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“It doesn’t make much sense for some investors to buy gold at a time when the dollar may strengthen further,” said Sergey Grudev, an analyst at Standard Bank Russia in Moscow.
Hope this guy is just an analyst and doesn't have any money on the table because he is going to lose his day job. People who think gold is going down cannot read between the lines. This is probably the most perfect of a storm for gold you are going to get into in a lifetime, and no the dollar isn't going to strengthen a novice chartist can tell it is making a downtrend.
Dollar index:
Broke out of short term downtrend, trading in longer term down trend for now.
Dollar index
Context is everything, I said right now, obviously it is good for longer term.
Yep whoever has a dialogue with John that should be the forefront of your questions. All these property licensings don't mean jack right now.
Watching gold trade is really interesting. It trades right along with the broader market when it is going up and when the market starts a downtrend gold really starts picking up the pace. It is win win haha gotta love it.
Dollar is making a clear downtrend
In addition to my last post there is a lot of call buying going on out of the money. For those of you not familiar with options they are in short a bet of where you think an underlying security will go in a period of time. Calls are bets that they will be equal to or greater than the specific strike price and puts are if they will be equal to or less than. Open interest on each strike price can be used to forecast a stocks direction in the future. Notice the low amount of open interest in the put side. A lot of people think gold will hit at least 950 by December 19th. GLD and gold spot price is about 1:10.14.
I predict .04 in January .10 in March .35+ in June.
Dollar is making a nice down trend, hopefully we get another day like Friday tomorrow.
How I am going to play SGCP is: 35% of it I'll use for playing around and speculate on price movement. The other 65% I am waiting till a year for cap gains tax then it is game on after that.
Well I wouldnt make a good day trader haha but the long term trend is intact.
Yep you and I got it right on the money, today is a good day people you can remember this as the day the ball started to get rolling. Good times ahead I anticipate a parabolic climb in the gold markets in the last hour of trading today institutional investors are hopping on the bandwagon. Gold will be the best performing asset class of 2009 hands down. SGCP coupled with 1500 POG could easily be $1.50 in 2009.
GLTA
I am ecstatic right now I'm not going to lie I was jumping up and down when I seen what gold was doing this morning. Still can't believe I called that like a 100 million a year player on wall street.
Hahaha I think I called the exact moment of upswing in Gold and I am on record doing it, I love the internet. (Post 7275)
A blatant break out trend forming 1000 POG in January, 2000 by end of 2009. Anyone against this bet is going to lose a lot of money and were going to be rich if you play your cards right. :)
GLTA
Yeah oops typo I was running to work and wanted to get that post in so people could see fast money, yeah dollar rally is artifical and its going to collapse and gold is going to rally like nothing seen in history. He is expecting past 2000 an ounce in 2010 and at least hit 2000 by the end of 2009.
If you missed the gold discussion on fast money an avid investor is saying the gold rally is artificial just like the .com boom. He has been saying basically what I have been saying on this forum I may be wrong on timing but I know it is going up in the future. Watch fast money when it comes on again today if you missed it specifically half way through the show. He also called the deep recession we are in right now in early 2007, so I consider this guy a real player.
Also read this http://seekingalpha.com/article/106961-gold-market-price-points-to-watch?source=article_lb_articles
Yeah and he should read my post on predicting when PR's come out (post 7261). It is not constructive to predict when PRs are going to come out they make expectations on false pretenses, and if you are right on your prediction it doesn't do anything. Versus a prediction of where gold prices are going to go in the future, based on good logic, which may cause new money to go into SGCP etc..
Yeah I have mentioned that exact statement in probably 3 of my previous posts. "the only time you will see a meaningful move in this stock is if we break the 950-1000 POG mark or have a PR that has some substance to it." (post 7231) maybe I should of put and/or but I'm sure a fifth grader could of figured out if you have both of those conditions it would favor well.
Just some observations I have noticed from the past couples weeks today. Gold traded right along with the major indicies and today it is starting to make a discontinuity in that trend. Indicating a bottom.
Edit Note: changed chart to reflect end of day activity in equity markets(previous chart was at 3:32 EST)
Also the dollar looks like it is making a top, pay close attention to gold prices I have a high level a certainty that were going to start seeing an upswing in gold prices.
I think gold has a small chance of hitting 1000 by year end but a large chance of hitting 1000 in january and maybe 1500 in July. I think that prediction of 2-3 year horizon is way off. By 2010, at the latest July 2010, we should be into recovery mode in the equity markets and gold wont be such a hot trade. But I guess we will see who is right.
Capital expenditure and number of shares that would be equivalent to is completely unrelated. Im on the same page with you of what you have been saying but I want to get the facts straight. When you convey that either PRs are really expensive(Im sure the average person thought of a 3k to 5k range) or SGCP has to watch every dollar they spend like they have food stamps, it is not factual. To be quite honest I don't know why people are predicting when PRs are going to come out unless they know the day to day business operations going on in Sierra Leone, which I highly doubt.
Like I said news will come out when there is news to report it is pointless and counter-productive to make predictions with no basis of that prediction. If I were to say, oh there should be a PR to come out next monday and I have a few people that agree for whatever reason. That creates a false expectation and when it doesn't come about people become dissappointed under false pretenses. Chicken I agree with you I'm just getting my 2 cents in.
GLTA
Agreed, news will come out when it happens. It only costs $400-800 (http://www.ereleases.com/welcome.html?gclid=CJzFuKCf_5YCFQkiagodsjsGXg) to send out a PR that is basically petty cash status. I think the field reports and PRs are going to be coordinated, unless the PR deals with revenue and what not. I am anticipating a field report saying processors are in place and operational then maybe a couple days later a PR will come out. That will keep the current and more importantly active shareholders ahead of the curve. They are dealing with challenging conditions and patience must be exercised. If they dont get the processors operational sometime in January then I would start to worry. I know it has been a long time coming I have been a shareholder for well over a year, but you don't want the hope of a PR coming out soon to get to your head.
GLTA
Yeah that's what happens when you have heavyweights manipulating a stock. Im sticking to my story that goes like this; the only time you will see a meaningful move in this stock is if we break the 950-1000 POG mark or have a PR that has some substance to it. It seems pretty intuitive but a lot of ideas have been thrown around in this forum that haven't really been valid. My prediction of the last PR not doing much and only going to .006 was correct for the reason of having no substance and only potential(post 7116).
Gold will start to take off the dollar is leveling out and short term deflationary pressures are going to subside, that means gasoline prices will go up unfortunately :(. If you look at a daily of GLD you can see it trading sideways and setting up for an uptrend. My time range might be wrong but I think we will see this starting to come about in at least December if not sooner.
If you think that gold prices have little to no influence on the stock you are greatly mistaken. It may not have an influence from these levels to 950 but after that buying demand coming in is almost a sure thing.
Pretty soon us longs are going to see the fruit of their labor and our time and money. How I examine stocks on the pinks is first off is it a scam? No. Does it have a meaningful pipeline? Yes. Does current or future market trends favor the shareholders? Yes (gold prices). So stick in there and in a couple months time you'll be able to buy a 2008 Audi TT if you want, at least that is what im getting :).
GLTA
Nice slap of the ask :P
Can someone post L2 plz
Well I agree with that to a point. There is a distinct threshold in the spot price of gold where buyer demand steps in, by my gut instinct if it hits 1000 it will be around .008 to .01 1500 .04-.10 and beyond that would start a buying frenzy and frankly that is hard to predit the price.
This stock doesn't follow "normal" moves when it takes off, I mean I have seen stocks go up 15x in like 3 days and the stocks were similiar in share structure and pps. It is easy to forget that they do have a small revenue stream just look at Profit & Loss financial information, and really if you want to get right down to it, the company is valued at its revenue stream of dog you know what. Then if the profit margins widen a great deal due to ~ 1500 or basically double of where we are today that is taken into account and overcompensated. The public markets usually over shoot what the company is really worth or really under shoot and causes bad things to happen like what we are experiencing now. Correct me if I am wrong but the photo of the wash plant on the website and that whole dredge is still in operation. I really hope we get some sort of quarterly data or I'll take any PR that is quantitative within a month or so.
GLTA
I want to start a topic of discussion about the gold and dollar index relationship and what this means for future gold prices and of course SGCP. I did a little reasearch and on Oct 26, 2006 we were at ~ 87 on the dollar index and the gold price was around 590 - 600.
So right now the ratio is 87 to 710. That is about 110 dollar surplus in price. I know there is other moving parts that determine the spot price of gold, ie India's demand for gold around wedding time etc, but I was wondering if there is any merit of taking this into account in regards to price forecasting.
How I see it is we have a very favorable (inverse) ratio, (think of it as we get more bang for our buck in terms of gold price every time the US dollar index goes down) going on and I am willing to go out on a limb and say we will start seeing the top of the dollar index in 2 weeks time. The dollar has gone up way too high way too fast in conditions that really don't merit it to be this high.
Also another basis for my thesis is that the developing markets are looking like they are making a bottom or nearing a bottom, I am looking at symbol: VWO. The developing markets ETF represents a fairly good inverse of the dollar index, particularly when the dollar index valuation is "we're not doing as bad as russia and china.. etc so therefore money pours into the US dollar."
Now back to price forecasting, my prediction is when the dollar index makes a distinct down trend it is going to go down in a steep fashion. This exacerbates the more bang for our buck concept I outlined above, and if we hit lets say ~ 72 again on the dollar index this time it wont be 1000 it maybe 1500-2000. That kind of price increase coupled with good things going on down in Sierra Leone could really get this stock going I'd guess from .10 to .35 pps at those gold price levels. The reason for such a large range in pps estimation is because it really doesn't take a huge dollar amount to move this kind of stock. If a 10 million dollar buy order were to be placed on SGCP it would send it up lets say 1000%+ whereas if that same 10 million dollars were to be placed on Goldman Sachs it wouldn't even move it a noticeable amount. Also all it really takes is one or two affluent people who want to get down and dirty in this SGCP goodness to really get this thing moving.
Please let me know what you think about my forecasting thesis, I spent a little bit of time revising and trying to be as articulate as I can in this post, thanks.
GLTA
I agree wholeheartedly. Numbers need to be posted so investors can get a basis of their personal valuation. That is why this PR is doing a whole lot of nothing. Also I am leaning towards a month to a month and a half for the ball to get rolling. Wish I had more money to accumulate a larger position :(
GLTA
I said starting, which means I am referring to the near term. I was referring to the 10:20 10:25 down tick in GLD at the time. I am still a long term bull just as you are.
GLTA
Gold is starting to drop like a lead balloon does anyone have any insight why that is.
"The highlight of my trip was the signing of a 20 year lease for the mining rights for a 12 mile concession on the Mano River. We have already seen very small colored and clear diamonds and the texture of the gold seen in very coarse which is considered an indicator of being close to the source. We also expect to complete the deal in Zimmi for the balance of the Mano River this would extend our concession and take us to the Atlantic Ocean with a large white beach area."
Right from the field report.
It is good news none the less and will pay dividends later on, but it is nothing to get too excited about it at this point in time. It is one of those posts that promise potential but no substance, like I have talked about in previous posts. If were lucky we'll hit .006 we will have to see what happens when the news circulates later on in the day. I'm not a pessimist if you get that impression, I am a realist.
GLTA
I believe the majority of the shareholders see huge potential for the company to be a success and that is the reason for the illiquidity in the stock. Right now no one wants to sell their shares at < .005, more than likely the majority of us are averaged in a great deal higher than that and commission rates on pink sheets isn't exactly cheap. So this is what happens when investors have nothing really to grab on to.
Now if we get a PR that says something along the lines of processors in place and are producing, and we have x dollar amount of revenue from mineral extraction, investors have something to grab on to and individual spot valuations of the stock start popping into people's head. Then mix these valuations with emotion of the stock price going up and you get a whole lot of demand and .04 in a week or 2 is very plausible.
GLTA
Well to address the MM manipulation that is partaking I will try my best to explain it. Remember this is my opinion and educated guess, I have no means of confirming or denying anything I am about to say.
First off imagine you had 50+ million shares of SGCP at your disposal, well thats what AUTO and NITE have or thereabouts. Or it could be where AUTO has the supply(a butt load of shares) and NITE does the buying. Their goal is to keep the share price as low as they can and this is how they go about doing it.
Imagine the last traded price of SGCP is .0055 the bid is at .005 and ask is at .0055. Then AUTO comes in and opens an order to sell lets say 5 million shares at .0055, this is basically a great wall of china against the stock price going to the next highest ask price which might be people like you and me selling 50000 shares at .006. Then the psychology factor sets in. When a price level cannot be broken through buyer sentiment decreases and the amount of buyers subsides and the stock price goes lower, where I'm speculating either AUTO or NITE pounce on those lower levels and accumulate more shares but do not have a huge buy order that would trigger a spike in the share price.
To fully understand this concept I think it is prudent to explain what would happen if this manipulation was not in the stock. If there was a large buy demand there may only be a million shares to go through to get to .008 where as if you have this manipulation you have to get through 5 million just to trade sideways.
If this explanation is anyway confusing, I suggest going to stockwire.com and watching their explanation on L2, it is pretty good. If anyone has a different prediction related to MM and/or the stock price I would like to hear it.
GLTA
Low volume is a bad thing; it translates into the stock being illiquid.
Lets just say I want to sell right now(which would be stupid), but I cannot because the lack of buyers then consequently the buyers hold all the cards and the stock price falls lower till it reaches a level where buyers are willing to dip their toe in. Also with an illiquid stock the ask and bid spread widens a great deal.
A rule of thumb that only pertains with this stock and in this time frame of relative inactivity; is if you see a high volume day it is going to be to the upside. If you're skeptical of this prediction watch what happens the next time we have a 16 million day.
You can really tell investor confidence by the volume of posts everyday at ihub. That is a product of nothing going on for awhile.
Like I said were going to have to wait for "the" PR for any pps movement that is worthwhile, talkin .02 in a week or 2 after a great PR.
GLTA
Accum / Distrib
By the way we are seeing some nice demand in the gold market I haven't seen it trade like this in awhile.
There is not dilution, if you were looking at T&S and/or L2 it is pretty blatant when dilution is taking place.
At the end of july when there was confirmed dilution taking place, trades were getting filled in a matter of seconds during the day since they are selling x amount of shares of SGCP basically as a market order.
The reason why we are trading at the range we are is a combination of reasons. I'm going to say that 60% of the problem is NITE and AUTO have been manipulative in their trading and kept the stock in the .005 - .007 range(this includes the shorting idea). The other 40% is the communication factor.
What people tend to forget is shorting works both ways. If the shorts are proven wrong we will have higher price movement since they will need to cover(buy demand) and get out of their short position.
The only thing that is going to get this stock moving is, and you can quote me all you want on this is a blockbuster PR that deals with a large revenue stream in place(e.g. processors put in place and are in operation). People are sick of PRs that only contain potential and no substance. Which is the reason why the last PR didn't do a whole lot, $1100 of substance and only potential in the other part of the PR.
All you can do is average down and wait, about the only thing that will get this stock moving without a PR is a booming gold market.
GLTA
All we need is a PR that gets down to the meat and potatoes of the business, a PR that grants opportunity of millions of dollars in revenue over time. If we have a 20 million day with no PR I guarentee it wont get past .0075, it just wont happen. Everyone who trades this stock knows the range it has been and will sell a portion of their shares when it hits the top of that range since that has been proven to work several times.
No AH trades, about 1 million shares traded in the last 10 minutes.
I wouldn't look too much into the ask price after close, it is probably people who had sell orders good till the end of the day and all of them expired but not someone at .009.
A fairly good volume day for a friday IMO, wish I had some cash laying around to pick up a few more shares. BTW thanks bikeguy for the pampana trenching picture, more posts like that the better.
Accumulation Chart
Haha I hear ya, I've put all my money in here as well.
Watch this video http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=hal+turner+amero&emb=0&aq=f&aq=0&oq=hal+turner# tell me what you think. I think he is way off the deep end but brings up important issues and why you should be in gold. I do not think the US dollar is going to collapse and become worthless by February 2009 or at anytime soon but the government spending will make gold a desirable asset. I think the hot trade of 2009 will be gold.
I like the recent stablity in the gold market, it broke out of its steep downward trend. I think the 1200 POG by year end is a little outlandish but if the direction is up I think 1000 is within grasp. I still believe the gold price has a major influence on this stock, if these recent PR's came out with 1000+ POG we would be at a nickel. Hopefully the gold traders making all those december/january calls are right and we will easily be in dime territory.
GLTA