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Zeev:
Please, Please watch and listen to the below link and give us your opinion...The financial system is in danger.
NEW - Animated, Narrated Slideshow by Dr. Patrick Byrne, CEO of OSTK, which describes the process and the scope of the FTD problem. This is an amazing effort, which should be distributed to every person you know. There is now no excuse for ignorance of the problem.
http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html
God Bless,
TT
Zeev: You follow Cramer? a fan? Wow!
Cramer hates NFI. Just a thought.
Merry Christmas and God Bless to all,
TT
Every investor needs to become of aware of this issue that is destroying the integrity of the stock market.
This is a must listen for all stock market investors. Shocking to say the least. I'm re-evaluating my positions! Found this at ncans.net
http://cfrn.net/investigates/budburrell2.m3u
God Bless,
TT
To all: This is a must listen for all stock market investors. Shocking to say the least. I'm re-evaluating my positions! Found this at ncans.net
http://cfrn.net/investigates/budburrell2.m3u
God Bless,
TT
Belgie:
I don't think I continually pump NFI? Contrarily, I seldom post.
I do try and engage Zeev in the MREIT conversation because he is such an astute trader and has ignored the MREIT sector.
I'm working towards a $0 cost basis through collecting dividends and writing puts and calls (incidentally I expect some stock to be put to me for the Nov 30 puts that I wrote) but the calls I wrote expired worthless and the proceeds were credited to my account which more than compensated for the put loss and I'm in fact excited to own more stock to be eligible to collect the Dec. dividend.
I've been fortunate with my NFI investment (but not so fortunate in others) and I use this forum to share information. I'm not a day trader as I still work and do the best I can
Hey we're still 9-2 with a solid win over Oklahoma.
Good luck and God Bless,
TT
Hi osprey:
Most investors are ignorant how NFI operates and I don't disagree with risk averse mentality. If it is too complicated to understand you should stay away from it and if you are using Barrons as a barometer that compares NFI as a Ponzi scam I understand your due diligence approach.
$20 dollars in dividends over the next 26 months is what I'm interested in, and with $6.50 or so already in the bank and a growing portfolio I like their chances.
Go here if you need info. http://nfi-info.net/
Good luck and God Bless,
TT
Zeev:
I'm wondering if you're still thinking about NFI. I think NFI will pay $20 in dividends in the next 26 months. They are the most solid MREIT out there. With 3qtrs of dividends in the bank.
Just wondering and God Bless,
TT
Hi zturk:
Just have to gloat a little about Texas Tech they are (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) and travel to Austin this weekend to face Texas (6-0, 3-0).
Sort of a big test, gets my mind off the financial problems.
Good Luck to you and God Bless,
TT
Zeev:
The MREIT stocks have taken a beating NFI, RWT, IMH, SAX all are down but have come back a little bit in the last few daya. I've done just barely OK on the protective calls I've written and expect to have some stock put to me soon... so I expect to be the proud owner of more MREITS on 10/21. Oh well?
Been out of sorts lately, been advised by the doctor to improve my cardio/vascular fitness. Any suggestions on a program? Just wondering aloud?
God Bless,
TT
hk2:
Who is they? That news link is not NFI or SAX.
See ya,
TT
Zeev:
I've been getting private emails asking for advise on investing in NFI and SAX. NFI has been good to me and that sector is at a 52 week low. I'm satisfied collecting my dividend and getting paid to wait. I am not qualified to give advise to others about what they should do with their IRA's. For info on NFI go here: http://nfi-info.net/
Maybe you could post some recommendations for these questioning investors.
Thanks and God Bless,
TT
Tuna:
Thanks for your reply. Hey our Red Raiders are something else this year #13. We'll see how we do against Nebraska this weekend.
Thanks again,
TT
choad:
I wonder if you know what tithing means?
I'll stay with NFI and report my results now and again.
God Bless,
TT
Tuna:
With all the trouble attached to daytrading, or pleasure/excitement I suppose? Have you ever thought about investing in MREITS like NFI. My broker brought this trading strategy to my attention about selling calls and puts to protect your position while collecting dividends in excess of 15%.
I've done phenomenally well these last 2 years and hope to have a $0 cost basis in my NFI investment by next year.
Nobody here talks about this strategy. Am I on another planet to the folks here when I post month after month about the gains? Is it too simple? Am I to simple?
Good Luck and Gob Bless,
TT
Zeev:
Wondered if you have changed your position on NFI. NFI is close to it's 52 week low. NFI has been very good to me paying dividends, and my broker has had me selling selective calls and puts on the stock with the goal of reducing my cost basis to $0 which could be achieved in 2006.
I'm in SAX also if you are interested?
By the way how is ROOTS doing?
God Bless,
TT
To all:
I'm adding SAX today.
Thanks,
TT
Does anyone follow DY
Thanks,
TT
Zeev:
This is getting crazier, OSTK is taking on another hedge fund manager on CNBC.
Never seen this?
http://www.vmsdigital.com/MyFiles.aspx?Onum=AC9D6FF5-1F04-4FA6-BC44-A160C543BE71
God Bless,
TT
Zeev:
Don't know if you are following this naked shorting thing http://ncans.net/ put the following press release sure is a different spin on who is sueing who.
Hedge funds under attack?
Curious.
Good Luck and God Bless,
TT
Press Release Source: Christian Smith & Jewell
John O'Quinn and His Legal Team File Lawsuit Against Gradient Analytics, Inc. and Rocker Partners LLP. on Behalf of Overstock.com, Inc.
Thursday August 11, 4:47 pm ET
HOUSTON, Aug. 11 /PRNewswire/ A civil complaint against Gradient Analytics, Inc., Rocker Partners LP., David Rocker, Marc Cohodes and others for unfair business practices was filed today by John O'Quinn and his legal consortium on behalf of online retailer Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK - News).
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Overstock.com launched its first website through which customers could purchase products in 1999. Its overall business and gross revenues have grown steadily and consistently, at a rate of approximately 100% each year since 2000. Its annual revenues for the year ending December 31, 2004 were approximately $500 million.
The complaint alleges that Gradient Analytics, Inc., an influential company that sells reports and analyses on publicly traded companies to hedge funds, traditional mutual funds, and provides them to financial commentators such as MSNBC, is closely aligned with various stock hedge funds. The complaint alleges that Gradient and Rocker Partners LP, which is owned and controlled by David Rocker and Michael Cohodes, individually and/or through Rocker Offshore or Rocker Management, conspired to denigrate Overstock.com's business so as to reap personal profits for themselves.
Dr. Patrick Byrne, founder and president of Overstock.com, commented: "What's at stake here is innovation and entrepreneurship in America. My company has been attacked and I'm not going to take this lying down. In joining forces with John O'Quinn and his team of lawyers, I think we have what it takes to win. We certainly have what it takes to fight."
Attorney John O'Quinn also commented: "We have an expression in Texas about the skill of matching the mules. Combining our lawyers and a-level experts with the tenacity, verve and commitment of Overstock.com CEO Dr. Patrick Byrne is a powerful alliance, hitched up for the long haul to win this battle. It is time someone stops these offshore hedge funds from taking advantage of average working Americans and American Public companies. That someone is us."
Attorney Adam Voyles added: "I am speaking for the entire consortium when I say that we are prepared to obtain justice for our client from these Defendants and all others who aided them in these illegal acts. It is time our government authorities and regulators pay attention to the large number of offshore hedge funds that are taking advantage of hard working Americans."
In the actions, filed in Marin County California Superior Court, Overstock.com is represented by the law firms of O'Quinn, Laminack & Pirtle, Christian Smith & Jewell, and Heard, Robins, Cloud, Lubel & Greenwood, LLP, all of Houston, Texas, Woodbury & Kessler, PC of Salt Lake City, Utah, the Siegler Law Group, Inc, of Beverly Hills, California and Koerner Silberberg and Weiner, LLP of New York, New York.
Tarado:
NFI is a sub-prime lender and has a different model than most reits. That is why my broker likes it so much. They so far have bucked the trend of their competition and just keep having blow out qtr. after blowout qtr. But all good things must end. But I'm OK with the share price as long as they keep paying me to watch.
check here if you're interested http://nfi-info.net/
Take care,
TT
Tarado:
I'm working towards a zero cost basis on NFI probably by next June. I first bought about a 1.5 year ago. My broker has been very agressive with selling mostly puts and some calls. And of course the unbelievable dividend. I've collected about nearly $10.00 in the last 1.5 years in dividends alone.
My broker likes it and he's done well for us.
That share price does move around.
All the best,
TT
Hi chanyu:
My broker sold 50 put contracts on the Dec. 30's at $1.80 which brought an additional $9000 into my account.
I expect NFI to pay at least another $4.20 in dividends by years end which will net me another $21,000.
NFI has been very good to me. But beware Zeev does not like the stock.
Please do your own due diligence. Many here think it's a loser.
God Bless,
TT
Overstock.com Files Lawsuit Against Rocker Partners and Gradient Analytics; Company President to Hold Live Webcast Friday, August 12, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time
Thursday August 11, 1:47 pm ET
SALT LAKE CITY, Aug. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Overstock.com® (Nasdaq: OSTK - News) today announced that it has filed an unfair business practices lawsuit against Gradient Analytics, Inc., Rocker Partners LP, Rocker Management LLC, Rocker Offshore Management Company, Inc., David Rocker, Marc Cohodes, James Carr Bettis, Donn Vickrey, and Matthew Kliber in the Superior Court of California in the county of Marin. The complaint, available for download at http://www.shareholder.com/overstock, alleges that the Defendants have conspired to denigrate Overstock.com's business for personal profit.
Zeev:
I've had a long term position in SONS and they finally had good earnings. Sell, buy more, hold? any opinion?
Thanks,
TT
Zeev:
Here is a short version of what NFI does.. copied from a website. It seems we're looking at $7.00 in dividends before years end if you are interested.
God Bless,
TT
"""NFI is in the business of packaging loans and selling bonds on the package. The loans come from retail (their brokers) and wholesale (other brokers). They decided a year ago that it was cheaper to buy loans than to pay for a bunch of people to sit at desks and take loan apps. Ignore where the loans come from. Look at the spread between what the loans cost and what they pay when the bonds sell. Take a look at loan originations vs. payoffs of loans. Notice that the bonds are non-recourse with significant overcollateralization.
The loans they buy are filtered and double checked so that they can be packaged into AAA bonds (for the most part). Don't look at NFI as a loan company. Their value added is filtering, packaging, and securitizing the loans."""
Zeev:
Not many follow NFI. 20% annual returns are nothing compared to what you guys are making on GOOG. But combining those NFI dividends with the put and call writing my broker has me into has me on the way to 35% to 45% annual returns (really rich premiums). Of course all that can change very fast as we all know.
If you have time take a look at boring old NFI.
Take care,
TT
Hi Zeev:
Hope you covered your IBM short, or maybe you know there is plenty of time later, I haven't a clue. I'm too busy selling calls and puts monthly on NFI and collecting dividends. Have had some stock put to me last month and was happy to acquire at the premium and I collected and kept all of the stock on the 40 calls I wrote last month for a great short term percentage gain.
There are a few dividend announcements in the next few months if you are interested.
Anyhow, thanks for the core holding advise it has worked just fine.
BTW did you notice NFI had a record QTR.
Good luck and God Bless,
TT
Zeev:
I sent you the below message a few days ago..?...and wondered if it was worth an opinion, but I think not. I'm sure you are busy.
But my question to the board is why people ignore stocks that have a likely 20% percent returns (not to mention returns on the price per share), (or the strategy of selling calls and puts on these rich premiums in a safe stock) in exchange for trading volatile issues like GOOG. It seems for the thrill.
Anyhow, God Bless you Zeev and your family,
TT
Zeev:
NFI will declare 4 dividends between the end of July and the end of December (a span of 5 months). It has been speculated that the regular dividend will be $1.40 per share along with a special of $1.50. For a total of $5.60. The stock is currently at $40.
http://www.novastarmortgage.com/pdf-bin/earningshistory.pdf
God Bless,
Zeev:
NFI will declare 4 dividends between the end of July and the end of December (a span of 5 months). It has been speculated that the regular dividend will be $1.40 per share along with a special of $1.50. For a total of $5.60. The stock is currently at $40.
http://www.novastarmortgage.com/pdf-bin/earningshistory.pdf
God Bless,
TT
Barrons article debunked on NFI
http://www.nfi-info.net/news.htm
I've read it now, and seen the background of the fund manager. He has all the analytic depth of a typical equity analyst.
His thesis on NFI is based on three assumptions that have not been true in the past, but he thinks might be true in the future:
1) Capital markets will stop buying ABS
2) Credit performance at NFI will stop being better than the rest of the industry, and will significantly decline in the future.
3) That NFI will not be able to raise capital to continue to grow its portfolio (there's also the statement that they won't be able to originate enough, but a I see a disconnect there, becasue then they wouldn't need to raise new capital).
He also brings up the gain-on-sale "issue". Here's why he's wrong about that one: NFI does not, as he assumes, make optimistic assumptions about future cash flows when it books a gain on sale. It just books the sale at the wholesale market price, and assigns an earnings accrual rate that gives the future cash flows a present value equal to the real-world price derived from the wholesale value of the loan pool. He also misses the fact that using the sale treatment allows NFI to finance its investment via non-recourse NIMs.
Let's look at this in an analogy to another popular income investment, the CanRoys.... Imagine two forms for CanRoys... One only states its income when the sell oil at the spot price. The other enters long-term delivery contracts, and sells non-recourse bonds secured by those contracts.
Now, let's look at how the economics might work. Company A raises $30 million to buy a new field. It invests all the money, and pumps oil for the next ten years on a declining schedule, taking out $10 million in sales the first year, $9 the next, $8 the next, and so on, as long as the price of oil stays the same. Company B buys a similar field for $30 million and enters a contract to sell the next $28 million of production, conservatively projected at $9, $7, $5, $4 and $3, and securizes that contract to get $25 million today.
When both fields produce as expected, the 'conservative' company A realizes $25 profit over ten years on its $30 investment by receiving $55 over ten years. Company B ends up paying out only $27 to pay back the $25 million in bonds it issued because the money comes in quicker than the conservative projection, and debt is paid off in only three years. For its net investment of $5, it receives $28 starting in year four. The return on capital for Company B is more than twice the return of Company A.
The only way Company B fails to be worth more than twice as much per dollar of capital of Company A is if the oil fields do not produce as expected. Our NFI field has consistently produced *better* than expected, and tells us every month how it's going. While the past can be no guarantee as to future performance, it's generally a bad bet to assume that it's going to be the opposite of the past in the future, and risk your money on that being the correct view.
Zeev: How would I know ahead of time? Was that sarcasm?
TT
Zeev:
SBUX announces same store sales for June in a few days. If they aren't as good as expected you could make a killing. If they are good, well that could be?
Good Luck,
TT
delete
TT
Zeev:
I took a small profit on SBUX and noticed you shorted SBUX around $50 (stock now $55). Did your stop trigger? Are you doubling down from here since you except new lows? Think this high price of $55 might be a good place to initiate a short.
Thank you,
TT
What is NLBNL?
TT
Zeev:
Thank you. I've noticed you've been talking about ECST. Well it's $2.85. Is there hope?
TT
Zeev:
I'm watching SBUX and would like to know when you cover. You are expecting new lows? Where will those new lows settle out?
TT
Zeev:
SBUX opens like ten new stores every week. Established stores grow from 3 to 9% every month...the company is buying back it's stock. People are drinking more coffee, bigger offerings in grocery stores. We have 3 in little ol Lubbock. I hope your shotrt works well for you in the short-term. But, long term I don't know.
Bye,
TT
Zeev:
What made these UTSI insiders buy in Sept. 04?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=UTSI
Curious?
God Bless,
TT
Zeev:
You don't think the expansion to China will boost SBUX over the next year? Is your SBUX short designed for the very short term?
This chart is hard to argue with http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SBUX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= but on the other hand rich valuations will fall?
TT