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Well OK, but the only thing "they" could do during the early part of the window was to make it impossible to sell the option at a profit. The options interest that is still outstanding at the close tomorrow night will cost the options writers money if they are in the money at that time.
Take the 297,953 QQQQ puts at $36 that are outstanding right now. Since each options contract is for 100 shares of the underlying security, wouldn't that represent 29,795,300 shares of QQQQ that the options writers could be forced to buy at $36/share at any time prior to expiration at tomorrow's close? If so, the cost to the options writers would be nearly thirty million dollars for every dollar by which QQQQ is below the strike price at the time the option is exercised. That seems like a pretty powerful incentive to try to prop the price up until then.
Of course, wanting to prop it up, and being able to, are two different things. <G>
On the other hand, if QQQQ closes much below 36 tomorrow, that's going to put an awful lot of puts in the money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=QQQQ
GS, that's right.
http://www.npg.si.edu/exh/journal/cohen.htm
"I had a bunch of OB this morning, but so far, only KLAC too at $42.82..."
I assume you meant $44.82?
What's your price target on KLAC?
Haven't heard from you in a while. You still voting for a trading range?
2040 is history.
I didn't know that trading with fractions was still possible.
That is a refinement of what I've seen you post previously on the theory, so it's possible that it may encompass the exceptions I referred to in my other post.
The thing that bothers me about HFTOM is that when I looked for exceptions, the ones I found were at major turns. That led me to conclude that it is just another way of saying that momentum persists until it doesn't.
AMAT reports tomorrow after the close. Where do you see the SOX going from here?
Thanks - I feel better now!
Why would that make them toast?
"a breakout above 30.00."
Well, that's done. <G>
Sorry, I guess I misunderstood.
Good analysis. If the Democrats had nominated a stronger candidate, perhaps that kind of thing would have been discussed.
I'm having a hard time seeing correlation (contrary or otherwise) between that indicator and subsequent market performance.
Sounds like Cheney has decided to be a liberal. <G>
I think the implication of large deficits is eventually an upward pressure on either interest rates or inflation, depending on how aggressive the Fed is on containing the latter. Seems to me that neither is good for business long term, but I don't think the market looks that far ahead.
That is at odds with the recollection of the former Social Security employee who was interviewed at the link that I provided. What is the source for your information?
It's all Johnson's fault. He's the one who started counting Social Security as part of the federal budget. That's the event that has allowed people to forget that the money that has been borrowed from Social Security is every bit as much of an obligation as, say, a T-Bill.
I found an interesting interview with someone who worked in the SSA during that period, and it's interesting that she says almost no one within SSA thought the change was a good idea at the time. (Play the audio clip or search on the phrase "not in".)
http://www.ssa.gov/history/millie1.html
Thanks very much for posting that. I've been seeing some discussions of this on another board, and now I have something intelligent to link to.
I'm interested.
Justa, I only see a forecast for the first quarter in that post.
Well, it's a moot point by now, but when we were discussing it yesterday evening, I was talking about the following four daily lows on the NDX:
Jan 11: 1,545.28
Jan 12: 1,543.04
Jan 13: 1,543.48
Jan 19: 1,545.63
In other words, if we were counting Jan. 19th, then we had to count Jan 11th as well.
In any case, if a triple bottom is unlikely, then I presume a quadruple bottom is even more so.
True, but from that point of view, this is a quadruple bottom.
But the NDX didn't get to 1544 today.
I would also like to see the evidence that fast food "causes" obesity. The fact that many people are getting good results with low carb diets really puts a crimp in that theory.
So I take it that you consider holders of leaps to be less likely to influence the market? Would that be based on an assumption that they would be less likely to trade, or is there some other reason?
On the other hand, when you plug QQQQ into this site, it comes out even lower, at 37.625, based on data from today.
Thanks. It's amazing that it can move so fast in the space of one trading day.
According to this we are still above Max Pain:
http://www.ez-pnf.com/maxpain/mp1517.htm
Does the fact that the lower BB was pierced rather than merely tagged invalidate the scenario of bouncing from here?
In that case, nice call on the COMP tag of the lower BB.
Does it still count as a BB tag if it overshoots by 9?
Zeev, would you care to venture a prediction for the first trading day of the year?
R
You should take your own advice.
What's the matter, is the ignore feature not implemented for free memberships?
It's been interesting to watch Max Pain at work on QQQQ today. The latter got pulled down almost to its low of a week ago Thursday, while the NDX only went down to its level of last Friday. Seems like that's a difference that can't last.
QQQQ and SPX max pain at 39 and 1150, respectively. However, the market will be up big tomorrow, because I sold a couple of trading positions.
Justa, do you attach any significance to the SPX exceeding last Winter's high today? (New 52-week high)