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SP Futures 1388-1384-1388
A little hitch up on the Euro with better than expected Retail Sales out at 5am. Prior was -0.2, Anticipated 0.1% and Actual was 0.3%.
A considerable jump so wondering now if Euro is starting the Numbers pump?
Big numbers for the US Markets will be the UnEmployment rate due at 8:30 am.
If we follow the DAX/FTSE it could be a nice whiplash day?
I still think the whiplash is uncertainty and that usually leads to selling, we shall see.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
ISM 35th Consecutive month Positive?
This is directly from their website
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the 33rd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 35th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
So has anyone else seen the economy getting better the last 35 Months? Again I say manipulation of the Numbers.
Be Safe!
Old Market Mantra 'Sell in May and Stay Away!'
Another opportunity to take profits here if long, set stops, etc
The Government will Save us
That seemed to be the mantra yesterday as the Fed spent Billions and the Markets extended itself on the devalued dollar. The housing sales numbers Looked good and rising house prices also extend the myth of a strong economy when the actual picture is a weak dollar.
The old school rhetoric would say 'put your money into something that will maintain value, ie hard assets' and that is what has been happening with the Markets and properties lately. As the dollar continued to slide lower the amount of dollars needed to purchase those hard assets like stocks, gold, commodities, properties all rose over the last few months. The strength of the Nation used to be the strength of it's currency but in this cyber century the virtual funds that keep things moving are all that matters. If gasoline is $5 and bread is $5 it won't matter as the Government will just keep printing money to keep the supply chain going and money in circulation. Now does that sound like any type of Real solution to keep the Markets and the Economy up? Real equals Reality and the World economic problems cannot be swept away by a spend spend mentality, at least not permanently.
Be Safe and have a Wonderful Week!
CPIC some Positive price movement
So far today a 20% uptick
Diverging Interests in Holdings
You can see in the TNX spike yesterday when the Markets had their big jump up the outflow of cash from Bonds to the Markets. In most any other chart analysis this would be seen as an exhaustion spike high. Today's complete reversal showing money out of the Markets and into Bonds is not reflected in the Markets action today as the Markets are still trying to hold positive. This Divergence of Interest in where the Money is flowing has, in the past, shown the TNX to be the leading indicator of where Cash is moving to. I believe this is again a sign that the Markets are weaker here than they appear to be. Whether yesterday's spikes in the TNX and Markets will indeed be the Exhaustion move to the upside here we will have to see. In my humble opinion I believe that any Topside is done here and a selloff into the end of May is possible.
Use some Caution on Longs, set stops and lock in profits where appropriate.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Extremely Negative Econ News=Markets Up?
I am just about to give up on how the Markets are reacting here.
To me this should be the Last Hurrah with the way the Econ news has been steadily declining but the Markets are in Ignore mode today and I don't doubt that Bernanke will blow some smoke up the Markets today also. Still not sure when the Markets get back to Reality but as stated before it won't be pretty. If you are on the Up train then I would take this opportunity to lock in any profits, jmho.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Continuing Claims/Unemployment Rate
Doesn't anyone question that the reason these are dropping is because the government extensions are finally ending and the number of people being finally dropped from Claims/Unemployed are equal to the reduction in these two numbers? Let's see, government extends benefits into the election year so that when they are finally dropped the Claims/Unemployment numbers will show a reduction when they want them to. Oh Yeah, the economy is not getting better but the Numbers look good. The other economic numbers that cannot be as easily manipulated are not getting better. Why do the Markets continue to rally on false numbers and how long will it last?
Not much longer imo, be Safe!
Another Umemployment pump up?
I am still wondering when the Markets get back to reality. As was seen in the last 2 ISM number releases there are significant differences in the Numbers being posted out. In my opinion there are attempts being made to make things look better than they are. Every now and then a True number will come out and the Markets reaction will certainly not be Positive anymore. Rather than looking at the current Employment numbers, that most everyone agrees is adjusted to a Better number before being released, let's look at current workforce participation. This is the Percentage of Workers that are currently Participating 63.9%. You can see in the last 4 Years there has been a significant decline.
When will the Reality of the current economic situation set in?
I think more quickly than most anticipate, we shall see.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Richmond Manufacturing Grossly Negative
You won't see it mentioned anywhere as it 'supposedly' has no effect on the Markets. It can be an insight into the next ISM numbers that come out. The Richmond index is Fed District 5 consisting of the Virginia's, Carolina's, Maryland and DC. It would be surprising to see the President mention it as it is the index for the states surrounding the Capitol. The prior reading was a 20, anticipated was 18 and the actual is a 7. Now to me that is some considerably Negative results and you probably won't hear about it.
Good Trading and be Safe!
9:59am Richmond Manufacturing Index Actual 7 Anticipate 18 Prior 20
Reversal started after 4am
Euro was a Sell the News on Germany business climate staying flat.
The Pump started just after the selloff and then spiked up on Bernanke speech at 8am, which also started to sell at first.
What created the Pump after the 4am selloff is what I want to know?
Why the big Buy spike on the Bernanke statement?
Either there was some leak to Bernanke statements or the PPT was in full buy mode already?
Looks like nothing more than a false rally to me.
Grossly Negative home sales numbers were ignored -0.5% 1.0% 2.0%
TNX didn't participate today either, we shall see.
4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 109.8 109.7 109.7
Euro
Rally on Negative news?
Home sales numbers came out waay lower than anticipated, yet the Markets rally on it?
Date Time Release Impact For Feb Actual Expected Prior
Mar 26 10AM Pending Home Sales -0.5% 0.5% 1.9%
Can we say Manipulation yet?
Markets will fall fast and hard eventually, but not as long as there are Euros propping it up.
Notice I didn't say USD$ propping it up?
Or at least not average peoples $ eh
Something is Wrong here?
TVIX 50% is overdone
Still need the Markets to get a change of direction though.
Definitely time to start a position imo.
The reality is manipulation imo
Most all the Econ numbers are adjusted to look good imo.
All I see around where I live is more and more closed/vacant buildings and more people out of work. Since Christmas the stores are empty. If there is some kind of economic recovery it sure has not found it's way here yet.
Still watching today to see if some relief rally but so far we did not see the same dip buying strength as on the last pullbacks.
1380 would be the support to watch tomorrow, then 1360/1340.
If we get a pullback below 1340 then I think any next rally attempt will get sold off hard, jmho.
April 15th is usually Market top for the year and this year it might be a lower high selloff from there, we shall see.
Enjoy the Evening!
Something to watch
Almost as though they were trying to stop out everyone on it?
That has certainly seemed like the case with UVXY the last few days.
I agree
We shall see
UVXY more volatile than VIX
Definitely so far it seems more like an intraday trader on the quick pullbacks. Where the VIX can find support levels the UVXY seems to find none. Still not sure if it can turn into a trend reversal as every consolidation period it losses considerable premium. If used as a entry on rally tops looking for an intraday or 1-2 day pullback it is tradable as long as you lock in any profits on the volatile move. No Options on it means there is little you can do to hedge other than just setting stops.
Will still have to see if it can ever trend Up or not?
Morning Steve, thanks
Yes, I will be watching that trendline.
I noticed the other day the INDU broke the MKTSS 100sma and is looking like a rollover. Euro/FTSE/Gold are all down this am but we have some more unemployment news coming out this am.
It will be time to see if yet once again the Markets ignore the news and continue to rally or if things get back in sync with reality?
Enjoy the Day!
Hide the pots/pans/spoons/knives
Make sure just about anything that is a handheld or projectile weapon is out of reach or tied down.
Full Moon means Hormones are in full swing also lol
Until I see the neighbors outside howling at the moon I won't be too concerned lol
Bradley upside turn was a bit ahead of itself? Downside may be also?
Not sure what we see this week but I don't expect it to be a cool headed Market anymore.
3 pm was Fed announce?
Not around enough during the day to see what is happening.
Mentioned before the euphoria spread by rumor of Good News when the truth is Negative. Everyone dancing in the streets 'wall street' right before the meltdown. So far that is certainly the way it appears the Markets are reacting.
Yes, lowered volatility compared to Novemeber, with the exception of this week.
Will have to see if the opposing red/white latest big candles are a change of direction cross or not.
The Mirror would be a 2 day retest of 1370 and then a 2 months slide to downside.
Mirror Mirror on the chart, when will the Markets reverse the direction of the cart?
Uphill is usually a struggle, Downhill could pick up a lot of momentum, we shall see.
I agree on the Melt up
I am still leaning towards the retest of the trendline as resistance as a potential Melt down point, similar to Nov.
Only thing to negate that might be that we have a new high here, but new highs are also 'potential' profit taking tops, so we shall see.
Full Moon equals Rally
At least that is what I have read.
So now we cycle towards New Moon Bearish.
Also periods of high solar flare activity usually lead to high Market volatility, also something I read.
Latest News on the Sun is the latest flare radiation to hit the Earth soon.
I have not targeted either of these for any specific trades in the past though, so we shall see.
Testing some UVXY
Will see how it trades out
Have a wonderful week
UVXY stock split 6:1
The quotes had me shaking my head for a bit until I read the news.
Looks as though the Market Makers were not making enough with a .01 spread? Now the spread is near .08 at times?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ProShares-To-Reverse-Split-indexuniverse-1982672197.html?x=0
"Even though UVXY often trades with a bid/ask spread of just 1 cent, that penny becomes a more conspicuous trading cost the cheaper the ETF becomes. The 1-for-6 reverse split, effective March 8 for shareholders of record as of the close on March 7, will pump up the share price about six times and cut the number of outstanding shares by about the same amount."
Markets should be Done
Yesterday's employment numbers were ignored. Today's payroll numbers were low, but above set 'anticipated'. I don't like the way the numbers are being manipulated and adjusted and ignored. At some point the Markets will come back to reality, hopefully sooner than later. If things continue on this path we will get another significant selloff as in 2008.
Remember to be Safe with your trades and Set stops.
Have a Wonderful Weekend!
1340 support for now
I would love to see a retest of 1320 tomorrow but uncertain if it happens. The breakdowns can happen fast though so a gap down to 1300 is a possibility. Exited 1/5 my SPXU position but holding the rest overnight.
Yes, Max Pain tomorrow could see either a quick gap down and rally, or a spike up that sells. Any spike up that sells would more than likely lead to more selling pressure.
Yesterday the INDU was out of sync with the other Markets with it's gap down and rally day. I will keep watching for those out of sync days that could point to potential trend reversals overnight.
Good Trading!
Looks Good, errands today
Will be on the road a lot but would be watching 1355 as rollover resistance.
Will have to see if this will be a gap down that gets bought or not?
Been a while since we have had a gap down day finish lod at eod?
Will be interesting how it plays out.
Safest to sell some of my SPXU position here.
Enjoy the Day!
Exited TSON this am, Earnings 3/8
News this am and Earnings could go either direction so locked it in this am before hitting the road. Sorry, could not post earlier.
Anticipation is for a good earnings report but stock price could go either way.
Have a Wonderful Week!
Hi Steve, doing Ok here
Just running a lot of errands for Tess.
Yes, tomorrow should be the tell.
So far the 2 day tests of support have been 3 downticks, each progressing lower, but a rally from the 3rd downtick.
This has been going on for quite a while now and I am stuck on 'when it Won't happen' and we get a confirmed rollover.
So up until 'now' it has been that 3rd downtick to cover short and look long again.
That 1364 break looks good but I think any retest 1360/1355 might get some buying support again, maybe.
The selloffs have been quick but all the tails showing recovery.
If those candle tails start filling the bottoms and leaving the tails on the top for some lower spike highs I think we could see the reversal I am looking for until Mid March.
Was looking at Bradley turns and now wondering if another bounce in need and then downside after OEX?
Either way I am still holding Bearish here, jmho
Hope all is well there also, Enjoy the Day!
Same day BB tests
We have both a lower low band piercing and a lower high band piercing. Is the same Volatility from July-Oct going to repeat?
I think so, we shall see.
Thanks, much appreciated
Only on watch for now.
Might be a while before I understand it.
VIX Buy/Write an Option?
Are any of the VIX related Funds available to sell options on them?
Looking at VIX and the premiums attached to it's options it is a good candidate for a Buy/Write selling Calls on it after purchase if you believe the Markets stay in a consolidation mode.
I will also try to keep it on watch to see how the premiums change with the volatility.
I noticed most of VIX type funds are strictly short term trades and the problem would be selling covered calls and then any big spike you would be locked into the shares unless you bought the calls back, keeping you from locking in short term fund profits.
If you bought in near the lows I would expect the ability to sell OTM Calls for a nice premium, but not be able to keep a core holding.
Have you noticed any relation to the volatility in regards to time to expiration? I would anticipate the best pricing would be a few weeks before OEX and the highest pricing during OEX?