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Tomorrow is the big day!
Results after the close.
Conference call at 5PM.
I hope they beat the estimates.
But I really hope they have the loan losses more under control.
I'm in the same boat.
But I'm not as confident as you. LOL!
Some signs of life finally.
Maybe we'll get an earnings run.
Back over $2 by the 27th?
No longer connected to oil prices?
Solars used to loosely follow the price of oil. Lately that hasn't been the case.
I wonder what changed.
There you are!
This thing has been acting really squirrely.
I scalped a dime yesterday but am really having a hard time figuring it out.
Had to bail.
I don't know why it's so weak but it looks like it might roll south again and sell volume is way up today.
AA smashed estimates after the bell.
I'm now assuming we hit DOW 10,000 by lunchtime next wednesday.
Be out by then or face the triple witch.
I'm still looking for $4.50 on JASO by then.
The chart's pretty beat up.
I'm in at $3.95 today.
Looking for $4.50 within a week or so.
Oil over $70 shouldn't hurt any.
That $3.55 is looking better all the time.
If the jobs number tomorrow is really bad I might lower it a skosh.
Just be patient and see what happens.
We're not likely to catch "the bottom". I rarely ever come close. I prefer to buy stuff on its way back up from "the bottom". You can miss the first 10% and still make alot of money if you can do it consistently and use stops properly to eliminate the emotional side of the trade.
Or just in cash.
I don't see shorting ETFC as a viable option. Why bother with all the buyout rumors etc.
$1.70 has been broken for now and with the employment report tomorrow I suspect the market in general will head lower from here, taking ETFC with it.
We'll see. Next support if it does head lower is between $1.50 and $1.55 which isn't all that far away now.
The trading between 2-4PM today will set the tone for tomorrow.
Depends on who you ask.
Read the previous few posts. We were discussing whether $1.55 or $1.35 or even $1.20 would be the next real support levels.
As weak as ETFC has been acting, I would be shocked if $1.70 holds short term.
But that's just me.
I think $1.50 still looks more likely.
But that really depends on the overall market. If we finally get a much needed and very healthy 10-15% correction in the markets then ETFC could go all the way back down to $1.20ish. We've all seen many times how fast it can drop.
The other interesting thing is whether it will make any kind of earnings run this quarter. I'll be watching for that. We have roughly 4 weeks to wait for the quarterly results. Last quarter those that held over earnings got spanked. How many will place those same bets this time?
Tomorrow and Friday are both big news days so I'm playing with almost all cash at this point hoping for the correction.
A number of the government subsidies are soon running out so unless they get extended I think the economic numbers will head south again. The most notable of these is the first time buyer home credit which is like $8K. If that doesn't get extended then I think that will have a major impact on housing and the markets in general.
Do you believe that?
Seems to me that if a buyout were going to happen between now and the end of the year that they would have kept those shares. Assuming a minimum buyout price between $2.50 and $3.
This Week's 5 Dumbest Stock Moves
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/09/25/this-weeks-5-dumbest-stock-moves.aspx
5. When the E*TRADE Baby turns three
The only thing worse than a nonsensical buyout rumor is putting a timeline on one that makes perfect sense.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Michael Vinciquerra shot down the notion that E*TRADE (Nasdaq: ETFC) isn't an attractive acquisition target until it gets past its mortgage lending uncertainties.
"Buying on a takeover possibility might be a good idea 10-12 months from now, but we think it's foolhardy in the near term," he noted earlier this week.
The problem with that kind of projection is that it's a lose-lose call. If a rival discount broker really wants E*TRADE for its growing brokerage business, they're going to jump in now while the uncertainty creates an attractive price point, and a desperate management team would be more likely to accept a deal. If they wait for the clouds to clear, E*TRADE will be trading much higher and have much less reason to cash out.
Even the E*TRADE Baby knows that.
E*Trade's Largest Investor Trims Stake
By Laurie Kulikowski 09/25/09 - 03:18 PM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- E*Trade Financial's (ETFC Quote) largest debt and equity holder, Citadel Investment Group, completed a debt-for-equity conversion this week, along with a sale of common stock that at least one observer says is to be expected.
Citadel sold roughly 85 million shares over the past three days and converted an equivalent amount of debt on Wednesday and Thursday, according to a Schedule 13D filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.
The large hedge fund manager sold the shares at prices ranging from $1.70 to $2.08, according to the filing. Citadel made gross proceeds from the stock sale of $162.5 million, according to Sandler O'Neill & Partners analyst Rich Repetto.
Citadel said in the filing that it entered into the sale transaction "for the purpose of managing its aggregate exposure" to E*Trade. A spokeswoman referred TheStreet to language used in the filing.
At the same time, Citadel also tendered $87.9 million worth of Class A debentures, converting them into 84.9 million shares of common stock at an exercise price of $1.03 per share.
Following the conversions and sales, Citadel held approximately $941.7 million worth of E*Trade's Class A Debentures and approximately166.2 million shares of common stock, the filing said.
Citadel's latest shuffling of the deck of its holdings in E*Trade comes as the online broker wrapped up its own "at the market" offering earlier this week, selling a total of 80.2 million shares to raise $150 million. (Sandler O'Neill acted as the agent for the deal.)
E*Trade originally announced a recapitalization program in June, after regulators urged the company to boost capital levels at its floundering bank subsidiary. As part of the plan, debt holders -- including Citadel -- would exchange $1.7 billion worth of debt for equity. A company spokesperson confirmed this latest Citadel transaction falls under that plan.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10603691/1/etrades-largest-investor-trims-stake.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Wish me luck on it again!
Did well last time and reloaded for another run.
JASO is all the way back down to $4 again. Support is $3.80 and $3.50 and I saved some cash to buy some shares this time. I'll probably set a limit order at $3.55 and see what happens.
Good luck guys!
It has some support at $1.70.
The 20EMA is $1.71 too.
Better support is at $1.54 and the 50EMA is $1.57.
I'm looking to reload also.
I guess the thing to do is watch the overall market and that should tell us what to do.
They took it up to place those shares.
It's no coincidence that since they completed the placement it has dropped like a rock.
I'm left wondering if this isn't going all the way back down to $1.50.
Thoughts?
7:31AM E*TRADE completed its previously announced At The Market common stock offering (ETFC) 1.92 : Co announced that it has completed its previously announced At The Market (ATM) common stock offering. Pursuant to this offering, the Company sold 80,226,756 shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $150 million, resulting in net proceeds of ~$147 million after deducting commissions and offering expenses.
That prediction is looking pretty solid.
I guess $1.80 is the closest support.
That doesn't do me any good.
Now, if you tell me yesterday that there's going to be a P&D article today, that I can use - LOL!
Most of my money's in ETFC now anyway.
$2.07 pre market!
With all of the buyout rumors this could scoot to $2.50 really quick.
Who's going to short into this kind of situation? You'd have to be crazy.
I bought for the buyout.
And I bought alot of shares [for me].
I am hoping for $3 but more would be fine. LOL!
Yeah, the hard part is breaking $2.
Once it does it should move up pretty fast from there.
She's breaking out on a big volume spike!
Next stop is $2.
A good read IMO about E-Trade.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/162478-why-e-trade-is-a-must-buy?source=yahoo
"I fully believe ETFC will be bought before the end year. I expect ETFC's stock price will trend above $2 over the next week."
"Now at $1.84, ETFC may soon receive a buyout offer. The people I speak with guess $3 to $4 a share will be the offer and could come any day."
Cool.
I hopped back out of ETFC this morning.
I'm now looking for a small pullback to enter both again.
You must have hopped back in.
The market sure has no fear right now.
I went with ETFC instead. That thing is on a roll and the chart looks great.
I saved some money in case this one goes back down a bit.
If it can break $2, it'll get interesting.
All of the signs sure seem to point to a buyout.
Good move if you sold when you edited that!
They yanked it hard and quick.
It's having alot of trouble with $4.
I'm back out for now waiting to see which way the wind blows.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Donald Layton, chairman and chief executive of E-Trade Financial Corp. will leave the firm at the end of the year, E-Trade said on Wednesday. Layton "will have delivered on his commitment to the board...to oversee a recapitalization of E-Trade's balance sheet and lead a restructuring effort that has set the company's online brokerage business back on a growth trajectory," said the firm in a statement. E-Trade said it plans to name a successor to Layton before the end of the year. Shares of E-Trade were up roughly 4% in pre-market trading.
$3.83
Looks like some solar short covering.
About time!
It's on the way to $3 this morning already.
I'll be really tempted at $2.75.
At some point there will be one of those big short covering rallies and we won't want to miss that.
Thanks.
If $3.50 fails I have JASO going to $3 as next support.
Let me know if that jives with your charts.
As weak as it is today I'm assuming it's going to at least $3.
Well, there went the bottom for now.
I need something else to play.
Anyone have a couple favorites they could share that have volume?
Solar downgrade today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of-the-Bell-Solar-apf-3707300197.html?x=0&.v=1
Ahead of the Bell: Solar stocks pressured by price
Analyst says solar industry faces rising pressure from falling solar panel prices, demand
On Tuesday August 25, 2009, 9:21 am EDT
Companies:Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.First Solar, Inc.JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Solar panel prices and demand for solar modules will likely decline in the coming quarters, which will lead to a slowdown in production capacity and the overall solar industry said an analyst on Tuesday.
Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar said he expects panel prices to decline to $1.50 per watt by the second quarter of 2010, down from $2.35 per watt in the second quarter of 2009. At this lower level, and with polysilicon prices around $50 per kilogram on long term contracts, he expects manufacturing capacity to pull back. Polysilicon is a key raw material used in the production of solar cells.
In the near term, Kumar said he prefers Trina Solar Ltd. and Renesola Ltd. given their cheap shares and competitive cost structures. Also, Kumar believes these companies will benefit from China's new feed-in tariff, which will pay for electricity generated by renewable resources. Kumar expects the Chinese government to introduce the tariff in the near future. Kumar rates Trina Solar and ReneSola "Outperform."
Shares of Trina Solar rose 68 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $26.99 in premarket trading. Renesola shares climbed 24 cents, or 4.5 percent, to $5.53 before the opening bell.
Elsewhere in the industry, Kumar rates Energy Conversion Devices, First Solar Inc. and JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. "Neutral." Shares of Energy Conversion Devices fell 24 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $12.20; First Solar shares rose 82 cents to $124.90 and JA Solar shares increased 3 cents to $3.85 before the opening bell.
Anyone feel a crash coming?
One of those 500-700 point DOW down days?
It just feels to me like the market is drifting higher for really no good reason on very light volume.
I stopped out of my JASO for a modest gain on Monday.
I'm tempted to re-enter right around here as $3.73 has held 3 times in the last 10 days. Of course, if that fails then all bets are off again short term. What to do, what to do.
Both stochastics are at 5 on my charts.
That's about as oversold as anything ever gets.
And I have the RSI at 36 which is also very low.
Still, I might be early and end up bailing for a small loss. Assuming it doesn't gap down and trap me.