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Johnny, did you listem to John Rice recent talk? In it he discussed GE and alluded to the fact that, yes they did try and go there own way using optical but Sigma and its physicists were focused on thermal. A few years down the line and GE is still having to ‘muscle’ their way to an inefficient and costly inspection. Perhaps realising, but not yet admitting thermal may be the way forward after all. They certainly dont seem to be shouting any great success (that stands up to rigorous inspection, excuse the pun), nor does there seem to be a particularly big client demand for their system worthy of any major breakthroughs in this department. Telling also that Baker Hughes a GE company is one of Sigmas major accounts as they complete evaluation.
We are just bystanders but that was an interesting explanation from the early days of Sigma, GE and an industry looking for its footing. Were there just competing physical methods in play? GE thought they could get away looking to see if a part had a problem, rather than looking to see if a problem was about to occour. A major difference, both scientifically and practically. Almost everyone can do the former, only sigma can do the latter, certainly on a commercial level as we enter 2020
Siemens set up an Orlando 3d printing innovation site with Material Solutions. I have wondered who our installation is down in florida on the presentations. Could be that
its fine on the down side on a regular basis but heaven forbid it happens in a positive direction...scandalous
We believe that the potential revenue realizable from a successful RTE that leads to deployment ranges from $2 million to $4 million per average major end user.
Surging over the past 12 months, we now have a hardened commercial, industrial, user-friendly product with 19 beta customers who are some of the largest industrial companies in the planet and in the top echelon of additive manufacturing OEMs. Today, we are beginning the completion phase on some test and evaluations that a year ago we were just setting out to sell
On a new front, commencing with the release of PrintRite3D 5.0 in May 2019, Sigma opened a third channel to market. PrintRite3D 5.0 is the user-friendly version of our product to market that no longer requires substantial on-site customer support from Sigma. And therefore, the company commenced selling on research tanks, university, small users, they open a retail channel. As of today, the pipeline of signed purchase orders in the channel total $442,000 (sic) [$317,000], and we have verbal commitments for POs totaling approximately $895,000.
And fourth, we expect our cash usage to decrease during the fourth quarter of 2019 as major initiatives in these areas have now been completed. The foundation building for our PrintRite3D commercial launch has largely been completed from a financial perspective in the third quarter of 2019.
The retail channel, which essentially has been created in the past 6 months, that went from 0 to about 75% or 80% of that $1.2 million in the pipeline now. We can't prove whether that's a sustainable rate, but it's reasonable to think it might be
...the dislocation is ending soon.
i have to put up with more of your drivel about the company not producing?
oh, that's right, maybe the tech just fell out of the sky and walked itself into Baker Hughes office. Once there it sat down in front of the Quality control engineer (who had been assessing quality a totally different way for 20 years) and explained the amazing benefits of itself. The engineer as super smart and he said well no need to test with our machines or in fact any of our engineers, ill just tell them what happens (including all the guys in our other offices) and we will take 50 machines. We haven't actually decided what machines we are getting yet or what we are going to do with all the machines but we will just do the order anyways. No need to do any tests either, im sure we will work it out. We have a job starting on monday for some FAA certified parts which sit in an airplanes engine, i've got a beer with the FAA guy friday, ill mention it and all will be sweet.
...
Life in a vacuum... if only it was so simple
So tell me, what if a contract comes tomorrow? Suddenly management are producing. It went from 'management is not producing' today to 'management have produced' tomorrow. What this completely fails to acknowledge is the success management is having in many other levels of what makes an emerging tech company successful. The work, the company structure, the technology itself, technology improvements, industry collaboration, industry recognition, DARPA validation etc alongside frugal balance sheet management that has got from today to tomorrow.
Introducing a technology into an existing industry is hard enough, introducing a technology into an entirely new industry is a whole different thing. Easy for armchair pundits to preach from above, a different world on the playing field
This kind of response just sums up what i am saying. Industry changes do not just happen in a vacuum. Quality control procedures in high end technology production do not change overnight. They do not get built into production systems overnight. Engineers used to subtractive manufacturing do not learn the new technologies of additive manufacturing overnight. Company strategies for how many machines, how many products, how many new designs in a new technology do not appear overnight. Evaluation of a technology doesn't happen overnight. On top of the complexities of all the above, you have to factor in man power, machine access etc etc, and there you have evaluation periods that take longer than a couple of days. That will speed up as the industry learns and the tech becomes more widespread, but we are talking about pioneers here. It is simply naive to think this new technology in a new technology industry, in a a new industry paradigm is simply plug and play.
A better way to look at it is that none of the 19 RTE companies have dropped out, there have not been negative results and more companies and OEM's are joining the program.
To deny progression at this point is what makes me go 'duh'
Definitely getting to an interesting time for Sigma, and not just on the closing up of evaluation programs. It does seem that the industry is now learning a lot more about AM and how it is going to work. It has become obvious that optical really only gets you so far. Not just because John Rice says it does, but because that is the scientific reality. It was interesting hearing John Rice discussing how Sigma and GE effectively followed different paths – one optical and one thermal. It makes sense now to hear that explanation after years of wondering what happened. Kudos to Sigma for sticking to their guns. They hailed from some of the best physicists on the planet who had evolved this idea at one of, if not THE, most pre-eminent physics laboratories on the planet. It makes absolute sense that physics would win the day. Optical may work (to a degree) but it is as John said “muscling your way to a solution” and is thus not efficient, not particularly accurate, slow and expensive when packaged with all the scanning tools.
Sigma has stuck by their physics and now all the initial hubris, surface ‘solutions’ and internal attempts at solving the as you build quality issues are being laid bare. The truth is staring the industry in the face. Those solutions only get you so far, and that far is not good enough for the high end, and nor should it be. If you can’t understand when a build is going wrong, predicting and changing real time, if you can’t verify the quality of every build on every inconsistent machine as it is happening then you are simply inefficient. If you are paying more to do worse then there is room for improvement, and importantly there is a door for competition.
For those who are saying if it is so obvious why has no one bought it, I say again that 19 of the top names in the industry have to this point ‘bought into it’, and spent time and energy evaluating and strategizing how to use it. No negative news from these evaluations. 3 OEM’s evaluating sends a strong message that either their tech is simply not competitive, or that Sigma really has a solution, or both. The fact is these evaluations take time, longer than many know, think about or understand, but they are progressing.
As John mentioned there is a major dislocation between the daily PPS movements in this Bermuda triangle of behind the scenes progress and industry change. That does not mean that dislocation won’t reverse suddenly and consistently, far from it. It won’t take much for this stock to form a solid base much higher than present levels. Whilst Sigma’s golden future lies in the years ahead rather than the months ahead the fact is that the first order or two will lay the balance sheet foundation the PPS needs to remain stable. Once the companies SaaS strategy kicks in there will be a drip feed of revenue coming in regularly complimented by bulk orders here and there. This covers the costs, the marketing and allows the company to really build Sigma into a market pivot. To this point R+D, evaluations and the like have all been a major burden on the bottom line and understandably so, but take that burden off (both due to drip feeding revenue and lower R+D costs) then and then a $14m market cap suddenly becomes obviously low with the potential of the tech, patents, industry growth and data accrual that is apparent.
If thermal truly is the way, the logical physical end game, then Sigma and its patent portfolio which it built whilst everyone was looking the other way (optical) could suddenly come into play in dramatic fashion. Be it simple contract revenue or as the only piece in an industry strategic bidding war.
At this point daily PPS can do what it likes, the near to medium term future is looking very bright indeed from many different angles.
Why wick? Why is there patent so valuable?
Why are ge reverse engineering the fuel nozzle to try to get better parts if their tech so good? Thats expensive, slow, inefficient and inexact.
Is this just a soundbyte post as usual or is there depth to it?
Ps. Both ge and sigma use ai tech so not much point throwing the term out there as a buzz kill
Nice to see the company strategically moving towards the software angle. The last few years has been predominantly tech focused with r+d to go with it, but there is a lot of value to be had in the data collection and most importantly sigmas specialty of making data actionable. And when i say a lot, i mean ALOT. The past few years has allowed them to build an enviable library of data and build 'signatures' that will be able to feed upon itself and make it very hard for others to catch up. The data will be real time, scale-able and valuable. It's what factories will have to have in order to provide the abilities the market needs. Those with will massively supersede those that don't, there will always be companies who want to compete to do better, Sigmas technology offers that and will unlock investors value going forward as a result.
Mark Ruport is very well placed to capture this value. SAAS will unlock revenue that will underpin the company's growth. The runway is nearly complete...
There is definitely a dislocation on a few fronts with this stock. There is a rather obvious crowd who use it for day trading, and have done for years, but there is also vital developments taking place that will make the company profitable (and as SAAS likely very profitable). Other than time it has been hard to fault Sigmas developments in the last year, and some important milestones are being hit that will make this company a success.
This dislocation will not last forever and the crowd will disappear faster than you can say boo. They had their fun, but the future is not theirs. With the likelihood of new strategic investors coming in the days of $200 5% moves will become few and far between.
As you wisely point out, study the tech and the market... not the ihub anonymous board
Also key to the reproducibility of the MetalFAB1 3D printing process are two partnerships. Sigma Labs, a spin-off of Los Alamos National Lab in New Mexico, has commercialized an in-process monitoring tool called PrintRite3D, which combines sensors with software to provide real-time feedback on the 3D printing process in order to analyze the variables that yield an optimal part. About this partnership, Kersten remarked, “We monitor the melt pool through a solution developed by our partner Sigma Labs, because they’re experts in that field. There’s no reason why we would reinvent the wheel if it’s already been invented by someone else.”
https://new.engineering.com/story/additive-industries-evolves-metal-3d-printing-at-rapid-2016
Saw but havent read yet, thanks for reminding me
Sigma Labs had an absolutely awesome week at FormNext 2019, holding over 30 meetings at our booth as well as other locations, with customers and prospects over multiple industries.
Thanks bud, these updates always useful
Don't underestimate the retail channel SGLB has created.
$320k-$420k in signed purchase orders
$900k in verbally committed PO's
Potentially a sustainable revenue feed. These basically are 5-6mo worth/say $500K/Quarter (let alone educating the future workforce and familiarizing people with PR3D)
That and the fact cash usage is expected to decline in Q4 (as is hiring needs) is a very nice cushion to have as we head into bigger orders
One of the more intriguing parts of the call was where John talked about the patents.
The basic summary was this:
Sigma has for about 9 years been building a formidable patent portfolio around the melt-pool behaviour. This area was a different pathway from most, who instead focused on optimal/photo based technology patents. If melt pool behavioural inspection becomes the way forward, and it is definitely looking that way, then Sigma has has a, 9 year
The runway is nearly complete
Cash usage to decrease in Q4
Staff hires stable to mid-2020
Revenues to come in to cover costs, (the unlikely retail source an inspired and timely move)
Big orders in the near future
Long term OEM licensing deals with recurring revenues close behind
Patent control in the thermal inspection arena
Delivering the key data for closed loop with Materialise
Once the burn rate is taken care off the rest is just upside. Welcome to tech software.
This is not a 10m stock for long, and it was nice to see Wall St on the calls. Time they are a changing for Sigma Labs...
ps the work with ANSYS was a nice sidenote. It is obvious simulation and inspection go hand in hand and great to see this hasn't been left behind. It will improve AM substantially.
Lets not forget that is in Materialise interest to promote, embed and sell PrintRite3D into their massive, and growing MCP market
Thanks. MCP sounds like an important peice of the sigma labs puzzle. Nice to see it front right and center of their Formnext show
Indeed more good news for Sigma. Not just that we are presenting with Materialise, but WHY we are doing so. The presentation at arguably the biggest AM expo of the year is a massive sign of confidence with the integrated product. This dot connection (once laughed at as usual) has become real and will prove a lucrative revenue stream for Sigma down the line. It is embedded streams like this, along with OEM deals that will make PrintRite 3D ubiquitous in a large swathe of the value chain. The value chain in manufacturing can be a powerful, viral adoption tool. Sigma are slowly circling the top of the tree (Airbus, Pratt, Siemens etc), slowly circling the base of the tree (Additive Industries, two unnamed OEM's) and integrating into the trunk (Materialise, Ansys)
No other competitor is close to this kind of broad exposure for the niche market Sigma resides in.
I have said before and will say again what is happening in the company and its developments is diverging from the daily action. At some point that will break, and that moment is getting closer...
Obviously this is good news for Sigma Labs. Whilst the company needs to get bulk sales it can't get there without evaluation and it is encouraging to see these RTE contracts coming on a more regular basis. Encouraging also to see them at OEM level which is the ideal sales route long term. Japan also adds a nice new dimension, an achievement sown long ago when people dismissed the international sales channel agents. Just a dot that was indeed connected i expect.
It is now not a case of 'IF' but 'WHEN" for this company
oh..and btw
...according to the most recent Wohlers’ Report, Japan has the third biggest industrial AM machine install base in the world.
There is an article about sigma (albeit in German) page 28/29 of the magazine
Development at our partner MTC as they open new metal AM hub
https://www.tctmagazine.com/3d-printing-news/mtc-metal-additive-manufacturing-hub-aerospace/
So how would you explain the multitude of machines deployed around the world on the oct 14 presentation? Theres a big map showing you locations of present installations. They didnt pass and move on. The machines are still there.
Perhaps it is worth reviewing a few of the things that were actually said in the last call, rather than simply sucking up what others purport was said. It gives a bit of clarity into, amongst other things, time frames and expectations.
So products like those are always going to be evolving and improving in response to new customer and technology requirements and insights.
The way the Rapid Test and Evaluation Program works is that we and the customer agree to a 20% upfront down payment for our product and agree to a reciprocal test protocol that the customer defines roughly as what technical outcome is necessary for us to conclude that we ought to buy PrintRite3D for our production machines. And the customer then pays for a third-party laboratory to use CAT scans, destructive testing, and other means to confirm or refute, Sigma's parts diagnosis from the sample runs we do.
My first take away from this program is actually that Sigma is really capable of being rapid, a typical Rapid Test and Evaluation. Installation takes less than three hours and then teaming with the customer, we can print -- begin to print the parts required for the evaluation to take place that day. It takes several days or weeks to complete those runs
My second take away from this is that our customers in the outside laboratories appear to define the word rapid by using geological time as their standard
We hope to bring the first closed loop control in the market in the next 12 to 18 months
First to support high-technology sale, a small company really needs third-party verification it's product performance. There is a lot of vapor sold in this world and [indiscernible] to provide hard data and credible proof that the claims one makes for our product are true. So to this end, over the past 8 months we’ve been expanding our presence and our participation with leading influential and important additive manufacturing third-party centers of excellence.
In the United States, Sigma entered into a Cooperative Research agreement, CRADA, with the National Institute of Standards and Technology which uses PrintRite as an analytical tool for developing industry standards and we hope becoming a standard in and of itself. So while we have avoided research or R&D customers, we have gone to these institutes because they become third-party confirmation and verification of what our product does as they release white papers and other information to the market. We consider this a very important building block for our credibility.
So it's our hope that expectation reports flowing out of these three entities will get the data, the substantiation and examples of PrintRite has proven necessary means to measure and to assure in-process quality. And also we hope to become the quality assurance standard in and of itself.
So as you can see your company has done many of the important things it takes to build a successful company. And indeed you and we will certainly measure Sigma in the coming two years by the speed of market adoption and sales dollars. This stage it's my test, by the way, now to tap [ph] and temper expectations with the reminder that we’re a small company selling to a very large end-user companies and very large OEMs. We are selling into a market composed of large mature companies and each one of them is trying to foster what is still an emerging market in the 3D metal serial production.
So such a market really is unlikely to act with speed or agility, although one or two within might.
The average folks we’ve talked with so far with them after having 1 to 3 test units functioning ultimately be able to decide whether to order our products in units or tens of units. So this means that major accounts in the Rapid Test and Evaluation Program may be installed on only 1 to 3 machines in the course of 2019 and you have the potential for significant multiple machine orders in the following year and that’s the market that we are in.
So the first major indicator of success in 2019 and the measure that we will be looking closely at is how many Rapid Test and Evaluation accounts are in place with companies with whom success could mean 20 to 40 machine orders in the next 24 months thereafter.
Q+A
Okay. And the last question is how do you see -- how do you guys think about the pipeline for more RTEs, and how -- and what kind of visibility do you think the shareholders can get on that?
John Rice
Well, my personal hope is that we’d be able to average having in selling one of -- sort of one of those a month for the balance of the year. Things never work that way, but it -- but in terms of an average that may very well be spot on.
Its not even logical thought to me. All it will show in that case is your q+a sucks, its slow, its inefficient in scale, its expensive (especially in scale) and the fact u have to measure each of your 3d part to check they are safe because they are all different is about as laughable as you can get.
So bring it on, use it to check. Its not the reason they havent bought on scale yet, thats much more likely around them understanding how a pivotal change in a long standing part of manufacturing will affect them, how it works and more importantly how they will incorporate it into their new strategy of production. It may well coexist for a while, but it is the way companies WILL go (be it using sigma or whoever -still waiting) and they will have to go or will lose major share to customers who are faster, more accurate and more efficient in the build using IPQA.
It is because post process q/a is so slow, so expensive, so drastically inefficient in a digital future that it is so vulnerable. The market just needs to push into much more production than its in presently
All that and u didnt realise my post was about RFB? I want people to understand his motives
What good advice for investors
“I am an engineer (not AM). I don’t believe I would let an opinion board sway my opinion about anything to do with the tools I use for my job. I give these AM engineers a little more credit and assume they deal in facts, not rumors, positive or negative.”
Especially rumours and sensationalisations from those who post opposing messages on different boards 3 minutes apart in an effort to day trade on panic
Rfb is a moderator now so it will probably be taken down again, but people should know
Sigma has not been rejevted by every single customer. A simple bare faced lie for effect
Sigmas technology is still in testing and evaluation with many
Sigma management has done an exceptional job turning an r+d company into a well placed commercial company who has multiple tier 1 compaines paying it to evaluate its technology for use as they start the strategise their am production
This dot was connected a long time back, still got legs it seems.
I posted a few hints on post #
63128 suggesting may be Oerlikon. I still feel it is
The post was supposed to link to a new linkedin post from Sigma Labs. Those with access can catch it i guess
Awww, did a pointless, irrelevant, unspecific, baseless, uninformative post on here upset you?
.... welcome to our world
Loads of posters on this board will say its the worst sale ever
The one overlooked aspect of the time it takes for evaluations to occour, for internal hoops to be jumped, for engineers to feel comfortable, for budgets to be approved, is that once entrenched, printrite3d will be in for the long haul, especially given its proven ability to adapt, change and grow with its user base
Morf3D are almost complete tripling their operational and manufacturing capacity
I expect they will utilise PR3D when running a proper production facility. This only takes them to 30 odd machines but its a nod to production over r+d. Their connections to Boeing will only grow this number i am sure