BY weakness, I mean some selling from the open, which will be very strong open.

One could play puts but you will have to be fast in and out.

Just guessing.

Did enter one losing trade, Z puts at 0.72 for 1.15, but it was small, likely it will close at 0. The calls were 600 contracts total, the puts were 50 contracts.

In reality, I wouldn't try and trade Z options since they are so thin and the spreads so wide. Just wanted to see if I could make money at them.

Using a demo account, I bought SPY calls.

SPY 179 at 0.71, will sell at 1.40
SPY 179.5 @ 0.45, sell at 1.10
SPY 180 at 0.26, sell at 0.55
SPY 189.5 at 0.20 and 0.15, average 0.17, sell at 0.30.

All I did was enter orders for prices I predicted it would go down to at the end of the day.

They should all double at least, I entered the sell orders yesterday, but now it looks like we will at least touch 181, or look like it will, so I will raise the price I am selling at.

Didn't matter what the jobs report says, this was set up to rally today.

Only thing in question is how will the rally play out today?

Kind of think some weakness in first 1/2, then rally more, close the day fairly strong. Head fakes to the downside, but we are all set to rally today.

I think big rally on Friday, SPY above 181.

But when they start to taper, it isn't the amount, it's the idea that they are reducing.

So I would bet on a pretty big correction at that point.

I wouldn't buy calls ahead of time, maybe it tanks or isn't as big as if feels it could be.

You do know at some point that isn't useful.

The market could correct 30%, then good news is good news.

well, paper trading I bought 112 at 0.57, but I would tend to sell them at 0.74.

While I think the low of the day for these puts was 0.55.

I would like to see the IWM get to 112.50 before really hitting the puts.

Any thoughts on this?

I think if we get a big rally in the AM on Friday, it might be a good opp for puts. Or we could get a tank first 20 min, then it takes off. Either way I would tend to play the opposite this time.

No matter what the numbers are on jobs, the Fed is waiting till next year to taper.

IMO the market is more set up to rally on this jobs report.

5 days down, puts stay expensive, charts are indicating to me that yesterday was the climax selling. Mini climax, going below the daily the BB (9 period) usually means a reversal.

However, I believe the IWM has peaked and will be the weakest index going forward.

The way this market drops, not much support IMO. It recovers, but I don't think there is a lot of buying support.

It's more like lack of selling that keeps the market up.

IMO we will recover to test the highs at least.

But the AM could be some downturn before it turns up. Hard to tell isn't it?

No doubt you are still following how high that call went.

Now trading at 16.50, odd how a 4 times gain now looks like selling cheap when it is now up over time 11 times your 1.45 buy price.

I know how hard it is to hold a winner after it is up 4 times. But sometimes option are just plain crazy.

dotnet Good call on TSLA hitting 140 today, I thought maybe 136 - 137 would be the limit.

tsla looks good, but this week I think maybe 136 not up to 140 so soon.

the 128 call maybe 8-9.

But some give back in the first 1/2 hours, so hard to say sell and buy back or hold till late in the day.

A lot of the shorts are short boxed longs at higher prices. I think they do this to better control the float.

So they can call in stock from real shorts, or cover driving prices higher without actually buying.

I have seen where 120% of the float was long and 30% short. The only way that can happen is if longs and shorts are the same people.

Then they can play with options to make money, controlling the trading in the stock.

This sure is no market for shorts/puts.

It will be at some point, but right now it's a thinly traded move up on light volume.

I have seen more bullish markets, this one is a sort of gentle bull.

btw, this vix trade expires in March 2014, while everyone here is a day trader.

If the Vix spikes up in late Feb, it won't help anyone trade this week in Nov.

The large Vix trade was reported in Barons, probably other places.

Who knows, I have seen similar trades reported for the last 30 years of trading.

They don't work out any better than a coin flip, meaning 50/50/

The trade could have been put on as hedge against a larger long position in the SPY. With protection, maybe someone is using leverage to buy up the SPY.

Then maybe not much downside till an hour after the open on Monday next week.

But if we can count on NFLX making it back to it's 389 high and AMZN hitting close to 400, calls will still have some gains left.

It's only a question of when with AMZN, and I think 70% likely NFLX hits 380 sometime this year.

Then maybe not much downside till an hour after the open.

But if we can count on NFLX making it back to it's 389 high and AMZN hitting close to 400, calls will still have some gains left.

It's only a question of when with AMZN, and I think 70% likely NFLX hits 380 sometime this year.

Holiday week, I think maybe no significant downside on weeklies.

There is 1.5 days less to expiry, if they can keep everything high that is going up, puts all expire worthless.

roy Too bad you sold GOOG puts, GOOg did go down enough to make them work 0.50. But you did get a nice profit. EDIT and now it looks like they go to zero at the end the day.

I am very surprised the IWM keeps moving up despite stocks a lot of smaller cap stocks moving down.

well, IWM already did that.

I am not trading, limited upside and who knows if there is any downside today at all.

I would say right now, its maybe 5% change of even a minor pullback. I wouldn't be surprised if 111.70 staying the low for now on IWM for the rest of the day.


I see no indication anyone is scared of the market going down very much. Meaning they often buy puts, but no one is.

I still think IWM is likely to go to at least 111.50,but that isn't much of a move down.

interesting market, it like they sell 100 shares at a time, if they buy 10 it goes back up right away.

No energy on the down side, and a very bi=polar market. Either up or down all day long, seldom any reversals after the first 1/2 hour.

I think goog isn't likely, but 4.5 is a tiny percentage move on GOOG. You wouldn't even see it on a 3 month chart.

I was thinking IWM 112 puts at 0.35 is likely to go to 0.50, making IWM 111.5.

Most likely nearer the end of the trading day.

calls mostly doubled / tripled just today. Like the IWM 111 call. Amzn calls, etc. How many puts do that, not many.

Not really easy, but a lot more gain than most puts. One needs to time puts on some sort of news day, you can almost never hold them overnight, while you can hold calls overnight.

It appears to me the most manipulation is an attempt to get stocks to sell off to be able to buy a dip.

Thus more difficult.

This is like the 2000 market, up till it's down, when it really breaks it will be a little like TSLA.

The problem is, everyone on this board with the exception of Beer trying to buy puts 95% of the time. Very difficult in a huge bull market.

I stay away from apple, as it trades as a value stock.

When the market needs cash, they sell apple to buy high beta stocks like AMZN.

When then sell stocks like AMZN or the iwm, the next day apple usually goes up. IBM is someone similar.

They seem to keep rotating like this, but not selling enough to cause an actual downturn.

This is what it looks like to this desk.

If I were in charge of the FED, I would have no idea of how to taper with creating a 50% downside in the market.

That is the sort of risk that is possible. Just not now.

people just don't want to sell at current price, or more likely the current time of the year.

Downside is mostly controlled by the longs.

Ok Roy

I do agree with this, which is not easy for me to do.

Roy

Roy I could also see some weakness in the IWM trading today.

But how did you come up with 70% probability and a specific number like 110.40?

Not from this.

=================================================
15-MINUTE indicators:

1) RSI(14) lower high (barely during today)
2) Wm%R(14) breaking below -20 (finally)
3) TSI (25,13,7) hooking over from high and crossing
4) Nine consecutive topping candles, buyers exhausted?
5) MACD hooked over, crossed and histogram approaching zero
6) STO 5,5 hooked over and dropped below 80
7) STO 14,3 hooking over above 80
8) Chaiken has declined substantially most of the day, diverging from the advancing price.

Pretty favorable set, but far from greatly convincing. I judge these indicators to show a 70% probability that IWM will touch 110.4 or lower tomorrow, which would result in a price (trade) for the 111 puts of .60.

Not that it is an indication of trading on Friday, but the IWM 111 puts in after hours was 20x22.

So someone could have bought at 22. I don't think IWM trades down below 110.75 - 110.65 on Friday. That was where it traded down today under some selling.

I was thinking this is also likely. About 0.60 on those puts is possible.

I should have held, but can't take the loss.

And it's still likely they open down from current levels.

There is no particular reason to spark selling on Friday, maybe mid day it sells off.

BTW, you held them, but didn't buy more and would have rather sold them all at the price you bought them at.

My guess is that those IWM 111 puts open up around 0.15 on friday.

Unless carl I tweets all night long about selling and we gap lower.

BTW, the only way these puts on IWM work out IMO is if there is a selloff Friday.

No idea if IWM sells off enough, but chancy to hold puts into Friday.

IWM could make an all time high, either today or Friday.

If there is any selloff, it will come at the last 20-30 min of trading.

I lost more today than any other day.

The problem I had was yesterday I was scared to buy more puts at the lows, and sold the puts I did have for a small profit.

Then bot calls, but only make a fraction of what I lost today.

Then since I am limited to only 3 days trades, I kept buying puts lower hoping to average out even though I saw the trend. I wanted to buy calls near the close yesterday, but couldn't because of pattern day trader limits.

I bot IWM 111 puts at an average of 67 and sold them at 0.25, near the lows of today. No doubt in my mind it won't that that, even if they expire worthless. And any selling won't be big, and it won't last long. IMO.


I really wish I never attempted option trading.

What kills me I was right about the selloff, right about todays rally. My big mistakes were not taking advantage of the selloff nor of the rally. But trying to fight he market when it's going up and buy when it's going down.

At this point, I am not sure I will ever be able to get things right.

Just wanted to point out how I make some poor decisions even though I am often right. I am hugely disappointed in myself.

take care all