There are several posters on this board who could do a wonderful job writing a comprehensive, exhaustive history of the investigations, including an explanation of how the statute of limitations work.

Once the post was written it could be posted in the i-box and used as a reference for people unfamiliar with the history of the investigations or lack a working knowledge of applicable FCPA laws.

This would solve the problem of having to explain the situation over and over to people who are serious about having their questions answered about this issue.

I'm sure I wouldn't be the only one who would be very grateful for the service you would be providing this board.

If you guys want to think Paulson has sweated over making a payroll, go right ahead. The guy has his head so far up his arse he can't...........

If you guys want to think it's smart to plunge into debt right now, go right ahead. I do business on 3 continents and I can tell you no one I know is planning on increasing their exploration. Quite the opposite is happening.

If you guys think it's great news the JMC is forcing the operators to drill in this climate, have at it.

If you think ERHC won't be in a precarious position if Addax goes under, more power to you. I happen to think Anadarko is being their usual a#%@&hole selves. If you are a fan of Sinopec's ability to drill deep, you must love the results India is getting. They have about the same mentality. Disrespect doesn't come close to what I think of those 2 companies.

I only have one thing in common with most of you, I control 7 million shares of the same stock you guys own.

I'm done.

Thanks Gremlin.

>>No one can predict how long the present crisis may last and I must make sure that we get out with no damages.<<

If Addax pays too much over what the price of oil can support, Mr. Gandur knows it could devastate his company.

I think it's a question of when not if Addax gets a ROO. When they land one I don't expect it to spend a whole lot of time in the JDZ. Maybe a couple of wells at the most. Addax has too many irons in the fire in the GOG to commit the rig exclusively to the JDZ.

A few years ago my first impression of Mr. Gandur was that he didn't really know what he was doing. IMO he over paid for what he got in the JDZ. Now however, he is making solid decisions on behalf of his company.

This is comforting for us ERHC'ers because without Addax we would be in a very precarious position.

bsk

>>The people who continue to claim Gandur made some huge mistake by not signing a rig contract when day rates were at their peak don't understand the cyclical nature of the oil and gas business<<

Hey Midtieroil - I think people are starting to get a grasp of the cycles commodities go through. IMO it goes a little deeper than that.

I generally group people into two categories when it involves financial matters......those who have to meet a payroll and those that don't. Or in the case of those working in a large corporation.......those who have a lot of responsibility and those that don't. Usually it's obvious who is who because it shows up in how they think. I personally like to socialize with people in the second group because they are a lot more fun. At parties the first group stands around talking business, they don't really know how to enjoy themselves much. The second group will actually talk about things other than their jobs.

Our not so wonderful Treasury Secretary Mr. Paulson is a glaring example.....he has never met a payroll in his life and now the entire country is paying for his folly. His pedigree in academia is impressive, his real world decisions are a disaster. Mr. Obama has a pot full of academians as his advisors but at least he has some real world guys like Paul Volcker as well.

IMO Addax no longer has the balance sheet to support a credit line of $500 million, but even if they did it wouldn't matter. IMO there is no way in hades that Mr. Gandur would ever take on that kind of debt in this economic climate.

IMO there will come a time when the conditions in the market are right, that he will leverage ALL of Addax's assets and borrow every dime he can get his hands on. The timing just isn't right yet.

There are several truck loads of cow manure that have to hit the fan first.

I would bet money that he is in the process of formulating his game plan for when the market turns. This is going to be a once in a lifetime opportunity for those who are in a position to take advantage of others folly. For those who have the patience and the life span to wait for the conditions surrounding the JDZ to turn, it will be one wild, wild ride. One for the ages.

Maybe even little ol ERHC might be able to pick up some nice assets for little more than a song.

ciao
bsk

>>I just went back and looked at Addax's March 2007 press release<<

I should have read your original post more closely. You are basing your argument on a PR that is almost 2 years old.

IMO it's not fair to hold him to information that is that old.

Isn't it project mgmt 101 that you deal with current information. The world's economies have fallen apart since then.

The whole hydrocarbon dynamic is unrecognizable compared to March 2007.

ciao
bsk

The more plausible explanation is the drillship was a far bigger piece of sh!% than what they thought. If I remember correctly the ship was basically mothballed until they decided to resurrect her. Once the restoration process began in earnest is when they discovered they basically had to rebuild her from the bottom up to get her seaworthy again.

The "before" pictures look like the ship was a rusty piece of junk.

You could probably go back into Addax's PR history and pretty much determine when they were told of the delays. That's when their optimism for the project took a nose dive.

I've never met Mr. Gandur but I can guarantee he made some pretty harsh phone calls. It's probably still a sore subject with him.

Implying that Mr. Gandur is an idiot is way off base. The way he built Addax into the company it is today takes tremendous skill and a lot of hard work. Luck or ineptness had nothing to do with it.

bsk

I strongly believe that the JDZ will one day be wildly prosperous. I believe that one day STP will be a luxurious place to live and it will be a stomping ground for the rich and famous.

Unfortunately for me it will probably be my 13 year old daughter who reaps most of the rewards the JDZ has to offer.

Timing is everything. As the price of oil went up to unsustainable levels, costs also went to those same type of unsustainable levels. Presently with costs where they are, it takes a little less than $70 oil to develop an ultra-deep field. This is why ultra-deep drilling around the globe has started the inevitable process of slowly grinding to a halt.

Drilling costs will react to lack of demand and come down but they always lag the price of oil. The reason is it takes time for supply companies to work through their old expensive inventory. Oil recently has dropped over 70% but costs haven't had time to adust to present realities, but given enough time market forces always prevail.

Just ask the idiots who run Petrobras. They thought they were too big to pay attention to the laws of supply and demand. Now they are paying for their arrogance.

When the price of oil and the costs involved with drilling ultra-deep wells reach equilibrium, drilling will take place in the JDZ. Prsently the JDZ isn't worth much because of where it's located. The JMC would be wise to make decisions based on present realities, not on what was going on last summer.

I think Gandur is doing what he has to do to lead his company through these very dangerous economic times. Just as it's foolish economically speaking for you and me to go out and take on a lot of debt right now, it's just as foolish for Addax to do the same thing.

You may have had your eye on a luxury item like a Cadillac Escalade this past summer, now you're looking at a more penny pinching vehicle such as a Honda Civic. It's just smart economics.

The same holds true for Addax. They may have had their eyes on an ultra-deep drilling program last summer, but now due to forces beyond their control, they are focusing on less expensive options.

Addax has no ulterior motive for their actions, they just want to survive as a company. Addax isn't big enough to be able to survive a couple of wrong decisions, they have to pitch a perfect game so to speak.

The harsh reality is that even if Addax makes perfect decisions, the longer the downturn lasts, the weaker financially they will become because replacing their production will take an ever increasing percentage of their revenues. This means less money available to service their debt, which if it goes on too long will have serious consequences for them.

The good news for us speculators is the worldwide economic downturn is causing exploration to come to a grinding halt. The consequences of this slow down in the long run will be wildly bullish for the JDZ. Once demand for hydrocarbons recovers, the world will find itself in a supply crunch once again. This will cause the JDZ to skyrocket in value, imo to much higher levels than what we've seen so far.

The tough part will be hanging on until then. I hope ERHC conserves as much cash as it possibly can, they are going to need it.

bsk

For those of you who don't want to buy crude oil contracts but want to participate in the crude market, you might want to check out DXO. You buy and sell shares of DXO just like a normal stock but the difference is DXO will reflect the movement in crude.

>>Yeah, it looks like the bottom may have been reached.<<

Maybe, maybe not. The days and weeks immediately following a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas will tell a lot about the direction crude will take.

There is still a lot of supply floating around that has to be worked through for the price to rise too far, but as we all know speculation can override fundamentals for months at a time. Eventually supply and demand will find a balance which is when crude will find its support level.

The gov't of STP was very wise when they advised their citizens to stop expecting oil to solve all their problems. I was pleasantly surprised by their insight concerning the situation they find themselves in.

I hope each one of you had a wonderful holiday season.

Here is an article some of you might find interesting:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html

bsk

The presenters don't have to be fired, that would be throwing the baby out with the bath water.

The solution is really quite simple.....

All that's needed is a little reshuffling of the available talent and a few sessions with an image consultant. Some $2,000 suits and a little hairstyling would work wonders.

From an outsider looking in, the company's best chance of making a great first impression is the lady in the white board picture. Peter Nephte (sp) would be fine except his heavy accent would cause people to tune him out eventually.

The white board lady's responsibilities would be to introduce the audience to ERHC and to give a broad overview of the company.

When the time comes to get to the meat of the presentation she introduces the "talent" and as she stands to one side, the "talent" takes over. When that presentation is over, the WBL again takes over by summarizing in non-technical language what was just presented.

This process continues until the closing. She wraps it up by asking for questions. Each question is deferred to the proper "talent".

This format takes advantage of Mr. Ledbetter's and Mr. Bovell's technical strengths while minimizing their penchant to drag on and on while saying nothing worth remembering. The WBL has what it takes to do this. Put her in a $2,000 suit and give her a bonus with 4 zero's in it and she will dazzle you in Dubai.

When the idiots from Petrobras swept up the 2 rigs away from Addax, this was a real momentum killer for the JDZ IMO....

Addax and therefore ERHC were so sure they were going to get at least one of these rigs they started leaking their plans for the future. Mr. Bovell was brought on board around this time to help bring these plans into being. From what I remember these plans all sounded pretty good to me.

When everything came to a screeching halt both Addax and ERHC had a mess on their hands. I wish they would have come right out and said what it meant to them once they got out bid by the idiots. Instead we were left hanging which caused a lot of people to turn on them.

Getting outbid turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Drilling costs are going to come down in a major way in the next few years so instead of being stuck with a $650,000 price tag, they will acquire one with more reasonable terms.

When the AA finally does land in the JDZ sometime in 2010 I hope Addax still has the financial strength to drill 10 wells. They will drill their 5 for sure, the other 5 are questionable.

It would really work to ERHC's advantage if the company with first dibs on the AA would only drill their first 4 and then give it up. Addax can get the money to drill right now because they are still selling their oil for a pretty good price, but who knows what kind of shape Addax will be in a year from now.

The argument that because these blocks were sold when oil was $30 so therefore these blocks will be economical now with $30 oil, doesn't pass the smell test. $30 oil now would pretty much mean that ultra deep drilling would grind to a halt, not just in the JDZ but worldwide as well.

I flew into Minneapolis to spend Thanksgiving with some family. Based on the lack of people at the airport, demand destruction is alive and well.

bsk

7 cent shares huh. If the shares get that cheap it would force me to scrape up an extra thousand bucks somehow and double my share count.

Hey Fishdog - Sorry for the late response. I'm just now going through my mailbox trying to catch up.

First of all I want to sincerely thank you for the very nice compliment of inviting me to lunch. It was very kind of you to offer to buy lunch for someone you have never met. Unfortunately I live in Europe and will until sometime in 2010. I get to the States some but I split my time mainly between Aspen and San Diego. Thank you very much for asking.

My opinions of this company haven't changed much since March. Early on my hope was that ERHC would morph into a real E&P because that is how we would make the most money. My guess back then was ERHC's asking price could get up to $15 billion which would equate to about $20.

Now I have no such visions of grand(ur). When the time is right SEO will put lipstick on this pig and sell it for about $5 billion. Not a bad return on an initial investment of what, $6 million or so. I think SEO will get his asking price because he knows whoever buys Addax isn't going to want to split even a sliver of oil with anyone else.

Now if SEO plays hardball and waits until the STPEEZ is explored, the price depending on the price of oil, could climb to say $8 billion or so.

I don't think he waits but that's just my opinion.

If SEO had any plans for this company to grow we would have had plenty of hints by now. We would have gotten at least a glimpse of the business plan. Instead we have no business plan, no real officers of the company, ambiguous at best updates from the company.

Mr. Ledbetter has had enough time to find about 20 companies by now.

Mr. Bovell has had enough time to merge Exxon and Mobil together.

I really really wish the presentations would go away, especially in Dubai. Why would someone in a $10,000 suit who just spent $400 on a hair cut, listen to someone who looks like he's wearing the clothes he slept in the night before? If SEO is looking for a suitor in Dubai he needs to go himself, or at least send a BOD member to represent the company.

I think the lady from the white board picture would do a fine job if given the chance.

Your invite does mean a lot to me, it put a real smile on my face.

bsk

Brazilian Energy Minister Edison Lobao is a typical politician who is full of wind, (the smelly kind). He failed to mention that the reason Petrobras can go forward is because the projects are state financed.

The Energy Minister for Brazil can't come out and say "We've been cluster %&8#@& on the price we paid for rigs". He's just doing his job and putting lipstick on this ugly pig.

Without state financing, and with costs where they are, $35 oil would stop Brazil's ultra deep drilling program in it's tracks.

You need at least $125 oil to afford a $600,000 rig with all related cost levels for any real length of time.

My guess is $60-$85 oil will eventually bring about $450,000.

Enough time hasn't passed yet for the market to believe $60-$80ish oil is here for a while.

The day of $100,000 rig hands and $350,000 petro engineers is coming to an end. It may take a while but costs will come down.

There's a huge difference what you pay a rig hand with $35 oil and what you pay him at $147 oil.

Gandur (sp) will be proven right. I'm not a fan of the way Addax has handled the JDZ issues, but on the ROO I agree with them.

bsk

This is what is being kicked around in board rooms right now. These figures are rough but they are close enough to demonstrate why Addax is putting on the brakes right now.

$150 oil equals $600,000 per day

$50 oil should therefore be $200,000 per day

This thinking is going on everywhere. If the rig owners don't renegotiate there will be several available rigs in the next few months for a lot less than $600,000.

It's becoming clearer by the day that $147 oil is gone for a long long time.

Addax as well as every other oil company in the world needing a rig, will wait because they have no choice.

Right now compared to the price of hydrocarbons, costs are prohibitive. They will come down. If costs stay stubbornly high, drilling activity will fall off a cliff.

No one but Mr. Market can predict how far costs will fall but it's a pretty safe bet costs will come down to reflect the new reality.

bsk

Hi Art - I don't think there's a snowball's chance that the terms of the contract will be renegotiated. Companies will just let the rig go when there firm wells are drilled.

I don't know what terms Petrobras agreed to when they snatched the drillships away from Addax but let's just say it was for a day rate of $650,000 for 4 firm wells and 4 optional wells.

Maybe it was a 3 year lease. Usually the contract will say something like 2 firm years with an option for a third.

Petrobras is only under obligation to drill 4 wells and then have every right to give the rig up. If the day rate sinks to $400,000 which I think it will, Petrobras will be tempted to go looking elsewhere for their drillship.

I believe there are companies out there that will be willing to give rigs up rather than pay over market rates. I've invested in companies before that decided to declare bankruptcy rather than get hosed on rig rates.

Ganduer is playing this one smart. If oil continues to slide, market forces will take over and daily rates will start to come down. Rigs will then start to come available at lower rates. Unfortunately this will play out over time, it won't happen over night. The silver lining is that Addax will probably get a rig for as long as it wants one.

I predict OPEC will gradually ease production, nothing drastic. Little by little they are becoming world minded. If you don't believe me just visit Dubai. They have world class everything there, including the best German food I have ever had. It's amazing but you can go snow skiing when it's 116 degrees outside.

It's amazing to watch the world's banksters cooperate with one another. Globalization is here, firmly entrenched in the governments and more importantly, in the minds of average citizens. Worldwide people are turning to the governments to bail their banking systems out, rather than let market forces do it naturally.

Market forces involves some discomfort so we demand the governments come in and take the pain away. God help us if the wrong group with evil intentions ever seize control of the banks of the world. Everyone of us could easily be at their mercy.

My $.02 worth.
bsk

Hey maskers - You are right. This mess is starting to mirror the 1870's depression which was a lot worse than the one in 1929.

It's strange how questionable mortgage policy is at the center of both meltdowns. When real estate crashed in the 1870's it caused the banks to tank because they were using overvalued real estate as collateral for their loans. This collapse of the paper empire in turn caused commercial credit to seize up because they didn't have the money to lend to the smaller banks. The small banks were sitting ducks without access to low cost money.

The 1929 stock market crash which was triggered by factory mismanagement and the inevitable rising unemployment, caused a panic which resulted in a run on banks. There were other factors but erroneous monetary policy is largely believed to be the major culprit for the deepening of the depression.

I am very embarrassed to admit that I come from a family of banksters on my father's side. The history of his family coming to this country is a direct result of the 1870's depression in Europe which was particularly wide spread and long lasting.

Can the 4 trillion dollars that is being injected into the world economy stave off collapse of the 145 trillion derivative mess we find ourselves in? My guess is yes, although there's no telling what we will look like when we emerge from this mess.

ERHC is looking like a genius here. Quite by accident I'm sure.

Someone wrote that we have world class technical partners. I have to take issue with that statement.

Andarko is world class.

Addax is a wannabe but the jury is still out on them. Drilling this deep is the big leagues so don't expect them to perform flawlessly.

Sinopec doesn't know s&#% from shinola. The only reason the world doesn't realize this is because they don't say much. If they did their ignorance would become painfully obvious.

caio
bsk

Here's the post of the year IMO.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25011992

>>You think it is Anadarko that Addax is negotiating with for a rig ?<<

I happen to think Anadarko is the company but I don't have any real reason to think so except that they have to move a rig into the GoG anyway so why not get a partner to share the costs.

The delay isn't about the crew issues. It's something else, probably related to Ike. If it is a company like Anadarko Addax is negotiating with, they have drill ship rigs all over the world so they could swap out crew members from any number of rigs to man the JDZ boat.

It doesn't matter if a welder is plying his trade on a ship in Africa or on a rig in Texas. Welding is welding. Same goes for a mud logger or anyone else. There are enough skilled hands available who would love to get the bonuses involved in going to African waters. I know of few of them myself.

There are only a few technical people who are intimately familiar with the project that are irreplaceable, the rest are fill ins.

I think the delays are because of Ike damage. The company with the rig might now have other plans for it because of damage sustained from Ike. Maybe the rig in question was damaged. Who knows for sure? More than likely if it is delayed, it's because it's been forced to cover a slot for a rig that was damaged.

My best guess is that the rig may be delayed a bit but the deal will not be canceled. The rig will come in due time.

I've never been to Lake Eufala but I've jumped off some fairly tall cliffs at Lake Tenkiller. It was a lot of work though because you had to climb from the water, up the cliff to get high enough to make the jump worthwhile.

One of the dumbest things I ever did was jump off the top of a bridge on the Illinois River. It seemed like a really good idea at the time but boy that was really really stupid. The bridge didn't seem that high as we were paddling toward it, but wow it was scary getting to the top of that thing. Once I hit the water I wasn't too thrilled either.

I think it's funny that if you mention ERHC around the right Devon people, they go haywire. I think it's time they get over it.

MSU....that one had me rotf.

cng....oops! I mean bsk

722,000,000 X $80 = $57,760,000,000

Are you sure you don't want to refigure a little bit?

That's a nice market cap for a company that doesn't do a d@#m thing but respond to a bunch of gritching on a message board.

You know the officers of the company are a little bored when they keep up with IHUB.

$80 a share will make the almost million bucks I had to pay for my driveway a lot easier to take.

Whoever it was that posted the $80 per share I sure like the way you think. I'm looking forward to turning into the biggest pain in the arse you've ever seen.

bsk aka "The Rich B!tch"

Hi Art, It's all hypothetical as far as ERHC is concerned.

Criminal conspiracy doesn't end with the actual bribe. It ends when the last of the plan is carried out. This can include the hiding or covering up evidence of the bribe.

The SOL clock starts ticking when the last of the plan is carried out.

Conspiracy is/was the DoJ's best chance of pinning anything on ERHC. I SERIOUSLY DOUBT it got off the ground. The only reason I brought it up was that I don't recall anyone ever explaining the conspiracy angle before. (and to try to get back on Tryoty's good side. lol)

Tryoty - my intent of the post you are referring to wasn't to imply that you personally were delusional, but that your views on the company were delusional. Sorry about the misunderstanding. I think you are a pretty good guy.

I hate to sound like I'm sucking up but your point of why the indictment may still be sealed is a good one. It sounds very feasible to me.

nh - are you sure this is a dead issue. The number one issue on newbies minds are about the investigations. There is still a lot of underlying tension because of them.

FWIW I have never received a notice that the Gov't was done with me. I have received "thank you for the information" letters and then never heard from them again. IMO ERHC will never hear from them again requesting information.

IF AND IT'S A BIG IF they hear from them at all.... it will be to notify them of their findings and what amount if any the fine is.

Since I basically gamble for a living I am perfectly content saying the odds are about 70-30 that the investigations are in the can.

bsk

>>Any FCPA violations... if there's any evidence that isn't laughably sketchy, would result in a fine that would be manageable... and its a huuuuuge stretch to even get to charges let alone a conviction of violations<<

I am inclined to agree with you. IMO the DoJ knew going in that the odds of being able to prove a bribe took place were negligible. IMO they were hoping to scrape up some evidence for a conspiracy complaint, but it is a huuuuge stretch as you say.

The SOL clock for conspiracy doesn't start until the last part of the plan has ceased. IF IF IF conspiracy is in play, the DoJ would have to prove there was a preconceived plan to bribe, or after the bribe took place there was a plan to cover up the fact that the bribe took place.

ERHC/SEO would have to be incredibly incompetent to have documentation of such a bribe(s) just laying around in the office somewhere.

Would Noreen Wilson and that regime testify that they conspired to bribe? This is laughable. They would be implicating themselves because they were the officers of the company at the time.

Some have speculated that the DoJ promised to hold them harmless in any prosecution. If that's the case, why bother with them at all if you aren't going to penalize the very people responsible for the crime.

My only concern at the time was our friend? Walter Brandhuber. Did he have a role in turning ERHC in to the Feds? WB was abruptly given the boot by SEO. Could this conspiracy mess have played a part in his dismissal? Why did WB just happen to be in Houston the day of the raid? Why did he meet with the Feds while the raid was taking place?

If an officer of the company doesn't want to risk being implicated in the conspiracy, he has to IMMEDIATELY notify the DoJ of any criminal intent he may have come across. This is why companies turn themselves in so quick and why they bend over backwards to cooperate with the investigation. The company as well as officers can be held liable if a conspiracy plan is uncovered.

In my mind the word IMMEDIATELY is why I have ruled out WB having a role in this. The main reason is that he was CEO for too long a time period to not be implicated in the conspiracy. It doesn't take much proof to be implicated. The DoJ can implicate based solely on circumstantial evidence.

The good thing about a conspiracy complaint is that the DoJ looks for compliance rather than focusing on sanctions. ERHC is cooperating with the Feds and contrary to some peoples opinion, dialog takes place during the entire process.

If the DoJ did turn up any suspicious documents, the company's lawyers would know about it and attempt to deal with it right then. Could SEO's departure tie into this as I and several on this board have speculated?

Who knows for sure? Those who know aren't talking. Those who are talking like they do know what's going on are full of baloney.

>>I do not have my head buried in the sand, as degen and others would suggest. There simply isn't a d@mn thing the DOJ or SEC can do to hurt ERHC Energy. Your implication to the contrary is lacking substance<<

I COULD NOT AGREE MORE WITH YOU! I'm not yelling, I am emphatically agreeing with you. ERHC may have to pay a small fine but will they be shut down over this? NO WAY!

bsk

>>How's that for an initial plan of attack?<<

I think you're delusional.

Are you sure you want to pick a fight with the DoJ? If you cross them the wrong way they will rip you a new one before lunch.

You are accusing SEO and Addax colluding against ERHC. That's so far out there it doesn't even deserve a response.

The CEO's ERHC has had aren't the sharpest tools in the shed. Brandhuber had a hidden agenda the entire time he was there.

You want to kick the BOD to the curb.

You want to give SEO and the entire management team the boot.

I have to hand it to you, when you pitch a fit you don't really care how assinine you come across.

There's a famous line in the movie "Good Morning Viet Nam" that describes you perfectly.

ERHC can't control when Addax will secure a rig. They have no say where they will drill. They have no power to tell the DoJ to buzz off.

They are doing something about the only thing they do have some control over. They are trying to grow the company by acquiring outside assets. It's a tough environment out there because banks are only willing to lend money to the people who don't need it.

The acting CEO did something that is pretty rare these days. He released a PR responding to shareholder concerns. I think that is extremely kind of him. This board goes ballistic. Today's PR may be the last one of its kind for a while.

It's JMO but I think you guys embarrassed yourselves today.

Exactly what crimes has our gov't come out publicly and accused ERHC of committing?

We've got apples and oranges here.

Once we can read all about the charges ERHC faces in the newspaper I would expect the company to come out swinging just as Addax is now doing.

Until then I'm thankful for the current status of ERHC's legal situation. The quieter the better IMO.

>>I have been party to very complicated and extensive investigations by the US government on US companies, and I have never seen the company with knowledge of what is or is not going on. Only by silence does the US govt keep the upper hand.<<

You're kidding right. What a pile of hooey this is.

When there's blood in the water the sharks start circling. Why do you think every gov't agency on this side of the pond has their nose in this thing? I've heard them called a lot of things and their methods described a lot of creative ways, but them operating in silence has never been one of them.

When the DoJ came bursting in the offices with guns drawn I guess you think that was done in silence? They just don't reach a certain point in the investigation and then all of a sudden change tactics.

When an agency has you in their sights, believe me, they let you know in no uncertain terms what they are doing and who the bull in the woods is. When they smell blood they are relentless.

I have never known or ever heard of an investigation where the gov't silently gathers facts, processes those facts, and then one day just pounces with no warning. It just doesn't happen that way.

In this particular investigation which involves federal gov'ts, there would be so many rumors and rumblings that we would know almost blow by blow what is happening. Don't you think that someone, somewhere, in one of the three countries involved would have leaked something, especially if it would show ERHC was guilty?

There are reporters all over the world that would just love to break this story wide open. Don't think they haven't done their share of snooping. By now we would be reading revelation after revelation smearing ERHC, and how rotten they were for taking advantage of little ol STP.

Instead we read the same old story rewritten time after time.

We've had clues that their sights were set on SEO but that's about it.

The investigations are dormant. If the gov't was still actively pursuing ERHC the lawyers would know it. If the gov't was still building it's case they would constantly need ERHC's cooperation in every step of the process. The fact that ERHC hasn't heard from the gov'ts lawyers in quite some time is as good of a clue as there is that the agencies have moved on to fresh meat.

The last thing on earth ERHC's lawyers would be doing is going around saying they think the investigations are a non issue, when they knew for a fact they were still quite active. Wow, would that be fodder for a class action lawsuit.

>Only by silence does the gov't keep the upper hand<. No......that's not the way they do it. They maintain control and keep the upper hand by biatch slapping anyone who dares to cross them. It's my experience that all companies bend over backwards to cooperate with them because they know full well what will happen to them if they don't.

If the gov't is silent, for ERHC it is a good thing.

Let's see where the chips fall, but don't go around making sh@t up.

bsk

I am assuming that the delays are due in part to the bugs in the rig being worked out now. The owners of the Aban Abraham wouldn't dare let the rig go until they were 100% positive the boat was ready to go.

If the rig breaks down while in the middle of a drilling operation, Kosmos or Addax or any oil company for that matter, would be extreeeemely pizzed. The logistics of keeping that ship productive probably has a very small margin of error built into the plan. In no time at all that rig breakdown could get very expensive.

Generally speaking, the deeper you go the more pressure you encounter. It's this pressure that makes the job complicated.

For example: If you turn on your garden hose water comes trickling out. Put your thumb over the end of it and the water starts spraying everywhere. Now hook your hose up to a power washer and the water pressure will tear your sheet rock off your garage wall.

It's this power washer type of pressure that can ruin a structure before you even know what you've done. At these depths you don't dare make an error in judgement so I expect them to take it very slow and deliberate for the first couple of wells. When it comes time to put the production lines in, they will test and retest each step in the process.

Another challenge they might encounter is the different porosities at different levels in the structure. The volume of mass (oil) each layer of sand (pay zone) can handle will vary, sometimes greatly vary, within the same structure.

These are a couple of variables that will determine if the structure, or what percentage of the structure is recoverable.

I personally believe most of the oil will be recoverable. I haven't heard of much injection going on but I haven't really been paying that much attention either.

I hope the JMC has hired some real knowledgeable oil people to scrutinize each drilling plan Addax submits. That would help me sleep better at night. As a lot of you already know, I would prefer Pioneer, Devon or Noble to be at the controls right now.

It's getting time to roll the dice.

bsk

I've been kind of preoccupied lately and haven't had a chance to keep up with ERHC as much as I'd like to.

Who was it that came up with the "ocean of oil" in block 4? What a whopper that was.

Addax has said and I agree that there are several pockets of oil throughout the JDZ. Some pockets are larger than others but I would call them big lakes rather than oceans.

It's a good thing Addax has assembled the team they have because it's not going to be easy getting this oil out of the ground.

Once they know what they have, it's going to take about 3 years and a couple of billion bucks to link up all their wells to a platform. It is going to be really tricky protecting the resevoir walls with all the different porosities down there.

It is going to take world class engineering to pull it off.

The story coming out of South America about a 33 billion bbl discovery is laughable. A field that large would be proven in stages, not all at once. Must have come from politicians.

I sure wouldn't mind $40 shares. That would almost get me enough money to pay for all the dancing outfits my daughter has.

Congratulations to all you Kansas Jayhawks. Bill Self is a class act.

bsk

You are right. It's hard to read her writing but it has a better chance being prior than it does public.

Buying back prior percentages would make more sense than buying public percentages. IMO this would be a fantastic use of their capital.

If ERHC has plans to buy back their original percentages from Addax, all I can say is YEEEHAAAW!

ERHC would have to give up their free carry but in return would get to keep more moolah. They paid retail prices for their free carry.

ERHC having their original percentages back with Addax out of the picture makes them a more enticing take over target. They wouldn't be so joined at the hip with them.

The question that has to be asked is......Would Addax let go of them?

Probably because Addax has other irons in the fire in the ME that are also capital intensive.

I might just have to up the ante a little bit tomorrow.

This is fun reading. Here is what I can see.

ERHC gets an infusion of cash from the circled mystery B name using the percentages they have with Addax as colateral.

There are 2 options on the table:

1. They use it for CAPITAL INVESTMENT:

The long line down to Buy Public % represents how they define CAPITAL INVESTMENT. They buy out the public shares. I don't like this option. SEO's greed is showing.

2. The PORTFOLIO EXCHANGE:

Gives them the option to invest in another company through an outright acquisition or through a share swap deal.

If they choose option #1, (the option I think will ultimately happen), the long range plan (TIME ARROW) is a new company will be created and listed on the Toronto exchange.

If they choose option #2, ERHC will be listed on the NYSE, or in London or the TSX. My order of preference is theirs also; the NYSE first, then London, then Toronto.

I am in the camp that believes if option #1 is their goal, then it will happen before drilling. The public shares will be a lot cheaper before drilling.

I wish we could see what the young lady wrote on how her company was going to make either of these 2 options work.

bsk

This picture has no top secret information on it so everyone can relax about that. There is little to be gained by identifying the young lady, but if you can identify the members of the audience and the companies they represent, you will be on to something.

She looks like she is a sales rep, probably for Brenner, probably at the supervisor level or close to it. Her presence tells me this isn't a company maker type deal for Brenner, so chances are XOM or CVX aren't involved. If it was a major deal, instead of this young lady with her dry erase board, you would see a 50 year old man or woman impeccably dressed making a power point slide show presentation.

The information on the white board are some details of how her company would put the deal together. Based on what is written on the board she is just about to transition into the meat of her presentation so what is on the board is about ready to be wiped off.

I like her. She's confident with good presentation skills and probably easy to listen to.

Brenner is probably only one of several to make their pitch to this group. If my suspicions are proven true, meetings like this have been taking place at a pretty fast clip. Drilling is less than a year away which doesn't give the players much time to hammer out a dizzying amount of detail.

I'm not much on trying to time stuff but when the dust settles ERHC won't be ERHC any longer. It seems painfully obvious now. The money involved is just to big for ERHC to survive on their own. I wonder if the root cause of the conflict between SEO and WB was this very issue. SEO decided to put a JV together while WB wanted to try to make a go of it as an independent. Those who know aren't talking.

I now see why Mr. Ledbetter came to work for ERHC. To survive and climb the food chain in a major company, you must have really really good presentation skills. Without them, you are at a disadvantage as you compete for company resources. It will be tough to get what you want and therefore it will be pretty darn hard to get to where you want to be in the food chain. There are only so many technical jobs to go around.

Mr. Ledbetter is imo a very competent detail man but hit a ceiling based on his presentation skills. He is now at a company where he can still reap some handsome financial rewards in spite of his verbal skills. ERHC is quite fortunate to have him and I am becoming a bigger and bigger fan of his as he gets more and more exposure.

On an entirely different subject......

I am not unlike many posters and lurkers on this board. I would like to respond to the many issues discussed here but just don't have the time to do it. All of us posters could do each other a great service and at the same time greatly enhance the value of the the board if we respond properly.

If you respond to my post or any other poster, it would really help us if state what was said, state your opinion of that idea, and then offer an alternative idea to back up your opinion. Give me and others something concrete to respond to. It doesn't mean anything to me if you tell me my idea stinks if you don't back yourself up with a credible, well thought out response.

This will enhance the value of this board many fold and will give us time challenged readers and opportunity to join in.

I hate to say it but blurting out your opinion and then not backing it up does nothing. I dare say your post will be skipped by most readers of this board.

Reading about the young lady and figuring out the puzzle was fun to read because everyone was cooperating with each other.

bsk

SNP is down by 50% off their highs.
XOM and CVX are down 10% off their highs.

Most of the oil stocks I own are well off their highs.

Energy stocks are cyclical by nature. They all suffer from a case of "What have you done for me lately" itis.

When ERHC starts running it will catch fire. When the excitement tapers off due to lack of drilling results, their stock will taper off as well.

It's just the nature of the industry.

I personally don't think the world economy can sustain the high oil prices we are currently seeing.

Kosmos must be pretty desperate to try to float a loan from Blackstone.

The phrase "blood sucking vampires" pretty much sums it up.

Unfortunately Addax may be in the same boat one day if they choose to try to bring their block to production on their own.

It seems like drilling costs are going up every week. What a difference a few years makes.

There are only a handful of companies in the world who have both the money and expertise to get the JDZ oil flowing. Hopefully CVX won't walk away. We all might be up the proverbial creek if they do.

Sinopec has the money but is sorely lacking any ultra-deep experience. I doubt the JMC would seriously consider an offer by Sinopec to develop the entire JDZ.

IMO the only way Sinopec would be a serious player is if they were to buy Addax and let them develop the blocks. Even then it's a risky play. It would take several years for the Sinopec/Addax team to recoup their dough.

The safest bet and therefore my preference would be for CVX or XOM to take out Addax and ERHC after the 10 wells are drilled. Addax and ERHC are forever joined at the hip so where Addax goes ERHC will follow.

IMO ERHC has no chance of surviving as a stand alone company. At one time they did but it is just too costly now, their arena is just too expensive. The amount of oil it's going to take to pay off the drilling and production costs is too prohibitive for ERHC to stay in the game.

bsk

I'm resting a little easier now that it has become known that Addax has a stable full of experienced oil men raided from the majors. Hopefully Sinopec will let Addax call the shots for block 2 as well. I have the most confidence for block 3, Anadarko will eventually develop it to get maximum benefit out of it.

I've been asking around about the investigations and doing a little digging and this is what I have come up with:

The DoJ has an almost impossible task trying to prove that ERHC attained and then held onto their rights illegitimately.

Whatever testimony the DoJ relies on will be immediately challenged by ERHC. ERHC will require that individual, company or nation or representative of that nation to prove that every single word of their allegation is true.

If STP is involved the people I've conferred with don't think the JDZ agreement will be worth the paper it's printed on. Nigeria already thinks the acreage belongs to them and Emeka Offor and those he represents won't go to bat for STP any longer, so STP will be left with nothing.

I personally was of the opinion that SEO's political contributions were going to be a headache for ERHC. As far as I can tell they are basically harmless. They were made by Chrome, not ERHC so the residual effect will be minimal.

There's a lot of he said/she said type stuff out there but as far as I can tell, absolutely none of it is proveable. A lot of circumstances may look bad or incriminating, but almost none of it is actually proveable.

Mike Madigan said the AG report has lots of rhetoric but no facts. His opinion is good enough for me.

According to Meridian, SEO was advised not to do the Starcrest deal the way he did it, now he is in hot water over it. I'm wondering if SEO went against legal advisement concerning the Feltang mess. We'll see.

Go Patriots.

bsk

At these low prices it would be very advantageous to transfer shares out of your regular IRA and into your Roth IRA. You will have to pay taxes on the monetary amount you transfer but imo this will pay off big dividends in the future.

The chances are nil that SEO would transfer 100 million shares and not fill out the required forms. Way too many legal beagles hanging around for that to happen. I'm in the camp that believes the shares were always split this way, they were just misreported in the filings.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the investigations as well. It's interesting that the IRS is focusing on 2005 and '06, and not back when ERHC was slugging it out with STP around 2001 or so.

It's interesting because I remember reading a while back about another fed agency focusing in on 2004. It seems the Feds are focusing on what happened in the near past instead of a decade ago.

This bodes well for the company imo because with SEO at the helm they would have had ample time and the know how to protect themselves from exactly what is happening today.

This has been stated many times in the past to the point of nausea, but it is still a very valid point. SEO would've had to been a world class idiot to have kept his "secrets" in a file cabinet in Houston. More than likely there aren't any secrets to be uncovered anyway because of SEO's political ties.

If the company was worried about what the IRS could uncover they certainly wouldn't have switched their financial representation when they did.

The attack dogs have turned this company inside out looking for any dirt they could find. They didn't dedicate all the time and resources they did for this attack because ERHC is a scam.

In my mind these investigations are an all out attack against our little minnow but I think they are starting to wind down a little bit. I hope we get closure some time in 2008.

I sure wish I knew what went on behind closed doors because the gloves definitely came off. All the heavy hitters joined the fight for the feds. Akin and Gump must have reeeeeelly made the feds mad for them to call in the Senate's homeland security people. An IRS audit is also a tactic they use when they are playing rough.

Once the attacks go away and ERHC can hire a CEO, we will then know a lot more about what direction this company will be headed. Until then ERHC is in survival mode.

Bobwill.....I sure like your posts because you aren't afraid to defend America. I appreciate it.

God bless America. The U.S. is far and away the best country on Earth.

bsk

When the Earth's plates come in contact with each other, tremendous grinding takes place creating a thrust structure which causes huge amounts of sand to be created.

It's in this sand where hydrocarbons flow. Oil will seep through the layers of sand until it runs into a sedimentary barrier causing it to form a pool. These barriers are what the large regional four-way structural closures are. Thats just a fancy way of saying it's a lake bottom.

The JDZ is full of these sandy pools. Fortunately for us the plates in this part of the world are huge and the pools it forms are gigantic.

Geologists spend their lives studying these structures and it gets very technical.

The deeper you drill the more you have to deal with the tremendous pressure these sand structures are under. Collapsing these sand structures is a constant risk and is the main reason why I wanted ERHC to partner up with companies that had ultra-deep experience.

It's far from easy and just because a company like Addax knows where the oil is, doesn't mean they will automatically know how to maximize production.

Anyway, this is my attempt to explain a hugely complex concept in a simple way.

bsk

Oops, I never defined what a thrust structure was. A thrust structure is a basic geological structure. It is created when the 2 plates meet, one plate naturally is pushed on top of the other one. The top plate creates a thrust structure as it moves along on top of the bottom plate.

I don't think there is going to be much of a consortium until it can be proven there is something to consort about. Neither ERHC or EEL has anything worth merging for so it seems a stretch that they will link up anytime soon.

It will be very telling to find out how much ERHC has been paying their lawyers.

If they haven't been paying much I interpret that to mean the investigations were probably related to Mr. Jefferson and they will soon go away. If however ERHC has been paying through the nose then some heavy duty negotiations have been going on and I think Mr. Offor is in trouble.

Which will come first.....an oil discovery or some SEC/DOJ rulings? I think the legal mess will manifest before much drilling happens.

I don't think the DOJ has much to do with the case any more, but the SEC is a different story.

If the SEC does go forward with some serious allegations of wrong doing on the part of the company, I have little doubt ERHC's lawyers would eventually rip them to shreds. SEO on the other hand has some 'splainin to do. However.....if SEO hangs tough and doesn't give in, in the end he should come out alright as well.

The problem is that all this defending and lawyering is going to be an extremely expensive undertaking. A fact the SEC is very much aware of.

I know we have mostly Vegas types here on the board, but if there is a way any of you can get to Aspen some time this winter, you won't be sorry. The mountains around here are so incredibly beautiful when they are covered in snow.

Merry Christmas everyone.

bsk

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24099961

This is really funny!

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24005654

Our IHub board only has 6 bans. Look at this one.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=54268

I know there are a lot of TGA'ers on this board. It looks like they are in for a very good year. Ross is pretty excited.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24005261

It looks like my good name has been impugned by some posters here.

I will be the first to admit that I don't have any inside connections to anything that is going on. Everything I post is strictly my opinion.

The reason I believe the investigations are going the way I wrote about in my last post is based solely on some experience I've had in dealing with different federal agencies in the past. While I admit that I have never had to deal with the DOJ or the SEC, I do believe the way federal agencies prosecute cases doesn't vary that much from agency to agency.

I never thought I would see the day that SEO would step away from ERHC. He has taken too many arrows, has too many scars, rolled around in too much mud, spent way too much time and effort and who knows how many sleepless nights, to just walk away for no good reason.

IMO if all the penalty ERHC was going to incur was a couple of million bucks, SEO would still be sitting in the chair. For him to walk away from power the penalty had to be pretty darn stiff, otherwise he NEVER would have walked.

A penalty that would cripple ERHC would make him do it, nothing else.

The Senate/Dept of Homeland Security doesn't have one thing to do with the investigations of the DOJ or SEC. They block mergers and outright sales of U.S. companies to companies of foreign nations on a regular basis. I have a limited amount of experience or knowledge in this area as well.

Once again, I don't have one bit of inside information on what is actually going on with ERHC. All I have is my opinions like everyone else.

Go Patriots!

Ya'll have a nice life.

bsk

Hey Balance, how does this fit in with your line of thinking?

The Senate/Homeland Security tells ERHC that in the interest of national security they can't sell out to the Chinese.

XOM is allowed to sell out to Addax so this had to clear the Senate/Homeland Security hurdle.

Addax/Swiss have an agreement/treaty with the U.S. to not sell strategic assets to the Chinese.

Addax and CVX are pretty cozy which probably leads to Addax buying ERHC and then CVX buying the new Addax. CVX may be content to just partner up with Addax, but I doubt it.

This leaves block 2 with the Chinese. There's a chance China may very well sell or trade out because they have way more on their plate than they can deal with now.

CVX may end up with the entire JDZ.

If Sinopec sticks around and the JDZ is developed as a joint venture, China has little chance of getting the oil.

The odds are pretty high that there is a master plan already in place for the JDZ. SEO seemed pretty confident when he stepped down that ERHC was ready to go it alone without him.

There is no way SEO could have been talking about ERHC being ready to enter into the exploration phase of drilling. This would take an entire team of seasoned oil people, not just one person Mr. Ledbetter.

It could be Mr. Ledbetter has hired his team, who knows.

How is ERHC ready to go it alone without a CEO? Hellooooo!

bsk

I think the only credible reasons for the SP are the investigations and drilling one year away. There has to be closure to the investigations before the biggies will buy in. Fantastic to absolutely unbelievable drilling results will move the price some, but the real increases will come when the Feds are off ERHC's back.

I've upped my investment by 1/3 because there is not one single doubt left in my mind that ERHC is defusing the investigations.

I am expecting a fine of between $10-20 million to be levied against ERHC for some of SEO's campaign donation actions. IMO the fine was in the $50 million range before he resigned.

I am expecting a fine of between $5-10 million for the bribery issues his contributions raised.

IMO ERHC is the reason for the long time delays, not the Feds. ERHC has the burden of proof on them so they are the ones taking the time to gather supporting evidence.

ERHC has had ample time to prepare their case so I think they have already submitted their side of the story to the Feds and have clarified any questions or issues the Feds may have had. The next step is awaiting a decision from them.

If ERHC's lawyers think they have negotiated the best deal possible they will take their lumps and move on.

If ERHC's lawyers think they are being railroaded then we will read about an indictment against ERHC.

Hopefully the two sides can meet somewhere in the middle.

I didn't like the Dept of Homeland Security getting involved. IMO Sinopec will never get ERHC now. Too bad for us stockholders.

I've been kind of busy lately so this may be it for a while.

From my family to all of yours,
Have a wonderful holiday season.
bsk

$200 oil by 2010 will make the JDZ one hotly contested zone. If Offor/ERHC allows itself to be bought out now they are complete, utter fools. The sky is the limit for ERHC if they would leverage themselves into a full fledged producer.

I have heard the rumblings about Saudi before but reading it in black and white is still sobering.

My biggest fear is that nations will resort to bullets to secure their energy needs. I hate to say it but Iraq might just be the tip of the iceberg.

bsk

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23981963

To: Tommaso who wrote (92265) 10/19/2007 1:09:14 PM
From: Umunhum 15 Recommendations of 92309

Bits and Pieces from ASPO Houston:


I got a chance to talk to Matt Simmons right after Stuart Staniford’s talk on the Ghawar Field. He said that he has talked to a few senior people at Aramco and that there is no way they will ever produce 12 million barrels a day. He doesn’t know why they are publicly stating that they will have the ability to do so in a few years.

I ran into Henry Groppe taking a break in the hall. I asked him for some stock picks and his two favorites are CNQ and Trican. I have never heard of Trican. He said they are a service company that is rapidly expanding in Russia. I haven’t done any DD on the company and know absolutely nothing about it.

Chris Skrebowski gave a great presentation. He still has the peak sometime in 2011. He said that 2008 and 2009 are going to be fairly good addition years to supply – somewhere between 1.5 – 2 million barrels each year. I caught up with him later and said that a few years ago he had 2006 and 2007 as good addition years and a dearth in production from 2008 on – what happened?. He said the problem was that some projects have been pushed out and depletion is eating up more than he thought. He said I just report the numbers of what companies say they are going to do – my opinion is not involved in my report on the megaprojects. I am going to meet him for drinks tonight so I should be able to get his personal opinion. His take on the latest price was that the world has been on a plateau for several years now. Demand recently surpassed supply and we are eating into inventories. If production doesn’t rise going forward we are going to have a lot higher prices.

Matt Simmons presentation was also excellent. He had several slides on China and the developing world that would turn any bear into a bull. He stated that Q4 demand is likely to exceed supply by 2-3 million barrels a day. He still thinks he’s got a great shot at winning his $200 oil price by 2010 bet. He said that when he was giving a presentation to a room full of petroleum engineers, he asked everyone there to raise their hand if they believe that the decline rate of oil production was between 1% – 5% and not one hand went up. 5% - 10% about half the people in the room raised their hand. And then above 10% and about half the people raised their hand.

Richard Nehring was the only bearish presentation that I saw. He believes that the peak is going to be around 2020 and that $80 oil is going to spur a lot of secondary recovery projects on old fields that were produced years ago. Most people scoffed at the idea claiming that this will just make the down slope a little less extreme.

There are some real pessimistic opinions on what is about to take place in Mexico. PEMEX is the largest indebted corporation in the world. It contributes 30% – 40% of the Mexican Governments revenues. These revenues are going to come to an end in the next 5 years and some people think Mexico could turn into something similar to Afghanistan or Pakistan. The U.S. will secure its border with Mexico over the next 10 years according to the pessimists.

Jeffrey Brown's presentation on Peak Exports was music to a bull’s ears. I am going off of memory but I believe he stated that at a 4% decline rate and 5% consumption growth rate that in 2023, Saudi Arabia ceases to be an exporter. He had various models going forward where he tweaked the decline rate and the internal consumption growth of the exporter to get different numbers, but oil availability is going to get scarcer every year going forward. I believe this is the most important concept to grasp.

Several of the speakers have said that we are going to look back at today as the good old days when oil was only $80 - $90 a barrel. They believe we are going above $200 a barrel. Several people have also mentioned that Putin is well aware of peak oil and intends on saving Russia’s resources for Russians.

When I get back to Panama I am going to formulate a strategy to buy more crude oil future contracts.


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The world is changing. The way of doing business and where money is migrating to is changing. I never in a million years would have thought that I would eat the best German food I've ever had in my life while in Dubai. It didn't fit my mindset. It's no wonder Haliburton and every other oil company are falling all over themselves to move to Dubai.

If you insist on doing things the old way and refusing to be dynamic in your approach to meeting your goals, you will be left behind wondering what happened.

It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Sinopec does come in and breaks the so called rules and buys up the JDZ for prices we just dream about now.

An incident involving Iran and poof, $7.00 gas is here. If that were to happen, what Sinopec paid for the JDZ will seem cheap.

It all depends on the size of the puddles.

$3.5 billion is the least I would take. Whoever buys ERHC has the inside track to eventually own the entire JDZ, so that has to be figured into the equation as well.

It's iffy if SEO would sign off for $1.5 billion. Once you start waving $2 billion in front of him his knees start shaking uncontrollably.

Like a previous poster said....."The puddles are pretty big." If Sinopec likes the size of the puddles, they easily could own the JDZ in a few years.

Hi Art

That bad blood is all water under the bridge.

My fearless forcast is that Sinopec first takes out ERHC and when they get all cozy with Addax they buy them out as well.

Addax has better uses for their limited funds than buying ERHC. They've got bigger fish to fry in other places like Iraq.

CVX won't do it because whether they have ERHC's percentages or not, they can't be operator while Addax is in the picture. They might come in and buy up ERHC and Addax in one bold move but they will insist on waiting until proven. By that time it will more than likely be too late.

Sinopec increases their stake in the JDZ through ERHC but doesn't commit the big bucks Addax will cost them until they know exactly what they're getting.

bsk the Fearless