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frankly Roundabout I'm surprised by the response to the bullish news. I believe this is down to the amount general market goosing that is going on right now. the big boys are waiting for the market to correct before getting back in.
I see this issue across the resource sector.
looks like an Western island Top formation. that's a downer.
whether it goes to the blue line or completes the H&S formation is to be seen.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p76285777523&a=246134003
i've stepped out.
TT,
can't reply to your private message. So I will say here. TA is only an indicator along with the other indicators. Saying that drill results will over come bad TA (even TA that isn't yet in play) assumes a lot.
we'll see.
M
didn't say it was going to happen dear boy - just people need to watch out for it.
unless you know the results already... then enough said.
better safe then sorry.
Daily chart on AOI is now forming a Head and Shoulders formation. this this is bearish.
for the formation to complete AOI needs retrace back to 840 ish and then break lower. if this were to happen then the target would be 700.
see attached chart. remember the formation only comes into play when AOI breaks 840.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13108641541&a=246134003
goldman provide an unparalleled service!
to themselves.
c & h - very bullish, but we are not there yet! we need new localised highs. probably on drill results.
http://tickerreport.com/banking-finance/102149/africa-oil-downgraded-to-neutral-at-goldman-sachs-group-inc-aoi/
Africa Oil Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (AOI)
latest daily chart (for those that care).
cci 106 held and now we are approaching next resistance on the same cci 106. people should watch here and see what happens. taking some off the table might be a good idea.
today we are at previous resistance point (it gaped up it). my guess is price will continue up to middle median line of the fork around 10.25. that would bring in the resistance on the cci mentioned above.
well see.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98357273410&a=246134003
TA
daily chart suggests bottom's in.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11481434036&a=246134003
on the weekly I stil would have preferred the cci84 to go down to zero but maybe it won't this time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00106095614&a=322442646
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000100564/residents-chase-away-oil-explorer-for-sidelining-them
Residents chase away oil explorer for ‘sidelining’ them
the fun isn't over yet.
Hi Fast,
no way of really knowing, just feed your trades in slowly. the weekly chart suggest it could go lower.
wait for the upward movement/strong buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00106095614&a=322442646
a double bottom would be helpful as would a strong green candle.
if i see something i'll let you know
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84420225657&a=246134003
cci 106 is now in the zone (see bottom of chart) but would like to see cci 21 also hit the trend line. my guess is aoi will hover around this mark for a few days.
obviously it could go lower and cc106 will stay on the trend line. again nibbling is suggested.
daily and weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11481434036&a=246134003
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00106095614&a=322442646
weekly: cup and handle still in play and the rise to 10.60ish fits even better as the second lip of the cup (life imitating art). we are now in the handle. my preference would be to buy off the lowest blue line or when the CCI 84 is around zero (second from bottom).
the shorter and faster the handle the more powerful the breakout at 10.60ish. textbooks say 29% gains are the average from the break.
yes - if you bought mesnf then you need to see mesnf. np
as i have always bought mes and not mesnf I'm not sure how its done.
currently there are 26k at 6 cents candaian - i would assume you are in that mix.
you're trading through mesnf? or mes?
there are also chi-x and the alpha-a exchanges.
mesnf trades through the tsx only. not to mention the exchange rate as well.
trying to break the pitch fork. hmmm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48937575181&a=246134003
cup and handle breakout - might retrace back to previous highs 9.64 tomorrow then off to the races.
typically c&h formation gain 25-35% from here.
so between 12.05 and 13.02.
we'll see.
korpin - its "horse for courses". whilst some of the oil (not all) in NZ needs fracking there is no "country" risk for NZ or the US. recent events for AOI and Tullow demonstrate clear country risk. one needs to remember that Africa is home of nationalisation.
all countries have some risks associated with them - it pays to recognize them.
we have a breakout of sorts - for me next stop 9.64.
then it gets interesting.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64124421494&a=246134003
daily chart look'n pretty good, just need a couple of more days to confirm the up trend. close to over-bought in the near term though - so might hover here for a bit.
we'll see.
maybe i have maybe i haven't
i believe on the 10 December NZ government release the concession winners.
mes is long overdue some news...
another "opinion" from Africa - reads similar to the previous one i posted. but this time its from Deputy Governor Isiolo County.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201311110758.html?viewall=1
thanks gents - no offense taken.
as for 8.15 don't be surprised if its the wider markets taking aoi down. the index's are in bubble territory and a correction is over due.
ps - you look one can see that the c & h formation was in operation previously and you can see the results. each company has its own character and formations tend to repeat themselves.
?? cup and handle is bullish alignment. one could expect 30% over the the recent highs. subjecting to it making the right moves.
you can ignore TA if you like but to brush it side is silly. so far i predicted the drop and let's see what comes next.
Chart thoughts.
looks like cup and handle is so far so good. retracement has started and I would expect it to run to about 8.15ish or further to the lower end of the pitch fork.
blue pitch fork in play is is definite for me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOI.V&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00106095614&a=322442646
interesting read on pipeline development politics
http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28421:tullow-oils-kenya-problems-mirror-wider-regional-hiccup&catid=79:businesstopstories&Itemid=68
good response from Hill. might have been posted already
http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/africa-oil-boss-on-training-local-people-for-jobs-in-industry/31915/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HowWeMadeItInAfrica+(How+We+Made+It+In+Africa)
indeed he must be trying to ride the recent trend of bashing oil co's. its opportune and poorly conceived.
if i was the teacher i would give a d+
interesting piece from kenya - i guess it takes all kinds.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000096593&story_title=energy-law-favours-speculative-activity-in-oil-industry
soon? how soon as I can't wait!
Redinvest re-posted this on NZ thread but worth remembering what TAG said in July on their blog: three key points
http://blog.tagoil.com/
1) “We can't give up too much detail at this stage as there is a critical land sale occurring in New Zealand later this year." key info is being withheld.
2) "We anticipated and encountered extreme overpressures. but probably most important is that there seems to be permeability associated with the zone. "
3) "the seal looks to be working as no shows were seen above the zone." regional seal seems to be place.
all in all 3 reasons to be cheerful. now bring on the news.
-----------------------------
Drew on the East Coast Basin…
“We can't give up too much detail at this stage as there is a critical land sale occurring in New Zealand later this year, bid deadline is September 26, and there are few blocks up for bid offsetting us within the East Coast Basin. But I can tell you, we are extremely proud of the operational job we did in the drilling of our first deep test on the East Coast.
Ngapaeruru-1 was drilled without a hitch in about three weeks. We anticipated and encountered extreme overpressures. We encountered swelling mud stones and a few other nasty drilling obstacles that have been a nemesis of past drillers in this tricky basin. But again, our combination of Kiwi experience and North American technology allowed us to drill our well easily, collect all the critical data we intended to, and not have a single environmental health or safety issue.
The small minority of anti-fossil fuel opposition we had before we spudded the well barely had time to organize a protest before we were gone. The vast majority of our neighbors there, all of the regulatory bodies like local and regional councils couldn't believe what a professional operation it turned out to be. Drilling is new to these people. I think they were expecting wooden derricks and a spindle top blowout or something.
The results of this first well were encouraging, to say the least. In order to keep that over pressuring in check, we took no chances and used extremely heavy mud weights while drilling. Despite that, we went from over 1,000 meters of zero oil and gas shows through the over burden to instantaneous strong shows once we entered our target zone. Those shows continued unabated for 155 meters before they instantly disappeared to absolutely no shows again until TD, and that tells us a couple of things.
Number one, the seal looks to be working as no shows were seen above the zone. The zone itself definitely has hydrocarbons in it, but of course that was expected. We knew these source rocks were working from the quality and quantity of oil and gas seeps in this basin, but probably most important is that there seems to be permeability associated with the zone. That's the only way we would see the shows we did even given the high mud weights we were using.
We collected a lot of core, we shot Schlumberger's logs I've never even heard of before focusing on unconventional parameters and we collected live samples of liberated gas from the drilling mud itself. All of this data is now in various labs, mainly in New Zealand and Australia, where we're working with specialists from around the globe to interpret and plan the next step to be taken with the play, and in particular this wellbore.
What I can tell you is, we would definitely be completing this well, probably not for at least three to four months until we get all the data back from the labs and it's all interpreted, but Ngapaeruru-1 was not a red light, it was not an orange light, it is definitely a green light from what we have seen so far.“
Tullow Oil plc : Tullow Oil suspends work at two Kenya exploration blocks
http://www.4-traders.com/TULLOW-OIL-PLC-9590152/news/Tullow-Oil-plc--Tullow-Oil-suspends-work-at-two-Kenya-exploration-blocks-17398511/
no reason to chase this, so you're the smart money imo
waiting on TAG to produce some drill analysis. should have been a month ago imo so early next month is my guess.
meanwhile, buyers are happy to wait and nibble at around 7 cents.
well said Mr D!
ah ok. that gem.
please do let me know if you see mes discussed and I'll come over.
cheers
hi MrDec,
I was able to find many posts on mesnf. let me know when it is next discussed and i'll come in for a look.
mcb
sorry which board mate?