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Wikipedia has a good write up on Carbon Credits, but I'll try to give you an idea.
The educated world has enough respect for scientific consensus that they have decided to attempt to tackle global warming. The Carbon Credit system is an attempt to place a market value on the emission of 1 ton of CO2. If a company exceeds their preset limit for c02 they are required to purchase Carbon Credits to offset their emissions or face a monetary penalty. Under this system an entity can setup projects that pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and receive payment for this service from large polluters.
In the US we have the option of purchasing these credits in order to please consumers. In other countries companies are actually required to purchase credits. Carbon credit financing is relatively new and the market is confusing to say the least, but it does mean a small company in Africa can plant X number of trees, reducing Co2 by X number of tons, for x millions of dollars every year.
There are some interesting dynamics taking place with Carbon Credits. In 2008 many companies sold off credits to gain short term capital to maintain operations during the recession. Many believe that this has left many companies short on credits they would have otherwise retained. Which in theory should drive up the value of the Carbon Credit. Secondly, the liberal wing of the United States is pushing to adopt Carbon Credits to help offset the absurd amount of Co2 we pump into the air.
Does that help?
How high can SGCP go in 1 year?
The purpose of this analysis is to determine the highest possible return in 1 year for SGCP. I started with the largest estimate I could find for SGCP projected earnings. I found an Etrade estimate for 2012 of .79 Earnings per share. I compared this with 6 other mining stocks GFI,NEM,TRE,NXG,AUY,CDE.
So, I am sorry to say that I can't see SGCP exceeding 25.00 in one year. Based on a 25 dollar ceiling, a one thousand dollar investment at .005 will not exceed 5 million dollars in one year.
Thanks. I think I've spent enough time on the risks and analysis. I think it would be fun to try and estimate a possible reward. Since, a share holder is always going to be bias; I think we should establish the highest, most outrageous, possible return in a set time frame. Don't be afraid to suppose dividends, buyouts, carbon credit/gold up trends, and lastly the growth potential as a farm production entity. We could literally branch into any market with major capital and zero competition. SGCP could start up a phone company if they wanted.
So, just for the fun of it what is the limit for SGCP in 7 years?
The low volume reduces the significance of any trend. The volume continues to decrease with the price. I think we've been watching the same 30mil shares knocking around. It's still worth at least .0075 in my mind. Now, if 100mil get dumped at half that I'll start worrying, but so far we've been watching paint dry for two weeks. The stability of the price has actually been rather impressive.
It is kind of funny that we just take for granted we're sitting on a pile of gold. Isn't that usually the issue for mining speculation? I've never questioned that this is the ideal location to start a profitable gold mine. Our concern is financing the golds extraction. Usually this requires a group with deep pockets and we're getting it interest free from across the world. So, we have a group of people that are impatiently waiting for millions of dollars of free money to dig up all the gold; that we already know is there.
The only reason I'm not selling off personal property to buy more is basically just in-principle. I quit trying to tell people about it, because they don't believe me. SGCP is a bar of gold wrapped in a red flag. Once, the first cent of CC financing is confirmed there is no where to go but up. SGCP is certified to sell and the EU is committed to buy and specifically to buy from Africa.
Brief Review:
We have determined that SGCP is not a scam, because of it's long standing history and its association with the UN. It's not a pump and dump, because we spend most of the time waiting for news; instead of pouring over the constant PR that is necessary to sustain a true pump. It has been determined that the carbon credit projects exist and are for sale. We have determined that projects of this nature have been purchased in the past for prices that are consistent with the posted estimates. Todays news confirms that funding for the purchase of these projects exists and has been publicly declared. Right now, we have all the necessary information to conclude that the carbon sale is highly plausible in the near future. Once we take the step from speculation to realization the share holder value will reflect the difference between speculation and material wealth. Right now it is an idea that sells for around .005 share. A reality will prove to be much more lucrative. My money is safe with SGCP.
Europe exceeds target for climate aid to poor nations
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/europe-exceeds-target-for-climate-aid-to-poor-nations/story-e6frf7jx-1225809563409
Really, why can they neither confirm or deny a sale? And why are sure they can not pass this information?
Oh. So, SGCP is already talking to CC buyers. Well, that was quick.
I think I misread the report. My first impression was that SGCP had received inquires from share holders about the CC projects. Now, I think I understand it to mean they have received inquires from potential buyers. Can anyone clarify this matter?
News that the Carbon Credit project had been posted for forward selling.
Can anyone produce a timeline for CC sales?
I've searched around and it is hard to find data on Carbon Credit sales and averages. I can't determine how long it would take to forward sell a large CDM project. I am sure it happens and I've found brief references to the UN setting up a grant for African credits. So far it looks like we should see carbon credit money sometime between next week and 2012. The EU is willing to purchase African CC up to 2020 at least, so that lowers the risk compared to a 2012 deadline. Can anyone offer a better estimation in this regard - I'm running in circles looking for data.
Market activity continues to grow with African carbon offsets emerging as the season's "must have" Sept 2009
http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/analysis/2250360/weekly-cdm-ver-market-summary
How should I interpret the low volume?
http://www.cdmbazaar.net/repo/sellers/seller-248133862
SGCP is involved with Green Giant Venture Fund which finances and organizes carbon credit projects. I believe the first project listed is the SGCP project.
The fact GGVF is moving ahead with future projects with SGCP indicates to me they have weighed the risk and believe SGCP is capable of earning CC revenue. I think the timeline for sales is difficult to pin point. Based on my research it is one of the largest single projects currently on the market. I wouldn't expect a transaction of this nature to take place without some due process. So, the wait we are experiencing is consistent with a multi-million dollar transaction.
My main unknown is in regard to the estimates listed by GGVF; I'm not sure how many years the total CC value is projected across. I would conservatively - estimate the first sales at 40million to be divided evenly between GGVF and SGCP. A significant part will go to the actual CC project leaving a portion to invest in new mining equipment. However, this portion of 20million is an extreme influx of capital considering the operating cost filed in 2008. Once, the first project is on the books, then the larger 2nd and 3rd projects can be considered very likely to occur.
On another note- where are all the buyers? I think SGCP suffers from multiple stigmas that are keeping investors at bay. First, it's a pink sheet which is known to be statistically risky. Second, it is a gold + diamond mine which in the past has been the choice storyline for scams. Third, it's to good to be true and no one wants to be made a fool. I can understand the caution and the excitement. However, once beyond the cover story you'll find a history and one must consider that SGCP itself isn't dumping new shares onto the market to grab short term capital, so if it was a pump or scam it would have obvious two weeks ago.
Based on my critical review, I expect SGCP to generate very significant revenue from the Carbon credit sales. The carbon credit itself is relatively secure at least till 2012. The fact SGCP intends to reinvest in mining instead of relying just on credits is a good hedge in favor of future stability.
Have they proven an ability to access Gold? Yes.
Are they working within a stable government? Yes.
If they were producing gold with shovels and pans, then I would expect them to produce more gold with access to sophisticated equipment. The "rainy season" I imagine also acts as a natural mining advantage, because new earth is uncovered every year naturally. After weeks of digging through the facts I have found myself more confident in this companies near-term prospects. I think the recent trading is due to those that bought SGCP solely because it had a nice chart. I would remind all that this stocks current value is news driven and not trend driven. No news means it's holding based just on past PR and updates. New news will prove the valid nature of these observations.
To those that bought; well done.
News from Sept. 2009, in regards to the largest carbon credit sale.
Forests carbon credit sale world's biggest...
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/73407/forests-carbon-credit-sale-world039s-biggest
It is in regard to a New Zealand company, but it provides good precedent for the SGCP expectations.
Thank you for the response. I didn't know the CDM did not publish information about the deals taking place. The GGVF is a private company so it makes sense there would be a lack of public information in regard to their sales/profits etc. According to various references the process of certification is normally the largest obstacle to CC transaction. So, the element that would indicate the highest risk of a CC financing obstacle is already taken care of if my understanding is correct.
Are Carbon Credits bought and sold daily?
At what volume?
http://www.cdmbazaar.net/view_search_results?query=Green+Giant
Then you should explain why the cdm lists them as a seller.
Alright, I'm looking at GGVF website. http://www.greengiantventurefund.com/about_us
They sure have some big numbers under these projects. Has anyone found any evidence of this company actually selling a carbon credit? To anyone ever?
I agree eye. If carbon credit cash is realized, then it will give more weight to the remaining CC projects. So, it will be a battle of nerves till a PR with some real numbers. I'd expect to see the stock continue trading sideways till we get some news. I'm willing to acknowledge that SGCP is not a scam or P/D. If an investor is willing to take a risk on a pink sheet, then this is a reasonable investment.
Alright, so our current "doomsday scenario" would be a loss of CC funding followed by a dilution. Well, if GGVP was expecting a loss in CC revenue, then they wouldn't be investing in future projects at a significant cost to themselves. So, if the seller is still projecting success it all hinges on the CC market stability, which is looking better if not stable. A carbon credit is basically a concept. You can't have a bucket of Carbon Credits. However, considering the Kyoto treaty is at a mid-term with a turn around in global recession possible - I think it would be unlikely to see a decline in CC value. So, how late can the next press release be until you get nervous? I bet it's not to far off. Right?
Cool, you answered my main question.
It's not a pump and dump model, because it has been on the market for too long. So, now I have a reason to think it isn't a P+D. Thanks. Anyone disagree in regards to the conclusion?
My reasoning was simple; since we own this stock we have a bias perspective. In order to keep a balanced approach to the matter I suggested taking a critical look at the stock. If indeed it is as good as we think, then we won't be able to produce many scenarios for the stocks decline. I'm already in, so my concern now is to verify my decision. I've already spent my time calculating my future fortunes, so now, I say we look for mistakes or errors in our analysis.
So far some one suggested a massive split would cripple this stock. It is unlikely, but not impossible. If there are other plausible risks to take into account then I believe we should. You can't just look for what you want to see in order to determine the truth of the matter. And all this positive talk makes the stock look like a pump. If people saw some one asking and answering the tough questions, then this board might be a realistic tool instead of an Ad.
SGCP looks like a pump, because it was back in 2007. People have already lost plenty and it was just circling the bowl until this new financing information became available. Ask the tough questions and lets build a foundation based on reason and not hype.
News regarding SGCP moving to a 1 or 2 was in a credit rehab advertisement. If your broke you shouldn't be buying pink sheets period. So, our best recent news is in an artcle for suckers. I like hearing that I will be filthy rich with zero efford, but I'll believe it when I'm counting zeros. I'm just young enough to afford a risky investment and if this one tanks I'm done with pennys. It's my one spin of the wheel. So, lets be honest about the high risk implied by the history and otc reputation for turning poor people into poorer people.
Go SGCP!!!
Just for the sake of being objective; I'd like to see a critical review. In a purely hypothetical sense what would it take to kill this stock and how would we know.
1. Gold becomes worthless.
2. 2,500 scientist change their mind about GW.
3. Every country withdraws from Kyoto at the half-way point.
4. Africa sinks into the Atlantic.
5. Doug gets hooked on meth.
Anymore?
Snapshot - Earnings.
Actually, GGVF has a posted estimate for the CC value in Brazalian currency. If you convert that to USD and divide by 50%, then 40 million isn't actually out of the ball park.
Etrade has a earnings estimate for 2012 at .79 per share. Where is this number coming from?
The highest volume 200mil day saw an average around .007, so the support for this stock is pretty hard to beat.
Watching this chart crawl is getting me nutty. I've never seen any thing like the obsession people have over this stock. Once we have confirmed cash flow from the CC sale it's off to the moon. We already have the credits, that's a done deal. It's just a matter of the credits being sold and our seller has a 50/50 stake in getting it done. I bet it has already happened and they're just sitting on the news in order to provide a comprehensive field report along with the big bang. If GGVF can't sell credits it wouldn't invest time and money in developing projects. So, it's really a matter of waiting for the numbers to come out.
Most of my friends knowledge of Sierra is based on that Blood Diamond movie that came out in early 2k. People don't realize that they have a stable democratic government now. I sold off my Microsoft to buy into this ride. So, I'm in as deep as I'm willing to risk. I have done 30+ hrs of research and everything I can find confirms the legit nature of SGCP and their CC fund partners GGVF. GGVF was the hardest to research. Americans don't have a cap and trade yet, so they don't understand the value of a carbon credit. If it gets more support it will cut loose.
If we do not sell down; the price does not go down. One for ALL!!!
People don't trust anything this cheap. An African gold mine getting ready to get massive financing without any debt....sounds to good. Gold and diamonds have historically been scams and speculations. This stock looks like it was a pump in 2007, but now it will actually get proper financing without a dilution. It really could only happen under these particular circumstances. SGCP is either the most elaborate pump ever or a money bomb waiting to go off.
..and I hear ticking.
I don't really want to influence the company. I was proposing that we drive up demand by agreeing to hold to a certain level as a group. I'm sure people will look out for their own interests, but to simply get SGCP really moving through the penny marks, maybe a group organized casually can cooperate. Mainly, just a wild idea, but I wanted to see if it had any merit.
Yeah, I was wondering if there was a way for mutual cooperation to take place in order to drive up demand. If hypothetically, we represent 25% of the company share holders and we agree to hold to a certain level, then the demand will increase for at least a short period. If everyone here would hold till say .013, then we might give it a boost on top of the influx of new buyers. Really, get it on the radar.
I'll put my 1/4 Mil. On hold till at least .013.
Suppose we acted together?
We have in effect a loose organization of investors. Suppose a 25% share of the company is collectively represented by the individuals on this website. Can anyone offer a plausible scenario that could benefit the group here?
I think the only problem with SGCP is the current price versus the possible returns. I'm in for the long haul, but I simply can't believe it will actually work. Because, it is to good to be true. However, until I can find evidence that this company won't succeed I can't sell. I bought for a flip, but now I can't risk selling considering the possible gains. They've been mining with minimal finance since 2006.
I think someone needs to explain the exchange rate we're getting in Africa. A million dollar investment in the US is not the same as a million dollar investment in Sierra Leone. Whats does a loaf of bread cost in West Africa?
I've have a question about SGCP.
Why are they located in Canada and Incoroporated in Nevada. An accountant in New York and a Lawyer in Florida. There is nothing wrong with it, but I am curious as to why.