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DWTI/USO This is what I posted yesterday morning. This is important as I believe we missed my bottom area where I expected the low to be put in by like .20 on each chart. Technically we just missed but damn we were close. We're in the bounce part of the play and the entry numbers are still good if I can bring myself to accept the miss on the downside by like .18-.19.
This is what I'm watching right now for a reentry into DWTI.
Looking for CL to bounce from the $37-$37.72 area back to the 39.80-$40.24 zone. If we get that movement there it'll be a great signal. I still expect one more final shake here from oil before I'll consider the long side.
If you're into watching USO a bounce from $9.30 to $10.30 would do about the same thing for me.
Either way I'm looking for an entry in DWTI on the next bounce we see from the black stuff. So basically we should find a bottom here before too long and the top of the next bounce is our entry IMO. If we get that $9.30-$10.30 move I'll be looking for about a 40% decline from USO of somewhere right around $6.
That'll be a great payday for DWTI and one I think the EST team should be playing.
More to follow of course but wanted to give you guys my setup and what I'm watching.
So basically what I'm saying is I'm going to relook the charts and see if that small miss was acceptable and if so I will be making an entry in the morning.
UVXY: This is what I post yesterday morning.
Good evening EST, I need to renew my membership because I'm going to be making more then 15 post a day now and I really need to get my PM's back.
I'm going to look over the post I made this morning to ensure I didn't provide any bad information or any of the information I put out could be misconstrued. If there's any questions about info I post the only way to clear it up is to ask questions. If you have questions and I'm not available I'm sure that some of the other guys on the board won't mind trying to help out if they can. Many of the guys on the board have been reading my calls, entries/exits, postings long enough that they usually understand what I'm trying to say and if they can't I must have said something that makes no sense or is complete BS.
I'm really trying to be clear about what I'm looking for to trigger my buys/sells. Granted I wasn't/haven't been here a lot recently and that's the main reason I haven't been making a ton of calls or haven't posted my outlook on a wide variety of calls. That's starting to change and with more moving parts there's more opportunity for communication breakdown. That brings me to my point and this is a good time for me to discuss it in my opinion. We're all adults and if you don't understand what's going on than you shouldn't be in the play. Bottom line is it's the player's responsibility to make both entries and exits on there own. We can post what we're looking for or doing all day but if you decide to make the plays with us please know what you're doing before you make the play and take responsibility for your own actions.
Nothing happened or anything like that this is nothing more than a heads up for those of you that may be newer to the board or have been away as long as I have. I wanted to put this out there now because I believe we're getting dialed in and as we get on the right side of the markets/commodities we're gonna start moving in and out of these different tickers at a much quicker pace than we've been doing. That said the amount of time you'll have to analyze the play and go through the decision making process may not be as much as you're use to. It would be in everyone's best interest that you understand what you're doing before you do it. Basically all I'm saying is if you want to make a play and you don't understand what's going on with the board/players just ask someone. We're all here to help and in the past I seen many of these guys go out of the way to ensure that the newer board members feel welcome and provide them with as much assistance as is required.
I'm going to go over my post from this morning tonight and provide you guys with a brief breakdown of what happened with what I was looking for and why I didn't make entries. I'm also going to cover oil a little closer because we were really close on entries and are in the process of bounce numbers right now. So my plan is to go over why I didn't play UVXY and why I'm stalking oil plays right now. I understand we're just getting back into the swing of things so if there's any questions about anything please ask.
More To Follow.
Have to head to Baltimore but I'll have me Ipad. Service is somewhat intermittent but I'll do my best to monitor what's going on. Remember to keep an eye on oil as well because I expect some sort of correct rally, maybe from a smaller than expected build, regardless what the catalysis is I'm hoping we see those numbers play out I mentioned earlier for a possible entry into DWTI.
I'll be renewing my memberships on these sites later this evening so you can expect me to start posting more charts and expectations for a larger number of plays. I'll also have my PM's back, which will help significantly.
If this move lower plays out I'm tracking the 1st wave lower somewhere between 1995 and 1975. Once we break 1995 it can get ugly quick, fast, and in a hurry like. I do have a 20 point cushion for a possible recovery but again we're on the brink of what could turn into a possible 300 point decline. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen "yet" but I'm under the impression that a play in UVXY is warranted if it starts to look like we're going to head in that direction based on the potential for a possible continued move lower. Hope that makes sense because I'm really wanting to make this play but at the same time I'm not going to either open the position or suggest anyone else do something like that until I get a clear signal. Even then I may be wrong but I'd feel a lot better about pushing my funds in the middle.
Strictly from a technical perspective the bounce I was hoping to see for the best UVXY DID NOT PLAY OUT. So what I'd like to see now is a move from ES down to about 2012 with a bounce to about 2020. The top of that bounce would be the best entry for the next UVXY play IMO. The reason I'd like to wait is because we've went too low already and until I see what I consider an impulse move to the downside I don't think the play makes sense. Sooner of later we're gonna get a clear signal but as you've pointed out we've got Janet on the schedule later today and this move lower could just be posturing. So at the moment it's 2012 with a bounce to 2020-2022 that'll be me to get a starter.
I do believe we're going to see some separation and eventual obvious movement in opposite directions. When oil plummeted in 2014 the markets managed to continue higher and I believe what we're going to see here is the opposite of that in a manner of speaking. It won't be as pronounced but I do believe that oil will start to recover before the markets even get close to bottoming. So basically what I'm saying is what I've always said. The correlation works until it doesn't and those that expect it to continue are disappointed.
This is what I'm watching right now for a reentry into DWTI.
Looking for CL to bounce from the $37-$37.72 area back to the 39.80-$40.24 zone. If we get that movement there it'll be a great signal. I still expect one more final shake here from oil before I'll consider the long side.
If you're into watching USO a bounce from $9.30 to $10.30 would do about the same thing for me.
Either way I'm looking for an entry in DWTI on the next bounce we see from the black stuff. So basically we should find a bottom here before too long and the top of the next bounce is our entry IMO. If we get that $9.30-$10.30 move I'll be looking for about a 40% decline from USO of somewhere right around $6.
That'll be a great payday for DWTI and one I think the EST team should be playing.
More to follow of course but wanted to give you guys my setup and what I'm watching.
Headed to the casino after I pick up my son so most likely won't be making any plays other than UVXY today. I'll be renewing my memberships on all these sites this evening so I'll have PM's back for tomorrow. I'm on schedule to be back trading full time Monday and I'm hoping to start taking on a few positions Friday for what should be a very interesting 1st week of the Q. If things start to go crazy before Friday I'm certainly willing to start to accumulate positions early but at the moment I'm trying to enjoy some time with the family.
A bounce before ES breaks 2022 would really strengthen the play here. 2028-2030 would be textbook for an UVXY entry.
This is not a good sign for the bulls. The market was set up perfectly to open on a gap this morning and the inability of the bulls to take advantage of that setup would have me concerned if I were on the bulls team. Now we've been watching for the market to break down a bit and this could be the start of a move down to that 1995 mark. If that happens I expect a bounce in the 2000-2002 area and depending on how that plays out it'll will dictate my UVXY play. I'm either going to exit in the 2000 area or add to my position, hopefully at the top of the bounce. Please don't ask me what I think is going to happen because I have no way of knowing until we see the action in the 2000 area if we get down that low. However an add on the bounce would indicate I expect to see this break 1995 on the second test.
Questions.
TVIX plays just as well and is an alternative for those wanting to reduce the risk a bit for this volitility play. Either way I'd really like to see a small bounce from ES to provide our entry.
Looking for ES to recover a bit, closer to or just 2029 and that'll be my trigger to open a position in UVXY.
My target is $28.98-$30.64 for the first leg. I may decide to hold this if we get a bounce from ES at 2002. If we break 2000 with no bounce i'll see UVXY as close to 1995 as I can get.
Questions???
Good Morning EST, heading to the airport to pick up my son in a little while but wanted to stop by and see what h\was going on.
ABX is posting a buy signal at 12.74 with an $18.00 target. This i s one of your suggestions I'm very much considering. The pattern is approaching the bottom of the 4th wave and $18 id the 5th wave target. It should be a typical 5 wave move and easy to track. I like this one and it's already reported so that;s not even a consideration. Close watch IMO.
I spent a lot of time on the keyboard this weekend. My guess would be I sent out maybe 50+ feelers just to see if my initial thoughts were being backed up by jokers not coming off the bench. There's some very difficult calls that early week players are going to have to make if they want to catch every micro move offered this week. I'm a little more interested in catching the larger moves that are either going to confirm early on or possibly require a bit of patience if we head higher out the gate or early on in the week. I'm not being wishy washy but I am trying to be more selective in making my entries/exits. I'm taking this position because my goal is to hopefully make swing trades we can hold longer or a minimum make entries that have identifiable stops as close to those entries as possible.
So while I do think a larger pullback is in the cards how we get there is not an easy call "AT THIS POINT". If we don't get clearly bearish signals early in the week, which is very possible, we could climb 50 points before I can say with clarity the drop is upon us. It's the end of the quarter and big money is trying to position itself to take advantage of what the commercial traders clearly believe will be a larger drop.
So what I'm saying is we could see some sideways whipsaws in a series of smaller moves before I can say we certainty it's time for the EST traders to short the market. Of course we can do that in a variety of different ways so my plan is to provide you guys with those options while we wait for clear support/resistance signals. I'm not saying I don't intend on playing any of these whipsaws but I'm certainly not going to try and catch every single high and low. I'm just getting tired of making plays too early or too late and trying to play catch-up when all I really had to do is practice some discipline and following some basic swing trade strategies.
My point is that we can chose to play the best set-ups in whatever market,sector, commodities, or individual stock we choose instead of trying to impose our will on plays that haven't given us a clear path for a longer term swing trade.
I do think the markets have topped in a manner of speaking but I'm not sure they're ready to rollover either. IMO unless we get a clear breakdown of SPX 1995 we're going to see some whipshaw resulting in sideways consolidation before we ultimately see lower downside. The thing is I'm not sure I'm willing to mess with it at the moment when we have better options, at least IMO. Now don't get me wrong if we get the right set-up and break support I'll be the 1st knucklehead making the call/play. I do have some suggestions that should results in better play selection for the EST Team and as always I'll do my best to provide us with as many money making opportunities as I can I'm just going to concentrate on the highest quality longest term swing trades we can find. I'm still planning on providing you guys with my opinion cause I don't think you could stop me anyway. Hear me out cause I'm still putting together my early week trades and what it's gonna take for me to punch the ticket.
Just sending out some emails to the board members at the moment. Also gather my thoughts from the weekend so gonna address some of the possible plays I see coming this week. Man it feels good to be back in the saddle, lol.....
Anyone around this evening?
Happy Easter
Nice looking chart and I can see several reasons for the draw. I would point out that one possible path I can see this making is a bounce to the 2.87-3.00 area followed by a further decline to 2.47-2.25. That 2.25 would be the 61.8% retrace of the move off the bottom, would print a beautiful inverted head and shoulders and also be a perfect technical launch pad for a move up into the 4.45-4.71 area. All of this is just my opinion of course and another way to play it would be to simply make the entry at the open, set a trailing stop and let it ride. Either way I think you may be onto something, as I said there's other technical reasons to like the play but personally I'd feel most comfortable watching it hold designated support at 2.25 and an entry at that level could give us the opportunity for a possible double. The way this is moving it's should take too long to cover the distance either.
GREAT, I think we're on the same page on this one.
As a group we need to decide if we're going to play anything under $1.00. Personally I could care less but if anyone has any issues speak now or forever hold your peace, lol.......
I have several in fact and will post them all. I've been hanging out with a bunch of guys that have differing opinions on how to play what everyone agrees is an impending move. So let me run my mouth here and see if you can get anything out of this stuff. Personally I don't think the metal move is going to be very hard to play but like any move trying to catch the bottom is the ticket and what I hope to achieve. Now the smart players will just wait it out to ensure the bottom is in and catch the first pullback which is what could be happening right now for all I know. However if this is the case I believe it much more likely for gold than silver. You mentioned ABX and NUGT which I have both and I believe that of the two ABX will be the safer play but NUGT of course could provide for one hell of a payday. Bottom line is I love them both but my point is right now, today, at this point the power players are waiting for the other shoe to drop of for confirmation the true bottom is in. I mean this is no grand secret as we've been discussing it on the board for a very long time, my point is it's nothing new to those that follow the markets as close as we do. So when we do get confirmation of a bottom I don't think we'll be seeing a bunch of BSing and slow climbs. Man this stuff should be on fire and a literal money for those will to take the risk.
It's just too early or late in the move for me to tell how the 1st major move will develop. Not the first move off the bottom but the second move of the move after the first pullback is what we want to catch. It never fails and the traders that catch most of that move are be sitting in the catbird seat for the rest of the rise if they don't get greedy of course.
Now I'm going to say something that I've given a lot of thought to and have heard this from a lot of people a hell of a lot smarter than I am. The general consensus is that silver will outperform gold significantly over the next three years. In a perfect world I can see that happening but silver is a very complicated commodity and a plethora of shit could wrong and cause one of those waterfalls silver is known to produce. So my plan will be to carry more long term gold/gold miners and to add the dips. I hope only to trade it when we can forecast a large enough move to make it worthwhile. I understand that not everyone can do that so we'll continue to try and call intermediate highs and lows so everyone can take advantage of everyone contributions. I mean hell we're gonna be here anyway and we should be discussing the moves so we don't get caught holding when we should have been selling days ago. Silver/silver miners on the other hand I plan to trade the heck out of it and to accumulate as much as I can through skimming my trades. So no way I'm staying away from silver because there is a very real possibility silver kicks gold to the curb but from a risk management standpoint gold is well the "gold standard"
As far as individual tickers I'll be posting everything on my watch list as well as in my portfolio.
DWTI was my largest winner of 2015 and I'm getting ready to make another entry. Stick with me on this one if you can. It's very possible it's about to make a monster bounce so it may be a good idea to have some dry powder at the ready. I'll provide a more detailed explanation over the weekend.
Can't seem to find your email. Please reply to SwingTrader@live.com so I can make sure you get everything I'm sending out. Also have a few questions you may be able to help with.
Thanks
LOL, thanks...I need a good chuckle....
As you know metals and miners are a mainstay in my portfolio and I have not changed my opinion about their performance over the next few years. I do believe that all of us were pretty close of the bottom call and I really hope that you guys at least took starters. I understand that not everyone has long money to leave vested but I'm telling you guys, in a few years this is gonna be one of those "I wish I would have bought and held" things. Mark my words, Gold is moving north of 2K and of course it's going to take the miners with it. I'm saying this now because I want to make certain that everyone understands my long term outlook for metals and major minors is about as bullish as it's gets.
Now that we've gotten that out or the way nothing goes straight up so I will be changing position sizes as we continue higher. At the moment I'm only adding the dips and my goal of course is to add at the lowest possible price. Just a suggestion but it may be a good idea to try and grow some sort of metal position if you haven't already. This is something we'll be following very closely here on EST and I think most would agree that we've done a pretty good job and caught some good moves using fibs and EWs. Of course no one is perfect and we've blown a few as well but i'm absolutely certain that we're far far ahead on the correct call column.
Now I'm going to say something here that I'd like you to consider before I post my outlook. Gold and Silver and not the same thing. They don't look the same, they aren't used for the same things, and they aren't treated the same way by the wall street big boys. I'll say this again, GOLD AND SILVER are not the same thing. As long as you understand that it makes it much easier to understand why they don't move in unison and why I think we may have already seen the bottom in one and not the other. For some of you old timers you may have remembered me calling for gold to break 1100 and possibly 1000 before moving to new all time highs. I'm thinking gold has put in it's bottom already, however, I simply can't say the same thing about silver. I had silver putting in a bottom between 12-12.99. $13.62 may very well be the bottom but I'm just not feeling it. The chart is screaming for a short attack and I don't think it can be stopped if it happens. This is very important because in the long run I believe that silver will outperform gold over the next several years and if I'm right our best entry may be just ahead. Please guys just consider what I'm saying, in it's entirety, before slamming the door on what could be new news for both metals. Again not my opinion but if the charts suggest that's what's going to happen then that's what I'll be calling. Now if you already buying/holding and plan on going long none of this will matter much two years from now. For those of us that haven't' bought yet and are still trying for the best entry I certainly believe that if it hasn't already past we're only going to get one more shot. Of that I'm certain.......So right now I'm thinking anything under SI$13 is a solid entry, $12.50 would b even better. I fell much better about gold already putting in a bottom but if it hasn't I don't think it'll be much lower than what it is now and if it does approach that level it will be a quick dip. Now for an added surprise I even have a timeframe in mind that I'll post along with my market turn chart. Those of you that received my morning emails have the charts that layout my opinion for expected paths.
Going to be working for a couple of hours getting my platform and stock list set-up. If anyone has particular tickers you want me to add to my list please post them and I give you my word I'll put them into rotation. The good news is I forgot all about my thinkorswim platform and it's still in tact, just the way I left it. The bad news is it contains a lot of tickers I need to get back in the loop and that's going to require some time on my end. Anyway the offer still stands, if you want me to add any of your tickers please post them soon. It just makes it easier for me if I can do as I go and not have to go back and rework list.
Just in case anyone is interested I'm now using Etrade-Pro as my main platform and conduct most of my trades through them. I'm still using TorS and ScottradeElite cause I'm still maintaining accounts with them and honestly I like both for several different reasons. The main reason I made the switch to Etrade-Pro is because I spent so much time on it over the six months or so that I've gotten pretty good using many features most folks don't even know are there. The order entry procedures/program they use in Etrade-Pro is far superior to anything out there IMO so that in itself is what made me switch and start using it as my main order entry point.
I'll also entertain any general questions if I can answer without blowing too much smoke.
I did send out our first round of emails this morning if anyone cares to comment on the quality/content/value or whatever for that matter. I've become a firm believer in sending our loyal readers that something extra for spending time on the board and I think they did a pretty good job of projecting my current outlook. Now I don't intend to do normal board stuff through email, all that can stay the way it is, however I can say from experience it's damn nice to open your email in the morning and being able to read what someone opinion in a clear concise voice. I also included charts for each area but I kept them elementary and are basically nothing more than support/resistance visual aids. Now I may spice them up a bit as we move forward cause I'm a chart guy and my BandB is technical analysis so I just can't not post charts, lol. So for those of you that can't or don't want to read the charts the plain text should be all you really need to understand the message.
Guys it really is good to be back and I'll be here more and more as each day passes. I've still got some personal time on the books for the wife and I but overall you will be seeing more of me like it or not.
Even though the markets are closed today I will be working to get us back in action. For those of you that sent me your email please check for my responses.
I'm looking for my next UVXY entry. I'm under the impression that today's bounce was just that and we have further downside on the way. I'm also wanted to keep some chips on the table in case this is the breakdown leg I'm looking for. I hope you guys still have ES because I'm think maybe 10 points higher 2037.50 as a good place to reopen UVXY if that resistance holds. We could see as much as a 75 point move lower and ig 1960 fails much much more.
Nice UVXY play, I stopped out as well just after the open. Not sure I would have done that if I were actually watching but my stop from yesterday was triggered cause of the gap. Looking at $22.91 as a possible re-entry.
Please send me an email to SwingTrader@live.com. If anyone else would like to be added to the list you're welcome to do the same. I would prefer to do some correspondence that provides for a little more privacy while I'm rebuilding my platform and making public calls.
Good to see you, it's been way too long. As I've said to a few other guys, please give me time to get myself back in working order and we'll hit that bejesus out of these commodity trades. My family is in town visiting and will be here through the weekend but next week I'll be starting to increase my time here on the board and try to start presenting my outlook in what I hope will be the easiest way to follow. I've been away a long time and I need some room to get comfortable trading with my own money again. That UVXY call yesterday was a good start but I only played about 25% of what my usual size would have been. So believe me when I say I haven't lost my willingness to make the tough calls or put my money where my mouth but I have to ease back into this so I don't come out the gate making a bunch of dumb calls that result in a bunch of bad beats. I've always respected your opinion and your calls as a trader so I'm sure you can imagine how you'd feel if you were away for eight months and was asked to start making those same calls with the same level of confidence as you did before your absence.
So what I'm asking is for you guys to continue posting as many question as possible about whatever is on your minds and allow me to catch up and provide you guys with GOOD answers and not a hip shoot type response. I'm going to start changing the Ibox and putting more useful info up there so watch for the changes and hopefully that'll give you guys an indication of where I'm going and where I'm at.
That's a fair question and let me be honest. For the last eight months I've been employed by a commodities firm that required me to spend an exorbitant amount away from my family and I'm just now starting to get back to work for myself. I'm trying to spend some time with the wife and kids so I'm asking for a bit of patience as I get back into the swing of things on my end.
The work I was required to do for them didn't align very well with my technical analysis/risk assessment practices so I'm not yet at a point where I've reconstructed my trading platform. I can tell you that my time spent working for those guys was not wasted and I feel that I've been able to improve certain areas of my own expertise.
So please try and bear with me as I get myself back in action and get my funding in place to start rolling along once again. I'm not willing to provide a time frame just yet and if I did I wouldn't be giving you a very professional answer. It's not that I don't have a clue or any of that crap but making that kind of call will require me to be fully functional and I'm just not there yet.
My goal is to provide you guys with my best work and not some guess that I'm throwing out there just to answer a question. I think you can ask many of the guys on the board about my willingness to put myself out there and share my opinion , right or wrong, so I have every intention of doing just that but on my time frame.
Man it feels great to be back in control of my own trades again. I feel like I've been away from the table forever............
There's a chance $40.75 holds but if not $36.50 is a real possibility. My guess is somewhere in between. Still not the proper entry point IMO. I've got a shocker coming your way.
Thanks for stopping by, nice to have someone to talk to.
UVXY out the gate gentlemen. Come on Fred!!!!!!!!!!