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How Tiny Swiss Cellphone Chips Helped Track Global Terror Web
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/04/international/europe/04PHON.html
By DON VAN NATTA Jr. and DESMOND BUTLER
ONDON, March 2 — The terrorism investigation code-named Mont Blanc began almost by accident in April 2002, when authorities intercepted a cellphone call that lasted less than a minute and involved not a single word of conversation.
Investigators, suspicious that the call was a signal between terrorists, followed the trail first to one terror suspect, then to others, and eventually to terror cells on three continents.
What tied them together was a computer chip smaller than a fingernail. But before the investigation wound down in recent weeks, its global net caught dozens of suspected Qaeda members and disrupted at least three planned attacks in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, according to counterterrorism and intelligence officials in Europe and the United States.
The investigation helped narrow the search for one of the most wanted men in the world, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, who is accused of being the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks, according to three intelligence officials based in Europe. American authorities arrested Mr. Mohammed in Pakistan last March.
For two years, investigators now say, they were able to track the conversations and movements of several Qaeda leaders and dozens of operatives after determining that the suspects favored a particular brand of cellphone chip. The chips carry prepaid minutes and allow phone use around the world.
Investigators said they believed that the chips, made by Swisscom of Switzerland, were popular with terrorists because they could buy the chips without giving their names.
"They thought these phones protected their anonymity, but they didn't," said a senior intelligence official based in Europe. Even without personal information, the authorities were able to conduct routine monitoring of phone conversations.
A half dozen senior officials in the United States and Europe agreed to talk in detail about the previously undisclosed investigation because, they said, it was completed. They also said they had strong indications that terror suspects, alert to the phones' vulnerability, had largely abandoned them for important communications and instead were using e-mail, Internet phone calls and hand-delivered messages.
"This was one of the most effective tools we had to locate Al Qaeda," said a senior counterterrorism official in Europe. "The perception of anonymity may have lulled them into a false sense of security. We now believe that Al Qaeda has figured out that we were monitoring them through these phones."
The officials called the operation one of the most successful investigations since Sept. 11, 2001, and an example of unusual cooperation between agencies in different countries. Led by the Swiss, the investigation involved agents from more than a dozen countries, including the United States, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Britain and Italy.
Cellphones have played a major role in the constant jousting between terrorists and intelligence agencies. In their requests for more investigative powers, Attorney General John Ashcroft and other officials have repeatedly cited the importance of monitoring portable phones. Each success by investigators seems to drive terrorists either to more advanced — or to more primitive — communications.
During the American bombing of Tora Bora in Afghanistan in December 2001, American authorities reported hearing Osama bin Laden speaking to his associates on a satellite phone. Since then, Mr. bin Laden has communicated with handwritten messages delivered by trusted couriers, officials said.
In 2002 the German authorities broke up a cell after monitoring calls by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who has been linked by some top American officials to Al Qaeda, in which he could be heard ordering attacks on Jewish targets in Germany. Since then, investigators say, Mr. Zarqawi has been more cautious.
"If you beat terrorists over the head enough, they learn," said Col. Nick Pratt, a counterterrorism expert and professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. "They are smart."
Officials say that on the rare occasion when operatives still use mobile phones, they keep the calls brief and use code words.
"They know we are on to them and they keep evolving and using new methods, and we keep finding ways to make life miserable for them," said a senior Saudi official. "In many ways, it's like a cat-and-mouse game."
Some Qaeda lieutenants used cellphones only to arrange a conversation on a more secure telephone. It was one such brief cellphone call that set off the Mont Blanc investigation.
The call was placed on April 11, 2002, by Christian Ganczarski, a 36-year-old Polish-born German Muslim whom the German authorities suspected was a member of Al Qaeda. From Germany, Mr. Ganczarski called Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, said to be Al Qaeda's military commander, who was running operations at the time from a safe house in Karachi, Pakistan, according to two officials involved in the investigation.
The two men did not speak during the call, counterterrorism officials said. Instead, the call was intended to alert Mr. Mohammed of a Qaeda suicide bombing mission at a synagogue in Tunisia, which took place that day, according to two senior officials. The attack killed 21 people, mostly German tourists.
Through electronic surveillance, the German authorities traced the call to Mr. Mohammed's Swisscom cellphone, but at first they did not know it belonged to him. Two weeks after the Tunisian bombing, the German police searched Mr. Ganczarski's house and found a log of his many numbers, including one in Pakistan that was eventually traced to Mr. Mohammed. The German police had been monitoring Mr. Ganczarski because he had been seen in the company of militants at a mosque in Duisburg, and last June the French police arrested him in Paris.
Mr. Mohammed's cellphone number, and many others, were given to the Swiss authorities for further investigation. By checking Swisscom's records, Swiss officials discovered that many other Qaeda suspects used the Swisscom chips, known as Subscriber Identity Module cards, which allow phones to connect to cellular networks.
For months the Swiss, working closely with counterparts in the United States and Pakistan, used this information in an effort to track Mr. Mohammed's movements inside Pakistan. By monitoring the cellphone traffic, they were able to get a fix on Mr. Mohammed, but the investigators did not know his specific location, officials said.
Once Swiss agents had established that Mr. Mohammed was in Karachi, the American and Pakistani security services took over the hunt with the aid of technology at the United States National Security Agency, said two senior European intelligence officials. But it took months for them to actually find Mr. Mohammed "because he wasn't always using that phone," an official said. "He had many, many other phones."
Mr. Mohammed was a victim of his own sloppiness, said a senior European intelligence official. He was meticulous about changing cellphones, but apparently he kept using the same SIM card.
In the end, the authorities were led directly to Mr. Mohammed by a C.I.A. spy, the director of central intelligence, George J. Tenet, said in a speech last month. A senior American intelligence official said this week that the capture of Mr. Mohammed "was entirely the result of excellent human operations."
When Swiss and other European officials heard that American agents had captured Mr. Mohammed last March, "we opened a big bottle of Champagne," a senior intelligence official said.
Among Mr. Mohammed's belongings, the authorities seized computers, cellphones and a personal phone book that contained hundreds of numbers. Tracing those numbers led investigators to as many as 6,000 phone numbers, which amounted to a virtual road map of Al Qaeda's operations, officials said.
The authorities noticed that many of Mr. Mohammed's communications were with operatives in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Last April, using the phone numbers, officials in Jakarta broke up a terror cell connected to Mr. Mohammed, officials said.
After the suicide bombings of three housing compounds in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 12, the Saudi authorities used the phone numbers to track down two "live sleeper cells." Some members were killed in shootouts with the authorities; others were arrested.
Meanwhile, the Swiss had used Mr. Mohammed's phone list to begin monitoring the communications and activities of nearly two dozen of his associates. "Huge resources were devoted to this," a senior official said. "Many countries were constantly doing surveillance, monitoring the chatter."
Investigators were particularly alarmed by one call they overheard last June. The message: "The big guy is coming. He will be here soon."
An official familiar with the calls said, "We did not know who he was, but there was a lot of chatter." Whoever "the big guy" was, the authorities had his number. A Swisscom chip was in the phone.
"Then we waited and waited, and we were increasingly anxious and worried because we didn't know who it was or what he had intended to do," an official said.
But in July, the man believed to be "the big guy," Abdullah Oweis, who was born in Saudi Arabia, was arrested in Qatar. "He is one of those people able to move within Western societies and to help the mujahedeen, who have lesser experience," an official said. "He was at the very center of the Al Qaeda hierarchy. He was a major facilitator."
In January, the operation led to the arrests of eight people accused of being members of a Qaeda logistical cell in Switzerland. Some are suspected of helping with the suicide bombings of the housing compounds in Riyadh, which killed 35 people, including 8 Americans.
Later, European authorities discovered that Mr. Mohammed had contacted a company in Geneva that sells Swisscom phone cards. Investigators said he ordered the cards in bulk.
The Mont Blanc inquiry has wound down, although investigators are still monitoring the communications of a few people. Christian Neuhaus, a spokesman for Swisscom, confirmed that the company had cooperated with the inquiry, but declined to comment.
Last year, Switzerland's legislature passed a law making it illegal to purchase cellphone chips without providing personal information, following testimony from a Swiss federal prosecutor, Claude Nicati, that the Swisscom cards had become popular with Qaeda operatives. The law goes into effect on July 1.
One senior official said the authorities were grateful that Qaeda members were so loyal to Swisscom.
Another official agreed: "They'd switch phones but use the same cards. The people were stupid enough to use the same cards all of the time. It was a very good thing for us."
===
Comment: yes, I know this is peripheral, but though the folks here would be interested. I didn't see anything that would violate technology as we know it, unlike so many other articles.
What they had here was a GSM phone with a new SIM.
Upbeat CNBC report. Kept repeating 2.5 year high.
Tim Long of Banc of America Securities closed with [long term] "This will be the highest growth company in the universe."
Both analysts agreed that QCOM is the best buy in the mobile phone market, the question being on whether this is the best point to buy, and uncertainty over the next two quarters.
Segment started with Jim Goldman (CNBC) giving a summary of the earnings update.
Next, Sam May of Piper Jaffrey stating QCOM is always consistent in its numbers, and there is good opportunity for the upside. The big suprise being the early date of the preannouncement. [note: this is consistent for QCOM, usually 20-25 of the second month]
Greg Teets, AG Edwards went into a litany of potential segment problems, including QCOM having problems getting enough chips to customers [always too much inventory, or not enough?], difficulties bringing new products online, etc.
Concluded with the 2 analysts, Long (Buy), and Christin Armacost of SG Cowan (Market Perform). Both stressed stength of China and India, and replacemetns in the USA. Long added Japan and 3G in Europe meaning a market share gain for QCOM
Armacost stated concerns of seasonality and the 2nd half of the year. Long talked about how this is both a semiconductor and royalty company.
Maria B asked if there were any better buys long term in the sector. Both said no, QCOM is it. [This has me worried, both analysts agreeing.]
==========
Wonder what would have happened today if the market had gone up too?
RE: Friday's options - Mindy
There is a thread on this over at SI - Coming into Buy Range
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19838441
Also, for those watching dates, CTIA Wireless 2004 will be March 22-24. I expect some more major announcements regarding products then.
Heads UP - QCOM discussion on CNBC 3-4 PM EST
Sometime during the "Closing Bell," CNBC will have a session, "Qualcomm - Higher or Lower" or some such.
Not on the website yet, just heard them mention it. Wonder what analysts they pull out. Anyone want to take bets on someone from Banc of America?
re: QUALCOMM Announces Delivery of CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Software Enhancements
In today's market, what does this announcement mean today? This seems to read that tiered services are a capability, but as far as I know there is no need for that yet in any of the EV-DO markets today.
On the other hand, good to see that the issue of capacity is being addressed before it becomes a problem.
Personal experience in European cities with GSM is that you are lucky to get a voice call out during rush hour in the afternoon - "all circuits are busy," so there probably will be a need for this in the future.
RE: W$J - Verizon Wireless to Invest $1 Billion (on EV-DO)
Anyone else note the FUD at the end of the article?
"The fastest wide-area nationwide network is currently offered by AT&T Wireless Services Inc., which unveiled a technology in November called EDGE, enabling speeds about twice as fast as dial-up. That has put its network ahead of both Verizon Wireless and Sprint Corp.'s Sprint PCS, which uses the same technology as Verizon Wireless.
Verizon Wireless is betting that the deployment of a wireless broadband network -- scheduled to be available in six major U.S. cities by the middle of this year -- will give it a competitive advantage. However, it still remains unclear how much of a demand there is for such services. Only 565,000 cards that let laptops access wireless data were sold in the U.S. last year, according to ABI Research."
For the first paragraph, both Verizon and Sprint have 1xRTT nationwide networks. Over twice as fast as a dialup too! Sloppy reporting. Think they believed AT&T Wireless' press releases.
And the next paragraph has quesionable reasoning. Sort of like saying circa 2000 that demand for DVD Players is unknown because sales of VCRs are down. I do agree though that demand is unclear, and will depend heavily on pricing.
Mythbusters - Cell Phone Destroys Gas Station
"MythBusters test whether or not using a cell phone at a gas station can cause the pump to explode."
=================================
Show on the US Discovery Channel next week.
Schedule is here:
http://dsc.discovery.com/schedule/series.jsp?series=24344&gid=11031&channel=DSC
I think we all know the answer. The American Petroleum Institute is promoting a lie as a CYA.
Mobile fertile for sex, gambling
By Frank Barnako, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:32 AM ET Dec. 2, 2003
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Using your cell phone to play the lottery and browse pornography could be a market worth billions of dollars in two years, according to Juniper Research.
But the business will develop only if regulators and mobile communications companies do the right things, the European provider of business intelligence cautioned.
"Safety, security and child protection must be the No. 1 priority," said Paul Skeldon, senior analyst and mobile entertainment specialist. Blocking spam is also critical as is the development of "trustworthy and reliable payment systems" he said.
Skeldon estimated mobile adult content sales could total $791 million in 2006, with more than half coming from video. But the big payoff will be in gambling services. That's an almost $6 billion market, with lotteries and competitions worth $2.8 billion and wagering adding another $2 billion.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3B3BFCC9-4126-45FA-8DE8-30F75474270C%7D&siteid...
===
Comment: The new "kiler app" for 3G?
NYT: New Rules, and Maybe Profits, in Cellphones
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/30/business/yourmoney/30insi.html?ei=5062&en=1c33860298a15c11&...
MARKET INSIGHT
New Rules, and Maybe Profits, in Cellphones
By KENNETH N. GILPIN
Published: November 30, 2003
THE switch is on.
Under rules that went into effect last week, customers who change cellphone companies can keep their numbers. The change has already prompted a surge of traffic in cellphone stores around the country. Even before the rule change, shares of cellphone makers had generally gone up significantly this year.
Brian T. Modoff, senior wireless equipment analyst at Deutsche Bank, talked last week about the industry and how to invest in it. Following are excerpts from the conversation:
Q. What effect do you expect the rule change will have on the cellphone market?
A. The changes could spark more unit sales, because when people change carriers, they frequently need a new phone.
And compared to Europe, the American market is underpenetrated. Cellphone use in this country is a little over 50 percent, compared with 80 percent in Europe.
The U.S. market represents about 15 percent of industry revenues. Asia is the most important region. About 40 percent of sales come from there. Then comes Europe, with about 25 percent. Africa and Latin America each represent about 10 percent of sales.
A pickup in U.S. sales would be nice, but the bottom line is that there are still too many players and the pricing environment is still challenging.
Q. How many companies are in this business?
A. The global players are Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, Siemens, LG Electronics and Sony Ericsson. That's it. Collectively they have about 85 percent of the market.
There are a lot of regional companies because the barriers to entry are pretty low. You still need to have some technical know-how, but your average consumer electronics company is capable of building phones.
To give an example, Chinese cellphone makers have over 40 percent of the domestic market now. That is double what it was 18 months ago. In China alone, there are 47 brands of phones and more than 800 models. Clearly, that is a market begging for consolidation.
Q. What kind of pricing pressure do cellphone makers face?
A. Phones are getting cheaper and cheaper.
In China, there is a big gray market for used phones, which you can buy for $20. You can get a local phone for around $50. A year and a half ago, you couldn't find a phone there below $100. You are continuing to see prices come down, especially on the low end.
Q. Which cellphone makers are growing fastest?
A. Samsung is very aggressive in the market, and there is a very good chance that by next year they will be bigger than Motorola. LG Electronics, another Korean company, is rapidly rising, too. They are going to continue to pick up share.
So, you could see players like Alcatel and others in Europe decide this business is just too tough.
Q. Do you think that Motorola will leave the handset business?
A. The company needs to restructure itself, and it won't be easy.
To give you an example, Nokia has $33 billion in revenues and about 30,000 employees. Its executives come in every day thinking about handsets and infrastructure.
Motorola has $25 billion in revenues and 90,000 employees. Their management comes in each day and thinks about 12 different markets, from handsets to cable. They have to deal with multiple industries, multiple end-markets and multiple competitors. They need to look at what they are doing and at what is worth doing.
Handsets represent more than 50 percent of their revenues, but at this point I would question if handsets are a good business. I don't know if Motorola would sell it. But it is worth more now than it will be in a year or two.
Q. Do you like any of the stocks in this group?
A. You can't expect to buy the group and do well. This year has been the exception to the rule, because the worst companies I follow, in terms of fundamentals, have done the best.
My view of the wireless space now is that it is a lot like the telecom space in 1993. Overall growth for the industry will be in line with nominal gross domestic product. But you can make selective investments that will do well.
Qualcomm is our favorite large-cap name, but we think we can buy the stock at a cheaper price.
C.D.M.A. and W.C.D.M.A. are technologies that will become a larger piece of the wireless industry. This is Qualcomm's technology. There is a risk that Nokia will aggressively go after market share in C.D.M.A. next year, but we think W.C.D.M.A. will kick in in 2005 in terms of volumes.
We also like Nokia, which is the strongest company financially but whose stock has done the worst so far this year. It is the cheapest large-capitalization name in my group. The price point and their cash flow make the stock attractive.
Irwin Jacobs will be on CNBC 11:30-12:00 EST <EOM>
On the "conservative guidance," I suspect that the earnings report has to be mostly completed well in advance, in order to meet SEC compliance rules. This event is a legal event, and has to meet all the bells and whistles, including full legal review (Sarbanes-Oxley, etc, get it wrong and you risk jail). Bottom line is that it is a legal document that is time late, as of Sep 30. The last 5 weeks are not relevant (such as the court decisions in India).
The London Analysts Meeting next week though, is not a legally binding announcement, and so can be more real time. It only has to provide equal access (why it is broadcast).
Qualcomm Quarterly Profit Jumps 53 Pct
Wednesday November 5, 5:55 pm ET
By Yukari Iwatani
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Qualcomm Inc. (NasdaqNM:QCOM - News) on Wednesday posted a 53 percent increase in fiscal fourth-quarter profit, helped by a tax benefit in its investment unit and strong demand for its wireless chips that allow users to surf the Web at high speeds.
The company, which sells mobile phone chips and licenses wireless technology, also forecast fiscal first-quarter earnings higher than analysts' estimates on slightly stronger than expected chip shipments.
Qualcomm owns most of the patents to CDMA, or Code Division Multiple Access, the world's second-most widely used wireless technology standard. CDMA phones are used by more than 164 million subscribers in countries such as the United States, Korea, China, India and Japan.
Qualcomm has outperformed other telecoms equipment companies by licensing its technology and supplying about 90 percent of the chips for CDMA phones.
The company, which receives royalties based on a percentage of the sale price of every CDMA phone sold, had said in September it was seeing an increase in the average selling price of CDMA phones compared with the previous quarter.
Ed Snyder, principal at independent research firm Charter Research, said Qualcomm was also likely to be benefiting from strong demand in India where Reliance Infocomm, a unit of the powerful Reliance (Bombay:RELI.BO - News) group, recently started operating a CDMA network.
"The second shoe (in Asia) is dropping now," he said.
San Diego-based Qualcomm reported a net profit of $291 million, or 35 cents a diluted share, for its fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 28, compared with $190 million, or 23 cents a share, a year ago.
Net profit was significantly higher than its forecast of 19 cents to 21 cents because its tax rate dropped to 6 percent from the usual 30 percent range as a result of losses related to Brazilian investments and operations, the company said.
Excluding investments and amortization of goodwill, the company posted a profit of 29 cents, compared with 31 cents a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was $908.8 million, compared with $873.9 million a year ago. Excluding its strategic investment unit, revenue was $870.4 million.
The company had expected to earn 27 cents to 29 cents a share, excluding investments, on revenue growth of 2 percent to 6 percent.
Still, Shawn Campbell, principal with Campbell Asset Management, took a cautious view.
"There was a lot of noise earlier this year about other companies entering the handset and chipset business ... I'd like to hear what they are seeing there."
Qualcomm has been seeing increasing competition from the likes of STMicroelectronics (Paris:STM.PA - News) and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - News). The world's largest cell phone maker, Nokia (NOK1V.HE), which does not use Qualcomm's chips, has also been gaining share in the CDMA market.
Qualcomm said it expects earnings per share, excluding investments, of about 37 cents to 40 cents in the fiscal first quarter as revenue decreases about 1 percent to 6 percent from a year ago and increases 16 percent to 22 percent from the fourth quarter.
For fiscal 2004, Qualcomm expects earnings, excluding investments, of $1.37 to $1.43 a share on revenue growth of 5 percent to 9 percent.
(Additional reporting by Jessica Hall in Philadelphia)
Comment: Typical quick newswire reporting. Competition from STM? And the "cautious view," saying there is a risk from other companies entering the handset business (which QCOM sold years ago to Kyocera, so FUD)?
Qualcomm Stays On Track With Fourth Quarter
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/scottmoritz/10124670.html
By Scott Moritz and Bill Snyder
Staff Reporters
11/05/2003 07:43 PM EST
Updated from 4:30 p.m. EST
As expected, Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - commentary - research) on Wednesday reported that net income was up 53% year-over-year on a 4% increase in sales. The company also announced a small upside surprise, issuing guidance that was slightly better than expected.
The San Diego-based wireless chipmaker said that for the fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 30, earnings were $291 million, or 35 cents a share, on revenue of $909 million, compared to a profit of $190.3 million or 23 cents a share on sales of $874 million in the year-ago quarter.
Excluding the company's strategic ventures unit, QSI, earnings were 29 cents a share on revenue of $870 million. Those figures are in line with the Thomson First Call consensus estimate and compare with the year-ago earnings of 31 cents on sales of $840 million.
Looking forward, the company said it would earn 37 to 40 cents a share for its first quarter (exclusive of QSI) -- slightly north of the 36-cent Wall Street estimate, and $1.40 for all of fiscal 2004, in line with the consensus. Revenue in the first quarter will be up between 16% and 22% sequentially, and down 1% to 6% for the year, the company said. Analysts had expected first-quarter revenue to increase by 13%.
Qualcomm expects to ship 27 million or 28 million MSM chipsets in the December quarter, a sequential increase of 35% to 40%.
Ahead of the postclose report, Qualcomm shares slid 65 cents to $46.67, but climbed to $47.09 after hours.
"We could very well see some positive surprises in the future," said Scott Rothbort, a Street Insight contributor and president of LakeView Asset Management. Although he holds a short position in the stock, Rothbort was bullish after management's earnings call, saying he believed management's forecast was a little conservative.
On Sept. 15, Qualcomm updated its fourth-quarter financial forecast, guiding expectations to the high end of its previous range. But the bliss was fleeting as the company adjusted down its much-watched advanced MSM chipset shipment totals to 20 million, flat with year-ago levels and down 13% from the 23 million shipped in the previous quarter.
Handset royalties were expected to be about $202 million in the fourth quarter and increase to $213 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2004. The company now expects 106 to 108 million CDMA phones to ship worldwide in calendar year 2003.
That market will grow to 131 million to 136 million units in fiscal 2004, but average selling prices will drop by about 8%, after dropping 2% in 2003.
As for the market's response tomorrow, I didn't hear all the conference call, but read the releases, etc.
It sounds like the big news release will occur next week in London, including changes to 2004 forecasts. There was nothing unexpected about the earnings, since they preannounced in September (revised guidance). So the next week will likely be level or downward, through Friday's Jobs Report may turn the entire market upward (but when has Q followed the market trend?). In London, I'm predicting more announcements about multimode phones and integrated chipsets.
The Q&A seemed short, only 30 minutes, and several analysts dropped out of the conference call and didn't ask questions. I think the analysts knew to wait until London (so they could convince their bosses they need a vacation, er, work trip to London).
On China, I don't remember hearing much about 450 sytems before there (all on hold now except in Tibet). With the recent announcement of possible 450 systems in Sweden (which must be replacing NMT-Nordic Mobile Telephoone, a analogue system operating at 450Mhz), it looks like CDMA is becoming the system of choice for rural digital coverage, including Europe. It helps that no one else has a 450 Mhz digital system yet, so first market advantage. But for China, just more of the same delaying tactics, nothing new. Also interesting to hear discussion of TS-CDMA (the fact it was discussed).
IJ's short closing was pecular, "A large number of interesting developments [now]." Sort of left us hanging.
Cellphone Deals Sweeten in Face of New Rule on Keeping Number
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/18/technology/18CELL.html?position=&hp=&pagewanted=print&... (Registration req'd)
October 18, 2003
By MATT RICHTEL
et Sirianni is the subject of an intensifying courtship. The overtures — like the recent offer for a free second cellular phone — may win her over to a longer-term relationship.
Her mobile phone service provider, AT&T Wireless, wants her to commit to an additional two years on her contract. "I'm thinking about it," Ms. Sirianni, a 40-year-old corporate art director in San Francisco, said of the free phone proposal. "I may give it to my son."
Ms. Sirianni is one of millions of customers whom wireless companies are trying quietly to entice into renewing their contracts in the next few weeks. New phones, additional minutes and cash credits are being handed out — all with an eye to locking in customers who may not know that come Nov. 24 a new federal regulation will allow them, for the first time, to keep their cellphone numbers when they change mobile services.
Because mobile phones have become as important as traditional phone lines for many consumers, the desire to keep the same cellular number has prevented many from switching providers even if they are less than satisfied with the service. That is about to change.
Kathleen Abernathy, a commissioner at the Federal Communications Commission, recently cited a study that said as many as 8.7 million cellphone users would switch immediately after number portability became available.
The movement may be a watershed moment for the industry. For the six major national mobile phone providers — AT&T Wireless; Verizon Wireless; Cingular Wireless, a joint venture of SBC Communications and BellSouth; T-Mobile, a subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom; Nextel Communications; and Sprint PCS — this could be the start of a shakeout that determines which companies will thrive and which may be absorbed by others.
Heavy competition in this industry has always meant strong marketing and customer retention campaigns. One of the mobile phone carriers' biggest problems has been customer churn, with tens of thousands of customers shifting from one provider to another every month in search of better deals or service. The regulation allowing customers to take their phone numbers with them will accelerate churn, and that is why wireless companies are eager to sign customers to new one- or two-year deals before Nov. 24.
AT&T Wireless is now giving away $50 credits to some customers signing up for an extra year of service as well as airline miles to particularly valuable users. Cingular is handing out free phones and big discounts on color flip-phones to people who sign up for two more years of service. Sprint PCS has been offering similar giveaways.
While many customers are taking up these offers, most are not aware of impending number portability. Industry analysts, research organizations and the wireless carriers themselves say that public awareness of the new regulations is low.
Wireless carriers are hoping that they can take advantage of that absence of awareness to make an 11th-hour hard sell. "They are trying to sign people up for multiyear contracts," said Patrick J. Comack, a telecommunications industry analyst with Guzman & Company, an investment banking firm. "They've significantly upped the incentives, and it's going to get crazy going forward."
By signing customers to longer contracts now, the companies will be able to keep more of them after portability takes effect — or at least force customers to pay termination fees if they do jump services before their contracts expire.
The industry has been trying to address the portability issue since the beginning of the year, and has had notable success in reducing the percentage of customers changing carriers, said Roger Entner, an analyst with the Yankee Group. He said that 2.2 percent of mobile phone customers switched carriers each month during the quarter that ended June 30 compared with 2.7 percent a month on average in 2002.
Nonetheless, Mr. Entner and other analysts expect the numbers of customers switching to soar immediately after Nov. 24, when news coverage and advertising campaigns by wireless companies to lure away their competitors' customers will increase public awareness. He projects that 50 million people will switch providers in 2004, up from the 39 million the group expects to change carriers this year.
The companies are quite aware that number portability gives them a huge opportunity to compete for existing subscribers. Indeed, media outlets are expecting already sizable advertising campaigns by those companies to take off over the next few weeks.
Sprint, for example, has recently published 10 tips for consumers who want to keep their phone numbers and plans to put brochures in stores explaining the process. Three weeks ago, Verizon Wireless put up a Web site where customers can learn about their right to keep their phone numbers and sign up to be contacted by a company representative.
John Stratton, chief marketing officer for Verizon Wireless, said portability would not change the company's long-term retention strategy, but would "magnify it." One strategy is to provide subscribers with a new phone every two years.
Jonathan Tinter, who oversees the portability strategy at AT&T Wireless, said the company did not plan to change significantly its effort to keep customers. But he said he had contingency plans to sweeten the deals if the other carriers started to cut into his customer base, noting that the whole industry was "getting more aggressive with retention."
Other carriers admit that they are already pursuing a hard sell. Andy Wilson, the vice president for marketing at Cingular, said it was offering better incentives to customers whose contracts were about to expire and that he had seen a "much higher than a normal response."
Mr. Entner from the Yankee Group said many people were surprised and pleased with the new deals. "When I talk to unsuspecting friends, they say, `Look at the coup my carrier just offered me.' "
But he said the packages were likely to get even better after it becomes possible to keep a cellphone number when switching carriers. "The smart people are holding out to Christmas" to see what kind of deal they can get to stay with their carrier, he said.
One holdout is John Engelhardt, 51, the director of public relations at River Downs Racetrack, a thoroughbred race track in Cincinnati. He said he was a satisfied customer of Cingular, but he planned to march into one of its stores after Nov. 24 to see if he could get more weekly minutes or free voice mail. "I'm going to ask them what they can do to sweeten the deal," he said, his voice growing with enthusiasm. "This is America. We're built on competition."
Other mobile phone users have circled the date on their calendar for a different reason: they are bent on changing service providers. Vanessa Stagi, 28, a medical sales representative who has been with AT&T Wireless for seven years, said she was tired of dropped calls, poor coverage and high bills.
She has not switched until now because her friends and business clients all have her current cellphone number. "If I switched, I'd have to notify every single hospital and the doctors, surgeons, nurses, hospital directors," she said. Very soon, she added, she will be liberated.
But, all that said, she could be persuaded to stay with AT&T Wireless, she said, if it sweetened the pot enough. "If the offer was right," she said, "I'd consider staying."
GoM meet on Unified licence, WLL violations tomorrow [India]
New Delhi, Oct. 11. (PTI): The Group of Ministers (GoM) on telecom is scheduled to meet tomorrow to deliberate on two of the sector's most hotly-debated issues - unified licensing regime and the alleged violations by some basic operators offering WLL services outside local area SDCA.
The fourth meeting of the GoM would also discuss noted banker Deepak Parekh and Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) chairman, Pradip Baijal, submitting their inputs on transition roadmap to the proposed unified licensing regime.
This would be the second time that both Parekh and Baijal appear before the GoM, headed by Finance Minister Jaswant Singh, to give their views on the issue.
Another issue to be dicussed is the alleged violation by WLL players with regard to the scope of services.
The GoM appears to have hardened its stance on the issue, as three participants in the last meeting are learnt to have emphasised on the need for maintaining the credibility and sanctity of norms evolved for WLL services, where the appellete tribunal ask ed the Government to ensure distinction between cellular and WLL services.
After the first meeting of GoM in September, the Communications Minister Arun Shourie had said the Group "discussed a report by Telecom Engineering Centre (TEC) that there was a violation by Reliance with regard to limitedness of WLL services not being in accordance with spirit of license and GoT-IT's recommendations."
The Minister had susequently pointed out that the GoM would take up the issue on October 12.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/00211180067.htm
Village Kiosks Bridge India's Digital Divide
[Comment: the internet connection used is wireless WLL, which is most likely CDMA in India. An 18-mile range is mentioned! Interesting use of the technology.]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13442-2003Oct11.html
By John Lancaster
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, October 12, 2003; Page A01
ULAGUPITCHANPATTI, India -- Two years ago, after graduating from high school at the top of her class, Sukanya Sakkarai put aside her dreams of college and resigned herself to the fate of most young women in this farming village of trampled earth and mud-brick houses: marriage to a stranger in a match arranged by her parents.
Then the Information Age arrived on her doorstep. Life hasn't been the same for Sakkarai, or her village, since.
Scouts from a communications company approached the teenager last year, when she was working one day a month as an accountant for a village credit cooperative, and asked if she was interested in opening a computer-equipped "information kiosk" in the village, which at that point didn't even have a telephone.
Sakkarai was apprehensive. "I told them, 'I really don't know if I can do this,' " she recalled. "So they turned around and asked, 'Do you have faith in yourself?' I said yes. They said, 'Okay, then the rest we can do for you.' "
Today the 19-year-old runs a thriving small business, charging modest fees for services that range from Internet browsing and e-mail to daily computer classes to weekend screenings of Tamil-language films by means of her computer's CD-ROM drive. Perhaps most important, she acts as a kind of village ombudsman, brokering e-mail exchanges and even videoconferences -- again, for a fee -- between semiliterate villagers and the government bureaucrats who still control many aspects of their lives.
The question now is whether the agent of Sakkarai's emancipation could one day be that of rural India's.
Over the past decade, the Internet has been touted as a powerful engine that could raise living standards in poor and remote communities of the Third World by opening up new avenues for education, commerce and participatory democracy. But the reality is a growing digital divide that is preventing the poor from sharing in the benefits of the Information Age. The gap between digital haves and have-nots is especially wide in India, where a national survey last year revealed that fewer than 1 percent of adults had used the Internet in the preceding three months.
The new approach seeks to bridge this gap with a national network of owner-operated computer centers with Internet access -- part cybercafes, part digital town halls -- that earn income from a broad range of small transactions. It takes advantage of low-cost wireless technology that eliminates the need for telephone lines.
Backers predict there will be thousands of information kiosks across this nation of more than a billion people someday, providing poorly educated villagers -- who until now have reaped few benefits from the country's booming trade in information technology -- with direct access to government officials and records as well as to online services such as banking and medical consultations.
Like Sakkarai, the most successful kiosk operators perform multiple roles, blending altruism and entrepreneurship to promote their services among villagers.
"If it's entrepreneur-driven, people will pride themselves on making it successful," said Ashok Jhunjhunwala, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Madras who helped develop the wireless system that undergirds the slowly evolving network. "After all, they will lose money if they don't."
In many ways, India is the perfect laboratory for adapting the Internet to development needs, bringing together abundant technological expertise with an estimated 700 million people in 600,000 rural villages. Although telephone lines aren't necessary, electricity is, and unreliable power supplies leave many villages without electricity for all but a few hours each day. And some development experts say money used to equip villages with modems and computers could be better spent on primary schools or health clinics.
The approach pioneered by Jhunjhunwala and his colleagues here in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu aims to render that debate irrelevant by turning over the job of connecting rural India to the Internet to profit-minded entrepreneurs.
Central to the effort is Wireless Local Loop technology, which provides cheap, relatively fast Internet connections to fiber-optic cables as far as 18 miles away. Although many villages still lack phone service, India's fiber-optic network is sufficiently well developed to provide wireless coverage for up to 85 percent of the country, Jhunjhunwala said.
He and his colleagues created an independent company, n-Logue Communications, which identifies promising kiosk owners, trains them and provides equipment -- computer, printer, battery backup and wireless Internet antenna -- for about $1,000; n-Logue helps the owners arrange financing, which is then paid off with revenue from the kiosks. The company makes its money from hourly connection fees.
So far, n-Logue has set up more than 500 kiosks in Tamil Nadu and other states, with plans for 10,000 by next June.
While most kiosks are run for profit, one of the most well-established parts of the kiosk network is a demonstration project set up with help from Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and financed in part by India's ICICI Bank. Situated in the tropical Madurai district of interior Tamil Nadu, the Sustainable Access in India, or SARI, project has so far set up 40 kiosks in rural villages such as this one.
The effort has not been without problems, most centering on the failure of kiosk operators to adequately explain and promote their services, according to Joseph Thomas, who manages the project out of a cluttered office at the Indian Institute of Technology campus.
"You have to do a huge amount of awareness generation, and some of these guys are just not into that -- they think it's like setting up a betel-nut shop or cigarette shop," Thomas said. "If it's to become a part of the community, it needs a person who empathizes with the community."
That appears to be the case here in Ulagupitchanpatti, a farming village of about 200 families. Sakkarai, the kiosk operator, had always been perceived as special. "The teachers used to tell us, 'Don't make her sit at home. She's so bright,' " her mother, Kanakasundari, recalled in an interview.
But her father, Aryanan, had other ideas. "We thought we'd just get her married off," he said. "If we sent her for higher studies, then we'd have to look for a groom who's even more highly educated. That would have been a big headache."
Because the village was part of the demonstration project, its sponsors covered the cost of most of the kiosk, though Sakkarai had to borrow about $65 from her father as a kind of down payment.
In the spring of 2002, Sakkarai underwent a week of training in a nearby town, learning her way around the Internet as well as Tamil-language versions of common software programs such as Microsoft Word. She opened for business in a small building next to the eight-room tile-roofed house where she lives with her parents, older brother and 16 other relatives.
Things were slow at first. But then Sakkarai learned from a neighbor, Arumugam Gurusami, of a mysterious blight that was turning his okra crop a sickly yellow. She used her webcam to take a picture of one of the diseased plants, then e-mailed it to a scientist at a regional agricultural college. Later the same day, the scientist got back to her with a proposed remedy -- boron urea, a kind of fertilizer. Thrilled, Sakkarai printed out the response and hurried it over to Gurusami, charging him 10 rupees -- about 22 cents -- for the information.
"I didn't even know the word computer," recalled Gurusami, a grizzled man of 50. Now, he added, "I can sit at home and find answers to my problems."
As word of the okra cure spread, business began to pick up, and this summer Sakkarai crossed a critical threshold, bringing in gross monthly revenue of about $65 -- the threshold at which the kiosk business is deemed profitable.
Sakkarai gets the largest share of her income from teaching computer classes for village children -- and sometimes their teachers and parents. She earns money from villagers who stop by to browse the Internet or to chat online with relatives living abroad. And increasingly, she acts as a paid intermediary in Internet transactions between villagers and government bureaucrats.
Many are mundane requests for things such as birth certificates, which once would have required a bus ride and a long wait in a government office -- and perhaps a petty bribe -- but can now be handled by e-mail.
Some projects are more ambitious. Last month, for example, Sakkarai orchestrated a videoconference between a group of village women and the district collector, the all-powerful government official whose approval they needed to start a dairy cooperative. He approved it on the spot, according to Senthilarasi Suseendran, who led the effort.
Sakkarai's increasingly visible role in the community is a source of pride to her parents, although they do have one nagging worry. In light of her success, her father said ruefully, "We'll have to look for a more educated boy."
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
FUD Alert - 3G Mobile Signals Can Cause Nausea, Headache -Study
Tue September 30, 2003 04:03 PM ET
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Radio signals for the next generation of mobile phone services can cause headaches and nausea, according to a study conducted by three Dutch ministries.
The study, the first of its kind, compared the impact of radiation from base stations used for the current mobile telephone network with that of base stations for new third generation (3G) networks for fast data transfer, which will enable services such as video conferencing on a mobile device.
A base station, which usually covers a "cell" area of several square kilometers (miles), transmits signals to mobile phones with an electromagnetic field.
"If the test group was exposed to third generation base station signals there was a significant impact ... They felt tingling sensations, got headaches and felt nauseous," a spokeswoman for the Dutch Economics Ministry said.
There was no negative impact from signals for current mobile networks.
However, cognitive functions such as memory and response times were boosted by both 3G signals and the current signals, the study found. It said people became more alert when they were exposed to both.
Government ministers responsible for Economic Affairs, Health and Telecommunications said follow-up research was needed to confirm the findings as well as to look at any longer-term health effects and biological causes.
They will also discuss the study with the European Commission, the spokeswoman said.
The double-blind laboratory tests -- meaning no one in the survey knew if a 3G-like base station was actually transmitting signals -- exposed test subjects to expected levels of average radiation for 3G networks when they become commercial.
The GSM Association, a global organization of mobile telecommunications operators, said it was studying the report and could not comment.
The study, conducted by the Dutch technological research institute TNO, was the first to look for an impact of mobile telephones on well-being. It was also the first study to find a statistically significant negative impact from 3G base stations.
Previous research on a negative health impact of mobile phones, mostly second-generation, has been inconclusive.
Existing research gives no scientific evidence that second-generation phones cause brain tumors, while a long-term study by the International Agency on Research on Cancer is not expected to yield results before 2004.
Previous research did find an impact on cognitive functions, which was also found in the Dutch survey. But TNO noted that earlier studies always measured the impact of cellphones held close to the head, causing high fields of radiation close to the ear and warming of the brain.
TNO's study used lower a dose of radiation to mimic base station signals rather than handsets.
Handsets emit stronger radiation when they are used, while base stations transmit more constant levels of radio signals, exposing everyone within range.
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=3534786
Wide use of wireless network card represents China Telecom's entry into "Quasi 3G"
5/13/03
Translated from People's Daily (China):
http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/t/2003-05-13/0909186053.shtml
After inserting a small name-card size wireless network card into notebooks, people can access the Internet anywhere at any time. The popularity of this wireless method that enjoys a much higher speed than traditional dial-up indicates China's mobile telecommunication industry is stepping toward the 3G era.
The wireless network card looks almost the same as the previous network card, except that a cable of the latter one is replaced by a 4 centimeter long antenna. This "replacement" lets notebook users utilize the nationwide 1X network, which has already been put into operation. Within the network, people can surf freely on the Internet and enjoy the SMS no matter if they are on a running train or bus, without a roaming fee.
Many domestic and foreign telecommunication manufactures, including ZTE, are engaged themselves in producing this kind of network card at a large quantity and commit themselves to reduce its price a little bit lower than several thousand, thus it could be well accepted by the public.
It is reported that the highest transmission rate of this wireless network card can reach 153.6kbps, much higher than using a handset at 9.6kbps and dial-up method at 56kbps.
After trying different wireless ways of accessing five typical Web sites, it is evident that CDMA 1X is the highest one on the current market, for instance, it receives peak packet data speeds of 136.95kbps when browsing the Web page, two times faster than other wireless ways. On Feb. 15, Unicom (Shanghai) did a test in an aerotrain on its way to Pudong Airport at a speed of 430km/hour, it yielded a great success from the 8 minute long call and expedited online surfing during the whole process.
3G mobile services provide better quality voice and high-speed Internet and multimedia service comparing to 2G, which is widely used now. The most important criterion in defining 3G is transmission rate. According to the standard of the ITU, the minimum speed rate should be no lower than 144kbps. From these tests, we can see that the nominal speed rate and on-site testing speed rate of CDMA 1X fluctuate up and down around 144kbps, thus providing much convenience to China Unicom which has deployed CDMA 1X technology. The reason is that if according to the strict definition of the ITU, CDMA 1X has already been recognized as a standard 3G technology. Furthermore, QUALCOMM, as a world leading company featured with CDMA technology also put CDMA 1X as the first-phase of a 3G technology, followed by many optimization phases that have already been commercially launched in Korea.
===
Found at Qualcomm IR and http://www.3gtoday.com/news/peoplesdaily051303.html
Mobiles 'make you senile'
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_medical/story.jsp?story=443248
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor.
14 September 2003
Mobile phones and the new wireless technology could cause a "whole generation" of today's teenagers to go senile in the prime of their lives, new research suggests
The study - which warns specifically against "the intense use of mobile phones by youngsters" - comes as research on their health effects is being scaled down, due to industry pressure. It is likely to galvanise concern about the almost universal exposure to microwaves in Western countries, by revealing a new way in which they may seriously damage health.
Professor Leif Salford, who headed the research at Sweden's prestigious Lund University, says "the voluntary exposure of the brain to microwaves from hand-held mobile phones" is "the largest human biological experiment ever". And he is concerned that, as new wireless technology spreads, people may "drown in a sea of microwaves".
The study - financed by the Swedish Council for Work Life Research, and published by the US government's National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences - breaks new ground by looking at how low levels of microwaves cause proteins to leak across the blood-brain barrier.
Previous concerns about mobile phones have concentrated on the possibility that the devices may heat the brain, or cause cancer. But the heating is thought to be too minor to have an effect and hundreds of cancer studies have been inconclusive.
As a result, the US mobile phone industry has succeeded in cutting research into the health effects, and the World Health Organisation is unlikely to continue its studies.
Mays Swicord, a scientific adviser to Motorola told New Scientist magazine that governments and industry should "stop wasting money" by looking for health damage.
But Professor Salford and his team have spent 15 years investigating a different threat. Their previous studies proved radiation could open the blood-brain barrier, allowing a protein called albumin to pass into the brain. Their latest work goes a step further, by showing the process is linked to serious brain damage. Professor Salford said the long-term effects were not proven, and that it was possible the neurons would repair themselves in time. But, he said, neurons that would normally not become "senile" until people reached their 60s may now do so when they were in their 30s.
He says he deliberately refrained from publicising his work to avoid alarm, and acknowledges that mobile phones can save lives.
====
Comment - how has the mobile phone industry succeeded in cutting research into this topic, unless they were paying for it in the first place? In which case the verb isn't "succeeded." This allegation is not proved in this article.
This is more FUD for the Sunday paper.
Jake/Geld, Welcome back. I think Merrill's forecast is low (50) , but then I'm upbeat about 4Q 03 for the economy.
Todays's opening spike was technically interesting. The jump on open implies that attention is being focused of QCOM again. The next 6 months should be interesting. Also, on Aug 29, USB raised its forecast.
If Dan Niles says something too, watch out.
Qualcomm Hands Over UMTS
09.02.03
[Hope this isn't old news]
SAN DIEGO -- QUALCOMM Incorporated (Nasdaq: QCOM - message board), pioneer and world leader of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) digital wireless technology, today announced successful WCDMA (UMTS) field trials in operators' networks in Asia, Europe and North America, marking a significant step toward WCDMA (UMTS) network commercialization. This important milestone, based on field trials conducted jointly with numerous worldwide operators, proves that users can experience continuous service between third-generation (3G) and second-generation (2G) networks for voice and packet data service. Using the TM6200™ test mobile, QUALCOMM has successfully tested WCDMA (UMTS) circuit switched data, packet switched data, GPRS data, and WCDMA (UMTS) and GSM voice - both in the multiple WCDMA (UMTS) and GSM/GPRS frequency bands and on the multiple networks supported by a majority of the worldwide infrastructure providers.
"Our commitment to a smooth and timely WCDMA (UMTS) launch is solidified by our successful testing both in the lab and in the field as we work to continually help optimize WCDMA (UMTS) networks in real-world settings," said David Patterson, director of product management for QUALCOMM CDMA Technologies. "The continued success of our WCDMA program is derived from our ongoing testing and close collaboration with operators worldwide."
The QUALCOMM TM6200 test mobile is a complete radioOne™ direct conversion RF dual-mode solution featuring the highly integrated MSM6200™ Mobile Station Modem (MSM™) chipset solution. The MSM6200 chipset solution consists of the MSM6200 WCDMA (UMTS)/GSM/GPRS baseband processor, the direct conversion RFL6200™ and RFR6200™ WCDMA (UMTS) receive devices, the direct conversion RTR6200™ GSM transceiver and WCDMA (UMTS) transmitter, and the PM6050™ power management device.
The MSM6200 chipset and system software integrates WCDMA (UMTS) with GSM/GPRS systems in a single solution to enable the development of multimode products for 3G networks. QUALCOMM's second-generation WCDMA (UMTS) solution, the MSM6200 chipset supports data rates of up to 384 kbps in WCDMA (UMTS) mode.
Like all members of the MSM6xxx family, the complete MSM6200 solution incorporates QUALCOMM's radioOne Zero Intermediate Frequency (ZIF) architecture, which eliminates the need for Intermediate Frequency (IF) components, including large IF Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) filters and additional IF circuitry. With radioOne technology, the MSM6200 solution requires less printed-circuit-board area than previous-generation chipsets and reduces bill-of-material costs for dual-mode handsets.
The MSM6200 solution also supports QUALCOMM's Launchpad™ suite of advanced multimedia, connectivity, position location, user interface and removable storage functionality. The MSM6200 chipset includes QUALCOMM's Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless™ (BREW™) platform. With the BREW protocols and tools, handset manufacturers and developers can develop embedded wireless applications and BREW-based products more quickly and easily. The MSM6200 chipset is also compatible with the Java™ runtime environment; the J2ME™ solution can be built entirely on the MSM6250 chipset's BREW software layer.
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=39395
RE: Eudora(R) 6.0 - I'm still on ver 1.5.2!
Actually, I still use the old version on an email account started in 1995. Almost nothing but spam comes to this address, but I check it every couple of weeks for real mail. So this old program is great, no HTML capabilities, no displaying embedded pictures, no execution of viruses, etc. Perfect for my needs here.
And I do use ver 5 for my regular email account.
It is these "other" products of Qualcomm that I think are equal to QCOM's value this past summer (OMNITRACS, etc in particular), that none of the analysts ever seem to look at. Eudora is the #2 email program after the MSFT products. And then there are the holdings in the discount ISP United Online (Netzero/Juno). (QCOM invested in Netzero) "United is attracting new customers almost as quickly as AOL is losing them," a recent article stated.
UBS raises price target on Qualcomm stock
6:54:30 AM ET 8/29/2003
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- UBS raised its fiscal 2004 and 2005 GAAP estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM) to $1.20 per share from $1.16 and to $1.40 from $1.37, respectively. The broker also hiked its 12-month price target by $5 to $38. UBS cited the company's letter of intent to divest of the Vesper operator business in Brazil and its view that material future investments are now less likely. "Near-term the stock should trade at the lower end of the range given the prospect for essentially flat revenues in 2003," it said.
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/excite-com/news-story.asp?dateid=37862.2878472222-806765294&...
Qualcomm announcement signals growing storage need for mobile phones
by Mike Dano
Aug. 26, 2003 12:45 PM EST
CDMA giant Qualcomm Inc. announced it will add support for removable miniSD and SD cards in its line of Mobile Station Modem chipsets. The move is a nod to the growing power of mobile phones and the resulting need for additional storage capabilities.
Such advances in storage create significant new opportunities in wireless. Imagine: A “Simpsons” fan could buy the entire first season of the TV show on quarter-sized cards, which could then be slipped into a phone's memory card slot for viewing. Or an MP3 buff could download a few hundred songs onto a storage card and listen to them later using a mobile phone.
Indeed, some advanced mobile phones currently operate much like desktop computers or high-end personal digital assistants, complete with large internal memories and slots for data disks. For example, the Sony Ericsson high-end P800 features 12 Megabytes of internal storage, plus a Memory Stick Duo card slot that can increase storage to as much as 100 MB. Nokia Corp.'s new 3650 smart phone also features 3.4 MB of internal storage, plus a MultiMediaCard slot that can hold around 100 MB as well. And phone makers and storage companies promise that this is just the beginning. Indeed, Microsoft Corp. executives have been showing off a device using their Smartphone operating system that includes a card with 1 Gigabyte worth of storage.
Such holding capability easily dwarfs that of desktop computers sold just five years ago. Research firm IDC predicts most of the memory technology in the wireless business will center on flash storage cards. The firm predicts 218 million such cards will be sold in mobile phones by 2007. Flash storage technology works by creating a charge that stays in a cell even after the system is turned off, thus lowering prices and power consumption.
Under its new offering, Qualcomm teamed with storage company SanDisk Corp. The companies said that by adding miniSD/SD card memory integration, consumers can store digital photos, navigational maps, audio and video clips, games, music and other entertainment and enterprise files in a variety of downloadable file formats on their SD-enabled wireless devices.
“We're pleased to provide support for SanDisk's removable memory cards, storage solutions that enhance the multimedia and position location applications for our 3G CDMA chipset solutions,” said Luis Pineda, vice president of product management for Qualcomm’s CDMA technologies. “The collaboration between Qualcomm’s chipsets and SanDisk's storage solutions will increase the convenience of storing information on 3G CDMA wireless devices.”
http://rcrnews.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=14833
========
Comment: Hmmmm.
CDMA Mobile Phones Growing Fast In India
BY MIKE ANGELL
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY (Page A4)
U.S. cell phone stores should have such problems.
When a carrier launched a new low-cost service in India this year, police had to be called out to control crowds clamoring to buy a phone. News reports said some stores had to handle thousands of shoppers.
The new cellular service is one of the first in that country to use Code Division Multiple Access technology. In that country, CDMA has been dubbed the "poor man's cellular" because it costs less than services using the Global System for Mobile communications standard. GSM is the main mobile standard in most of the world. The younger CDMA has Korea, Japan, roughly half of the U.S. and a chunk of China.
As the wireless phone industry lags overall, India is potentially a huge growth market for CDMA. Many cell phone and gear makers and service providers have high hopes for India.
"Markets like the U.S., Japan and Korea are very solid, but future growth is going to come from developing countries like India," said Jeff Jacobs, Qualcomm Inc.'s (QCOM) vice president for business development. Qualcomm invented CDMA and is the leading maker of CDMA cell phone chips.
Still, India remains more promise than performance. The country's mobile phone business is going through turmoil as rules get worked out and demand shifts between GSM and CDMA.
"Yes, it's (CDMA) growing fast," said Shiv Putcha, an analyst with market tracker the Yankee Group. "But there's been so much regulatory uncertainty. Prices for service plans and phones are changing so much. It's a very fluid situation."
Mobile phone service arrived in India a decade or so ago. Growth came slowly, though, because the way the system evolved in India resulted in relatively high prices for GSM.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/tech.asp?v=8/26
This Time, Cell Phones Woes
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-biz-cell0824,0,358890.story?coll=ny-linews-headlines
Failures in outage reveal weaknesses
By Richard J. Dalton Jr.
Staff Writer
August 23, 2003, 9:51 PM EDT
When the lights went out, Donald Buckland trudged for more than five hours from his job on the Upper West Side to his mother-in-law's house in Flushing. Trying again and again to call his wife with his cell phone, the perseverance finally paid off when he crossed the 59th Street Bridge into Queens.
The hours after the blackout earlier this month proved frustrating for Buckland and many others who tried to reach family and friends using a cell phone. Less than two years after the cellular network faltered following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the cellular system -- which the wireless industry promotes as a safety net during emergencies -- choked again.
The system broke down as a flood of nervous callers overloaded the network for some carriers; there wasn't enough capacity to handle the excess calls. Complicating matters, many cellular sites, which depend on electricity, had inadequate backup power.
Cell-phone carriers say the electrical outage was an event they couldn't possibly foresee.
"This was a massive, unprecedented, once-in-a-lifetime failure of the electrical power system," said Mark Siegel, spokesman for AT&T Wireless.
"Calling volumes went up pretty significantly for us," he said. "And then, of course, the power is gone."
Industry executives question whether it's worth investing substantial capital into the system to prevent service problems during a major power failure that happens maybe once every 30 years.
"It's like blaming the microwave oven manufacturer that the microwave doesn't work when the power goes out," said Roger Entner, an analyst with the Yankee Group, a consulting company in Boston.
This view rankles consumer advocates who say crises are precisely the time when cell phones are most important. Now that consumers have come to depend upon cellular service, the industry should either educate consumers more about its shortcomings or expand the network, advocates say.
No federal regulations exist regarding reliability.
"There should be a reliability test that these guys should pass," said Bruce Kushnick, chairman of TeleTruth, a telecommunications consumer advocacy organization based in Manhattan.
[b}During its investigation next month into the blackout itself, Congress will likely look into the problems cell-phone customers faced.
"Any system that depends on electricity or computers is going to have real problems during a blackout," said Ken Johnson, a spokesman for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. "Our bigger concern is: Why aren't the backup systems more reliable? Undoubtedly, it's a question that will be raised."
Emergencies are one of the top attractions for buying a cell phone. About six in 10 people who lack a cell phone say they would feel safer or more secure owning one, according to a recent poll by Harris Interactive for AT&T Wireless.
The $76-billion industry even fosters the notion of the cell phones coming to the rescue during emergencies, touting that wireless phones handle 139,000 emergency 911 calls every day.
But shortly after the power went out Aug. 14, some callers saw an indication that service wasn't available, meaning nearby cell sites were out of power.
Other customers received a faster-than-usual busy signal after dialing, indicating the cellular network was overloaded. Still other customers could place calls, but the recipient's phone wasn't working, so the caller would hear either nothing or incessant ringing.
Many of the calls were rejected as the overburdened system couldn't handle more calls. It's like having so much traffic on the Long Island Expressway that people have to wait to get on an entrance ramp.
The inadequacies of cell phones emanate in part from the technology itself. Cellular networks are a combination of two major inventions: the telephone and the radio. A cellular phone sends a radio signal to a nearby cell site, which then relays the call to a switching station that routes it to the recipient on a landline or wireless phone.
It's a decentralized network, with cell sites throughout a coverage area that can cover a radius of up to 10 miles, and each cell site dependent on the local electrical system.
The traditional landline phone network, on the other hand, is centralized, with hard-wired connections to each home and business. The power comes directly from the local office over the phone lines, and the backup power is only required at the local office.
That century-old setup held up quite well. But the 20-year-old cellular network that Americans have come to depend upon choked for worried customers.
Even barring an emergency, the cell-phone network is inherently less reliable than the landline network. The industry standard: For every 100,000 cellular calls, 2,000 fail to connect, compared with one failure for landline phones.
But the reliability during emergencies was worse, according to Consumer Reports magazine, which found that 15 percent of cell-phone users faced trouble reaching 911, with 4 percent failing altogether.
Experts say it's more difficult for cellular phone companies to predict capacity than it is for landline phones. After all, the local phone company knows the maximum number of calls it might handle because there's a hard-wired connection to each home and business with phone service. With cellular phones, people can travel anywhere.
Cell-phone carriers try to predict how many users will be placing calls in a given area and place an appropriate number of cell sites to handle the volume. But in an emergency, the volume skyrockets. In the hours after the power went out, wireless carriers in the New York City area were hit with up to four times the number of calls.
"One of the first things people think of during an emergency is to make a cellular call," said Alan Reiter, president of Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing, a consulting company in Chevy Chase, Md. "One reason people can't get on a cellular network is because there are too many other people on the cellular network."
Cell phone companies build their network to handle the amount of calls they project for the following year. But the growth of the industry has been phenomenal. The number of cell-phone subscribers skyrocketed to 140 million last year, double the number from 1998, according to the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association.
Cellular calling is more popular than any of its most imaginative inventors envisioned when they unveiled the first cellular phone in 1973 with a pricetag of $3,500 and weight of more than two pounds. (It took another decade for commercial service to become available.)
Capacity wasn't the only issue in the blackout. Many of the problems were caused by insufficient backup power. The core of the cellular network -- the switching stations that route the calls -- had generators with enough fuel for several days, and can run indefinitely with refueling. And most cellular sites have backup batteries.
The problem was that batteries generally can power the site for just two to eight hours, depending on how many batteries the location can accommodate.
In urban areas, cellular towers aren't feasible, and carriers must squeeze in antennas wherever possible, including stairwells and the sides of buildings. These smaller locations might only be able to handle a couple of backup batteries. Bigger sites, on floors and rooftops specially reinforced to handle the extra weight, might accommodate a dozen to 20 batteries.
Still, cell sites eventually ran out of backup power. Nearby sites with backup power could pick up the traffic by expanding the radius they cover. But those sites would have to transmit the signal further, draining the batteries faster.
When the batteries die, a backup diesel generator kicks in -- if one has been installed. But even companies that sell generators say they're not feasible at many sites because local ordinances restrict the use of diesel fuel in certain locations, and some landlords resist bulky, noisy, smoke-producing devices on the roof.
At sites without backup generators, emergency response teams for the cellular carriers rushed around the city, Long Island and other affected areas with portable generators, which could recharge the batteries in a few hours.
And when all else fails, COWS come to the rescue -- that is, Cells On Wheels. COWS are portable cellular stations, which can actually transmit the calls to the wireless phones and send them through the network via a cable connection or a microwave signal.
Verizon Wireless has used COWS during concerts and other events as well as emergencies, such as the crash of TWA Flight 800, the Sept. 11 attacks and the blackout.
Over the long term, cellular providers are adding coverage to more areas and overlapping coverage areas. Last year, cellular companies spent about $22 billion on capital investment, or $160 per subscriber, according to the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association. And several carriers have deployed technology that allows a given site to handle more calls by transmitting the signals more efficiently, and others are upgrading to the more efficient service.
But industry representatives questioned whether the cellular phone companies should pump significant money into the network merely to ensure full use during such an unusual event as a widespread blackout.
Buckland, who trekked from the city to Queens, benefited from having an alternative. The next morning, when he was unable to reach his wife, he turned to his portable Ham radio, reaching a Whitesone man who had phone service. "I said, 'Would you mind telling my wife I'm OK and could she pick me up?'"
Soon Buckland was on his way home to Kings Park, discovering once again that an old technology was more dependable than his fancy cell phone.
"That happens all the time," he said. "That's why I carry that radio with me."
Copyright © 2003, Newsday, Inc.
Nokia Preps for W-CDMA War
08.22.03
Nokia Corp.'s (NYSE: NOK - message board) financially stricken networks division claims to have put its 3G equipment problems to bed and is now gearing up for an assault on chief rival LM Ericsson's (Nasdaq: ERICY - message board) crown.
Earlier this year Nokia's efforts in the wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) market suffered a major setback when reports suggested the British operation of Hutchison 3G Ltd. was experiencing problems with the performance quality of its infrastructure (see Hutch's Nokia Network Woes?).
These fears were amplified in July when Hutchison 3G HK Ltd. publicly dumped the vendor as its primary base station supplier, replacing it with kit from NEC Corp. (Nasdaq: NIPNY - message board) and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI - message board; Frankfurt: SIE) (see Nokia Suffers 3G Blow and Nokia's Asian Angst).
Nokia today touched on the extent of these problems, citing issues with "handover functionality" between existing 2G networks and new 3G W-CDMA technology.
"During the first quarter of this year, when rolling out software to the market, we found we needed to do much more field testing in each network environment in order to ensure stability in the software," admits Kai Konola, director of market development at Nokia Networks.
"In W-CDMA especially, you really need to pay attention to the optimization of the network and plan interoperability between W-CDMA and GSM so that you can get the handovers working. When we built GSM [Global System for Mobile Communications] networks, we didn't have any fallback."
Nokia’s network man believes the company has suffered from the negative publicity surrounding the problems, but is now on the road to recovery. "In terms of publicity, we are a little bit labeled by those facts... but we have learned a lot in the first half of this year and those lessons are improving the quality of the networks. There were challenges, but we have seen increasing stability in the last three to four months."
Konola is keen to play up the company’s recent fortunes in the W-CDMA contract war, noting that between 15 and 20 operators worldwide will have launched networks by the end of this year. Nokia expects to have supplied kit to "roughly ten" of these projects.
Such success will aid Nokia’s quest to wrest the top W-CDMA vendor spot from Ericsson (see Nokia Claims WCDMA Lead). According to a recent Unstrung Insider report -- "W-CDMA: Disrupting the Technology Chain" -- Nokia controls approximately 32 percent of the market, behind Ericsson’s 40 percent majority.
"We have set ourselves a target to reach 35 percent market share... and we are well on track to reach this over the next few years," adds Konola. "As the market consolidates, I believe that would be enough for the number one position. Our target is to be the number one W-CDMA network vendor. The market share we have today puts us in a good position to grow on this."
The W-CDMA air interface is part of the Universal Mobile Telecommunications Standard (UMTS), adopted as the European 3G standard. Used with existing GSM core networks, W-CDMA-compliant handsets and base stations can potentially increase wireless data transfer rates to a maximum of 2 Mbit/s.
— Justin Springham, Senior Editor, Europe, Unstrung
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=39078
====
You'll have to go to the original for the links to other articles mentioned.
... OK, I don't normally post here; thought I'd look around
Nokia Preps for W-CDMA War
08.22.03
Nokia Corp.'s (NYSE: NOK - message board) financially stricken networks division claims to have put its 3G equipment problems to bed and is now gearing up for an assault on chief rival LM Ericsson's (Nasdaq: ERICY - message board) crown.
Earlier this year Nokia's efforts in the wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) market suffered a major setback when reports suggested the British operation of Hutchison 3G Ltd. was experiencing problems with the performance quality of its infrastructure (see Hutch's Nokia Network Woes?).
These fears were amplified in July when Hutchison 3G HK Ltd. publicly dumped the vendor as its primary base station supplier, replacing it with kit from NEC Corp. (Nasdaq: NIPNY - message board) and Siemens AG (NYSE: SI - message board; Frankfurt: SIE) (see Nokia Suffers 3G Blow and Nokia's Asian Angst).
Nokia today touched on the extent of these problems, citing issues with "handover functionality" between existing 2G networks and new 3G W-CDMA technology.
"During the first quarter of this year, when rolling out software to the market, we found we needed to do much more field testing in each network environment in order to ensure stability in the software," admits Kai Konola, director of market development at Nokia Networks.
"In W-CDMA especially, you really need to pay attention to the optimization of the network and plan interoperability between W-CDMA and GSM so that you can get the handovers working. When we built GSM [Global System for Mobile Communications] networks, we didn't have any fallback."
Nokia’s network man believes the company has suffered from the negative publicity surrounding the problems, but is now on the road to recovery. "In terms of publicity, we are a little bit labeled by those facts... but we have learned a lot in the first half of this year and those lessons are improving the quality of the networks. There were challenges, but we have seen increasing stability in the last three to four months."
Konola is keen to play up the company’s recent fortunes in the W-CDMA contract war, noting that between 15 and 20 operators worldwide will have launched networks by the end of this year. Nokia expects to have supplied kit to "roughly ten" of these projects.
Such success will aid Nokia’s quest to wrest the top W-CDMA vendor spot from Ericsson (see Nokia Claims WCDMA Lead). According to a recent Unstrung Insider report -- "W-CDMA: Disrupting the Technology Chain" -- Nokia controls approximately 32 percent of the market, behind Ericsson’s 40 percent majority.
"We have set ourselves a target to reach 35 percent market share... and we are well on track to reach this over the next few years," adds Konola. "As the market consolidates, I believe that would be enough for the number one position. Our target is to be the number one W-CDMA network vendor. The market share we have today puts us in a good position to grow on this."
The W-CDMA air interface is part of the Universal Mobile Telecommunications Standard (UMTS), adopted as the European 3G standard. Used with existing GSM core networks, W-CDMA-compliant handsets and base stations can potentially increase wireless data transfer rates to a maximum of 2 Mbit/s.
— Justin Springham, Senior Editor, Europe, Unstrung
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=39078
====
You'll have to go to the original for the links to other articles mentioned.
RB - Good point about the Ericcson layoffs possibly providing a source of CDMA engineers. I did a bit more research to find out the numbers, and what divisions. People are being laid off from both Ericsson, and Ericsson-Sony, with the bulk being from ES.
It looks like Ericsson laid off 20 employees in April, out of about 1800 - in a "first phase of a restructuring that could see additional staff reductions at the facility."
However, in June came this announcement "Sony Ericsson will slice 500 jobs - including a little more than 200 in Research Triangle Park - as it phases out its North American CDMA mobile phone operations and streamlines its GSM/UMTS research and development activities. Sony Ericsson still employs about 500 people in RTP after the cuts. ... Sony Ericsson will lay off employees at its CDMA research and development center in Research Triangle Park....Of the 750 local employees, about 700 are engineers and development personnel, and the rest are sales and marketing staff. " --- So 200 out of 700, and mostly CDMA engineers.
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2003/06/23/daily15.html?jst=s_rs_hl
There is also this post from DR
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1134693
Qualcomm sets up research design site in RTP (Raleigh, NC)
San Diego-based Qualcomm announced Thursday that it is opening a research design facility in Research Triangle Park.
The new office will focus on the design and development of Qualcomm chips with advanced microprocessors that can be used in the wireless enterprise data market and also in high performance wireless devices, including audio-visual and gaming equipment.
Qualcomm, which has 8,100 employees worldwide, says it will hire for the Triangle office an undisclosed number of employees with hardware and software development skills. Qualcomm did not immediately return a phone call seeking more details on the office.
http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2003/08/18/daily30.html
===
Checking the RTP website, I find the following IT tenants:
Information Technology/Telecommunications
(21 Organizations & 27,928 Employees)
Advanced Digital Systems, Inc.
Advanced Engineering & Research Associates
Ariel Technologies
Caspian Networks
Checkfree Investment Services
Cisco Systems
Delta Products Corporation
EMC Corporation
Enterprise Research, Inc.
Ericsson, Inc.
FullSeven Technologies
International Business Machines (IBM)
K-1 Concepts
Learning Machines, Inc.
LITESPEC Optical Fiber LLC
Lockheed Martin
Mallet Technology Inc.
Network Development Group
Nortel Networks
Overture Networks, Inc.
Software Development Europe, Inc.
Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications
Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation
trianglecitysearch.com
UAI Technologies
Verizon
Schneider National Selects QUALCOMM for Untethered Trailer Tracking Solution ( Schneider to Deploy New TrailerTRACS(R) Solution for Untethered Asset Management )
GREEN BAY, Wis. and SAN DIEGO, Aug 19, 2003 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Schneider National, Inc., a leading provider of premium truckload and intermodal transportation and logistics solutions, today named QUALCOMM Wireless Business Solutions, a division of QUALCOMM Incorporated ( NASDAQ:QCOM), as its untethered trailer tracking provider of choice.
Schneider National and QUALCOMM have a long history of working together and leveraging technology for the benefit of the shipping community. Today, Schneider National continues to build on this relationship with the selection of QUALCOMM's untethered TrailerTRACS asset management system for its nationwide trailer fleet.
"Schneider National has been committed to bringing customers the value of a viable trailer tracking solution for years. We are very selective about investing in new products and view our trailer tracking initiative as a key strategic opportunity that must be done right," said Paul Mueller, vice president of technology services at Schneider National. "We believe QUALCOMM's new TrailerTRACS product most effectively meets our requirements and will translate into another differentiator for Schneider National. We look forward to working with QUALCOMM on the development and delivery of an untethered asset management system for our fleet."
"After surveying our customers, we found that over two-thirds want to know where the trailer is at all times and if it is loaded or unloaded," stated Scott Arves, president, transportation sector, Schneider National. "Moreover, the customer is willing to reward the carrier who offers trailer tracking with more business."
In addition, using the new system, Schneider National will experience productivity and efficiency gains in trailer asset management and utilization. These gains will increase driver productivity and job satisfaction, enhance customer service and increase trailer security.
Utilizing the technology, Schneider National gains visibility and will be able to monitor status (loaded or empty), location, and know if a trailer is hooked to or unhooked from a tractor or a rail car.
Arves added, "The tracking data allows Schneider National to achieve optimal equipment positioning and utilization so that customers' requests for capacity can be filled faster than ever before."
"We are excited to be selected as Schneider National's untethered trailer tracking provider after the company's rigorous selection process identified our product design as meeting its needs for a rugged, secure and reliable asset tracking solution," said Chris Wolfe, president of QUALCOMM Wireless Business Solutions. "This designation builds upon our strong 15 year relationship with Schneider National and its commitment to innovation and technology leadership."
About Schneider National Inc.
Schneider National Inc. is North America's leading provider of premium truckload and intermodal transportation and logistics solutions. Schneider National serves more than two-thirds of the Fortune 500 companies, offering the broadest portfolio of services in the industry. Schneider National's transportation solutions include: One-Way Van, Dedicated, Expedited, Intermodal, Brokerage, Bulk, and Specialized. Schneider Logistics, a wholly owned subsidiary of Schneider National, provides supply chain management technology, managed services, engineering services and freight payment.
Headquartered in Green Bay, Wis., Schneider National has a track record of providing expert transportation and logistics solutions. For more information about Schneider, visit http://www.schneider.com or call (800) 558-6767.
About QUALCOMM Incorporated
QUALCOMM is the industry's global leader in providing high-value wireless data solutions with a Network Management Center that processes more than seven million transactions each day and has shipped over 470,000 QUALCOMM mobile systems to businesses in more than 39 countries on four continents.
QUALCOMM Incorporated ( http://www.qualcomm.com ) is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. Headquartered in San Diego, Calif., QUALCOMM is included in the S&P 500 Index and is a 2003 FORTUNE 500(R) company traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market(R) under the ticker symbol QCOM.
Except for the historical information contained herein, this news release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the Company's ability to successfully design and have manufactured significant quantities of CDMA components on a timely and profitable basis, the extent and speed to which CDMA is deployed, change in economic conditions of the various markets the Company serves, as well as the other risks detailed from time to time in the Company's SEC reports, including the report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2002, and most recent Form 10-Q.
QUALCOMM, OmniTRACS, and TrailerTRACS are registered trademarks. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
SOURCE Schneider National Inc.
Power Outage - vs Cell Phones
Trying to cull through the various snippets, I surmise that Verizon's CDMA network has mostly stayed up (haven't seen anything about Bell Canada's CDMA network). However, NEXTEL's iDen network was down hard. Considering that many organizations depend on NEXTEL's PTT walkie-talkie feature for emergency coordination, Verizon's PTT rollout earlier this week may be even more important.
However, I wonder if there are any power-conserving features in the base stations (regardless of protocol) - like ditch data in favor of voice when power is lost.
Briefing.com Market Report -- Story Stocks (QCOM, NOK, MOT)
July 24, 2003 11:16:00 AM ET
Qualcomm (QCOM) 37.31 +1.06: Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) announced its fiscal third quarter for 2003 after the close yesterday, and excluding the Qualcomm Strategic initiative (which manages QCOM’s strategic investment activities), reported revenue of $891 mln, which was below the Reuters Research consensus estimate of $901 mln. EPS of $0.33 was above the the consensus estimate of $0.30, as ASPs did not fall as much as analysts and the Company had expected.
While ASPs did decline, they did not fall as much as expected and management guided analysts to a lower ASP decline for the calendar year. This benefited gross margins and helped the Company produce an upside earnings surprise. Gross margins in the quarter came in at 67.9%, above 66.5% in the previous quarter. Lower operating expenses also contributed to better than expected bottom line results.
On the call, management noted that camera phones were stimulating the replacement cycle, particularly in Japan. They also noted that the Company's CDMA technology now has 44% market share in the U.S. Phones in the North American market tend to have less features, and therefore, have a hard time differentiating Qualcomm phones from competitors. This drives down ASPs and those phones generally carry lower margins as well. Phones in Asia continue to be more feature rich, and therefore, carry a higher margin and see less erosion of ASPs. For the quarter, ASPs were approximately $190, which was down 3% for the quarter. The ASP decline was expected to be 10% for the calendar year, but the company fine tuned that guidance down to a 5% ASP decline.
Guidance for the next quarter was a little weak, as the Company said that it expected to have revenue growth of 2% to 6% from the prior year. That equates to $856 mln to $890 mln, and the current consensus estimate is now calling for revenues of $871 mln. Earnings are forecasted to be between $0.27 and $0.29 per share, with the current Reuters Research estimate coming in at the high end of that range.
Other cellular phone companies such as Nokia (NOK) and Motorola (MOT) have noted that there is a significant amount of inventory still in the channel due to SARS. While there was a backup in chipsets, the company said that it expected the small portion of excess inventory to be worked out at the end of September. At that time, chipsets and handsets will see more normalized shipment rates.
While this report includes some good news and some bad news, what is really important here is that management was able to give a very specific time frame to work out the excess inventory that has been plaguing the industry. This gives us a huge boost in confidence that management can see an exact end to the inventory issue, and is therefore keeping its eye on the ball. While the industry might not be one that is prime for investment, QCOM management has certainly given us faith that when 3G phones are targeted for rollout - and the majority of phones need replacement - QCOM will certainly be one of the companies that will benefit the most.--Brian Bolan, Briefing.com
Briefing.com is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Symbol=US:QCOM&Feed=Bcom&Date=20030724&a...
Briefing.com reports beats by $0.03
16:04 ET Qualcomm beats by $0.03, guides in line (QCOM) 36.25 +0.01: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.33 per share, ex items, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.30; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $891.3 mln. Company sees EPS of $0.27-0.29 vs consensus of $0.29.
QCOM usually preannounces when they are doing well. Examples are 4Q02 (Sep 19), and 3Q02 (Jun 21). Their accounting is good. They only reaffirm when there are excessive rumors.
However, they often suprise on their forecasts.
Raging Bull Laugh
I just went for my weekly Raging Bull check and saw the following:
QCOM $37.32 13.53 56.87% 24.81 10,328,357
Do they know something I don't? I'll take a daily return like that any day. OR -- anyone know where I can get those $24.81 shares? While my charts show quite a few "out of sequence" trades yesterday, nothing like $24.81!
RB board real slow too. Only showing 8 messages at a time. Dying. Guess I'll send in a complaint (I pay for other Lycos services)
Noise From Phone Can Chase Mosquitoes
[Note this is from CDMA phones. BREW?]
The Associated Press
Thursday, July 10, 2003; 8:41 AM
SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea's largest mobile phone operator said Thursday that it will offer cell phone users a new noise service that it says will repel mosquitoes.
SK Telecom Co. said subscribers can pay 3,000 won (US$2.50) to download a sound wave that is inaudible to human ears but annoys mosquitoes within a range of three feet. Customers can then play the sound by hitting a few buttons on their mobile phones.
The company claimed that the service worked during tests.
The service, which begins Monday, has one drawback: it consumes as much battery power as normal cell phone rings.
SK Telecom has 17 million subscribers and controls a little over 50 percent of the domestic market.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37000-2003Jul10.html
That matches the estimate at Briefing.com (subscription) based on last qtr's Mar 23 release (i.e., not much thought, add 3 months). Now, in the past QCOM has sometimes moved the date after the release date to make sure the data was good according to the latest accounting standards (couple of days), so don't be suprised if it moves back a few days.
As for me, I predict interesting times. But nothing like when the multi-mode chip finally hits the market (AMPS, CDMA, GSM, and full digital) (what, no NMT? er, dying standard). India and China are likely to be the news too.
Samsung Electronics bans camera phones from key factories
Mon Jul 7, 4:02 AM ET
SEOUL (AFP) - Samsung Electronics, the world's largest memory chip maker, said that it will restrict the use of camera phones at key factories and research centers to preclude industrial espionage.
The move comes amid concerns about the misuse of camera phones, which have become part of daily life in South Korea, one of the world's most advanced wireless markets.
People use the devices to e-mail photographs to friends but security experts have warned that camera phones could be used for industrial espionage. Fears about their use by pornographers have also been voiced.
"The use of camera lenses in mobile phones will be restricted at some semiconductor and telecoms factories as well as research and development centers," a Samsung Electronics official told AFP.
Samsung Electronics, the world's third largest handset maker, will allow visitors and factory workers to bring camera phones into factories only after their lenses were covered with a plastic sticker, he said.
"Such restrictions reflect our concerns about technology leakage and privacy," the official said.
Camera phones are now used widely in South Korea to e-mail photographs.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1509&u=/afp/20030707/tc_afp/skorea_samsung_it_com...