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"dollar is falling off a cliff". Sorry man, this is viewed bullish. Remember lower dollar increases profits of multinationals. They all want lower dollar. No matter which way you look the crooks have nothin but bullish news. Check this out:
1. Lower dollar bullish
2. More layoffs bullish
3. Iraq war bullish
4. Increased deficit bullish
5. Short term rates bullish
6. Insider sales bullish
7. Sentiment bullish
8. NYSE specialists bullish
9. Put/call bullish
The only thing that's bearish is "valuation". Hey they'll "fix" that too.
Metsin, look at the tape. New highs again on the NAZ. Going vertical. Tech upgrades coming out next week. Watch for eod ramp. Crooks know the game good, will unload when upgrades hit wires.
Good read. In his last sentence he should have summarized it with "meanwhile our stop-loss was hit and we're out" LOL
I respect Doug, he makes lotsa sense. Have seen him on K&K a few months ago when he was loading up shorts on AOL. Has been bearish for a while, don't know if he capitulated early and reshort. Smart sensible guy, probably takin beating in this rally.
This has the potential to backfire. All the commies have to do is give dubya the bird and threaten to cash in their treasury chips.
Reason is the internal combustion engine. Powerful interests have invested great deal of $$$$ in this method of transportation and make max profit this way. Why take risk by changing rules?
Sherloc, have to agree with you. Short term very bullish, long term ... the piper has to be paid.
"possitive past October suggests a lot more upside"
"the meat of this move hasn't really begun"
Did everybody get brain implants all of a sudden? Alien invasion? Here is a little secret ... Past October suggests nothing! ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
The move hasn't really begun? REALLY? Where have you guys been since March? Another little secret ... THE MOVE HAS BEGUN! YES IT HAS! Pull yourselves together, this is a public forum.
Metsin, I bet you don't know that QQQ earnings expected to more than double in coming year. So QQQ's future PE will be a mere 34 when next year's earnings get factored in. So, for 100% grower you can snap up shares for a mere 34 PE. QQQ shares are priced to move and they are. The trick is if future earnings materialize. But hey with the economy heatin up, who knows?
Also get ready for huge number of upgrades about to hit wires. Every WS shop will be puttin upgrades out on most of tech sector. I got it from an "insider".
and I thought I had lost it. Good to see someone else at a more advanced stage.
"This looks like a monster secular bull"
You just convinced me. I will now get mentally prepared to buy AMZN and EBAY. Thanks. "Monster" super secular bull bout to start. Just put picture of intense-looking Greenspan on my wall.
Metsin, I think he is talking bout different kind of "boom". The crooks are everywhere and all wrong-doers settle quickly and with blessings of our elected officials. It's good for the country to have strong markets, and we're pulling all stops.
Anyway, new highs in the NAZ again today. This train looks unstoppable. Bulls still in command and I am sittin on small put pos.
Wow, I didn't know that we have new all time record on Nasdaq margin debt. Superb piece of info. Tells me margin calls will be major factor when Naz house of cards starts coming down.
Metsin, the economy will boom big time over the next 2 years. Here is what an informed insider believes.
T.J. Rodgers, Cypress Semiconductor's (CY) CEO, has a thought for people who believe the economy will continue to trudge along: "The modest recovery of 2003 will turn into the boom of 2004-2005."
Now they are starting to bang the drums.
Metsin, just read the cliggot piece. Good stuff esp. the thing about starting the recovery from all time highs. But gotta respect the trend and not get heavy short yet. I nimmbled a bit on the dark side today, first serving went in at todays highs. Let's sit back and see how far the "crooks" can take the NAZ before it implodes.
"they're pro's at what?"
They are pros at suckin innocent people into this market for the eventual fleecing that's dead ahead. Not everybody who is buyin right now has a foot on the exit door, some are buying for the proverbial long term.
Hey Metsin, they know what they are doing, my aunt is looking to go long now, thinks NOW is time to start buying stocks. Whoever is behind this ramp knows the score, we are dealing with pros. Above all don't loose your composure, it's only $$.
He is late to the party but hey, how can he go wrong with small caps? Sure bet. The man's got to be a genious. Walk over and congratulate him for a wise decision
TJ, oneischka always right. Uses e-wave. What's his next target?
Metsin, I just bought some puts. Small position. How bout you?
Metsin NAZ at 1860, Party hats ready for NAZ=2K at end of week. LOL
TrainGuy, the interest rate conditions at the moment are very difficult for me to understand. If the economy is truly heating up log-term rates should go up exactly as they are doing right now. But as long as they don't go up "too much" (I dont know what "too much" is) then the stock market should continue up as profits improve in an improving economy. The liquidity induced by the fed is also finding its way to the stock market. Increasing deficits by the government are still small enough as a percent of GDP that nobody is paying attention and this probably will not spoil our party.
The interest rate picture is even more muddy because only the long term yields are moving up. Short term rates are kept artificially low by the fed and most people and companies are converting their debt into short term where interest rates are at record lows. Look how people are moving to adjustable mortgages from 30yr-fixed products. Eventually gravity will bring stocks down but the party is now in full force as nobody wants to be lft out.
It exists.
You didn't like the volume we had today! I though it was pretty healthy considering last week's. Block maybe on sidelines a long time Metsin. You don't have to follow him.
No need to wait for that, you'll be dead and buried long before. Make sure you tell kids your wishes to short Dow at 50K before departin
Metsin, when I was in Elliott wave class they taught us that wave 5 and wave 1 are often equal. So to see how far wave 5 will go measure wave 1 and add it to the wave 4 bottom.
On SPX I get wave 1 = 107 points.
So, wave 5 = 961 + 107 = 1068
There it is, SPX target = 1068. That should take care of the shorts. Then we can start shorting knowing the last 5 shorts have capitulated. Good plan?
Metsin, surprised you didnt know that. More layoffs equals better bottom lines. Better bottom lines equals better stock prices. Of course they can't lay off everybody. Somebody's got to be left behind to report the earnings to wall street.
Also, how about high insider sales equals bullish? I said with insiders gone there is nobody left to sell. dvdmogul said something better: insiders are helping out MM's by sellin them their stock so that MM's can build inventory at a time when supply is tight. These insiders are such nice guys to help out the MM's in a moment of need aren't they?
Hey Metsin, they are giving $5600 price concessions on new BMW 7-series. Looks like the rebates on luxury autos have started. This should kick the luxury market into overdrive. I think I'll go out and get me one. Try to do my part to help the German economy.
Metsin, this guy will make you a believer.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?g=events/iraq/082701iraqplane&a=&tmpl=sl&ns
Metsin, we covered this before. Cuttin jobs improves the bottom line cause it reduces labor costs. The more jobs they cut the more bullish it is as the bottom line gets proportionally stronger
Not a believer hey?
Metsin, you got real talent, you more funny than me, 4sure. It's obvious you and me not making money in this market
Metsin, not a believer huh? Me too, caught on the outside lookin in. Tomorrow morning I am buying at the money QQQ puts and calls both exp. Jan04. This thing is either incredibly cheap or incredibly expensive but either way it should go somewhere fast between now and EOY. VIX at 20 ain't gonna last. What's your take, have you gotten short yet?
TrainGuy, this guy at 21st Century has been short for a while and probably got stopped out today. He's been a big bear opposing the trend all the way up.
Another short bites the dust.
Metsin, big boys back at work from vac are moving market UP. "Crash" now mentioned less often as many getting with program and looking to buy/add at SP500 breakout. Ralph Block may be losing marbles. Despite reported bullish sentiment most market experts interviewed at MarketviewsTV now bearish. Could it be that TRUE sentiment is bearish while they tells us sentiment is bullish? Also insiders record selling in August probably bullish cause with insiders having already sold we got nobody left to sell (except the shorts). What say you?
Peace2all, welcome aboard. Here you'll find many who think exactly the way you do. You are obviously not a believer in the monsterous "economic turnaround" we got going on. But even if you are not, before placing your bets please note the direction of the trend and the monetary policy currently pursued by the fed. And if you still want to short this thing cause of these "other secondary reasons", at least honor those stops. Remember that after NAZ first crossed 4000, it went to 5000 and that was with the fed tightening. Had the fed been cuttin rates, NAZ 10K might have been our final high.
Short term "buy the dip w/ tight stop" is the poker game in Al's table. This is reality whether we like it or not. Don't believe me? Look at a chart of the Nasdaq composite. White candles on the daily, weekly, the monthly and the quarterly. New multimonth closing highs accross the board. Everybody sees this and they still try to pick the top. The reason they try is not because they are inexperienced or stupid but because they think they are smarter and that they have superior trading skills than everyone else. That's why trading is harder to play than poker, chess, or any other thinking man's game. Again welcome aboard.
Metsin, AG has no effect on the NAZ. Holding comfortably above 1800 and could be targeting higher. LOL. Market don't care September is here.
Zeev, "fear of missing it" is very strong right now precisely because investors minds have been conditioned over many decades that markets always go up. So definitely the fear of not being on board when the train leaves the station resonates more than anything at the moment.
The puzzle though is the interest rate thingie. As you said back in the early 80's rates were at 15-16% which takes money away from stocks. Today a whole different picture. I don't know how to explain the recent vertical jump in rates and I have had some discussions with others here on this. The bullish view says that rates are going up simply because the economy is responding to the stimulus and is beginning to heat up which increases the demand for capital. The bearish view is thatthe large and increasing government deficit makes the US a higher risk to investors who then demand a higher interest rate. If rates stabilize here it's good for stocks but if they continue their vertical ascent it'not good. What's your take in this?
TJ, why leave LA? Was it the smog, the crime or the congestion and traffic jams? Cause other than that it's a pretty good place.