Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
He really seems slightly less enthusiastic about Rida
This lack of enthusiasm and the comment in one of the recent conference calls when he used the words pass or fail in regards to Rida..then after he was poked by someone about it says oh well I did not mean to imply I had doubts about SUCCEED...This type of communication change has me a little concerned...Not as to the eventual usefullness of RIDA in other indications but specifically whether the Sarcoma trial is going well or not..Anyone else feel he is playing SUCEED down and that there is some meaning behind that...
Shorts are bound to win a some skirmishes
But the war and final victory will go to the longs...
Rock on ARIAD!
Figured the opening day of the quarter would bring in a volume given the potential for appreciation due to near term catalysts and the share price would rally into the close. I guess I was mistaken..Looking forward to next week...
Scottrade Reports
This should be an accurate status as of Sept 29th
Short Interest
Shares Short (Current Month) 11.4M
Short Ratio 12.1x
Short Interest as % of Float 10.75%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 10.9M
*Data updated twice a month by the 18th and 29th respectively
This will be a fight today....and the longs will be winning this one...
I think there are some funds who have recognized the potential here and will want to add shares Oct 1st (start of 4th quarter). This based on the assessment that ARIAD's positives are building and multiplying at this time. A great 4th quarter and year end play for folks whose bonuses are based on performance..So I agree we will see higher volumes and possibly a $4. share price tomorrow...
There should be even more updated information concerning RIDA endo study at the conference, the data in the abstract represents information that is now 7 to 8 months old..Abstract was written in March....
Don
I know that you've evaluated the Rida phase 3 design before and I believe the focus has been learnings from phase 2 were utilized to increase the likleyhood of success in Phase 3.... specifically there was an indication that a population of patients in phase 2 had a greater response than others i.e.."Results of a recent study of specimens from patients with high-grade sarcomas suggested that the level of expression of phosphorylated S6 was predictive of tumor response to ridaforolimus"...and also that the end points were altered and progression free subjects were the focus to allow Rida effects more time to develop...I guess I am asking if your analysis has any new components to it and could you note in response your overall view of the prospects for success....As always the board appreciates your input..
How great is it to be invested in a company which might help save lives...The following is another message from the patient board...
Hi everyone,
I have some exciting news.
This morning Ariad announced the start of the Phase II Pivotal Trial of their Pan-BCR/ABL inhibitor, AP24534 (Ponatinib). This is the drug I am presently taking in a Phase I trial. It kills all known mutations of the Philadelphia Chromosome including the T315I. It is the only TKI that inhibits every known point mutation. Dr. Talpaz, who has pioneered virtually every CML treatment in use today, says that, "AP24534 is the best drug ever developed for CML".
This Phase II trial is aimed at getting FDA approval for Ponatinib (AP24534). Below, is the press release from this morning followed by a list of US trial centers. I am trying to get a list of World wide trial centers and I will post them ASAP.
Regards,
Jerry
I am concerned
that Merck through the liscensing agreement has control of the announcement methods and timing..Are the announcements concerning SUCCEED or any of the other trials whether they be at scientific meetings or otherwise under Mercks control??? Any thoughts..
Rida Interim
on each of the first two interims which follow progression events it was fairly close to what HB had said..but this third interim (if it is connected to the last third of the events... is way later. All we can do is wait but I wish I had asked about that on a CC just to get his perspective on it...I really wish the first and secondary interims had come with some preliminary data...No I am not obsessed with this stock...if that's what your thinking...Alright so I'm obsessed..
Rida Status
I keep going over the historical calendar and looking at the time intervals between progression events and each interim analysis..If the one third progression events time frames prior to each interim are accurate then each time the interim analysis has been longer from the point where one third events was reached...Now this last interim appears to be way over due...
Just looking for perspectives on this issue...Cause for concern?
Long Ariad
Press Release Source: ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. On Friday September 10, 2010, 5:00 pm
CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA - News) will hold an investor conference call at 9:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, September 13, 2010 to provide an update on the clinical development of its investigational pan-BCR-ABL inhibitor, AP24534. Harvey J. Berger, M.D., chairman and chief executive officer, will host the call along with other members of the ARIAD management team. The Company will announce the highlights in a press release to be issued before the market opens on September 13, 2010 prior to the conference call.
NEWS ON 534 Monday---Just Announced
Press Release Source: ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. On Friday September 10, 2010, 5:00 pm
CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA - News) will hold an investor conference call at 9:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, September 13, 2010 to provide an update on the clinical development of its investigational pan-BCR-ABL inhibitor, AP24534. Harvey J. Berger, M.D., chairman and chief executive officer, will host the call along with other members of the ARIAD management team. The Company will announce the highlights in a press release to be issued before the market opens on September 13, 2010 prior to the conference call.
From the Patient Board
Ariad Phase II status
by Christine
I saw my doc today for my usual 3 month check-in. PCR now pending.
The Ottawa Hospital will be a trial site for Ariad, led by Dr. Bence-Bruckler. I asked about the status of the protocol. She said Ariad and the sites are still working out details and hope to get all the paperwork completed by end of October. Then each site will file for approval to proceed with their IRBs. So though it may get through the red tape and start before Christmas, it is more likely to start in January.
Christine
Is it possible that a major player with an option position at the 3.50 strike price is protecting that position ?
Based on the response rates we see in Phase 1 trial, the speech by the head of the U OF T Cancer Center and the posts from patients..it appears 534 may be best in class...at the moment..but that class is also growing...It appears to me that ARIAD's Lab is a productive one and that the drug candidates they select have stronger potency characteristics at lower dosages..
Additional Patient Comment
Just to chime in, I'm on 60 mg, and with very mild side effects. Of course, everyone reacts differently. One thing to remember when looking at response rates to AP24534, is that that is from a population that already failed a first and second line TKI, so it's not really apples to apples. I am like the others on the drug, very optimistic that it will take CML treatment to the next level, and get us closer and closer to a drug that puts everyone with CML in remission.
I was CCR and 2.8 log reduction at 3 month on Ariad, officially hit MMR by 6 month. I'm hovering around 0.03% (IS) right now.
Just to chime in, I'm on 60 mg, and with very mild side effects. Of course, everyone reacts differently. One thing to remember when looking at response rates to AP24534, is that that is from a population that already failed a first and second line TKI, so it's not really apples to apples. I am like the others on the drug, very optimistic that it will take CML treatment to the next level, and get us closer and closer to a drug that puts everyone with CML in remission.
I was CCR and 2.8 log reduction at 3 month on Ariad, officially hit MMR by 6 month. I'm hovering around 0.03% (IS) right now.
Some time ago somwone on the Yahoo board described an ongoing battle between the longs and shorts as a "Knife Fight". (the current action may be that or more likely some manipulation to allow big investors to get in) but that is what this is feeling like..a knife fight. With the large funds ability to move shares around and impact trajectory of the PPS, the system seems clearly rigged and transparency for the little retail investor like myself is just not there...
I am long just under 20k shares at present and believe the stock will be well over $10. no later than June 2011..If Rida succeeds and 534 is moving along it could be approaching $20.00 by that time....Wish I had so much money I didn't care about the wait....