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I see it as CLBL in my TDA phone app. They did that a while ago though. I think it's a good sign that's callable.
"In any event, the administrators agreed that they would publish a notice to the effect that LBIE had a surplus of assets over liabilities and was now able to pay its debts."
WOW! Thanks for sharing the link Jim. That's the UK case, are we treading on similar ground here?
Cotton : If you only keep responding to your own posts it's makes it difficult to figure out which post you are responding to. I appreciate all your efforts and your DD but I really do wish you actually respond to the posts you are referring to. Not everyone that reads the board here is in tune with the case as much as you are.
Thank you!
We have to keep ourselves entertained Jerseyboi! Life is short and I have already spent a big chunk of it on this board ha ha..
Thank you AZ! Looking forward to the end here as it definitely seems to be heading that way
Thank you BB. As an old timer here yourself, I am sure you have gotten a little cynical like I have. Or should I call it failed optimism?
Too good. I will admit that I am definitely not the smartest cookie in the room. But I can still type without the caps lock stuck in place lol. Always enjoy your posts though!
Neither have my expectations been proven wrong but that doesn't mean anyone here understands all the nitty gritty details of the BK. There is plenty of conjecture on what will happen and when and it seems no one's predictions have actually played out and the history on this board is proof of that There was a time I used to go through the filings and after a few years, felt like I was an expert on Ch11 bankruptcies. Then, life happened and I stopped reading the filings and I rely on smart people's interpretation of the filings and appreciate everyone who posts their DD here.
Not saying you or others on the board don't know what you are talking about but my original post was intended towards how the lawyers have cast a veil on what is really happening behind the scenes. That, I don't think, anyone truly understands. If folks here think they do, more power to them and please keep enlightening the rest of us muggles. Also, tell us when we get paid LoL!
Thanks AZ! Great minds think alike lol!
Let's get to the finish line soon. A few years ago, I was looking forward to the Lehman CT holders get together in Vegas but I feel too old and tired and not sure if I will have the motivation to even go to Vegas if this pays out FV+ future divvies
No one on this board fully understand what is happening. None of our predictions have come to pass.
When something happens, it will. We just have to go with the flow and wait for the lawyers and courts to do their thing. We can guess on what is going to happen but that has been the most exciting part of following this BK and this board for so many years. All the assumptions and guesses and the hope and the disappointment! It's been a wild ride and I sure hope it will end soon but not holding my breath!
I don't think we will get back interest. The reason being they did pay the quarterly interest to the CTs but the monies were diverted to pay the senior creditors in the pecking order from Class 1-9.
Now, it seems like we are close to LBHI emerging out of Ch 11, there is a decent chance that the quarterly dividend gets assigned to the CTs and the monies will be flowing into the CT holders accounts. So, end of the last quarter and going into the new year is the new date I am going to propose we look forward to since that seems to be the case here for the past many years. Someone proposes a new date in the future and everyone gets their hopes up and waits for that date. Now, let's rally around my date of Jan 1st, 2023 LOL!
Is it better to retire the CTs as debt or wait for a few more years for the waterfall to get to the equity equation. Either way, I like our chances here with the CTs. The only challenge is it's not so easy to trade these.
I still think I will wake up one day to see all my CTs redeemed and cash in my account!
A man can hope..
Thank you Jersey. Glad to hear everyone you know are doing well. Most of my friends and family in the central Florida area are fine with not much property damage. Some have lost power but I am yet to get updates from folks that left the west coast before the storm surge. Some are planning to return over the weekend to assess the damage but based on what am hearing right now, it is not going to be pretty. Praying for everyone's family and friends in Florida.
Irma was pretty bad in 2018 and now Ian. It seems like the 9th named storm has been causing more damage in recent past.
It looks to me like the other way around. Class 5 has been satisfied in full and none of the other classes are.
I personally don't think class 10B will see anything from the debt side of distributions as the 'waterfall' will probably not reach us considering all the vultures sitting on top of us in the pecking order. The equity side to utilize the NOLs is my hope. That's what makes the CTs unique is their hybrid debt-equity structure and Dodd-Frank brought about new rules for TruPS after the last financial crisis. These CTs are probably the last of the TruPS that are even in the market right now that are considered Tier 1 and a lot of them have been redeemed methinks.
It's funny that even though for accounting purposes we are Tier 1 debt but haven't seen a dime allocated to us.
Thanks ironman. It's probably their old script as they don't believe in changes. This recent wave of discussions is surely making me paranoid.
Hopefully, this saga is ending soon and we will know if it's Heaven or Hell.
Let's not forget that technically, they have been paying class 10B interest every quarter but that is being reallocated to higher classes as per the plan.
If the plan doesn't exist, then we see a distribution. Also, $10k is not a lot of money split between all the 10B claims.
But in case, we do get the small divi that is in this docket, watch out as that will mean the waterfall is getting to us and there is a good chance for future payout. This will also increase in the trading of the CTs and am expecting a slow and steady climb on the value of the CTs.
Can't wait for next week!
OT: No power because of the hurricane but the fam is safe. Praying for the community in Florida and hoping the damage is not that bad overall. We will all know as the day progresses today.
We might just get that moment in time very soon my CT brothers and sisters!
After all these years Jersey, I'm very skeptical of getting my hopes up. I agree with you that something/anything needs to happen but not holding my breath for it. But still holding my CTs tight ha ha.
When it happens, it will happen. Let's see if it's going to be Oct 4.
NOLs and the Dodd-Frank rule that requires companies to make whole and erase capital trust preferred securities are the two reasons I'm still here.
OT: not looking forward to the hurricane. I come back to Florida after many moons and having to deal with a large scale potential disaster is not something I was expecting, especially almost at the end of hurricane season.
You are right. But they don't have to utilize the NOLs in a single year. Whoever merged with LBHI can drag on the NOLs for years to come and never have to pay a single dime in taxes. Considering a lot of them don't pay a whole lot right now means the potential merger pool is limited. Most likely big banks are the only option.
If they do respond, that will give away a lot of secrets now, wouldn't it lol..
That's true that the tax rate is that high but who actually pays that?
cfodive.com/news/sp-100-companies-pay-20-percent-overall-tax-rate-wallethub/606646/
What is the value on the street for $50B of NOLs? It would be the tax that would be avoided for up to $50B of profits right? With the 15% minimum tax rate for corporations now, this could translate to at least $7.5B in value. If any corporation is paying 30% tax, it would translate to about $15B.
So, the actual value of the NOL is anywhere between the $7.5B to $15B.
Someone correct my math and my assumptions if they are not on track. Thank you!
That is a very interesting question and Argus and I had discussed that a few years ago in detail.
The hypothesis we discussed was based on the volume of trading in all the CTs but never at the same time. We would go for weeks without significant trades but every once in a while, you would see 20k share blocks being traded, usually on only one of the CTs. It looked like 'someone' wanted to accumulate shares without arousing suspicion and they did that over a period of time.
Theory was that the estate would be accumulating all the shares it could so that if the dividends ever got reinstated, the market would push these to face value and then the newco could sell these CTs back on the open market and raise capital in the process. Use the capital for any operations that the newco would get into while simultaneously making use of the NOL would be a win-win.
Theories are theories. Let's see what actually happens next week. Can't wait to see an end to this saga but I don't think anyone knows who owns how much. There was the tally that someone was collecting info for a potential representation and maybe there is a rough estimate on the total number of shares held by peeps on the board. But ultimately, I don't think anyone knows the right answer to your question.
After all these years, I will take 5 in a heartbeat. I was MIA for a few months as I was on sabbatical and embarked on a trip across the globe. Finally back to sunny Florida and returning to a crashing market, about to crash home prices and what seems like a resolution to this 14 year Lehman saga.
Still catching up on posts but the summary I got was that the POR might be done in a week and the plan administrator will cease to exist soon after. I still couldn't tell if there will actually be any recovery for the CTs. $5/share will do and I will take that and go on another sabbatical lol!
I think he posted that as a joke since I asked for clarification.
Almost there bluebird .. almost there. If not, yes, we all go back to work!
I don't think we will get back interest simply because they showed it like they were paying us but the funds got reallocated to senior creditors because of the BK. I will not complain and will be ecstatic if we ever get paid back divvies but not going to hold my breath for that.
Reorganization to utilize the NOLs is my best bet on how we get paid.
Happy St Patty's weekend everyone! Enjoy your Guinness and Jameson and maybe we will be done with this by this time next year! Cheers!
Jersey..hope things have gotten better for you my friend! It seems like we keep spinning our wheels again and again even after all these years. Something will happen this year because it has to. 13 years of BK is too much for any company.
Bluebird..you are an old soul and I can sense it. Thanks for your wisdom and sharing it with the rest of us!
I agree. Can't sell additional shares while in BK. Also, that's why we have the OBS but the CTs trade separately from it.
This precisely is why there will be a recovery to the CTs, something at the very least if what's left. I am hoping all the NOLs.Thanks for the post Cotton.
Swiss.. appreciate everything you do including taking care and humoring/respecting the senior citizens on the board!
I understood everything else you said but got confused by your last sentence. Did your current partners son leave Alvarez and join your former partner at a firm that you were working at before? Please clarify and thank you.
They cannot and will not show assets more than liabilities because the senior classes and creditors will come clawing back for it. Now that gets us closer to the end and I am also on the March bandwagon now after this. After all these years of waiting folks, the end is nigh!
I really do hope that the ECAPS case fails and it is denied. It will only mean more money for the parent entity that they don't have to pay out to Europe. I think that will lead to a much more positive outcome for us, quickly.
But you can surely buy a lot of cheddar with that fiat money. That's why a lot of these folks are selling their souls for some numbers that they like to see go up quickly.
So, the docket will be corrected to include documentation on why Rex Wu is wrong and it will be ordered again by the judge that the case is closed? Is that the right interpretation?
My thoughts exactly. Geez, the older I grow, I realize that corruption is prevalent and rooted everywhere, just in different forms. Now, with crypto, we have arrived at a new era of corruption.
I wonder what changed in a few weeks. Did the judge do some more digging and read up on what the Supreme court ruling actually was? Probably spoke to a few judge friends and asked their opinion?
Or realized that once filed and documented, it cannot be undone and the proof stays there indefinitely. No one wants anything to come back and bite them in the future especially when it is 'intentionally' wrong. Which probably meant it was an intentional decision against Wu in the first place. Corrupt much?
I am not sure if I like this idea of forcing the estate to pay us out at whatever pari passu percentage is for the other equivalent classes. Because if they do that and we see 27% recovery and the CTs are considered 'redeemed', then we have nothing going forward with respect to the NOLs and future shares. Don't take me wrong, I will take the 27% and run but it could be a much bigger payout in a couple of years if the divvies are reinstated and potentially get shares in the NewCo to maximize the NOLs.
Just my 2c but what do I know? The Leh BK continues to confuse my brain continuously! Entropy is constantly increasing..LOL.