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It turns out that Relypsa Inc. (NASDAQ:RLYP) largest institutional shareholders are buying more stock as news coming out of the company is turning more bullish.
While Relypsa Inc. is often caught up in takeover rumors surrounding firms from AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), to Merck (NYSE:MRK), Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and its partner Sanofi (NYSE:SNY), recently the stock is up on real news.
First, on May 23rd Relypsa, Inc. rose on new data that the company presented surrounding its drug Veltassa which showed the following:
“Patients with heart failure and chronic kidney disease often have restricted fluid and sodium intake, as these may cause congestive symptoms.
We presented new data suggesting Veltassa may bind and remove sodium as well as potassium in the gastrointestinal tract, which may be relevant for these patients.”
Source: GlobeNewswire
The new data revealed that:
* Daily administration of Veltassa resulted in a dose-related decrease in mean urine sodium compared with placebo (p=0.009 across Veltassa doses).
* No serious adverse events were reported, and no study participants discontinued treatment because of an adverse event.
Second, and most urgently, Relypsa' s only competitor in the Hyperkalemia space, AstraZeneca's acquired ZS-9, was given a complete response letter (CRL) from the FDA, which in English means, a full rejection of the filing for approval.
The CRL surrounded manufacturing issues with ZS-9, not clinical data. However, that CRL will push the ZS-9 product launch out at least another year and the drug still has issues surrounding its tendency to create sodium in the blood, which is a critical side effect for patients that have Hyperkalemia and may mean the drug will be prevented from treating the largest portion of the market -- chronic cases.
Hopes have now crept in that the ZS-9 drug, if it gets approved, will get a black box warning surrounding its side effect of creating sodium in the blood. The black box is the harshest warning the FDA can issue.
But now we got more news on Relypsa.
INSTITUTIONS ARE BUYING
The good news surrounding Relypsa Inc. has pushed the stock up 40% in recent weeks and the buying appears to be coming from the company's largest institutional shareholders.
While the largest shareholder, Orbimed, saw no change, the next seven largest holders increased their holdings. In total, of the eleven largest holders, eight bought more stock, two sold stock and one was unchanged. The result is an increase of nearly 3.2 million shares on a total stock float of just 31.8 million shares. Institutional shareholders own more than 85% of the Relypsa, Inc. stock as of this writing, and 11% is held by insiders.
Relypsa Inc. (NASDAQ:RLYP) has renewed respect among analysts now that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has unexpectedly delayed approval of AstraZeneca’s (ADR) (NYSE:AZN) competing hyperkalemia treatment, ZS-9. On Friday, Wedbush reaffirmed its Outperform rating and price target of $51 on Relypsa, citing improving investor sentiment. The stock closed at $19.96 on Friday.
Relypsa markets a hyperkalemia drug called Veltassa - the first treatment for the disease approved in over 50 years. Hyperkalemia is characterized by dangerously high potassium levels in the bloodstream and is commonly found in patients suffering from underlying conditions of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or heart failure (HF). Some drugs, including RAAS inhibitors like ACE inhibitors or ARBs, which are often prescribed to CKD or HF patients, can cause hyperkalemia as a side-effect. The condition results in abnormal heart rhythms and can be potentially life-threatening. Veltassa was approved by the FDA in October 2015 as an alternative to an age-old medicine called Kayexalate, which has been commonly linked with adverse events including intestinal cell death, gastrointestinal bleeding, and constipation in the past. Veltassa itself carried FDA’s strictest black-box warning which cited its tendency to interact adversely with other oral drugs if taken six hours apart, stating that it is “not appropriate for rapid correction of severe hyperkalemia because lowering of serum potassium may take hours to days.” The drug’s launch was disappointing at best, with physicians hesitant in prescribing a new, risky drug that would require changing of “the habit of a lifetime,” as put by Relypsa CEO John Orwin in the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
Late on May 26, however, Relypsa got a major boost when AstraZeneca announced that its closely-watched hyperkalemia alternative, ZS-9, had been rejected by the FDA. The agency issued a complete response letter (CRL) to the drug-maker, citing need for fixing some manufacturing issues although no additional clinical trials were asked for. Analysts believe the snag would delay ZS-9’s launch until at least 2017, which is great news for Veltassa because ZS-9 was expected to not carry FDA’s boxed warning, making it a possibly better alternative drug.
Wedbush analyst Liana Moussatos said in a recent research note that ZS-9’s delay will give Relypsa more than a year to establish Veltassa as the preferred chronic treatment for hyperkalemia. “Since then we have observed increasing investor interest in Veltassa and RLYP stock value has increased,” she added. Note that the addressable hyperkalemia market is huge; about 3 million patients suffer from the condition in the US. Veltassa is priced at about $595 for a 30-day supply or over $7,000-a-year per patient. The chronic treatment can result in a staggering market size of $21 billion.
She further said that the bear arguments against Veltassa, which have been making rounds since ZS-9 was slapped with a CRL, are starting to sound “hollow.” “Since the ZS-9 CRL we have heard bear arguments about Veltassa having many adverse events reported to the FDA; however, the FDA has not issued any warnings. We believe this is due to adverse events being common in CKD and heart failure patients and not being considered to be drug related,” she commented. “Veltassa is a nonabsorbed bead-shaped polymer that binds potassium and releases calcium. The most common adverse event in clinical trials was constipation. By contrast, we anticipate drug-related adverse events (especially sodium related hypertension and edema) to increase with longer-term use of ZS-9 due to its mechanism which elevates sodium in these universally sodium restricted CKD and heart failure patients.”
The analyst further dispelled concerns that the specialty pharmacy hub (Veltassa Konnect) for prescribing Veltassa may be inconvenient for doctors due to hassles like extra paperwork, compared to the expected retail prescribing of ZS-9. “We understand that reimbursement hurdles are likely to be the same for ZS-9 as for Veltassa and that while the specialty pharmacy hub (Veltassa Konnect) provides patient assistance when payors require prior authorization for initial prescriptions, retail patients have no such assistance when a retail pharmacist tells them their prescription was rejected by their insurance company. Consequently, we see the potential for a higher rate of unfilled prescriptions for ZS-9, if approved,” she said.
Ms. Moussatos also believes there is possibility that Relypsa will be able to get FDA’s boxed warning removed from Veltassa’s label by the end of this year. The company recently applied for a label change with the FDA based on new Phase 1 trial data of Veltassa from drug-drug interaction studies. “Relypsa recently announced submission of a sNDA to the FDA with data from the Phase 1 drug-drug interaction (DDI) study that showed no reduction in activity when dosing of Veltassa and certain drugs commonly prescribed for CKD and heart failure were separated by three hours and no clinically meaningful interaction for many drugs when co-administered with Veltassa. Given these results, we believe Relypsa is likely to be successful in requesting the FDA remove the black box warning, reduce the drugdrug separation time from 6 hours to 3 hours and having the DDI results included in a standard section of the package insert,” the analyst stated.
Note that many physicians are in the process of changing their age-old practice of using traditional intermittent hyperkalemia treatment to chronic add-on therapy. Relypsa’s commercial chief Scott Garland said in the last earnings call that a vast majority of nephrologists and cardiologists, some 73-97%, are aware of Veltassa and the drug’s script trend will increase gradually but surely. The latest events suggest a much faster pickup. Mizuho’s Irina Rivkind Koffler has also been optimistic about Veltassa’s future prospects in a research note. "Veltassa has demonstrated a number of cardio-renal protective properties at recent medical conferences like its ability to also lower blood pressure, sodium, and aldosterone levels that we think may be attractive to buyers. Additionally, with uncertainty around the ZS-9 launch Veltassa could have scarcity value. Mgmt also indicated that some payers are more receptive to coverage since they were previously waiting for ZS-9 approval to make a decision,” she said.
Veltassa is expected to pull in about $1.4 billion in annual sales eventually, making Relypsa an attractive takeover target. Ms. Koffler also stroked the renewed possibility of Relypsa acquisition by larger players with improved Veltassa prospects. Sanofi SA, which is already partnering with Relypsa for Veltassa’s US marketing, AstraZeneca, which acquired ZS-9 along with its maker ZS Pharma for $2.7 billion in November, Pfizer, and Biogen have been cited as possible acquirers.
BTIG affirms Relypsa (Nasdaq: RLYP) at Buy with a price target of $35 following recent conversations with management.
Analyst Timothy Chiang commented, We recently hosted a Q&A session with Relypsa’s senior management team to discuss a number of key items including the recent CRL received by AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) on ZS-9 and what impact that will have on its Veltassa (for the treatment of hyperkalemia). In addition, we discussed other items including the current reimbursement environment for Veltassa, as well as what the key inflection points might be.
In sum, while payor headwinds are likely to remain, we think it may now be less of challenge to gain formulary access, especially now that its competitor (ZS-9) has been delayed.
We expect Veltassa prescription trends to continue to rise steadily in 2016, with a pick up occurring in the second half as insurance coverage is attained. In addition, we expect an FDA decision within the next 4-6 months on the Co.’s proposed labeling changes (to narrow the dosing separation window for Veltassa with other medications). Overall, we remain positive on RLYP shares and believe Veltassa is well-positioned to generate meaningful sales longer term.
I am as well, but maybe just a reflection of the currently out-of-favor biotech sector. I am not sure that ZS-9 will ever get approved....I think AZN can address the CRL manufacturing issues but may have a bigger hurdle to get over once the FDA reviews on the trial data (or lack thereof). Future for RLYP seems quite strong now (was good before the CRL but even better now). Just need to see shorts cover so the stock can really move up in earnest now.
I think there were 3 analysts who either reiterated or upgraded their price targets over the weekend...a holiday weekend at that. Looks like a lot of eyes/attention on RLYP now. Picked up quite a few more shares this morning - market cap is way too low now given their prospects IMO.
Link to Citi comments - worth reading:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cjdj4neW0AAlQP-.jpg
Relypsa Inc (RLYP.O), a U.S. developer of treatments for high blood potassium, is exploring a sale following overtures from a number of potential buyers, according to several people familiar with the matter.
Relypsa shares jumped as much as 68 percent on the news on Thursday, giving it a market capitalization of close to $1 billion. The stock was up 50 percent at $21.78 percent at mid-afternoon. Relypsa is working with investment bank Centerview Partners Holdings LLC to review offers, the people said this week. The discussions are in their early stages and may not lead to a sale, said the sources, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
Relypsa declined to comment. Centerview did not respond to a request for comment.
Relypsa and its primary competitor, ZS Pharma, are racing to develop treatments for hyperkalemia, or excessive potassium in the blood. Some analysts estimate the market to be worth about $6 billion.
Interest in Relypsa has picked up in recent months after the $2.7 billion sale of ZS Pharma to AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L), the people said. Several companies that unsuccessfully bid for ZS Pharma have reached out to Relypsa, the sources said.
Relypsa, based in Redwood City, California, received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval in October for the sale of its primary hyperkalemia drug Veltessa. ZS Pharma's rival drug, ZS-9, is awaiting FDA approval.
The sources said they expect ZS-9 to outperform Veltessa over time.
Relypsa's stock has been caught in the recent biotech sell-off, dropping from more than $30 in August to around $14 early Thursday.
Merck & Co Inc (MRK.N), Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and Biogen Inc (BIIB.O) have all expressed interest in acquiring undervalued biotechnology companies.
Unlike some of its biotech peers, Relypsa has strong finances, with nearly $300 million of cash and near-term investments as of September.
About 17 percent of Relypsa's stock is owned by its largest investor, investment firm OrbiMed Advisors LLC.
we expect pharma interest in owning RLYP to materially accelerate - Citi comments after zs9 CRL
This was from December, I didn't realize before posting. Sorry for any confusion, but I believe the BO price target is in line and consistent with others I have seen. Market cap is currently way too low!
Published yesterday:
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ:RLYP) in a research report report published on Monday morning. Cantor Fitzgerald currently has a $41.00 target price on the stock.
RLYP has been the subject of several other reports. Wedbush lowered their price objective on Relypsa from $52.00 to $51.00 and set an outperform rating for the company in a research report on Monday, May 9th. Citigroup Inc. lowered their price objective on Relypsa from $45.00 to $38.00 in a research report on Friday, February 19th. Raymond James initiated coverage on Relypsa in a research report on Friday, April 1st. They set a market perform rating for the company. BTIG Research reaffirmed a buy rating and set a $45.00 price objective on shares of Relypsa in a research report on Tuesday, January 26th. Finally, Cowen and Company reaffirmed a buy rating on shares of Relypsa in a research report on Sunday, April 17th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, two have issued a hold rating, twelve have assigned a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. The stock presently has a consensus rating of Buy and an average price target of $36.36.
Relypsa (NASDAQ:RLYP) opened at 14.14 on Monday. Relypsa has a 12 month low of $10.26 and a 12 month high of $37.45. The company’s market cap is $632.72 million. The firm’s 50-day moving average is $17.00 and its 200-day moving average is $19.12.
Relypsa (NASDAQ:RLYP) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, May 4th. The company reported ($1.26) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the Thomson Reuters’ consensus estimate of ($1.46) by $0.20. The business had revenue of $12.40 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.88 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted ($0.78) earnings per share. On average, analysts anticipate that Relypsa will post ($5.91) EPS for the current fiscal year.
In other Relypsa news, CFO Kristine M. Ball bought 7,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, March 16th. The stock was acquired at an average cost of $12.15 per share, with a total value of $85,050.00. Following the purchase, the chief financial officer now owns 28,290 shares in the company, valued at approximately $343,723.50. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Also, Director Thomas J. Schuetz bought 30,000 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, March 15th. The shares were acquired at an average cost of $13.39 per share, with a total value of $401,700.00. Following the completion of the purchase, the director now owns 33,962 shares in the company, valued at approximately $454,751.18.
Several institutional investors have modified their holdings of the company. Schwab Charles Investment Management Inc. increased its position in shares of Relypsa by 21.4% in the fourth quarter. Schwab Charles Investment Management Inc. now owns 106,548 shares of the company’s stock worth $3,020,000 after buying an additional 18,770 shares during the period. Wells Fargo & Company MN increased its position in Relypsa by 2,235.5% in the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo & Company MN now owns 236,987 shares of the company’s stock valued at $6,715,000 after buying an additional 226,840 shares during the last quarter. California Public Employees Retirement System purchased a new position in Relypsa during the fourth quarter valued at $3,826,000. Jennison Associates increased its position in Relypsa by 0.5% in the third quarter. Jennison Associates now owns 303,767 shares of the company’s stock valued at $5,623,000 after buying an additional 1,567 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Convector Capital Management LP purchased a new position in Relypsa during the fourth quarter valued at $1,326,000.
Relypsa, Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of polymer-based drugs to treat conditions that are often overlooked and undertreated, but that can have a serious impact on patients’ lives and even be life-threatening. The Company’s first drug candidate is Veltassa (NASDAQ:RLYP) for oral suspension, or Veltassa, for the treatment of hyperkalemia.
As Veltassa Continues To Grow, BTIG Still Buying Relypsa
Jim Swanson. Bezinga Staff Writer
May 17, 2016 8:12am
Relypsa Inc
RLYP has released monthly Veltassa prescription trends for April, with paid prescriptions rising to 928 in the fourth full month following the launch of the drug and the company having dispensed 1,216 starter packs.
BTIG’s Timothy Chiang maintains a Buy rating on the company, with a price target of $35.
Veltassa Growing
“We believe the launch of Veltassa will continue to show gradual increases in paid monthly prescriptions, with more meaningful increases expected in 2H16,” Chiang stated.
The analyst maintains the CY16, CY17 and CY18 Veltassa sales forecasts at $26.5 million, $84.5 million and $203 million, respectively.
The company is expected to see loss per share during CY16–CY18, turning breakeven in 2019 with an estimated EPS of $2.02 in 2020.
“Post the Co.’s recent debt financing, cash and short term investments totalled ~$336 million as of the end of 1Q, which we think will be sufficient to get the Co. through this year and 1H17,” Chiang mentioned.
Competition
Chiang expects the FDA approval decision for AstraZeneca plc (ADR)
AZN ZS-9 to come in by May 26. This product could be a potential competitor for Veltassa.
“While we expect Relypsa shares to remain volatile in front of this decision, we believe there is ample room for two hyperkalemia treatments, as our Veltassa sales forecasts reflect just low-to-mid single digit penetration in an addressable patient population of ~3 million patients,” the analyst added.
Relypsa's Veltassa Continues An Upward Trajectory Among Nephrologists But Familiarity And Use Is More Muted Among Cardiologists
ZUG, Switzerland, May 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the most recent monthly nephrology survey fielded at the end of April (n=112), the user base for Veltassa continues to expand with more than half of the nephrologists in trial mode. Current users have high satisfaction levels and physicians consistently report that a healthy number of their hyperkalemic patients are Veltassa candidates across all treatment settings. Overall the majority of nephrologists expect to increase their use of Veltassa in the near term and very few nephrologists do not see a role for Veltassa in their practice.
The six-hour dose separation requirement is noted as the leading disadvantage with nearly 90% of the respondents indicating that this does somewhat limit their use of Veltassa. This is largely consistent with feedback from cardiologists (n=93), although familiarity with Veltassa and trial rates are significantly lower among cardiologists compared to nephrologists. Both specialists agree that Veltassa is most beneficial as a long term therapy as it allows for the extended the use of ACE/ARB therapy in CKD/CHF patients.
European physicians may soon have access to Veltassa as well. Vifor Fresenius Medical Care Renal Pharma submitted a marketing authorization application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for Veltassa in late April. According to Market Dynamix: Hyperkalemia in the EU5, over 300 cardiologists and nephrologists reported that the unmet need for a new hyperkalemia treatment is high. Cardiologists estimate that 40% of their patients with CHF and CKD would be candidates for chronic treatment, the highest among various patient types prone to hyperkalemia. There are significant differences between the five major countries in terms of potassium resin use. Similar to the US market, nephrologists were significantly more familiar with pipeline agents compared to their cardiology counterparts.
May could introduce more paradigm shifting with the potential approval of AstraZeneca's ZS-9. Familiarity with ZS-9 has reached an all-time high among nephrologists with about 40% reporting high familiarity with the drug.
Wedbush analyst Liana Moussatos reiterated an Outperform rating and $51 price target on Relypsa, Inc. (NASDAQ: RLYP), saying the April prescriptions reflect physicians testing Veltassa prior to widespread change of practice. Moussatos also said with the FDA decision for potentially approving ZS-9 as an alternative potassium binder, they anticipate RLYP shares could appreciate due to decreased competition risk if ZS-9's label mentions adverse events such as edema and hypertension.
As expected, April launch metrics point to a gradual launch as physicians test Veltassa before wide adoption. In April, 1,216 patients received a free starter supply of Veltassa, 928 outpatient retail prescriptions were filled, and 288 hospital/institution Veltassa units were sold.
"Relypsa previously said that it anticipates a gradual launch ramp due to having to break new ground with physician practice as Veltassa is the first approved chronic hyperkalemia treatment and physicians are used to episodic treatment by discontinuing RAAS inhibitors and/or short-term treatment with sodium polystyrene sulfonate (SPS)," the analyst commented. "While we understand there are positive anecdotal comments from physicians testing Veltassa, we believe widespread use could take some time as we understand patients may visit their specialists every six months; however, our long-term view of Veltassa being a breakthrough and potential billion dollar treatment for hyperkalemia remains intact."
AstraZeneca rumored to be mulling Relypsa takeover, Daily Mail says AstraZeneca (AZN), which previously acquired ZS Pharma, is now rumored to be eyeing ZS's chief competitor, Relypsa (RLYP), according to the Daily Mail. Market talk was of a potential $46 per share offer for the developer of renal, cardiovascular and metabolic disease treatments, said the Daily Mail's "Market Report." Relypsa, which has been mentioned as a potential takeover target in several prior media reports, is up 2% in pre-market trading.
Below are a couple of posts (from another message board) which provides some insight on the Jakarta staffing that ITMSF has in place and is about to further ramp-up:
The Indonesia office is a hidden asset, and it is hard at first to appreciate its true value. While the fusion of the collected data is done in Canada and the US, the 70 people working in Jakarta are editors looking for anomalies in the 3D data using Intermap’s proprietary software.
Several competitors and Intermap have tried to automate the process over the years, but no one has been able to do so; it is impossible! You need a human cleaning the data, there is no way around it. None of their competitors have such an extensive operation, and this represents a significant competitive advantage for Intermap. It would take years for a competitor to (1) hire a team of 70 workers and (2) train them.
Additionally, the salary these workers are paid is a fraction of what a similar worker would be paid in North America. While 70 workers seems to be much, they are probably paid $5,000 a year, which is only $350,000. Definitely a great investment and not by any means a huge expense. Even if Intermap has to double their headcount in Jakarta to properly service the SDIs, that won’t move the needle.
Prokofiev
====
"Jakarta will include a large increase of people for software editors. Intermap increases or reduces the staffing in Jakarta as needed for data editing. The important factor here is that Jakarta staff are 1/12th the cost of North Americans. It’s a very cost effective facility. And so that is where the bulk of the hires will be."
The Intermap office is registered as PT Exsamap and per LinkedIn profiles, they have employees that have been with them for 11+ years (HR Manager). The Examap office runs 3 shifts (or did in 2008). Indonesia is a great low cost region and Intermap did well to place a team in this area vs say China. In addition, the exchange rate has gone from about 8000 Rp per USD 4 years ago to currently 13005 Rp per USD due to the strength of the dollar. Jakarta minimum wage is 3.1M per month which equates to $238 per month. Higher skill university graduates would make around $500 per month and people that stick with you for many years are at about $1000 per month. Minimum wages have risen 20-30% per year the past three years as well, but wage wise, Indonesia is considerably cheaper than China, Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia. I'm a bit biased as I moved to Indonesia in 2003 and run our US Corp office here. ; )
Intermap's Indonesia office could double or triple, and the OpEx difference wouldn't move the needle in a big way. You are right, that is a big advantage to have such an experienced staff.
Mark Gomes bought almost 1M ITMSF Shares. His email is below:
On February 9, Invesco announced the departure of Ian Hardacre, portfolio manager of Invesco's billion-dollar Trimark Canadian Fund. Trimark owned approximately 8 million shares of Intermap (ITMSF). According to my sources, Invesco did not attempt to contact Intermap. Instead, they simply hit the sell button.
So, 8 million shares flooded of Intermap the market. Incredibly, this happened on the heels of Intermap executing a $175 million megadeal.
For those who recall, ITMSF topped 60-cents after announcing the original Letter of Award. Obviously, a completed contract is more valuable. Initially, the market responded properly. Intermap instantly doubled... and I was still buying.
However, Invesco's shares were too much for buyers to quickly absorb. The stock lost momentum and buyers (including me) lost conviction in the near-term direction of the stock. Surely, many of us said, "If someone is selling, let them sell. I'll buy when they're done."
With the buyers sitting on the sidelines, Invesco's selling drove Intermap's stock price down.
With the confirmation of Intermap's $175 million megadeal, I believed that the stock would move toward $1 per share. Instead, Invesco rained on that parade. However, selling shareholders doesn't mean that a company is worth less. Most of the time, it just makes the stock more attractive (cheaper). That is especially true when the selling is forced or blind, as is the case here.
Nonetheless, based on what I have gathered, the selling is done (or very nearly done).
Further, there were/are a number of investors who have been monitoring this situation. It became something like a high-stakes game of chicken. Nobody wanted to buy the stock if Invesco is going to push it lower. However, if everyone waited until Invesco's shares were gone, there could be an incredible rush to buy the shares. Considering that the stock's fair value could be triple its current price, I suspected that "a rush for the shares" was exactly what was going to happen.
My philosophy is to not play those games. I like to buy stocks when they're cheap (even if it's a little early)...
...so I stepped in and bought close to a million shares between Thursday and yesterday.
I have more information to share, which I'll provide in a video later today. For those who want the short story now, I have seen some of the contract paperwork. The structure gives me confidence that the deal will be funded in relatively short order. I also believe that this deal will put pressure on other potential customers, because Intermap can only handle one more of these deals without expanding its capacity.
Because of these things, I view Intermap as a less speculative stock with very attractive potential reward relative to the risk. Many risks still exist, but I'm comfortable with them. If I lose, I lose... but considering the progress that has been made, there's no way I could sit on my hands without increasing my position.
More later. Stay tuned!
Excerpts from an old (2013) interview below, just for a reminder of what we have, potential opportunity and outlook:
Next comes the new innovation of what do you do with the data? When you start to think about applications, they need a contiguous database for processing. Most of the countries in Europe have different formats for their geospatial data. France is different than Germany which is different than Italy. The challenge becomes, if you're doing a large-scale flood model, you need that contiguous database that doesn't care about whether you're in France or Germany because you need consistent data across the area of evaluation.
Today there's no one else that has a contiguous database for all of Western Europe. No one, not even the U.S. government, has it for the United States. Intermap does. So the database is a unique asset that is now being monetized through the development of software applications.
I've heard you talk about the cost savings your solutions can bring to customers.
Todd: In each industry it varies. But in industries that use surveying it can save large amounts of dollars. For instance, for a telco application to determine if two towers can see each other they survey two locations. They would typically deploy 4-5 people and evaluate if the two towers have a clear line of site. In today's labor rates, it takes about $1,100 to evaluate one link or two towers, two sets of people climbing to the top of each tower with a laser and sensor.
With our application it will take about 20 seconds to do the computation, and you never leave the office. That saves, maybe, $1,000. I mean, it's a huge savings for the companies that have to put together the backhaul network since they no longer have to send out crews to do the survey. A large city may have 60,000 to 70,000 towers to evaluate.
That's a $60 million-plus bill for a telco in order to get those measurements manually for each city?
Todd: We're charging a few pennies but otherwise it would cost them millions of dollars. You've got companies like Verizon, T-Mobile, Vodaphone, and DragonWave that need these networks.
What we are building is unique in the industry and is extremely powerful technology. My focus is on monetizing these incredible assets through customer wins. But to answer your question, do I anticipate that what we are creating will be the envy of a larger company that could seek to acquire us? I do. That would make a lot of sense for them, innovation is the key to all businesses.
Nice stead buying, including some large blocks. Apparently at least 3 brokerage houses have been buying pretty steadily over the past few days. I picked up more shares myself this week. Market cap is so low compared to the value of just the first SDI contract...just an incredible buying opportunity. I think we'll see the second SDI deal announced by/in early Q2, but that's just a total guess on my part.
Large seller(s) seems to be done now. Looks like people are stepping up to buy. Still a little risk here but seems like a no brainer to buy at this price if you don't mind holding for a while to see how things work out.
Bought another chunk of shares today. Price is really cheap given the derisking that is now in place. Just a matter of time before we start moving up...either with the $12M financing in hand and/or the second contract being executed - either of these could happen at any time. I would buy more if I had more funds available.
Good news just keeps rolling in on this company. I picked up more shares even though the short-interest group still seems to control the price. Good time to be buying here IMO.
Link to Intermap's GeoPro overview/presentation - it's about 7.5 minute video.
Meetings, Meetings...
Saw this post on the stockhouse board from someone I believe to be a reliable poster and thought it was worth sharing. Please note I have no first-hand knowledge of this, just 'reposting' something I believe is true and fairly significant. There were some meetings with ITMSF management that just wrapped up (today I believe) and below is a very brief synopsis from this poster:
The meetings were the UN GLOBAL GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION committee, to make a long story short, I was told if IMP is successful with this big contract, the relationship with the P3 will lead to a very bright future
Canaccord was a big buyer yesterday:
13:37:11 T 0.415 0.05 1,500 7 TD Sec 1 Anonymous
13:36:50 T 0.415 0.05 1,000 7 TD Sec 1 Anonymous
13:32:31 T 0.41 0.045 762,000 33 Canaccord 33 Canaccord W
13:32:31 T 0.415 0.05 3,000 7 TD Sec 33 Canaccord W
13:18:35 T 0.41 0.045 15,000 33 Canaccord 7 TD Sec
13:17:31 T 0.41 0.045 15,000 33 Canaccord 7 TD Sec
13:16:34 T 0.41 0.045 6,000 33 Canaccord 7 TD Sec
13:15:05 T 0.405 0.04 9,000 33 Canaccord 85 Scotia
13:14:47 T 0.41 0.045 400 89 Raymond James 79 CIBC
13:14:47 T 0.41 0.045 500 33 Canaccord 2 RBC
The size of the first contract we are waiting for simply dwarfs the market cap of the company so I can assure you it is not factored into the share price currently. I would expect we will see at least $1.50 (US $) with the signing of the contract (I don't think that price will happen immediately on the news, but expect it would happen shortly thereafter). There is at least one, if not two, other potential large contracts expected to be announced in the fairly near term as well, and they are not reflected in the current share price either. We are just getting started here and this is an excellent time to be picking up shares, IMO.
I was hoping for this delay. I am going to be coming into a chunk of cash shortly and want to buy more shares before it starts moving up over the 50-cent range so now I have some time. Very positive on the company & future myself.
Intermap Technologies® Makes Earthquake Data Available for Risk Scoring via InsitePro™
DENVER, Sept. 24, 2015 /PRNewswire/ - Intermap Technologies (IMP.TO), (ITMSF:BB), a leading provider of location-based solutions, today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Atkins, one of the world's most respected design, engineering, and project management consultancies, to include their natural catastrophe risk and hazard data archives, including North American earthquake data, in its InsitePro software product.
InsitePro is Intermap's cloud-based risk assessment software designed to help property insurance underwriters assess location-based risk. With its configurable analytic engine, InsitePro allows users to design risk scoring analytics that address specific business needs. InsitePro applies reliable peril and geospatial data in a way that fits a carrier's approach to risk.
"InsitePro's flood analytics are changing the way flood insurance is priced and delivered," stated Product Manager Ivan Maddox. "With the Atkins agreement, Intermap will be offering risk scores for all natural perils, including earthquake, hail, tornado, and wind (straight-line and hurricane). InsitePro can now replicate the innovation brought to flood risk assessment across these other perils, delivering custom analytics to underwriters that are based on dependable data and their own view of risk."
Using InsitePro, carriers can automate the risk pricing activities that they are comfortable with and identify risks that need further analysis by an underwriter. It offers fast answers for most properties and allows the carrier to add value where appropriate. Including all perils will enable a carrier to write complete property coverage for homes and businesses to differentiate themselves from carriers that only offer standard coverage.
Thanks. I wasn't sure what this was myself since I didn't see any other PR's about it. It was a post from the Stockhouse message boards, and they track the Canadian exchange/stock so I thought maybe a release was done in Canada before it hit the US news wires. Thanks for calling IR to clarify.
Post Unavailable
Additional Information
Expanded Contract News:
DENVER, CO , Sept. 16, 2015 /CNW/ - Intermap (IMP.TO), (ITMSF:BB), a leading provider of location-based solutions, today announced that the Company has received a US$1.1 million expansion to a US$2.1 million airborne radar mapping services solution contract previously announced on June 5, 2015 , increasing the total value of the contract to $3.2 million .
Intermap is using its proprietary Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) technology to collect orthorectified radar imagery and high resolution elevation data to enhance the customer's existing geospatial map database. This new dataset will be used for improved disaster planning, resource management, security interests, and infrastructure planning. The final deliveries of the dataset are expected to be substantially complete by the end of the third quarter 2015.
"Because of its unique capabilities, Intermap's Orion Platform® based IFSAR radar mapping technology is considered to be the best and most reliable approach for the customer's requirements," said Todd Oseth , president and CEO of Intermap. "This expansion contract is a great endorsement for the quality of product that Intermap's unique solutions approach is able to deliver."
I realize that it is being very optimistic to think we may see both deals completed and announced by the end of Q3, but that is what Mark wrote in his latest article so may be possible. I will be really curious to go back and see how accurate Mark's articles have been once we get some clarity here. I suspect he has a source within the company - if so, his various comments should be right on the mark; if his source(s) is someone 'close to the company' (but not an employee), I think we'll be able to tell that as well. In any event, I think he's doing a great job analyzing and writing about this little company and sure appreciate his efforts on it.
From Mark's comments in the latest SA article, sounds like both deals may be finalized & announced before the end of this month - wouldn't that be great!
Another SA article out today, lots of interesting possibilites mentioned in this one.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3495636-intermap-multiple-deals-are-nearing-completion
Exciting prospects!
Another SA article out yesterday on ITMSF.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3476886-an-update-on-intermaps-megadeal-and-potential-new-verticals
Judging by the size of its mega-award, we estimate that Intermap's total market opportunity is well in excess of $1 billion. This figure has been confirmed by industry sources. Also, contacts close to the company have indicated that the company's pipeline may already be on the order of $500 million.
Joe, do you (or anyone else) know if the company has ever said anything about wanting to get up listed on a better exchange? I suspect they want to but have not seen anything to confirm. Since they are filing reports even though not required to, and they are authorized to effect a reverse split, it looks to me like they are working on qualifying for a NASDAQ small cap listing once their revenues / financial picture improves. Being a grey sheet listed company probably both scares and limits potential investors. I am glad and excited to be in at these prices though!
Bought more shares today. It's a steal at this level. Transformational news coming within the next 30 days or so IMO.
Exciting prospects! I am in as of yesterday, bought more today.
Price doesn't have to be higher than the strike price in order to make $ on these warrants. If BTX moves up to $4 from here, the warrants will increase in value as well. At $1 for the warrants, the stock price doesn't have to move up much for the warrants to get back closer to the $2 range they were in earlier this year IMO. Will see.
Anyone buying BTX warrants at these prices? I picked some up today at $1 each, seems like a good price. Am thinking of buying another batch of them. Any thoughts?
Following that along with the upgrade yesterday $33 price target). There was also a great article by FierceBiotech yesterday - excellent article.
I became a shareholder yesterday. Could be a huge return on these shares by buying in the $1.70 range if Ph III comes through successfully!