Looks like a RAIM scalp opportunity upon us - about 50% long for manana

Hey Steve,

Maybe a 6% portfolio drawdown - will need to do the math as I withdrew some money for lifestyle improvement.

I was looking over that list of sectors that you gave me awhile back - not really any big winners today.

Back into cash after scoring a measly 0.7%

We went to Palm Springs - hot as hell, but great deals at resort hotels. Kids we're swimming the entire time.

I am looking to escape the long today, anticipating a resumption of selling. Just watch, they'll selloff at the close and NDX will finish at about +0.5% - this is the weird no mans land where buying, selling and staying put all make sense . . .

Good luck with mobile telecom . . .

50% long position today - RAIM scalp.

Well,

Going on vacation tomorrow, so I thought that todays modest selloff would be a good time to end this misery.

Will be scalping with a Bullish slant for the time being. Additional selling tomorrow could intiate a long scalp trade . . .

The 56 was as high as it got on July 15 and also July 16. Since then the reading has been meandering primarily from the upper 20's to upper 40's, however the past 3 days it has dropped into the teens as internal up vs. down ratios havent been as extreme.

The fact that reading have been so high so long, I really can't read much into it. My data only goes back to 1999.

There was a similar period in late 1999 which ultimately lead to the final market top in early 2000.

Late 2002 there was a stretch which moved the NDX from 804 on 10/7 to 1125 on 11/27 before backing down to 985 on 12/31.

Our V-bottom from earlier this year might resemble 1987, but I have no data for that period.

Wow I was ready to "capitulate" early this morning.

Sorry for not updating you on the readings. I am extremely busy on the day job these days and sometimes I don't do daily updates particularly if there is no need. Problem is if I do not update daily, then I need to download the historical internals info from Masterdata, which requires some massaging.

I typically trade off of the 5-day reading, however I also track 3, 10 and 20. The 10-DMA was red for 6 days straight - I have conditional formatting for readings > +30.

Nothing like that since 2004 - in fact 2007 and 2008 this redzone was not hit once.

Markets rallied some and I'm still holding shorts!

I may be vacating the short today - much of the OB has been worked off over the past 4 trading days.

Lessee how the final hour shapes up.

Despite todays gain (assuming markets stay down) I look to take a sizable loss on the trade.

Well this is getting painful - markets continue to remain significantly OB.

I guess this is how DaBoys are playing the game now.

The short play pretty much going according to the roadmap, which I had hoped it wouldn't.

As OB conditions continue to run way hot, I doubled down to 100% per the plan.

We may get as much as a 1.5% pullback tomorrow, which would follow the map pretty well.

Hi Steve,

My 5 day OB/OS indicator closed at +56. I have conditional formatting set to highlight any instances >55. There are only about 15 since Y2K, with about 10 of those instances between 2001 and 2003.

If the pattern hold to form, tomorrow will be a modest up day, followed by a downer the following day. The downer can be huge or modest (in the 1% area).

The RAIM 5 day Up-Down ratio is at +48

This is pretty steep. I'm in for a 50% short split between SPX and NDX.

No guarantee it will plunge tomorrow though. If it goes up again, I will double down, per the strategy that I developed a few years ago.

I haven't checked my numbers yet, but I'm guessing a RAIM short will be in the cards.

Nice Job Steve!

I will take 2.25% on the day, and back to cash.

Hoping that we'll see a little more volatility going forward.

Well good luck to us.

I will be in a meeting at market closing time, so I just put in my sell order now.

As it stands now, I'm looking at a new high.

Just stayed put at 100%.

Todays action took the edge off the OS conditions.

Looks like they're sellng the main indices into the close.

Gives the illusion that tomorrow will be weak. Maybe it will, but Da Boyz love to use this setup for a ramp.

Oh yeah - congrats on the new ATH Steve!

Nicely done Steve. I had the notion to switch over to some Intl's yesterday. No balls no glory.

Markets not making the decisions easy these days - with NDX and SPX up only a half-percent, I guess I will have to scale it back. But there's plenty of time left to bust a move either direction.

Haha as soon as I posted markets went north and I finished on the upside by .2 or so.

Unchanged still 100% long.

NAMO and NYMO getting down there pretty deep.

Will see how the close shapes up, but at this point I will look to bump it up into margin.

100% long via SPX and NDX funds.

I bailed on that short and took a porfolio hit of perhaps 1%. I have been in cash since, waiting for the market to come to me.

Today is shaping up like a nice long entry - RAIM is nicely into OS.

Markets starting to get interesting again - taking a decidedly bearish tone . .

Nice work with the full short.

I just kept the same 30% short position, so just recovered a little.

I'm working in the grey area here Steve.

I have Bull market long and short criteria and Bear market criteria. But I do not have an means of determining when to switch from Bull to Bear - thats the art/interpretation vs. the science.

At this point I've switched to a Bear market interpretation, in which case a baseline short position is justified.

Entered a small short position on Friday, under the belief that there is a little more work to do on the downside prior to a relief rally/bounce.

Nice work with the short euter!

Despite todays selling, oversold levels are not sufficient to take a long stake.

That weekly SPX chart shows the inverse Head-and-Shoulders forming nicely. If it continues to play out, it would appear to target 800 in about 6 weeks.

I will investigate and take a short position for the ride down if I can get over my fear of long-term shorts.

The RAIM scalp was never closed. Last week there was the significant OS position resulting from the selloff on Wednesday, which was followed by Thursdays rebound.

Although I went to cash that day, the RAIM scalp was still open as the deep OS from the day before prompted more upside down the road. I correctly played the outcome (the Friday selloff), however again I didn't go in big enough to make any serious coin.

Will return to cash today.

For the record I went long at the close on Friday 50% NDX/SPX.

In updating RAIM, the model is actually still moderately OS. I will look for a down day manana to re-establish the long scalp.

I will be rooting for that downer tomorrow.

If as you say the markets are near a top for the year, all I can say is that it was quite an opportunity that I wasted. Given that, my port has returned to another local post-crash high. Todays gains have covered the minor short loss from earlier in the month.

With continued strength into the close, I will dump and go back to cash. Got a Dr appt so will need to make the call earlier than normal.

Pretty Good OS levels today - I went in for 60% long.

Well today might be a good day to inch into the market, we'll fire up the models . . .

-Warren

Yeah I've been losing market focus lately, but its time to update the models again as we may be getting a decent buy signal soon.

Just laying low here with cash.

This runup seems like a trap. Of course I could be wrong, and it would be nice to make $$ on the upside, but I'm more interested in preserving capital.

There was a day like this several weeks ago that I recall discussing with Kanuti or Roca.

Started out with guns ablazin and then tanked into the close, still finishing positive though. I suggested that Da Boys were doing a misdirection and would take it back up tomorrow. I think Kanuti was playing it otherwise.

At least on that day I won out.

Still maintaining short position. OB conditions getting worked off - now near neutral.