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Excellent post and dd....thanks for your input.........the next 3 to 5 years are going to be very interesting.
Why speculate on the "odds".....I am very long; therefore, I believe tis is worth holding or adding to........As to any application.......it will be approved.......or not.....therefore, the odds are either 0% or 100%.......we just don't know which.........I think that society dearly demands ABT opioids....and this one has an excellent probability of being 100%...
.....I hope that you are correct.....I have a BIG bet on this....but, that 11 cents is Revenues......or sales.....not profit..........20 x sales is nothing to rave about....
I am very long this company........but, the Revs that you estimate amount to approximately 11 cents/share. 100/906..........We have to do better than that....
There are about 906 M outstanding shares with 1.61 short.......just about equal to today's volume. If 10$ were to cover, not sure that it would increase the share price much.......Also, absent bullish news, not sure that there is enough reason to cause covering significant enough to impact share price more than 2 cents per share......Just don't think that there is enough short interest here to impact s.p. much.
Agree......don't forget that the goal of the company is to quality for Nasdaq listing and to gain that share price organically.....R/S is last resort........SequestOx and the ADT product pipeline is the vehicle to achieve that goal..........
Actually, while there may be rare exceptions....the truth is that "they couldn't care MORE"......these small caps have much more, relatively speaking, riding on the outcome of a new application than do the Pfizers, Marks, etc of the world........
TMAX IS THE ISSUE AS I UNDERSTAND IT...........Here we have an IR abuse deterrent opioid that met all the protocols, but the Tmax gave the FDA pause.....................does anyone really believe that this cannot be resolved? The FDA wants; Congress want: the medical community wants; patient want.......all want
more abuse deterrent opioids...........TMAX, as I understand it, is a concern for all IR pain meds......just prove that sprinkling it on a fatty meal.....or handle it in the WARNINGS section of the label/insert....get on with it....it should be approved....
You are correct in your comment on valuation; wrong in your conclusion that the conversion is a "bad development"......we shall see, but by giving up the Preferred status a shareholder loses value to the extent that value can be assigned to the priority status..........I think that Nasrat's conversion is a positive......for common shareholders......again, we shall see...
Weezuhl: There are complicated issues of conflicts of interest and whether an insider, who owns potentially controlling interests, even indirectly through another shell company, may deal in company shares and control with any more freedom than one who owns that equity in a more direct manner.
Typically, a person may not do indirectly what he or she cannot do directly.
The conversion of preferred to common is interesting. I have not looked for verification of that and have
only read it, here, on this board. If that has or will happen, as a common shareholder, I am encouraged. Normally, a preferred shareholder comes in front of the common shareholders in the event of a bankruptcy or dissolution, but are behind bond holders, creditors and employee interests.
There could be several reasons for a voluntary conversion, IMO. Most are probably wrong in this case as we are all guessing......maybe it is to avoid a claim of "conflict of interest"......maybe a buyer does not
want to acuire a company with outstanding preferreds.....not an accountant but maybe that would complicated plans of the acquirer for some reason......
I have not read the poison pill....but, usually those are triggered when there is an attempted change of control. Preferred are usually....maybe always non-voting shares....(I have not checked on the accuracy of this statement, but believe that to be true)......maybe Nasrat, with a conversion, would not have enough additional voting shares to trigger the pill, but maybe it would......all of these questions could probably be answered by someone with more time to read all of the rights of the preferred holders and the poison pill provisions.....I do not have that time, now......
Bottom line for me.....if Mr. Nasrat, directly or through Micah, thinks that it is a good thing to have more commons shares, then I am more comfortable than I was before I knew that to be the case. Misery may love company, but so does money and wealth...
Really appreciate your efforts....not sure what conclusion to draw except that there is a lot of data on bioequivalent Tmax that may extrapolate to SequestOx and be enough to satisfy FDA....or, not?
I sent an email to Dianne....asked what the milestone steps are likely to be and the timing of such to
meet whatever concerns were raised by the FDA in the CRL....and, what is a reasonable future date for knowing approval or disapproval of SequestOx.......I suspect that many other have asked the same questions.....
August 11, 2015 was date of cc for 3rd quarter last year......surely, this will be announced, soon.....Communications with the FDA over the CRL not take a long time.....hope for nice increase in y.o.y. earnings and some optimism on SequestOx.......
Totally agree
O.K....good response....my only comment is that the company should not be criticized for disclosing the low, in addition to the high and mid-point in the valuation. I think that a criticism would be justified if they failed to do so.............transparency would require all numbers being shared........
But, adding in projections for abuse deterrents, is the real problem as that is the reason so many are interested in this company.....we....or at I.....not interested in a future of only generics......If the poison pill
valuation is valid when done 2 years ago without consideration for abuse deterrents (not sure they didn't take that into consideration.....they probably did on the high valuation...even though plans were in their infancy)...a valuation now should be higher........
Not sure if the poison pill has a lapse date....does it expire by its own terms say 5 years out? Some do ...some don't........if so, maybe another "valuation" will be warranted, but I am sure we all hope that 3 years from now, the concern for the success of the abuse deterrents will be history......surely it will be...for good or ill....
No2K....thanks for your post......I was wondering what your analysis would be if you attempted reduce the value of the company to present value using earning forecast over the next 5 years......It is HARD t do because a company like this, with its future so dependent on approval of new drugs, has only a stream income from generics........there is not enough history for me to do this.....I would like to believe that growth from the generics would continue at the pace that we have seen recently, but I do not assume that.......Most of us own this company because we believe (hope) that the ADT opioids will be approved.......what if none of them were approved......what would the value of this company be if it only had generics and did not have the "promise" of ADT opioids....???? I add that I am very long this company.......I believe that SequestOx will be approved and the others that follow.....but, .......
Why???? Would I want to accept anything on this mb from folks who seem to have nothing else to do except post on this mb?? A couple pretend to be physicians.....I don't know any physicians who have time to mess with this silliness......ELTP will work it out with FDA, or not.....wait to see...I am very long.
agree.......picked up 50k, yesterday....and 32k, today.......this will get approved and the pipeline is coming along nicely........I believe that his will be over .80 by end of year and maybe over 1.00, by then......just my opinions.......not worth much.....do your own due diligence.....
Should SequestOx be resubmitted for ER, and not IR? One poster has posited that H.N. plans on "fixing" this by proposing to the FDA that it be "sprinkled" on fatty food........this seems bizarre to me, and unlikely to be a correct interpretation of what N.H. said. I just believe that we have to wait until the next sequel to know more.......August.
Sorry....eastern st. time
CC at 8:30 am eat........listen......
Either Major ...or Minor...No Adcom
Seems that the Adcom was not required for a reason. Nothing really to discuss. I bet on a minor and fixable issue because if it were complicated an Adcom would have happened before the CRL. Probably a hitch on labeling.
Have to expect a big price drop next week. I will hold.....no sense in selling at a big loss like that, only to find out in 30 days that it was fixable. I keep the hope that the fee would not have been waived and that the
application would not have been given quick attention if the defect or defects were fatal.
Well......I might as well engage in some speculation, here.
STOCKBOY...... I don't think it is Number 3. We got the fee waiver. Would not the company have had to
submit some data to get that? Seems to me the FDA would have to be pretty well convinced of efficacy to
waive a big fee. I don't know the answer, but ....
Also, why would the company have to meet with the FDA on "deficiencies" to better understand what the FDA wants, if that were the case. Seems that the CRL would be pretty explanatory on that......
Also, was it not label issues that were raised at the hearing on the Pfizer product? My memory is not clear on this, but I have some slim fragment of a memory of such being discussed on the old Yahoo board when it was functioning.
"IN ITS PRESENT FORM"......or words to that effect, were used by FDA......we cannot know much now....We have to wait for CC on this matter.