
Re: DOW 23K
As of now, it looks like a correction in the DOW is of the sideways variety, instead of a typical 10% or so pullback.
The DOW is 660 points away from 23K. Let's see what happens after we get there.
Here is one XIV scenario I'm looking for:
A sell signal followed by a nice spike in the VIX, over a couple of days, to create a quick buy signal. This quick spike would push the XIV down to 81.19, or a really large spike pushing the XIV down to 66.31
It would, imo ,take a HUGE news event to hit 66.31, but doable. Currently, there's no fear in the markets, so they're looking for any excuse to sell off and take profits.
Still waiting for an XIV sell signal. Could take another 10 trading days... or more.
dow 23k
we're getting closer and closer to dow 23,000. one of two things are likely;
1. we bounce off of 23,000 and correct for 6-10 percent or
2. we blow right through 23,000 and go up to 36-42k so fast it will make your head spin.
i prefer a 6-10 percent correction, then a slow grind higher. this would be better, long term.
double post deleted.
xiv update;
that buy signal came on april 13. a sell signal occurred on july 21, a buy occurred on august 10. i'm currently waiting for a sell signal. this brings us up to date.
i'll try to stay current on this.
The day is young, but XIV is working on a buy signal. A couple of days of down would be good for the markets here, imo. Maybe a 2-3% pullback...?
We also have option expiration on Friday. An interesting week shaping up.
http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
A few events for tomorrow that may spike up the VIX:
Theresa May giving a speech concerning Brexit
Chinese President XI speaking at Davos
Friday: Trump gets sworn in.
So, we may get a buy signal for XIV this week. The 48 area looks like a good level for a buy signal. we'll see.
No fear in this market. $VIX continues to drop. May finally see the VIX start to rise. One of my indicators is starting to turn down, while another is still pointing up, and the main one has been pegged at the highest possible reading for three days. We'll see what this afternoon brings. Afterall, it is Friday the 13th. :>) We'll see what Monday brings, too.
XIV: Still waiting for a buy signal. Looking to re-enter at 48.40 , or lower, whenever I get a signal.
S&P 500 numbers by June 2024:
Low: 4363.18
Mid: 5602.58
High:7132.28
Targets I have for the DJIA by June 2024 (7 1/2 years):
High: 63,709.48
Mid: 50,045.58
Low: 38,974.34
Very doable.
BTW, got a sell signal on the daily chart today for XIV @ 53.67 I'll post again when I get a buy signal.
Looking for a run to the 23,000 area on the DJIA, then a correction of 10-12%. If we blow right through 23k, then it could be off to the races and hit 40k by June of 2018.
When we hit 21k, I'll have a better idea of how the U.S. markets will behave going forward.
Remember, as the world crashes and burns, the US dollar gets stronger. And those foreign dollars will get invested in US stocks. Money flows to the strongest currency.
But again, the 23,000 area is of great importance and what happens when we get there.
STD (dieselfuel)
Looking at the 22.47 area for a buy signal on XIV.
Another reason the market will continue higher in the next few years:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/the-1-trillion-short-underlying-u-s-stocks-spring-awakening
Worth the read.
Yes, more up coming. Waiting for another buy signal. would like to see more down tomorrow. Volatility got quite low in a short amount of time. It was due to rise.
Looking to fill that gap at $35.98 when I get a buy signal.
NUGT and DUST are two I watch. :>)
Sold XIV @ 26.81 pre-market this morning.
XIV: @26.72 or above, a mild sell signal will occur. looking to sell.
XIV: 08-21-2015 35.98 next gap to fill. :>)
XIV 25.78 gap filled today. Sold 1/4 of my position. Still looks strong.
Also, keep in mind, there's an open gap @ 35.98 on the daily XIV chart. Don't know if it'll fill on this go 'round, but it's an area I'm watching.
Looking to close out a position trade in XIV. Gap at $25.75, hope it fills before I get a sell signal.
Buy signal was at $15.98 (!!!!!!). Unfortunately, I was already in @ 22 and change. :>(
WHAT UP, BOYS!...LOL..... :>)
XIV: Next target I have is 56.76
Someday, this market will make a great short. But, now ain't the time, imo.
Maybe in Sept. of 2015....
df
I'm out! Sold pre-market 35.26 :>(
df
Got it! I'm in.
df
Trying to buy sqqq for a little "side" trade. I want in at 35.09 or lower.
df
Fletch,
I sold SQQQ today @ 3:08:15 p.m for 35.93
We could be in for a little correction now, but I'd rather not miss the up-side in the markets.
So, now it's "wait & see" time.
df
Actually, that trend change is on Sept. 3/4. (NOT 4/5). So, tomorrow or Thurs. could mark a high or low on the indexes. I'm leaning towards a high at this point.
However, if we sell off now through Thurs., than we could be seeing a low.
I'll take either. Doesn't matter to me. :>)
df
I'm still holding. There's a trend change on Sept. 4/5. Don't know if this will mark a high or a low.
Would be nice to see a 20+ point drop tomorrow. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. I expect a sizable move in either direction tomorrow with a counter direction move on Tuesday after a long weekend.
FWIW,
df
O.K., I doubled my position. If the NDX goes positive again today, I'll add more.