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MMs ???
How can you blame the MMs when the total volume is about $2200 worth of stock?
This isn't going north until we have $100,000 to $300,000 worth of stock traded in a day.
Just wait...but don't blame the MMs .
A1
The big unanswered question is... what is the company worth as it turns the corner from RED to BLACK?
I don't need bottom line results right now... the 10Qs do that...we need top line numbers. I want to get a feel for the present top line and next year's...all the other numbers can be figured out from there. The tough part is figuring out the market potential and the growth rate.
Even if CFP isn't quite here, as long as the second quarter is earnings positive , I am hanging on for the big payday.
A1
Welcome back MBD.... are you here to turn this full scale retreat into a full blown attack? The troops are restless and need some leadership. The men need real meat to chew on. They can't survive off of fluff.
Seriously, what is the company worth at CFP?
A1
More revenue... traction in a new vert market.
Not a sinking ship.
A1
Very interesting...Harris isn't just a good partner to have; somewhere down the road, they would be the perfect fit for a buy out... for now let's see if the ERF website changes its Strategic Partners page soon.
May 15th or earlier we should see a "near CFP" 10Q... what kind of PPS does that command?
No reason to be trading where we are... time to get this train on a track headed NORTH!
Looking for a 20M+ share day to get it all started.
A1
It's about that time.
Either this thing is a scam or the PPS is going to catch fire.
I hope DC realizes that his stubbornness has cost all of us a ton of money. Inventors and founders of companies don't usually make the best CEOs...why does he think he is the exception?
The mind is a terrible thing to waste... but an over sized ego can f'up most anything.
This company will always be under valued with DC at the helm...and with so many shares in his control...never again for me...no more investing in companies that are controlled by just one person.
Great fishing today... can't wait to sell them back in a better market.
A1
Ok... so if CFP won't be known for a week, I would speculate that it is real close; maybe it is CFP... maybe it isn't but so what. From a long's perspective, this is great news. If they are within $100k plus or minus, that is terrific... that would likely lead to an earning positive year... especially if oil prices don't come back down under $100/b soon. Thumbs up on the CFP quest.
Next topic... DC "...indicated that more O/G would be signing on if our price was higher" WTF?... customers won't sign a contract with low market cap vendors... really. This is a concern. What do you think the critical MC is? or is it PPS related? If it is PPS and not MC, do the dreaded RS now and sign those contracts. If it is MC related, it is a chicken and egg problem. It will require focusing on the mom and pop drilling companies to create the necessary revenue stream to get to whatever critical MC is required... once that point is crossed, WHAM!... the snow ball accelerates and the PPS jumps way up... another thumbs up for ERF longs.
Now... what is this about SLB? SLB did a bridge loan and have been selling our shares? I find this really hard to believe. I can see some sleazy investment group doing this but not an 800lb gorilla like SLB. So... let me go two ways here. If it isn't SLB and it is some investment group, why would they be dumping stock into the public market? Dumping tons of stock does nothing but depress the stock price; its kind of a dumb way to treat an investment... now, if they shorted it, then they have a reason to piss on our parade.... Shorting a stock worth pennies, not likely... so back to SLB, why would SLB be dumping shares into the market and keeping ERF's PPS down???? Does anyone have a theory on this? I can't imagine why SLB would be so interested in what ERF's PPS is unless it had something to do with the sale of their Global Connectivity Division to Harris Corp... I have been trying to learn more about this deal since I read it here on the boards. The agreement was announced back in November and it was meant to close already... I have tried to get Harris IR people to comment on the closing but I have gotten nowhere. Could the two things be connected? This is like a bad spy novel... what's next?
SLB possibly owing ERF some money?? I haven't seen anything in the receivables to make me think that something sizable is coming but if it is a contractual dispute????... then, it wouldn't show up on their balance sheet. It wouldn't show up anywhere except a court room or in arbitration... Hmmm? More far fetched spy novel, long shot stuff... I am not hanging my hat on that possibility... Even though it is mentioned in the 10k, something isn't sitting well with me on this topic... if a check comes in from SLB, it's gravy, not meat.
All in all... the fishing is good and the tides coming in. Looking forward to a great year.
Anyone have something to add that could make more sense of the SLB thing?
A1
"But the selling is almost over" .... what does that mean?
There is no buying, if there is no selling... so help me out here.
A1
B/A is the MM price that they will buy and sell their inventory.
This is not the public bid/ask. What happens in between is the MM matching bid/ask from the public...we never see these prices until they trade.
A1
Impersonating someone is one thing; it's extremely dishonest and low... taking the name of a dead man is whole different case of mental sickness that I just don't understand.
The rat didn't take long to reveal himself. I was skeptical day one. I had many conversations with the real King when he was fighting for his life. He was a good man, and I hate to see some idiot, probably one that we are all familiar with, try to trick his way into a conversation on the board here in an effort to bash, while hidden behind false or stolen credibility... it's way below pitiful... you should be ashamed.
What goes around comes around... impersonating a dead man might just haunt you one day.
Don't continue this sick charade... just move on quietly knowing that you did a really wrong thing here.
To spell it out for the less informed... ERF_King used to be one of the Y-board's regulars a few years ago. He was very sharp and a true gentleman. He fought a long hard battle with cancer. More recently, the newly created user name here tried to con his way onto the credible list but to no avail. He is Bert or Rnut or WhamJammer or Adumbeo ... whoever... He has gone to the lowest level and should be ignored.
To the real king, where ever you are, no impersonator is going to change a thing... miss you and hope that you family is doing well.
A1
Disappointed.. sure. But that is what happens when you get a little too ahead of yourself. But before we talk about the 10k...
Be forewarned an impostor is among us. Make sure you know who is on your team and who is working against you.
As for the 10k, I am guilty of not being very thorough; I only scanned it. I saw two things that I liked... EC pointed out that the 53 trailers are coming here in April and/or May... his math said $185k per month... my math is real similar, I think I used $3400 per month, but the point is, the cash cow is warming up.
I also looked at the EBI revenues at 15% ... this is the number that is going to be the headline grabber... EBI is going to ignite and take the company to a stable orbit.
I will pick through the rest later this weekend.
Froggy figures that news is coming tomorrow... I'd say next week at the earliest. But the real news should be here by the middle of May... that will be the show... or ... I could be hitting the road. I can't keep doing this without some real meat to chew on... I am hungry but I am looking ahead for more.
I talked with people in the industry... "earnings protection" was the priority ... spending was restricted to protect earnings... if something new was in the works for 2010, it was postponed until 2011 unless it significantly increased revenues or margins. The big boys made sure that they hit their earnings estimates to protect their PPS. So, really... these 2010 numbers aren't a surprise... nor was it a surprise to hear DC talk about the 4th quarter a while back... he said that in the fourth Q, there was a surge in interest in ERF (not revenue) .... so the lagging affect should just start hitting the books here in late Q1 and continue for the rest of the year... and some.
So now what... we are based out here at 2 cents minus... here we sit... no higher... no lower... we wait 6 weeks for the proof that ERF is on the right track... if there is good news in the meantime, then ride the wave but don't expect much. Contracts take time... the red tape of these big oil giants is tough... getting on the approved vendor list isn't always a snap...it takes time and effort. I know, I used to work for one.
Oil is over $100/b and many of the oil industry suppliers are way up in their stock prices, just in the last few weeks. ERF is going to hit its stride at just the right time.
2010... glad you are behind us now... 2011, come on baby... be the one!
Watch out for the rat.
A1
Before we talk about the 10k... let me talk about an analogy.
If you were 10 years old and you had some money to spend in a candy shop, you have 2 choices in this town. Choice one is in a nice neighborhood where you buy your candy and walk home... no problem.
Choice 2 is a little scarier... this store is in a tough neighborhood. When you buy candy at this store you know that you are going to lose some to a bully on the way home... thing is, the bully only takes 50% of your candy every time.
So which candy store would you go to? Not to tough to figure that out. But before we make a decision on where we are going to buy some teeth rot, let's look at one more variable.
The store on the bad side of town sells its candy at 75% off. Now we have a decision. If you are brave and can stand the bully taking half your candy, you end up with more for your dollar by going to the other side of town. If you want to pay full retail and not have someone take from you, then you will end up with less loot at the end of the day.
Choices... hmmm. A ten dollar bill buys you $10 dollars worth of candy from one... and ten dollars of candy on the other side of town lets you bring home $20 worth... even after you had half taken away.
Buying ERF is like buying discounted candy. The Big D bully is going to take half away someday... but you are buying it at a huge discount and you will take home a whole lot more if you have the stomach for it.
Look at buying in from a Market Cap point of view. Let's make up some numbers for the sake of argument. Let's assume that ERF is CFP this quarter and at the end of 2011 is has an EBITDA of $15m. What is it worth on the street? I will use a PE of 10 to be safe and some rounded up numbers for issued shares, 500m today and 1 billion post bullying. At $15m EBITDA, the PPS is 15 cents with bullying and 30 cents without. So it would be likely the the PPS would end up somewhere in between because it isn't likely that all the authorized get dumped into the system in 12 months.
Now before we get too far down the road here... the big questions are these... is the company going to turn the corner? And if they do, what are the kind of numbers they can pull?
I believe that ... finally... ERF has turned the corner... I am basing that on the March 16th's fluff PR and I quote ""I'm very pleased to report to our shareholders that the potential that ERF Wireless has long seen in our oil and gas business has now become a reality." He is saying that ERF turned the corner.
So... is a $15M EBITDA within reach... and where could it be in another year? I think it could be 2 or three times higher than that. Use a spread sheet and go back to the Mithra report to pull some numbers .... I can see some huge potential here and I am only using the numbers from the O&G industry. The numbers compound as these are reoccurring revenues with great margins, so ERF is perfectly capable of making some serious money over the next 2-5 years... even if the Big D is going to get us.
So ... what about Q4 numbers? Q3 total revenue was just under $1.5m if I remember right... so I am looking for $3m as huge improvement... $2.5m would make me comfortable. Under $2.5 and I will be disappointed. But really, Q4 isn't that important. Even with a $3m, call it a triple for you baseball guys, that would be great but I really don't expect to see a ton of PPS movement if it is a triple.
I want to hear what comes out after the 10K and then I want to see the 10Q in May. That is the time line for PPS movement. Remember how DC said in that same PR, "these factors should significantly improve the potential for ERF Wireless to soon achieve our short term objective of becoming cash flow positive and ultimately achieve overall profitability." ... let's look for some headlines soon. The 10k is only going to confirm that some progress was made... but the FIRST QUARTER numbers are going to make this all so real...
If we get numbers today, or next week ... or the next week... that is good. Because we need to hear more from the front office... we need to figure out what the real potential is and we have to understand that we are owners of a very undervalued company.
If ERF could find the right guy for the job... it is time for the ROADSHOW... someone to hit the big cities where the investors are and start beating the drum because... finally, at long last... ERF has a story that people would want to hear about.
Double digits just before or just after the first quarter numbers are released... that is what I am looking forward to.
GL and BOL ... this is our year!
A1
King,
When you were getting treated at the Farber Center there in NYC, we talked about the shows on Broadway,and if ERFW hits it big we were going to plan a ski trip to Tahoe....well, it may be a while before we go skiing...at the time we were looking at the Mithra report and its $1.70 projection....still think we might get there?
A1
My gut says that the crooked MMs will load up their inventories today, and they will make a killing post 10k.
Fact is, DC doesn't have a story to tell the media until ERF is CFP.
A1
So the 10k is coming... will it be this week? or will they need an extension?
I have been asked by many if a strong Q4 will push the PPS north and I don't have a good answer... the same problem remains, even with good numbers... who is looking at the stock? Who is on the sidelines ready to pull the trigger upon the release of a strong Q or a meaty PR? My gut says that there aren't enough on the sidelines watching.
So... we have longs here wanting to make a profit but we will continue to stand around playing with our chubbies because the numbers looks good but we don't have a date... like a ship load of war vets coming home to an empty wharf... the war was won and no one is there to meet them... whoopie {finger twirling in the air}.
What we need is attention brought to the company... a USA Today article or a WSJ article.
CFP closing in and becoming a reality isn't headline material for the media... they want to report on "movers and shakers" who are conquering the war over industry market share. Is ERF about to become the O&G industry standard for communications? Are they going to scoop up a whole bunch of new customers? Is ERF's penetration into the O&G market going to send shock waves that will be influential in the other industries that ERF is targeting?
What is the story that makes this media worthy? What has to be reported for people to come to the sidelines, do some DD and write a check to get in?
If there is big money to be made, large gross revenues with high margins, then the Wall street boys might start paying attention... until the REAL numbers are manifested, we don't have much of a chance to really hit the proper PPS... so be patient. Time feels like it is working against us because we are impatient. Give it a few more quarters and it should be worth the wait. Don't settle on making a few pennies, when nickles, dimes and quarters are on the horizon.
Not just O&G... banks, edu and medical... ERF is just coming into its own. "Wireless" is going to be a buzz word for years to come.
HOLD on for the ride. I am hoping the 10k is just the first of many steps in the right direction of a prosperous journey.
A1
SKI ?
A1
KING... is it really you... after all these years? If it is you for real, I will see it as a sign of a much brighter future around here.... but I am all too curious...
Last time we communicated you were in what city?
Were you SKIing in those days?
If it is you, you will have the answers... sorry for the questions but I need to know who I am talking to.
You can reach me at the email A1 name @ yahoo.com if would prefer.
A1
Not one website... no surprise after looking at the activity on the board.
Looking for more than a $2M 4th Q... the revenues should be more like $3M if they want to close the gap in Q1... I love a reoccurring revenue stream.
Looking for a 5M+++ share day to get things going again... until then, enjoy the fishing...
A1
7 is down to 3 today... let's hope it goes back up again on Monday.
I see next week as "moving week"... they tested the waters... next they will come here to do business... it just takes a few brave souls to start the march.
The 10k is coming closer with every passing day.
Have a good weekend...
A1
Yesterday was a test...they didn't come here ready to write a check...they were testing the waters.
Notice that the pumpers are gone...for now. They will be back with a full army, if and when they see an opportunity.
Don't expect much today... but don't think that they are gone for good.
They are out there...watching, waiting, listening...very quietly.
7 is a big number... they will be back...there is blood in the water. And they smell it.
A1
7 stock pickers have ERF on there list... something is cooking in the kitchen. If this doesn't give a long a chubby, then he is short, ... on brains.
I don't care if they are paid or have bought a boat load over the last few days... fact is they are on our team right now.
http://www.qualitystocks.net/newsletter/chart.html
The last time we had this kind of attention, we went north by northeast in a hurry. Check the chart... it was 2008 Dec into Jan of 2009.
Something is up... it took a couple of weeks to get to the good part last time... I'd say we are going to see a busy board for the next few weeks again. It isn't just CFP coming... it has to be bigger than that... these guys are here to make triple digit percentages.
Some of you were screaming at the MMs today... fact is, you should have been yelling at the sellers. They are the light weights that held us back today... once the light weights are cleared out... WE MOVE... and not until then.
Looking for more volume and then a run.
Hold if you can... it could be a fun ride if the supply dries up.
A1
Who is selling at these prices?
100 posts today... 2.3m shares and no movement...go figure!
A1
If you aren't CFP, why would you be clearing out most of the balance sheet debt?
ERF is making money...right now! It's no secret.
We should hit 15 cents two weeks post Q1 numbers release.
Japan has s damper on this week's trading, but I am looking for a nice rebound next week.
A1
On 2 penny stock pickers feature list last night... QS and FeedBlitz, a new one.
Lots of chit chat last night and early this morning... let's see I'd they put their money where they post.
A1
Reading between the lines here... jmho
Q4-10 Better than Q3..... PPS pusher
Q1-11 CFP ............... PPS multiplier
Q2-11 Earnings positive... PPS Snowballer
We could easily hit 40-50 cents this year.... wouldn't that be a hoot.
My biggest worry is to read that ANGUS has loaned more money to the company and has a pocket full of convertibles at these RIDICULOUSLY LOW PRICES! ... nuf said? I hope they read this and tread real lightly.
I liked something else in the PR... HEALTHCARE and EDUCATION ... oh yeah! The vertical markets all stacking up with high margins... this is going to be our year... finally.
BOL ... if MDB is right about SLB, this thing is going to launch with rocket fueled afterburners. An influx of cash with CFP and EP closing in, sets this baby into the penny stock 2011 yearbook of super-mega success stories.
Let's walk, before we sprint. Next base at 4 cents??? sure hope so. Double digits not too far away now.
A1
Almost time to roll? ... only Quality Stocks has ERF listed... so far. Has anyone seen ERF on a penny stock website today?
Last year the 10k was released on March 31... who's taking the over and who is taking the under?
If there is going to be news before the 10k, will it be this week or next? I'd settle for more fluff. Connecting the dots is getting easier and easier with all the practice we have had.
Frog... keep the articles coming... and stay out of trouble.
A1
Time to roll...
Look at the top of the list... I've been watching for this for a long time. For anyone here who has stood the test of time, you will remember that it was this website's recommendation that was the one that spurred the major run of 2 years ago. Well, ERF is back on the list, right there at the top.
http://www.qualitystocks.net/newsletter/newsletter.html
I have no association with this website. I read it daily just for this one reason.
That article that frog posted this weekend had nothing new in it right?... not for me. I saw Quality Stocks name on it and I have been keyed up ever since.
Now, don't jump the gun here. Watch to see if other penny stock pickers have ERF listed this week. If we get on 3-5 sites for a couple of days in a row, you will likely see two things. 1) an increase in newbies here and on the Y-board and 2) the volume will pick up.
Enjoy the week... this could be the kick off that we have been waiting for .... screw the 4 cents base... let's just march right on up to the 6s!
Get your ticket as soon as the train starts moving... then jump on.
A1
Sometimes it is hard to see the obvious... 7 MSAs... that is a sign of a company about to explode... the footprint grows like a snowball and no one is giving this stock a second look... joke is on the ignorant and sellers....
If you own a tower company would you sign a MSA with a sinking ship... not me... I'd look at their books and their growth plans, if I like it, I sign a MSA and let them announce it... if I don't like it, I might tell them to take a hike or take their money but tell them that they can't make the agreement public... who wants to be associated with an albatross... 7 MSAs... can't y'all connect the dots... (great pun if you are looking at the coverage map)
Let's just get the 10k on the table and open up the PR pipeline... no way they talk about anything good for the rest of the month... not before numbers.... but after... they best have some stacked up gun powder ready to put on a good show.
Peace.
A1
Last year's 10k was released on March 31... so we have some time to kill... unless it is late, in which case we have a lot of time to kill.
We need to see a serious jump in Q4 total revenues... like $3m plus... that would be a double over Q3's $1.5 What are the odds the we can get a CC done with some good questions in it? DC has a lot to answer for, don't ya think? I got 500 million new questions to ask.
I keep watching the volume, wondering.... when is the next penny stock picker going to feature ERF? We need to see 8M share days here ... again and again... that would get the MMs attention. Volume keeps them honest.
Enjoy the fishing... I can't figure if this is a better time to drop a hook or if it is going to be better at the end of the month, closer to 10K time... Bon chance
A1
Hey dial up fans... are you going continue to use dial up if someone installed fiber optics on your street? No wait, don't answer that question, it gets better. If you paid more for dial up and your neighbors are using the fiber optics that is up and running with less down time than your dial up.... Are you going to continue to use the dial up? Only if you are a turtle named Mr Slowsky and you have daydreams about hot chicks while you are waiting for you downloads... everyone else will be on the fiber optics.
Frog... I borrowed your dial up analogy... thanks you can have it back in a minute.
ERF is building the Eagle Ford network for one player that was smart enough to sign up for it.... once it is done, mid-year, don't you think the rest of the neighboring competitors are going to be signing up?
The next neighborhood that they hinted at is the Bakken... did anyone else watch that video Frog posted? That isn't a neighborhood... if is a FRACKING CITY... once that network is completed, the orders are going to be flying in through ERFWs front door! .... No doubt a homerun... great pun... thanks EC.
Now as to the idea that high oil prices aren't good for ERFW.... get surfing and read dude... when the price per barrel goes high, the oil companies start spending... and spending... they know they can produce the anticipated earnings so they get fat... they spend on new technologies as they expand the drilling numbers...
If housing pricing jumped up and you were building condos, are you going to build your new ones with dial up just because you have dial up in your older condos... the high speed is cheaper and you aren't going to wire it in from day one???? Hello??
This is BOOM TIME... ERFW either hits it big in the next few quarters or game over.
Frog, my kid's gerbil is missing again...
A1
What does it take to turn the lights on and get this ride moving? All the other O&G companies out there are making out big time. {if you bought my GSFVF.PK or UPWRF.PK a few weeks ago, thank me later} Now is the time, while the industry is hot... where is the news?
I have 12-15 cents on my CFP radar screen... the Q of the day ... when will it become obvious that CFP is inevitable? One more contract, two more contracts.... it is all about the numbers.
I have that aha moment on my calendar in the middle of April... one month post EOY numbers... that gives the boys in the front office time to talk about last years results and wow us with something new... anything with $ signs is welcome.
Good fishing tomorrow if the MMs decide to entertain themselves by stirring the pot and watching the weak ones run for the exit doors... get your bait ready... if the MMs go quiet from 12-1:45, that means they are having their "Friday liquid lunch"... hold on to your hats when they return. Sharpen your hooks and get the rigs ready for some bottom fishing.
Have a good weekend and know we are one day closer to the 10k release.
BOL
A1
If everything on this board comes true... the stock will be at a buck and a bunch of people would get arrested for insider trading.
Headlines today in the business section were all about insiders talking ... not good. Not good for honest longs either... I want to make some money here and move on as much as the next guy. I am willing to wait and let the business grow... let's keep the DD on the level here so the company doesn't end up with a really big problem like an investigation...'nuff said?
There are too many sore losers that sold out at huge losses out there; some haunt the boards regularly... it takes one to drop a dime and to cause a problem... even if nothing is proven, an investigation causes us all a big problem... this stock will have a hard enough time getting a proper valuation...
Anyone find a closing date for the Harris deal?... I tried their IR with no luck so far.
A1
Well, well, well... aren't we getting educated... just throwing some humor into the mix here...
Couple of comments about today's posts...
Don't blame the MMs... they are only guilty of dropping the bid because there isn't enough action at the level it was previously trading at... if the stomachs were stronger, people would hold and the dropped bids wouldn't have any affect. MMs are also guilty of painting the tape. Outside of that, they are responding to basic supply and demand. If you want to point the finger, point it at someone who can make a difference.
This Harris Communications thing is very intriguing... I don't see it as an immediate buyout but one that makes a ton of sense in the next few years. The synergy with the various verticals and the patented technology would certainly be of value for Harris... they have the global reach and resources to really do something huge with it. As far as the word "Settlement".... maybe it comes into play when the sale of the division closes... I can't seem to find any info on the closing date... has anyone else. I read the word "soon" in one post, so please be more specific if you know when it is happening.
Education... I agree with the point that it could muddy the waters... but if a network for an EDU already existed for a bank, O&G customer or the emergency response stuff in LA, then I am 100% all for it. Instead of muddying the water, it would help clarify how this whole vertical market concept works. I don't know where the EDU thing came from, but I wonder if the medical division would make more sense to do first? Who is making more money these days, hospitals or schools? Just show me a paying customer and I will be all for it.
About an RS just to get to an exchange, so that more qualified investors can participate... well, $2 gets you to the AMEX, big news could keep you there if the company had not used up all its best news to get the PPS up higher before the RS... and even then, ERF would have limited appeal for various reasons, such as:
1) The CEO is not seasoned and isn't well respected as a CEO... not to say he isn't respected in the wireless field, just not as a business man. I have tested his reputation in the community, and they all say the same thing... "smart guy but not a good fit for Wall Street".
2) Follow for a second here... if the PPS went to 20 cents and did a 10:1 RS and if the company had some more good news to prevent a pull back, post RS... the outstanding would be 48M shares, no problem.... BUT... the authorized would be 97.5M shares... that is a huge red flag to the kind of players that one hopes to attract by being on the exchange.
3) The best market for retail stocks opens when they are sold above $5/share... this is where the biggest group of potential investors play. Under $5 a stock can't be recommended by a broker to his client. (kind of a stupid rule, it should be based on the size of the MC, not the PPS)
Why 500M more shares?... it really, really bugs me. As we all know, he has the voting power to do as he pleases... so why not play the cards a little differently. Why not increase them by 100M shares so that he is compliant and has some extra shares to use... then if a big acquisition comes up or if the PPS were say at 50 cents, he could finance some more growth with another round of 100M shares that he could vote through at that time. Am I way off here? Doesn't that make more sense? What is up with doubling the authorized?
One thing that I am watching closely is the Angus Capital... if DC starts loaning the company more money and stuffing his pockets with more shares for himself at these undervalued prices, I am calling a lawyer. If he wants to loan the company more money, go right ahead at a reasonable interest rate... but it better not be convertible for anything under a buck a share... enough already. 500M more shares... wow.
Looking to flounder here in the upper 1s or low 2s until some news or the 10k comes out. Base camp in the 4s will have to wait a little longer. I really hope that some news sparks this a little before the 10k comes out.
Grab this cash cow by the tail and make it "MMMMOOOO!"
A1
Great point... if some sort of settlement is happening then DC sees it as a long shot, based on Friday's bomb.
Trading today was better than I figured... but we aren't out of the woods yet. With the newly authorized and RS potential risks, the stock price will move up at a discount, if and when real news hits (today wasn't real news... today's PR was an indirect comment from our CEO that translates to "trust me, everything will be ok"... problem is we have heard it for too long without proof.) but I was saying if and when real news hits, the stock will constantly remain under valued... even with earnings, it will never command the proper PE with Friday's bomb factored in. As long as the threat of new issue is there, the risk of dilution is real. I'd hope that the RS will be a non-factor or behind us by the time the company is showing real earnings.
Long term holders have less to worry about,... other than the stock isn't as attractive to more types of investors.
No matter how you slice it, February wasn't anything to cheer about.
ERF has $3M to fund higher margin revenue producing assets... and it sold some WISP biz... January was better as far as its percentage increase.
March is finally here and that means the 10k will be here soon. I don't expect it to be CFP... I am looking for the jump in EB's revenue to be the green light that has been long over do. Total rev for Q3 was $1.5M.... I am hoping for a double here... anything over $3M would be a sight for sore eyes.
Peace.
A1
I have read that someone on the board thinks there are 3 possible listings... is there someone here that can share thoughts on a possible listing other than the AMEX. Some people here agree that the AMEX isn't much better than where we are now. If an RS happened, and the stock were over $2, would ERF be better off on the AMEX vs the BBs... yes but not by much. The point is, stocks on the AMEX aren't regarded too highly these days so why take more of a risk if the advantage isn't that much greater.
If the whole point of an RS is to get bigger players involved, then so be it. Liquidity is certainly a problem. Some might interpret that statement as "A1 needs to get out". My boat is loaded for a long voyage, not a quick hop to make a small percentage. Liquidity or the lack of stifles the PPS. If the mid size players can't feel comfortable coming here and buying $20k - $80k worth of stock looking to make a relatively quick 25%, that hurts all of us. We need liquidity to attract all the different kinds of players in the marketplace. Investors that can sleep well during troubling times are few. I watch my investments that are 1% of my portfolio just as cautiously as I watch ones that are 15% of my portfolio... I want the best for each one. The richest men in the world didn't get rich not watching over their investments. No matter how big or small the investment, every investment needs to be analyzed for risk and reward, all the time.
Most RSs don't come out favorably. So, when the topic was brought to the table a couple of weeks ago, it wasn't welcomed because it should only be considered as a last resort. RS and the big D are taboo, meaning it introduces fear and should be discussed with a low voice and very carefully. If ERF is using its last resorts, that will cause problems holding on to present investors and attracting new ones. Whatever big moves they plan to make had better be done soon. The smoke and mirrors theory looks more and more real with every day that nothing happens, especially after Friday's news.
The battle field is a dangerous place. It isn't for everyone. The bad guys don't take a day off from trying to end your existence. Neither should we. Friendly fire is equally dangerous in the field. Everyone should make sure to confirm who their targets are before they start shooting. Just because someone in the jungle isn't moving in your direction doesn't make them the enemy.
C'est la guerre.
A1
Curious... other than the AMEX, what listing could they get this year with a reverse split?
I was one of the people that said a listing wasn't coming this year because I didn't think they were dumb enough to RS... doing it with a RS isn't the right way to do it... it is very risky... certainly not a slam dunk. I am in favor of slow growth. So the jury is out.
So where are the other 2 listings that you think could happen b/c last time I checked AMEX is the only one that we could get on and the AMEX isn't much different than where we are right now.
A1
Wow... "not worried one bit".
You aren't worried because...
DC hasn't issued any shares yet?
or
b/c you believe your friends wouldn't steer you wrong?
If DC issues those shares, your slice of the pie is cut in half! ... More than half actually. That should be a major concern.
Hypothetically,
If he issued them all Monday morning, your shares aren't worth 2.2 cents... they would be worth 1 cent. ... if your average price was say, 5 cents going into last Friday morning and now you want to break even, do you think it would be easier to go from 2.2 cents to 5 cents or from 1 cent to 10 cents... that is something to worry about.
The RS aspect isn't a big deal if it is done correctly... but does the guy at the helm have a proven track record on matters such as this... nope. He should be cautious of the advice he is given, especially if he only asks himself.
If you aren't worried you either have ice in your veins or know something that we don't. The caution flag should be waving either way.
Everyone should be worried... no investment comes without worry. There is always RISK... Friday's announcement increased our risk big time... no way to sugar coat that move... but the big question still remains, what is the real potential for this company's MC. No RS or increase in authorized affects the real MC once they have finally executed the business plan and are making money... the questions comes down to these:
In a year or two,
1) What kind of earnings can they post
2) What kind of PE ratio can they achieve
3) What kind of growth can they project for the near term
So be worried... but hope that some day this company can:
A) Earn a profit
B) Earn investor confidence
C) Create some liquidity (so investors can get in and out as they please)
Right now, he has done none of these. If dilution is the only way to get some more capital to grow the business, than so be it... but was this the time to double the authorized? If the newly authorized are for acquisitions, the timing was equally bad or worse.
We need a proven CEO with a real board of directors... not puppets. On a scale of one to ten, he gets a 1.5 for his ability to run a company like this. Sure he had the vision to put it all together but he is too blind to see that he'd be a lot further ahead right now, if has asked the right person to finish the job. Can so much arrogance cause this much ignorance? It isn't too late to make the right move. CFP would be the perfect time to change the command.
RS is a short term problem... Increasing the authorized is a warning or potential problem.... increasing the number of issued shares is a permanent problem.
Until A, B and C are done... longs are pretty much screwed. Friday's announcement does nothing for us except set us back in the near term... what it does to the long term??? ... well,well well... we will have to see.
A1
Misery loves company....
So what does it mean? First off it doesn't mean anything to someone that hasn't heard of ERF yet. To us, the longs, this smells of death but that is because we were already frustrated.
Investor confidence has been on the rocks for too long and this is going to make it worse for those who are still underwater.
So what happens next week?
Scenarios... if they don't have a whopper of a PR for Monday morning before the open, DC should be chased across the Mexican border. If they don't have a second PR of importance waiting to be released next week, he should be tarred and furred... and thrown into Froggy's cellar. (you don't want to know what happens down there)
Doubling the authorized isn't cool. Why do it if you aren't going to use it? Since he and his board have so much control, why didn't they add just 100M shares and then add more later, if they need it. It makes one wonder about his abilities... or lack there of.
So what does he need it for, is he going to sell it all to Angus (himself)? He couldn't... he'd be dragged into court really quickly, if he did that.
And what about the RS... 2:1 to 500:1 ... Frog made some really good points about the advantage of getting listed and how a multi-dollar stock is MUCH more attractive to a larger group of potential investors.
Let's try to figure out what he is doing... if he wants to get the price up to 10 cents and do a 20:1 split, it would only work if he has the news/contracts to lift it up to 10 cents and... AND... just as importantly, he would have to have a really big piece of news to reveal when the RS is complete so that the PPS would climb up into an even higher level and base itself there. {otherwise what happens after the RS, the PPS drifts back to familiar levels, resulting is a seriously eroded MC... and we would end up screwed }
I'd really like to see a 2:1 when the PPS hits $1.00 but with moves like today's, its gonna take a while.
At CFP, I have always figured we would be at 18-24 cents... now I have to lower that to 12 to 18 cents. That range is assuming no more contract type news... anything positive would just help the cause at this point. So do they have a CFP announcement and one good contract to send it to 25 cents... do a 4:1 and then hit us with a killer contract that sends it to $3.00... I hope so.
Listen... authorized just means he has the ability to issue more... it doesn't mean he has to. I am all in favor of acquisitions when the PPS gets higher... but would it have been better to get the stock up to a higher level, RS, move the stock up a little more AND THEN add more authorized... I don't know.
DC is on very thin ice here... he had best watch his every step b/c every major long is going to be watching and listening with heightened unease.
It is possible to have a happy ending after a scary chapter... let's wait and see what comes next before we draw more conclusions.
A1
Frustrated is the word... not desperate. The proof in that will be when it gets up to 10 cents and 20 cents, I will still be sitting on my boat load of shares. I am not in this for a double just to run out the door to the next new new thing... I am here for the big bucks and that will require a lot of time and patience.
My issue is the fact that ERF has $3M in the bank to spend on revenue producing CAPEX projects and that CFP is sneaking up on us and NO ONE OUT THEIR CARES... (had to shout that to make myself feel better)... We need news, more people doing some DD and we need newbies. We don't get to $2 overnight. Like climbing Everest, we are need to move a little higher, get acclimated, move a little higher again and wait while we get acclimated again. Move up, set up base, move up, set up another base over and over. There is no running up Everest.
We have been in the twos long enough... the next pressure with volume behind it should push to the 4s camp... then the high 6s and then double digits. If we stay at one camp too long, it really is just a waste of time.
Time to pack up camp and move it.
A1... the night talker.
I am on the night shift now...
Looks like we might have another week with no news and non-eventful February will be in the books soon... Is March going to be the big month? One of these days, someone has to get it right. I didn't predict Feb as the big month... but whoever did, messed that one up.
Oil prices the leading news stories... high oil prices are better for ERFW. Line me up some contracts boys... the money in the oil patch is flowing ... especially, States side.
See you tomorrow night.
A1