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2da - my remark the we are not the stupid ones was merely a defense against your earlier remark that most people who read these posts are smart implying that some are not smart.
I really have no issue with you or your opinions. It is fine if we differ. Just realize that there is a group of us who have come to some realizations over time that differs markedly from yours.
All in all - I hope we can disagree without taking offense.
Yeah, some of that history is nothing to write home about. But… this is a new day…and things are looking up.
It might be for sale but probably not until the product uses are more clearly defined for their commercial value.
Yesterday and today the selling seems to have dried up. Bodes well for the next couple of months.
Looking for prices north of 4.50.
Looking good. Today there was was steady accumulation in the afternoon into the close.
A partnership of consequence will actually make your buyout interest more valuable. Ariad's finances have to be repaired in some meaningful long term manner otherwise Ariad will be negotiating from a vulnerable position. A partner who likes the first piece might want the rest which gets you back to HB's favorite model Genentech. That would still be HB's choice for a number of reasons which I will not elaborate on.
He did not answer the question adequately at the time. Also, there is more data since then - see Jaybe - that suggests that this might be worth pursuing.
The question is addressed to HB and Ariad's BOD as well as everyone who is interested in responding.
This is a an open board.
Thanks for your cautions but this has nothing to do with the pps. As for being embarrassed, I frankly don't give a damn. I only look for clarity and truth. Both can come with a price that I will always pay.
You write as if you think that I have no clue who HB, Clackson et al. are. That is presumptuous though I take no offense since you don't know me. Just know that I've been around for a long time. Praising HB et al for their business and science acumen as a means of begging the question just doesn't work.
The question remains on the table - Is the ponatinib indication for AZ going to be adequately explored? And if not, why not?
No one suggests it's simple. I haven't heard a valid reason not to explore the AZ indication. And, considering its the importance, the reason has to be readily persuasive.
Of course I exaggerated the SAE risk just to make the point that AE are not a real barrier to exploring the AZ indication.
Yes, HB's resistance to pursuing this indication for AZ is troubling when this could be the most meaningful use of Ponatinib. If it requires that HB leave for this to be pursued then I am on board but somehow I think HB will come around on this. Hope to hear him say something sensible about this on the CC.
I remember what he wrote. It didn't make sense to me then and it doesn't now. if there were a chance of dying from Pona SAEs in the range of 5%, and the chance of dying like a vegetable from AZ was 100% what would you do if Pona could stop the process in an appreciable way. The financial, social and facial cost of AZ is extraordinary and growing. I can't understand where the problem is with exploring this indication in some way or another. Please don't quote HB as a refutation.
2da - Pesky AE's the problem for AZ indication - really? Certain brutal death vs AE's?
Vid - I have never understood why we haven't heard more about this indication. Perhaps they have had a few other concerns to address recently. I have been hoping that there was a more secret exploration of this indication but was always pretty much sure that my thoughts were just wishful thinking. WHo knows. Lightening might strike twice. The limits of pons have yet to be defined.
For a more comprehensive exposition of the AZ indication for pons, see today's jaybe on SI.
Are standing on head as you read Friday's move? And the volume - well just what I was looking.
Stay tuned - more upside to come over the next couple of months.
Looks ASTC is launching...
ABL001 is going in to P1 now - see clinical trials.
Sorry to say - it does. But, in this case, no harm, no fowl.
Exaggerated positions about both Ariad and HB have become the norm here. Another example of exaggerated expression are the views that characterize HB's motives to sell the company as if they are in direct opposition to Denner.
There is historic commentary from HB, that I will not bother dredging up, that indicates he would sell if the price is right. Between aging out and facing a credibility issue, I think HB will sell once Ariad's value can be largely maximized. So there is no real conflict around this point. Getting the company to where HB will sell will take some time and that may be a problem for Denner. Also HB is used to functioning like an autocrat which probably also don't work well for Denner.
The amount of revenue that can be expected from mN may well probably determine the timing as this drug begins to demonstrate efficacy (if ever).
2da - I think HB's range of optional actions could be called flexibility .
Oooh! Your post speaks for itself - I just call it as I see it.
Another grossly exaggerated observation.
Herper may not be a slouch and Bach is certainly no slouch, but neither of them could make the needed differentiations between Ariad and the other drugs to make that story either useful or meaningful. Indeed, it seems like it is more misleading than not. So, the question that remains is did you learn anything about '113 from Jaybe or Biomaven
I guess you didn't learn anything after you first posted your stuff about the crowded field for '113 on SI. Both Jaybe and Biomaven responded to it.
There will be more good news over the next three months.
TC - Good luck with your question. Are you looking for an answer or just prodding the hyena?
wilco244 - You are making the wrong calculation. If Denner leaves, you will not be able to get out in time. You will just drown. Being down and hoping to get even is a fool's game - no put down intended - I am being purely descriptive. It reminds me of all the gamblers who have lost during the regular season and make a huge bet on the Super Bowl only to loose even more. You should listen to jq1234 and find some better stocks JMHO.
Over the last year there has been a steady drum beat for HB to resign, and for the BOD to resign and/or realign. These calls have been accompanied by various descriptions/accusations of massive mismanagement evidenced by HB lying, acting in self-serving self interest and HB failing to manage the clinical trials well. The BOD has been described as complicit in this mismanagement. There is a growing legion of posters who echo some version of these accusation - everyone and they themselves know who they are.
So my question all of you is a simple one. Why do you continue to hold this stock??? As jq1234 kindly pointed out to all of you recently, you have so many interesting alternatives which he thinks would be better ideas. And now there is some kind of call for shareholder activism to get rid of that perceived tyrant, HB, once and for all. Why bother why not just sell and walk with your sell button down??
There is no reason to stay and wrangle with someone who has such a tight hold on a company. Are you in love with the science of the company? Doesn't really sound that way. Perhaps you guys just like to whine and complain. There is not very much constructive stuff coming from you these days. In fact, you guys are so annoying with your repetitiveness that I can hardly stand to read the steady stream of whining.
The number one rule in investing for serious investors has rested on assessing the quality of management. If you don't trust the management don't buy. If you loose trust in the management, sell.
So, give me one good reason for staying with the kind of perceptions you guys have. Don Shimoda and jq1234 have reinforced your perceptions recently. The pps is dropping. WInter is coming. The world looks scarier. SO what the hell are doing in this stock?
Now for my part, I concede that HB has some characterological issues that have led to many of problems Ariad is working through. He also has some real strengths that go largely unnoticed thee days. Did he say things that turned out to be not true? Yes. Is it disappointing to me? Yes. Is it fatal for me in holding the shares? No. If it was, i'd be long gone.
What he said was something quite different. Nice try at getting him off the hook.
You are right. The statement is a slur. They are being held as guilty because they "appeared" to ignore the investigators. The question is did they ignore documented side effects or not. If you reduce that to appearances then they are guilty whether they did or did not ignore them as long as they just looked like they were doing that. To go on and conclude that this is some kind of evidence for what Ariad did or did not do to themselves is ridiculous.
Lax - You're the man - going green (at least for now).
Lax - Sorry for the misunderstanding. As to the link between patents and actionable info well I have never thought that there was one since the granted patents come so late in the process.
Lax - Jaybe has a long history of posting some of the most meaningful material that can be found on Ariad. His posts include the patent applications because they are just part of the fine net he is able to cast and to which he has been add insight without the usual biases. No one else comes close to equalling the contributions he makes to the progress inside Ariad on any board.
Why you would question his motives/importance is beyond my comprehension.
Glad to see you are feeling better.
The size of the reserve for the lawsuits is probably smaller than you are implying. I would expect a partnership of size before then. Your negative outlook speculations don't have much footing for the time being - though situations can always change for the worse. They certainly aren't there or even in distant sight.
The PTSD remark really was good natured. Sorry you guys are still suffering about it.
it would be hard to be more wrong but it's always possible. Then you would probably be competing with br for that distinction.
The funds from Bellicum was found money that would have been hard to realize in any other way with so little burden to the shareholders. Just a sound decision as long as the financial markets are closed to Ariad.
There is distinct difference between a something being a crisis and something being sinister. People at Ariad made mistakes for a number of reasons some of them due to errors in judgement some due to more characterological problems. Nothing pollyanna about my position. I am pleased to be owning the stock at this level and I expect to make a great deal of money over the next year (just like I did in previous years). I just don't get emotionally involved with my stocks or their CEOs or their mistakes.
The remark about the pig was just good natured.
2da - hope you can lighten up a bit.
Sounds like a lot of you guys might have a little PTSD from last year. Now everything that's rational looks sinister. If things were as bad as you say, there would be a lot more signs of that kind of corporate decay. Everyone at Ariad knows that their professional and financial futures are linked to a satisfactory resolution to the crisis. I am sure they are all rowing as fast as they can with all oars in the water.
HB has a lot of work to do to get this company ready for a sale. He has to work each drug to its maximum visibility so he can realize its full value in a sale. This takes time and money; and, its in your best interest as a shareholder. Anyone who thinks this company will not be sold is delusional. The handwriting has been on the wall since the fall of last year. It may take another 6 to 12 months to get it ready.
Consider for a moment - How much lipstick is needed to get a 500 ton pig looking pretty?