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The current valuation difference between HK and US is too great to ignore.
I often wondered how difficult for any US listed company like CCME to dual-list in Hong Kong market. Any link to such company example or regulartion etc ?
Has CCME been advised to take steps of dual listing in HK via some tier 1 banker? I think this would be better offense measure than many others discussed: share buyback, tender offer, verify bus# via third party and wait for 10k stamped. Current bear condition in CGS space can linger quite a while. Dual listing in HK would re-establish confidence and unlock CCME's value in capital market in big way.
So this company was sold to the public for a price of $47MM/11MM = 4.27 per share. That's a little too close to 2011 EPS for my taste.
CCME - Could this be the reason for CEO's huge earn-outs, though they are based on make-good targets ?
Indeed. This is very expensive contigency for CCME to bear if found in fraud. It covers ALL three years. If MW were right about 2009 17m REVENUE and 0 profit, it would mean that $343m payment to Stars.
I wish our investor's right is this strong.
Excellent point. 20% of outstanding shares will not bankrupt Cheng zheng. But unlikely something some "pump-and-dump" guy will do for 3 year term.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1399067/000114420410002409/v171261_8k.htm
The Founding Stockholders will be required to pay certain Performance Adjustment Amounts to Starr in the event the Company’s audited consolidated net profits (“ACNP”) for 2009, 2010 or 2011 are less than US$42,000,000, US$55,000,000 and US$70,000,000, respectively (each, a “Profits Target”). The Performance Adjustment Amount payable in any of 2009, 2010 or 2011 will be a fraction of US$343,462,957 proportionate to the amount by which the Company’s ACNP in such year falls short of the then applicable Profits Target. The Performance Adjustment Amounts will be payable in cash or stock, but only to the extent such stock, together with the shares of Common Stock acquired or acquirable as a result of Starr’s ownership of the Purchased Shares, the Purchased Warrants and the Transferred Shares, will not exceed 19.9% of the total number of shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding as of the date of the Purchase Agreement.
PR for AAPL probably is an effort to cover the base for fair disclosure. IMO. They don't want people call Jacky get unfair advantage..
#6 Focus Media Co., Ltd. Fujian
Should be "Fujian Focus Media" old company name for China Media Express (CCME).
Attached is the newest Top 100 outdoor advertisement supplier in China with top 10 award for each category (published in 2011/1/26). CCME is listed under the category of "Top 10 Special Channel Media supplier". (bottom category, the second to the last, order does not have importance) Other company in the same category do not appear to be competitors to CCME.
http://www.cnadtop.com/news/nationalNews/2011/1/26/16db29c6-5e58-4bed-be1a-0b8daacadb34.htm
Apparently CCME is in its own niche! For any research of outdoor advertisement, CCME's niche is still under the radar until they are too big to ignore.
CCME VS FMCN
The list that have CCME and FMCN on the same list is based on 2009 top 100 revenue (Media service Category) CCME is #9, FMCN is #1
http://www.cnadtop.com/news/vision/2010/8/2/578d5f78-6a1a-4ff3-aa7e-d6bf2fcd55d0_2.htm
top 100 revenue (Outdoor advertisement Category) CCME is #6, FMCN is #1, #13 is Towana
http://www.cnadtop.com/news/vision/2010/8/2/578d5f78-6a1a-4ff3-aa7e-d6bf2fcd55d0_3.htm
Top 100 revenue (traditional TV, newspaper media company)
http://www.cnadtop.com/news/vision/2010/8/2/578d5f78-6a1a-4ff3-aa7e-d6bf2fcd55d0.htm
With so many companies having higher revenue#, it is obvious that CCME is far from noticeable. But 2010's revenue will certainly put them into spotlight, probably #4 or #5 in both list above.
How can Citron not look at these readily available information ??
This exhibition answered questions about DSO, recent dilution and bank credit.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/817129/000114420410065492/v205038_ex99-1.htm
It takes our customers about three months to approve their budgets for the new calendar year, plus another three months for construction to take place. Once construction is completed, we expect our days’ sales outstanding to average about 180 days, which is typical in China.
This presentation (slide 8) has their typical payment cycle.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/817129/000114420410049183/v196565_ex99-1.htm
The worst scenario for the whole payment
9month*0.65+12month*0.25+24month*0.1=11.25 month or 337 days
The best scenario for the payment
4month*0.65+9 month*0.25+ 12month*0.1 = 6.05 month or about 181 days
So their current DSO situation is closer to the worst side (on aggressive side hence their super growth) However market has more than discounted this in its current PPS and punished it to PE for less than 4 at this time.
Fidelity has no problem to get it for non-IRA account for $100 charge. Wonder if your account is IRA.
Full ViewRE: TSTC plunge
From: John Harmon <john.harmon@ccgir.com>View Contact
To: xxx
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Thank you. We're working on it.
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From: xxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2011 9:17 PM
To: wupeidong@telestone.com
Cc: John Harmon; Bryan Blake
Subject: TSTC plunge
What's company IR reaction to the hit piece today
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/telestone-technologies-< a> style='background-color:yellow;'>tstc-rino-sheeps-clothing ?
These guys are so vicious in attacking good company. You must be very serious about them.
Regards,
They won't buy any to avoid unneccesary litigation, at least within 90 days because they are still liable for filing 13D, 13G etc.
Next test of "shareholder of record" is at first day of fiscal year, that is 1/3/2012.
If ENHD monitors actively of increasing shareholders of record, they can easily counterattack this strategy with reverse split with cash payout for fractional shares.
I understand your anxiety just like I have been.
It used to show which MM bids and asks on this site. Now its all gone.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ENHD/quote
Right hand side shows it still has Pink current info because they filed Q3. When it turns to limtied or no information in next 90 to 6 month without any news, report from ENHD. Where do you think stock is going to be?
For the best interest of shareholders, the first step is to make them communicate via SEC. No talk, do not gamble.
I consulted a attorney friend. Here is how we can force ENHD back to list and report.
1. Ask brokerage to take physical possesion of existing ENHD stock.
2. Gift a few shares to friends/family for a favor.
3. Buy few shares to help the course.
Let board know how many you did. we need only about 130+ to get over 300.
As long as a security meets the technical requirements for form 15 (the key being less than 300 stockholders of record), it can deregister its shares. As far as I can tell, it looks like ENHD meets the requirements. No stockholder vote is required.
The problem is that most brokerages hold their customers shares in street name. That means that each brokerage that holder shares on behalf of its customers in street name only counts as 1 stockholder of record. So ENHD may have substantially more than 300 stockholders assuming the beneficial owners were counted. So to answer your question, the best strategy to derail ENHD's plan would be for each individual stockholder to instruct its broker that such stockholder wants to take physical possession of his or her ENHD stock. Assuming there are more than 300 beneficial owners, ENHD would then be unable to deregister.
As a side note, a group of new stockholders could each buy 1 share in their own name (i.e. instruct their broker not to hold it in street name) to derail ENHD's plan. The rule is once you have over 300 stockholders, you cannot deregister and must file periodic reports.
All ENHD shareholders or aspiring longs need to file complaints to SEC, IMO.
http://www.sec.gov/complaint.shtml
The more complaints we send to SEC, the more likely SEC will investigate and deny their FORM 15 or intent to delist to cheat on shareholders. As long as ENHD still play by the rule, they will eventually have to settle this.
Govenment is slow so we need to move quickly on this front. They have to file Q4/10K within 60 days after FORM 15 is denied.
Wonderful news at right time!
However now we have a potential issue with CFO doing insider trading.
how did you interpret today's form D ?
what's the base for each share ? I don't see it mentions how many units they have sold.
Each unit consists of four shares of common stock; a three-year warrant to purchase one share of common stock at an exercise price of $ 3.60 per share, and a three-year warrant to purchase one share of common stock at an exercise price of $4.80 per share
Total Offering Amount $ 5000000 USD o Indefinite
Total Amount Sold $ 2499994 USD
Total Remaining to be Sold $ 2500006 USD o Indefinite
I notice the similar. However CCME is more likely to move closer to FMCN quicker than UTA to CTRP for several reasons IMO.
1. CCME likely to have better institutional support
via possible divi policy, MS endorsement in next several months.
2. CCME likely to gain more retail mo-mo support
Just look at how many messages posted when things go well. It will zoom quickly.
3. CCME margin is much higher than UTA. Cash generating rate is faster. UTA's EPS growth is from aquisitions. When they do aquisition via dillution of their equity in the past, it spooked investors quite bit.
All in all, both are good picks. CCME has some edges for 2011.
I read several times and get a feel that special committee tried to conclude that nothing serious has been found except 2 evidence of background issues. Action items are left to investors to decide since management or special committee say anything they will do. This is very close to what I have expected.
If SGZH is cheaper than PUDA, LLEN, how about CHGY at PE less than 4 for TTM ? CHGY is ready for reverse split uplisting and it has HCI as IR. Where is SGZH's IR ?
Of course there is concern about what CHGY will aquire and any implication for dilution. In balance, I liks CHGY is better coal play than SGZH.
Normally are weak longs and traders when volumes are low and no news. Typical human nature. ENHD will move very strongly when positive news break out.
My picks with short reasoning and low target
ENHD.OB: low PE,PB,PS, stable margin, Best risk/reward prospect in 2011 Target at lest 6-10
FEEC.OB: Great potential speculatively. Runup may occur in 2012. Eventual target 3-20. 2011 target 1.5-3.
HFGB.OB: high EPS growth potential. Target 1.47 PE=7
CGPI.OB: low PE, stable/high margin. target 8.7 PE=6.
UTA: Stable margin, very cheap comparing peer. target $12
LPH: production ramp-up. target 4.55
CCME: Boards favorite. high margin. ROE. target 25-50
CKGT.OB: Revenue growth is there, may eventually reflect on EPS
target 2
BSPM: high growth/high margin, low PE. target 7
CHGY.OB: Good position in Coal/Inner Mongolia. uplist soon.
Depending on aquisition choice, it may runup quickly in H1. target 5-7
Agreed. My low target is about $12 with 12 month.
If it can get Agoda/Priceline thing working, it will surely fly quickly.
Got this link from HOGS yahoo board. Looking at tab "pork price on china swine". hog, pork price all going up. The hog/corn, hog/meal ratio is much favorable for pig farmer. It will make ENHD's pig supply issue less an issue.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AuQXzjs0IF8adEpoTnh3ZTY4ejhTYUV5SmV0U1ZxeXc&hl=en&gid=5
Also look at
http://www.chuminggroup.com/en_Industry.asp?Tid=15
http://www.chuminggroup.com/Industry.asp?Tid=15
They are capable of getting 1 million pig base.
Chuming is #1 in Daliang covering 50% market place. I can't believe pig supply shortage (Q3) is more than a tactical issue.
I have similar speculation: they try to maximize profit for the whole group. As long as they have enough hogs for ENHD for Q4, we will have very good Q4 and whole year.
Here is the fact: They buy less hogs from group and much much more from stockbreeder. If you look at Q3 vs Q2 related party payable amounts 89m balance due to stockbreader for buying hogs. Compare the number to Q2 and balance due for buging hogs from the group. It is highest in ENHD history.
Steve, I notice the AR increase as well. They got bank loan easily(similar to TSTC, which is extreme)
No matter how you spin it, it is very undervalued in the rough. It reminds me CHGY in their Q3 last year. similarly "disappointing" and a lot of doubt. It will shine in its due time. This is not the type for mo-mo trader but suits me well.
BSPM, Just finished listening CC. Couple positives
1) Oct revenue is 8.9m, Nov is better. So they are on track to reach guidance of 28m for Q4 and 80m for 2010.
2) Ad spending will be in line of 20-22% Rev normal around 4m for Q4
3) Plan for Big 4 auditor in 2011.
4) Guidance for 2011 will be in next several months(?) rough guidance is 30%.
5) Addressed low interest issue(raised by shorties). Only 25% real money sitting in the bank to collect low national rate.
6) Pharmaceutical companies including BSMP will not be impacted by high inflation etc.
Anyone hear differently ? PPS should recover some...
you are right. Q4 should be very good.
ENHD has 800,000 hogs commitment from the group for 2009,2010,2011. They record minimum commitment from the group for remainder of the year. By calculating the difference, one can get the actual hogs they got from the group each Q. With numbers from 10Q, I calculated actual hogs ENHD got from the group per quarter in past 2 years,
Q reporting, Hogs from group
2009 Q1, 141,852
2009 Q2, 135,354
2009 Q3, 397,970
2009 Q4, 124,824
2010 Q1, 133,265
2010 Q2, 158,693
2010 Q3, 123,531
2010 Q4, 260,980 (estimate)
From Above, one can easily see the anomoly for 2009 Q3 and slightly lower number of 2010 Q3. This shapes up well for a good Q4.
From 2009'10k, Their total hogs purchased are 1.2 million, 2/3 is from the group, 1/3 is from the farmer. So the portion from the group is significant.
UTA, Beat analyst estimate by 1 cent
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=UTA+Analyst+Estimates
But looking at projected next year EPS. Forward PE at 3.91. Comparing CTRIP, ELONG etc. I think it is fair to reward a PE 7-8. We should see UTA above $10 in twelve month.
Also, DYP is running up fast. next year PE under 3. Someone in yahoo says they got an auditor now. If their number can be trusted, it is even better bet.
We wait for further indication from management on the use of cash, including a potential dividend policy. We believe a dividend distribution would certainly help unlock the remaining value for shareholders and could serve as the next catalyst for the stock.
Luo Ping's assessment is very fair in my opinion.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Downgrades/Global+Hunter+Securities+Downgrades+China+MediaExpress+(CCME)+to+Accumulate/6088243.html
Global Hunter Securities downgraded China MediaExpress (NASDAQ: CCME) from Buy to Accumulate.
The firm states, "China MediaExpress (CCME) reported strong Q3 results that beat our/consensus estimates, driven by continued network expansion and favorable margin mix. The company generated strong operating cash flow and further strengthened its balance sheet with $170MM in net cash by quarter end. Management raised its FY10 net income guidance. We are increasing our FY10 and FY11 estimates. Shares are trading at 8x our FY11 EPS estimate, which we still consider as inexpensive. However, shares have rallied 180% from its bottom since September, and exceeded our previous price target of $21. We expect some profit taking after this substantial rally. We wait for further indication from management on the use of cash, including a potential dividend policy. We believe a dividend distribution would certainly help unlock the remaining value for shareholders and could serve as the next catalyst for the stock. However, given the appreciation in shares, we are lowering our rating from Buy to Accumulate while raising our 12-month price target from $21 to $24, representing 9x our updated FY11 EPS estimate."
Shares of China MediaExpress closed at $21.25 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $7.58-$20.10.
RBS & MS should start coverage soon
Why no analyst from them ask any question in CC ?
HAO actually outperformed SP500 by large margin. The laggard is US-listed small caps as a whole. but ECSC is rising very fast for past 6 weeks. This shows how the board collectively did very good job in picking good stocks.
http://www.fixyou.co.uk/screen_ecsc.php
More importantly, ECSC's 162 has topped 52week high of 160. This means we are ready for the next leg up.
Compare CCME with TSTC last year run-up. CCME today's action is equivalent to TSTC run from 12 to 14 or 14 to 17. Both has very high volumes. CCME will pause some and continue its run to the early next year if history repeats.
Today's news FSIN going to private (similar to HRBN), together with FSIN's president Wenbin Wong is on board of ENHD. Is it possible for ENHD go private at this point? I would if I were Mr.shi. In fact it would make more sense for Chuming to go private first, then list in HK or China market.
Look at how much US market have given the best multiple to HOGS and OINK, compare to what China and HK market would give to Shaunghui and Yurun. See the the old PPT (page 20).
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766659/000114420408011578/v104808_ex99-1.htm
For past 3 years, the difference between the two markets are 2x and gettign worse for Chuming. What is the point of doing RTO or even IPO in US?
Just looked over the list of shareholders again. Interestingly, Pinnacle Fund has exact same address as Westlake Capital LP (#3 on the list http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48049734 ). I suspect it is a company that Barry controls as well. So we have up to 2.4 millions share for sell.
Check out http://www.fixyou.co.uk/screens.php for a whole bunch cheaper than CKGT in trailing or forward PE level. Adjusted with risk, I like ENHD, CGPI better than CKGT, which was one of my holding but can't project their EPS growth reliably without more transparency from the company.
I regard CKGT as the cheapest Chinese microcap I am aware of