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Agree with You Red.
Keith should be in Town in Sweden today. They always make some videos on the meetings.
Let's see what's the news this time.
jukka
Did You see this in the Taipan Res. report? On page 4:
"Significant new oil discoveries in onshore Kenya in 2
separate basins (Ngamia & Twiga Lokichar, Sabisa
Turkana Basins)."
So they count Sabisa as a significant new discovery. Let's see, if that's true.
dougi,
I get mails from Sophia from this address: Sophia Shane <sophias@namdo.com>
RSI (14) 29.57 and Slow Stochastic 12.16.
Sell pressure starts to ease.
Let's wait we have something to celebrate. I hope the occasion comes.
Same thing but the reverse way. In the oil business every office needs a kitchen, an oil kitchen. Sabisa has told the kitchen is there. Oil is boiling. Now the office needs its officer.
Post 3000 tamtam. You owe a beer for everybody! Congratulations!
If you want to have quickly the RNS from Tullow you can get them emailed from here. In areas where Tullow is the operator they always come from Tullow first:
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-home.html?newsSource=RNS&nameCode=&headlineId=&ftseIndex=§orCode=0530&text=&newsPerPage=50&rbDate=released&preDate=Today
This link shows 50 latest stories. You can choose between 20 and 200 stories.
And further…
Tullow has reported indications of hydrocarbons in unconsolidated sands with the wildcat Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia. The well will now be side-tracked to complete logging and analysis. At the Ngamia-1 exploration well in Kenya, a constrained well test produced 281 bopd from the Lower Lokhone sandstones using artificial lift. A further five shallower intervals will now be flow-tested. We view the results from East Africa as an incremental positive in that the Sabisa-1 well demonstrates potential for a working petroleum system in a previous undrilled basin while the Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may, contrary to earlier diagnosis, prove commercial. Given the interim nature of the results, we are leaving our risk-weighted group valuation of 1453p per share unchanged for now.
Sabisa-1 demonstrates potential for working petroleum system
The Sabisa-1 well was drilled in the frontier South Omo basin, which is part of the East African Rift system. The well was testing a prospect in a delta depositional setting close to a basin-bounding fault. The high risk exploration well reported indications of hydrocarbons beneath a thick, unstable clay section. Indications of rich gas were registered but this does not preclude an oil discovery at this location (the heaviest hydrocarbon molecule that equipment can and did measure is C4). The Pliocene sands from which hydrocarbon shows were reported are unconsolidated in nature. This can be positive for the reservoir quality in terms of porosity and permeability. The well is now being side-tracked to gather a more comprehensive set of logs for analysis. This operation is expected to complete in late May. While interim results do not suggest a discovery of the scale of last year's Ngamia discovery in Kenya, it is a significant result in the context of a basin that is previously undrilled and therefore without guiding calibration data for seismic interpretation.
Lower Lokhone sands at Ngamia may be commercial
Tullow, the operator of Ngamia-1, had previously assigned zero net pay or commerciality to the Lower Lokhone oil-bearing reservoir sands. A flow-test on an interval in these sands produced light oil at a rate of 281 bopd with the aid of a pump, meaning earlier estimates for contingent resources at Ngamia-1 could be revised upwards. The flow test was constrained at surface with Ngamia-1 drilled as an exploration, rather than development or production, well. Future wells in the Lower Lokhone can be optimised to improve production rates from the oil-bearing zones in this formation.
Tullow and its partners will now flow test five intervals in the Upper Lokhone formation, which proved productive at the Twiga South-1 well in the same Lokichar basin.
The drilling rig from Paipai-1 is being mobilised to the Etuko prospect in the Lokichar basin in Kenya. A well on Etuko is due to spud on schedule in the first half of May.
http://www.davy.ie/davy/article.htm?id=Davy_Morning_Equity_Briefing_15042013_moneBLinkS0016C0001Cmp.htm
15 April 2013 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") provides an update on progress with the Sabisa-1 well in Ethiopia and announces a successful first flow test of the Ngamia-1 well in Kenya.
Ethiopia - Sabisa-1 encounters hydrocarbons requiring logging and further evaluation
The Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block in Southern Ethiopia has been drilled to a total depth of 1,810 metres. Hydrocarbon indications in sands beneath a thick claystone top seal have been recorded whilst drilling, but hole instability issues have required the drilling of a sidetrack to comprehensively log and sample these zones of interest. The sidetrack recently commenced and a result is now expected in late May. Tullow (50%) is the operator of this well with Africa Oil (30%) and Marathon Oil (20%) having non-operated interests.
Kenya - first of six Ngamia-1 well tests flows at 281 bopd
At the Ngamia-1 well in Block 10BB in Kenya, the first of six drill stem tests has now been completed. The test was carried out in the Lower Lokhone formation. The well flowed 281 barrels of 30 degree API oil per day using a Progressive Cavity Pump. The other tests will be carried out in the Auwerwer reservoirs (formerly Upper Lokhone) which produced very well in the recent tests at the Twiga South-1 well. The mobilization of the drilling rig from Paipai in Block 10A to the Etuko (previously Kamba) location in Block 10BB in Kenya continues on schedule with drilling expected to commence in the first half of May. Tullow operates the Ngamia-1 well and Africa Oil (50%) has a non-operated interest.
Angus McCoss, Exploration Director of Tullow Oil plc, commented today,
"The Sabisa-1 well has proved to be technically challenging, as is often the case in frontier basins, and the well now requires a side-track to redrill, log and sample the objective section. Nevertheless, we are encouraged by the hydrocarbon indications which provide emerging evidence for a working petroleum system in the previously undrilled South Omo Basin. The results from the first flow test at Ngamia are also very encouraging and prove the first potentially commercial flow from the Lower Lokhone reservoir section. The remaining tests in the Auwerwer reservoir units will give us a fuller indication of Ngamia's production potential."
Analysts want to be right. They can make wild guesses to be right. They are remembered if they are right. Trustworthy? Only, if he is right. You can follow him here: https://twitter.com/ianlcooper
Sweet Tweet from Ian Cooper 18 h ago >
Ian Cooper ?@ianlcooper 18h
keep an eye on africa oil story $AOI.v and $AOIFF. Oh, and Tullow, too. That story is gonna explode.
Hi tamtam,
to get me right. I wasn´t looking where Tultule-1 is. I was wondering why has it been taken away from the drilling candidate map for 2013. It was in the earlier February version.
cheers jukka
You have the newest version of CP of AOI on their site as well:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.africaoilcorp.com%2Fi%2Fpdf%2F2013-03-18_CP.pdf
A slight change on the slide 13 with the "2013 Potential Drilling Candidates" They do not show Tultule-1 on the map even when it is mentioned on the list beside. Maybe postponed till the next year.
cheers jukka
tamtam and douginil,
Something to hope for. Good luck for everybody!
cheers jukka
You could listen the AOI presentation with the CEO Keith Hill once again. In the video you hear two sentences I think are of great importance: 08:12 "…what gets us excited is: every one of these fault blocks(?) here is a potential oil field… " and soon from 09:00 on: "…Omo is really our sexiest block…"
Adding to those two sentences a bit later "we personally believe the value of our company should double overnight if we make a discovery here, and the important thing is not necessarily that we find a big oil field with Sabisa but that we find petroleum system…"
Superoilhunter,
I was listening the presentation having the PDF from Tullow's last year open all the time. Could you be able to download the '2012_full_year_results_presentation.pdf' from the other link given? It contains the same slides as the web cast presentation.
cheers jukka
Hi tamtam,
the number 32 with the sudden 'x-factor', I like it too, but from which time period we should count it if it ever would come true? From now on, maybe not" Maybe from that that period the share price was as its lowests in the year 2009 (0.84 dollars) or 2011 (1.27 can be found in Google Finance).
What say you, what's the verdict?
cheers jukka
Hi douginil (and everybody else of course),
have you taken a look on Tullows presentation? There is a webcast you can follow the pdf of the year 2012 with. Excellent is e.g. 'Campaign Approach to Exploration: East Africa Example' but many others. You can take from the pop-up menu the people you wish to listen. Just listened Angus McCoss, the Exploration Director of Tullow who speaks from 38:47 to about 59 minutes in the web cast.
grab in, here are the links (and you have any comments, would like to listen to them)
cheers jukka
http://www.media-server.com/m/p/aw42ciie
http://www.tullowoil.com/files/pdf/results/2012_full_year_results_presentation.pdf
Yeah, douginil. Stick it sticky, stickit.
Happy to help red.
cheers jukka
Great work douginil,
I hope the videos have helped you as the few I have seen helped me. I will take a look at them, slowly one by one. I strongly do recommend these videos to anybody who does not yet have the skills to understand exactly what AOI is doing underground.
As in the latter post was mentioned links maybe do not open by some computers. That occures sometimes.(haven't tested these yet) if that happens, you can always try to use different browser application. Download it, install it, use it. It might help.
Antway, all the best for everybody, and many thanks again for douginil for grabbing material to get an info library. Let's see how the future looks like when it gets really aoish.
PS Thanks for the next poster's (CHM_760) collecting link too.
Twiga looks good: With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd.
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES TWIGA
FLOW RATE OF 2,812 BOPD
February 21, 2013 (AOI–TSXV, AOI–NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil” or the “Company”) announces that the testing program at the Twiga South-1 oil discovery in Kenya has now been successfully completed. The fifth and final Drill Stem Test (“DST”) flowed at a rate of 461 bopd bringing the cumulative flow rate up to 2,812 bopd, constrained by surface equipment. With optimised equipment these flow rates would increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd.
High quality 37 degree API waxy sweet crude was flowed from all three zones in the Auwerwer formation with good quality reservoir sands encountered. The well has been suspended as a potential future production well.
As with DST 4A, a Progressive Cavity Pump (PCP) was used to artificially lift at DST 5, whilst DST 3 flowed naturally. Two additional zones were tested in the tight reservoir rock at the base of the well and, as anticipated, both produced at sub-commercial rates but confirmed the presence of movable oil.
These results provide encouragement for the forthcoming testing program at Ngamia-1A where at least four zones are planned to be tested using the Weatherford 804 rig. Testing activities are expected to commence in March and complete by the end of May.
Keith Hill, President and CEO of Africa Oil Corp., commented, “By demonstrating the good reservoir quality of the Auwerwer sands, we take a large step forward in our program to establish a commercially viable oil development project in Kenya. We look forward to the upcoming tests at Ngamia which we believe will also give similar flow rates and provide evidence on the lateral distribution of these key reservoir sands.”
Theepan Jothilingam over at Nomura tells:
"However, for Tullow's share price to re-rate, it means management will need to deliver prices that are in line or above existing NAVs. From a tactical perspective, we note the more meaningful results from the offshore exploration programme from Cote d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Mozambique, Norway and French Guiana are H2 loaded, while exposure to the onshore East Africa rift play can be gained through Africa Oil.
http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/2732-tullow-oil-plc-second-to-ophir-energy-and-premier-oil-plc-5543534
Hi Viking,
If I remember correctly API 37 degrees is very close to the optimum. The higher the better in general, but from sudden level on it gets more difficult for the refining process.
Take a look on the video links I gave some time ago.
cheers jukka
If you ever need an explanation on oil terminology you can start here:
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/
It is quite handy. Here what they say themselves about the glossary:
"The Oilfield Glossary: Where the Oil Field Meets the Dictionary
Español | English
The Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary is an evergreen, instant reference that takes up no space on your bookshelf and offers many special features:
Comprehensive: definitions for major oilfield activities
Accessible: definitions for both the technical generalist and the expert
Accurate: definitions reviewed by technical experts
Illustrated: high-quality, full-color photographs and illustrations clarify many definitions
Thorough: citations of significant technical papers for further reading
Versatile: streamlined navigation, enhanced search capability and key resource links
Interactive: on-line capabilities allow for continual expansion and updating based on reader input.
Don't just take our word for it. The Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary has received Awards of Excellence from the Business Marketing Association and the Society for Technical Communication. Launched in 1998, the Oilfield Glossary, which includes more than 4600 entries, continues to expand and improve. Drill into this reservoir of terminology!"
Take a look here, (Title: "The Tests" written by Warnado1)
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AAOIFF&it=ne&submitted=1
Quote:
"Test #5 on the which is ongoing.
On the shallowest test to be conducted. Given that we now have 491bopd controlled/restricted with pump and 1,860bopd flowing naturally lets stick the pump (control) back on because we know we can produce over 500bopd which is what we told the market but we could also "tweak" more and if we produce more we have impressed the market but also carefully bearing in mind that the elections are coming!
I think this last test has the potential to be the best test yet at Twiga-1 and Tullow are in total control of the flow rate. Look at the shallow depths and flow rates in Uganda, look at the initial discovery depth at Ngamia-1, look at the shallow play prospects on 10BB and look at the mention of the "light rig for flow testing activities"."
Anyway, to your info:
You can order all the news directly from Africa Oil to your emails if you want. Maybe you know it already, but in case you don't.
cheers to everybody
jukka
This came to me from AfricaOil right now:
AFRICA OIL RANKED NUMBER ONE ON TSX VENTURE 50
February 13, 2013 (AOI–TSXV, AOI–NASDAQ OMX) … Africa Oil Corp. (“Africa Oil” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has achieved the number one ranking on the TSX Venture 50 for 2012. TSX Venture 50 is a ranking of strong performers on the TSX Venture Exchange with measurements including share price performance, market cap growth, trading volume and analyst coverage, etc.
Keith Hill, President and CEO of Africa Oil, commented, “With over 2,200 companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, we couldn’t be more proud to be ranked number one overall and also number one in the oil and gas subset. Our new oil discoveries in Kenya have garnered world-wide attention, allowing us to deliver a 342% return over the course of the year and attract coverage from 18 oil and gas analysts. We look forward to another successful year in 2013.”
My feeling was that it is the most fundamental we can get at this point.
Okay, thanks Red,
this came to my mind also. Would be very logical. Also small investors can't move the price for long.
So, we are still at the airport. Not very many economic class seats left and the business class get soon filled. Somehow I hear the engines already running. Then to the runway.
cheers jukka
PS The only thing: can we fly on crude oil, was it not kerosine we need…
A bit weak reaction today. What's your verdict, how come?
Can it be affected of these things: Pai-Pai was a Bye-Bye. Disappointment for many. There were too many rumors about it.
Twiga, immediate wishes were loaded for the 800 meters as well. People wanted to be surprised by a second Ngamia till the end.
Elections coming, somebody is steeling the whole company or at least its assets.
What do you think the next steps are? What could be the share price in three months, or in the summer? At the year's end? Do you have any logical suggestions?
cheers jukka
Could that have something to do with the very high gas pressure? My guess is: Yes it can.
Does anybody have different opinions?
Hi douginil again, here the missing parts:
2.1.
Hi douginil,
add this to your list too:
http://www.youtube.com/user/llau13/videos
If you find anything particularly interesting among the videos also in the old ones please tell us.
cheers jukka
You are welcome dn.
cheers jukka
Hi douginil,
I couldn't find a real directory but organised them all to my bookmarks by clicking one by one from the side windows which appeared in Youtube. Quite a lot manual work, but worth it. Can you do it?
As you say it is fascinating and brings the understanding of the whole oil exploring to a second level. One starts to see the world where is no light, beneath the surface.
It wouldnt exclude the other depending how regular the anticline is. Isnt it so that the gas while appearing on top of oil covers normally a smaller area under the unpermeable cap rock. But can it not be in the same collecting rock, the gas just goes higher because of its lighter molecules in comparr to the oil? In my understanding it does not have to be a different strata.
What do you think? (I am a baby boy in this.) lol.
cheers jukka
Hit on the centern part of an anticline?