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dougSF30, chipguy is just grasping at straws because he can't deal with all the recent failures at Intel. The scrapping of Tejas, the failure of Itanium to really carve out any niche which looks even less likely going forward. The fact that Prescott is red hot piece of mediocrity which is still not readily available at speeds over 3G. What a paper launch that was! Intel can't compete with AMD64 on 32 bit applications let alone 64 bit applications. the gap will likely widen on 64 bit applications because Intel is probably 2 years behing on X86-64. Those 64 bit Xeons due out in August will likely not perform very well on 64 bit applications. Intel is just trying to save face because they screwed up badly with Itanium and were slow with Yamhill.
Tenchu enjoy your losses on INTC. I kept mt long position but I play the options game in the short term. The stock bounced off 13.98 today, which is where it closed on 12/17/03 and 2/23/04. After those lows the stock went up to 17.38 close on 1/20/04, and 17.45 on 4/2/04. You don't pay very good attention but AMD stock makes decent percentage moves in the short term. What you also fail to realize is this is the period that the SOX usually trades down. I don't expect AMD to start breaking out to the upside till at least late June/ early July. But when it does look for AMD to move up into the low 30's by November, which will probably be at or above Intel's stock price. You must face the facts that Intel is struggling with Prescott and is once again King of the Paper Launches. AMD is kicking Intel around like theres no tomorrow, which is becoming more and more eveident as Intel fails to deliver on Prescott. Cha-Ching.
Tenchu you should pay attention better
AMD sells off on good news almost every time. Now repeat after me, "Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact". My long position is unchanged. You are really naive when it comes to investing because FYI, options are short term bets, and mine made me a nice profit. How does it feel with Intel hitting new lows while AMD is up on the year? I enjoy watching the Intel Fan boys moan and complain and spread FUD which nobody but they believe. CHa-ching
STenchu YTD AMD +1.10 INTC -5.42 gotta love it.
Your beloved INTC is hitting new 52 week lows while AMD is still up over a buck. Enjoy thesour grapes because Intel has major problems with Prescott. It's too hot, underperforms it's predecessor, and it's still hardly available, especially above 3G. AMD dominates the high end in desktop and is taking away business from Intel in the server arena. Let's also not forget Intel missed expectations, and revenue and income was down from Q403 for Intel, while AMD was up on both. It's just these inept analysts talking AMD down that is happening today. I sold my call options yesterday so CHa-ching to you.
Hey Tenchu how are those sour grapes buddy?
Cha-ching.
AMD going up
Intel going down
Gotta love it.
Tenchu my calls are in the money. My April 15 Calls are worth 2.00 now, and I paid .45, and my July 15 Calls are worth 2.75, and I paid 1.10 for them. Enjoy your Intel stock.
Q104 AMD 16.23 +1.33(+8.93%) INTC 27.20 -4.85(-15.13%)
Today AMD 16.75 +.52 INTC 27.37 +.17, AMD keeps creeping up on Intel, cha-ching. guess Intel shouldn't have wasted all that money on Itanium, and now they are stuck scrambling to catch up with AMD. 2004, the year of AMD, cha-ching.
Where's Prescott, frying some motherboard?
These little buggers are hot as hell and underperform like you wouldn't believe. Isn't it smart that Intel finally admitted defeat and jumped on the AMD x86-64 bandwagon. I'm sure Intel's version won't be as good as AMD's, but thats nothing new. Won't be to long before Itanium slips into obscurity. AMD stock is going to keep creeping up on Intel because Intel will not be able to effectively compete with AMD in the server arena, or desktop for the rest of this year and into next. Look for AMD to pass Intel on price in the September-October timeframe. Cha-ching.
Elmer nice, too bad it's not my post. I have never posted at raging bull so your attack is nothing but that. I am forwarding your email to the appropriate individuals. Have a nice day.
Tenchu, don't cry over your Intel losses, there is still plenty of time to join in the run up in price of AMD. I see AMD is up yet abain and Intel is down, cha-ching.
YTD AMD +7.58% INTC -14.41% get used to it. AMD is rubbing Intel's face in it as Intel is forced to follow AMD on 64 bits, but their extended pipeline on Prescott makes it nothing but a Hotttttt Dog. AMD continues taking sever chip business away from Intel. Cha-ching.
Tenchu, I bought my AMD shares at $6.50 last year so I have seen huge gains. I love how you Intel fanboys cry about Intel stock continuing to fall while AMD stock rises.
Tenchu can you read, YTD means Year to date. Intel has had up days before but the bottom line is they are still tanked on the year. While AMD built support at $14, intel has continued to fall, other than today. Investing in Intel this year has lost you money while Investing In AMD has made money, why, because AMD has better chips than Intel and Intel has badly screwed up on Prescott, and thier hopes that people wouldn't jump on board AMD64. Well Intel gambled and lost and now it is evident. AMD is turning the screws on Intel in the server arena. It's time for AMD to make Intel bleed and I am enjoying it. It will be funny when AMD'd stock price passes Intels later this year, by then the Intel faithful won't be showing their faces on any message boards. Cha-ching.
YTD AMD 15.87 +.97(+6.51%) INTC 27.79 -4.26 (-13.29%)
Will Intel be able to get it's head back above water this year?
Maybe, but by that time AMD will have doubled, crushing the Intel fanboys spirits. Intel is ready to can P4 because it's not up to snuff with AMD. Little old AMD is putting the boots to Intel and Intel can do nothing. It's great counting my gains on AMD, cha-ching.
Can Prescott ramp up no, down yes, to lower speeds.
This chip is just too hot and is going to get taken to the woodshed by Opteron. AMD is kicking Intel's brains in on bothe the server and desktop front. AMD is also squeezing Intel any time they introduce a new faster chip since AMD is the performance king. Looks like the analysts are going to have to significantly upgrade their AMD earnings expectations, and lower their Intel expectations. Cha-ching.
Tenchu looks like I'm right AMD up INTC down, no change in sight. AMD is kicking Intel's butt with Opteron and A64, and I heard Intel is 18 months behind AMD on 64bit and I heard Dell offering AMD Processor in Box. DELL has since pulled the add but AMD is gaining momentum and there is nothing the Intel faithful can do about it. I took you off ignore because there were 5 individauls who were bigger clowns than you.
YTD AMD 15.86 +.96(6.44%) INTC 27.41 -4.64(14.48%)
AMD split in 2000 and will be splitting again in the next few years as it's price soars above INTC. I'm glad I'm not losing money on Intel. Cha-ching.
It will, much to the sadness of Intel Fanboys like yourself. And chances are this time it will stay above INTC until AMD splits again. So enjoy your mounting losses in Intel, while I count my profits, YTD: AMD +2.3% INTC -17.3% cha-ching.
tenchu, don't cry over your INTC losses, I know I'm not crying about your losses, cha-ching.
fingolfen I will remind you when AMD passes INTC, if you are still here, cha-ching.
YTD AMD 15.25 +.35(+2.3%) INTC 26.49 -5.56(-17.3%)
INTC is forced having to copy the integrated memory controller of AMD64, and still no higher speed Prescotts in sight. Not that it matters since AMD's A64's mutilate Prescott. I am sticking with my prediction that AMD passes INTC in stock price in Q3 or Q4. It's nice to see INTC get what it deserves. cha-ching.
tecate Ex-INTC need not apply at AMD. Especially the designers of Itanium. Hey INTC is only down around 17% so far this year while AMD is up 3%. cha-ching
bye bye elmer, sell that INTC stock soon EOM
Congrats INTC shorts and AMD longs, another winning day
Semi, can't explain why AMD is outperforming INTC by a mile this year with AMD up +3% and INTC down 15%. Oh yeah AMD was up quite a bit more than INTC last year also. I will remid you later this year when AMD passes INTC on price. Intel has no short term answer for AMD64 which beats INTC senseless on 32 bit applications. Say goodbye to more server revenues at Intel. AMD is going to boost it's bottom line significantly in the server arena while INTC tries to fix that joke named Prescott. Cha-ching.
I heard Intel's AMD64 is swamped by thermal issues like Prescott. AMD is going to continue eating Intel's lunch for the foreseeable future. And the bottom line that the Intel fans forget is that AMD already outperforms INTC on 32 bit applications, why is it going to be any different on 64 bit applications. INTC is not as far along, plus no on chip memory controller or hypertransport. The perfromance margin AMD has over Intel on 64bit applications is going to be even larger than on 32 bit applications. AMD has taken INTC to the woodshed, and if AMD is using IBM's Fab in NY to make more 64bit chips, Intel fans should be very scared, because it will put further pressure on INTC ASP's. It's nice to see INTC get what they deserve.
YTD AMD 15.37 +.47(+3.2%) INTC 27.25 -4.80(-15%)
Looks like AMD is holding up as a better investment again this year. Look for AMD to rise above INTC in Q3 or Q4 as AMD earnings soar while INTC stagnates.
<YTD AMD +.7% Intel -9%> looks like investors are waking up. Just wait till AMD blows away earnings estimates for Q1, while Intel will be likely only meet expectations. AMD say hello to the 20's and close the gap on stock price with Intel. Watch AMD's Opteron beat Xeon like a red headed stepchild in benchmark after benchmark, all the while Itanium sinks into obscurity. Cha-ching.
Intel Xeon no match for Opteron for at least 12 to 18 months. And Itanium is likely to die a slow and painful death as Intel flushes more money down thath worthless cause. The only benchmarks even Itanium can beat AMD at are benchmarks created by companies they fund like Bapco. In real world applications AMD's Opteron mops the floor with evereything Intel has to offer. Check out the HP Proliant server offering where HP explains how AMD's 2.2G Opteron crushes the 3.2G Xeon. looks like Intel is getting whipped pretty soundly. Hey maybe Intel can pay the Aberdeen group to write another paper for Intel, this time on how great Xeon performs and how it is up to the task of challenging Opteron, ha ha ha ha ha. CHa-CHing.
YTD AMD +1% INTC -8%: 2 stocks going opposite directions. Well the HP endorsement of AMD through it's Opteron/Xeon comparison which shows AMD mopping the floor with Intel by 44% in a 1U Server, and 57% in a 2U Server. Intel has definite problems on it's hands as AMD is going to eat Intel's lunch on this one since Intel will not have anything close to competitive with Opteron for at least 12 to 18 months.
<YTD AMD +1% INTC -8%> two stocks going opposite directions. It will be interesting to see in what month AMD passes Intel in stock price. It is most likely to happen in October or November, but it is going to happen. HP put out that wonderful piece of benchmarking comparing 2.2G Opteron vs 3.2G Xeon, and Opteron mops the floor with Xeon, and scales much better. AMD is starting to eat Intel's lunch and the server dollars are leaving Intel and heading to AMD. Intel has no answer in the short term for AMD, heck they can't even get their 90nm process straight. And AMD is likely getting help from IBM on 90nm, so AMD will likely make a smoother transition than Intel to 90nm. cha-ching.
dougSF30 of course Intel will give away 150K Itaniums this year, how many are actually paid for is something completely different. Itanium will be lucky to remain as a niche product selling less than 100K chips per year. Not much considering the billions they put into it over the years.
chipguy, Itanium is going nowhere fast and your hoping that it will grow significantly shows that you know not what you are talking about. Intel's X86-64 announcement is going to relegate Itanium to Big tin at best, forget about any serious business in workstations because it's just not cost effective.
doudgSF30 the best will be continuing to watch AMD outperform Intel the rest of this year. Remember that the $4000 exemption on the Alternative Minimum Tax is scheduled to expire at the end of this year. For that reason alone I am looking for AMD to peak this year. Also if AMD closes above $30 the majority of the time next January, AMD could convert the first of the last 2 convertible bond issues. This will add a little more than 20 million shares to the number outstanding. This will no doubt knock the price back if they exercise the right to convert it in early Feb 05. I have no doubt they will convert that debt to equity since the exchange price is in the 20's, and it won't dilute as bad as the second convertible debt offering would.
Keith, They omit the 848 aka 2200 Opteron on the 4 way systems. That's where AMD is the strongest because of how Opteron scales. All in all it's just more Intel nonsense. AMD's is taking chunks of business away from Intel, and there is nothing Intel can do but watch and try to spin things. That news headline about the buffer overrun protection was nice. I guess thta;'s just another area Intel must follow AMD, the new technology leader.
sgolds my problem with the UBS analysis is that they claim Intel is simply going to use it's manufacturing prowess to put pressure on AMD. That idea is full of holes. Just because you have 90nm doesn't mean a thing if you can't produce chips with decent thermals or performance. The analysts assume Intel is smooth sailing and that has been anything but the case with Prescott, which was very late, underperforms, and which through the C stepping runs way too hot. This idea that Intel is going to offer 64 bit Xeons and suddenly Intel has the advantage is also laughable. We already know AMD's A64 chips beat Intel chips on the majority of benchmarks in the desktop space. In the Server space Opteron mops the floor with Xeon on 32 bit applications. Are these analysts really naive enough to think that come June Intel is going to have a 64 bit Xeon chip that is up to snuff with Opteron. Anyone even somewhat knowledgeable like myself knows Intel's first chips with 64 bit extensions are not going to give much competition to Opteron. Intel simply has not put in the work yet necessary to catch up. Yamhill was a side project while AMD's Hammer project was the main focus. In my book Intel will take 12 to 18 months to really have a chance of catching up with Opteron. Until then AMD is going to gain business. And if Intel rushes it's 64 bit Xeon's out and there is a glitch, Intel will do themselves more harm than good. Another point that the analyst seem to forget is that performance controls pricing. As long as AMD has the best performing chips, They will be able to sell more to the high end in both desktop and servers. the only time Intel can really turn the screws is when they have a performance lead. Currently AMD is on top in performance, and I don't see that changing till at least next year. As far as UBS comments on Flash, they show how ignorant they are saying 90nm Flash will allow them to squeeze AMD. AMD sells more NOR Flash than Intel through Spansion. For either comapny to be squeezed in Flash, prices would have to be going down. And from what I have seen prices are moving up strongly as shown by Buggi's graphs on Flash which he posted late last week. So my bottom line is that UBS and most of these other analysts are either stupid, or are telling lies hoping to knock the stock down. Firms have been known to do that as has been shown by Merrill Lynches downgrades coinciding with their Funds buying AMD. From what I have seen my current estimate for AMD in Q104 is .15 to .17 EPS, with revenues overall up 5% from Q403. One other side note I would like to hear your opinion on is this talk about Intel tripling Flash capacity. In my mind this is beyond stupid. If Intel and many other companies do this they will only further commoditize Flash Pricing, and nobody will make any money, plus there will be far too much capacity. This in my book is going to have a negative affect on all companies dealing with Flash after the current upcycle in Flash ends. I think Flash demand/pricing will peak out late this year, and when more capacity comes on line it will simply send the Flash memory business down again. I'm guessing that the Microprocessor business will probably peak out some time inthe first half of 05. What are your thoughts? Happy trading and thanks for your input.
smooth, not quite, I despise intel and the only way I will ever hold it is as a short. EOM
Excellent Point Darbes
I was suprised too looking at the Circuit City and Best Buy Circulars in the Sunday Paper. Those falling prices are nothing out of the ordinary. Prices always fall over time as fasetr chips become available. The sweet spot has moved up to between XP2800+ and XP3000+, plus the volume of A64's being sold is going up and that too will raise ASP's. UBS is full of it. Let's not foget FX-53 will be coming out soon too further solidify AMD's position as performance leader.