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Hi learn...no, not taking the down signal. I have been waiting for the week to close. The weekly has been flirting with showing a positive close, and possible reversal.
The MVV/MZZ, being a leveraged instrument, sometimes does not follow lock-step with the base index (MID).....for whatever reason..I'm not smart enough or willing to delve deep enough to understand exactly why. The discrepancies resolve over a couple days, so it is not a huge concern.
Having said that, I look at the MID index renkos often for direction. The MID is within tenths of a percent on the weekly of giving a uptrend reversal. I will watch to see if that strength holds into the weeks close. The daily mid has been long for awhile based on the Trix...and so I have been long since July 17. When there was some weakness about a week later, I went half to cash on July 28..then back to full long on the next white brick..and have stayed there following the Trix signal, even though another red brick has followed.
I guess you could say my finger has been on the trigger ready to short, but the improving weekly, plus the Trix on the daily, has kept me long.
I don't know if that will be wise decisions or not, but that is the course I have followed. Regards.
euterpe...change the daily to weekly..using the same box size. Note how the whipsaws mostly disapper. Interesting, no??
mvp has done real well...it's a great system.
That said, why not put 100% of your account into the mvp signal? Steve is good, but even he cannot guarantee that future performance will be profitable, let alone as profitable as history has shown. I think it is probable that mvp will perform pretty much as it has in the past..which is to say, great.
I trade my retirement accounts..I believe it is prudent to diversify between methods, as well as instruments. The renko system is a plodder...I have satisfied myself that unless an entire year consists of whips up and down of only a week or two in duration, the renko trends will return 25-60% year in, year out. That return, on the amount that I invest, is sufficient to provide a comfortable living for my wife and I. The amount I invest following mvp provides the extra money to help others more through humanitarian church contributions, and yes..new cars, trips, etc.
I have never experienced a year in which there were not several nice long trends, but instead, endless whips......perhaps there will occur such a year. I wonder how mvp will respond in such a hypothetical year? MVP seems to rely on trends as well..but, it is much more predictive, while the renko system is reactive. Regards.
Hey learn..I think the candlestick and indicators could profitably be used for confirmation.
You're right about the weekly being a delay.....but if the market is just churning day to day..and no real trend developed..the elimination of whipsaws on the daily might well make up for the "losses" due to a delay in getting a reversal signal.
To evaluate yield (if I were to capture all of the trend perfectly, as shown on the chart)..I count the bricks up and down..always subtracting at turns for the fact that for at least two brick you are in the "wrong" instrument. Most of my evaluations have shown the weekly is surprisingly close in yield to the daily..and maybe with less angst. Regards.
did I say that I hate whips..and am on a quest to find the best way to deal with them?
learning..I think it wise to learn from any more recent market action (as well as the historical, of course). For those of us trading indexes using daily renkos...and taking into account the increased volatility swings intraday..it seems like the weekly chart smooths the whipsaws, and yet captures the primary trend.
For instance..on a given Monday, the index (2X) jumps up 2%..the next day there is a 3% drop..Wednesday, there is a jump of 6%..Thursday is up 2%..Friday is a drop of 4%.
The net effect is a rise for the week of 3%..but the daily has probably given a whipsaw brick..less likely for the weekly. Yet, when the weekly trend is established, it probably is more likely to be a trend, and not a whipsaw.
I am looking at a brick size of 1.5 on MVV, using that size on both the daily and weekly. Comments welcomed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09699286921&a=145237717&listNum=1
Hi Sammy..yeah, I moved over here. I was surprised to find that there were a couple people on the old board just waiting for a whipsaw to occur, so that they could ridicule me. A whipsaw did, and they did. Life is too short and happy, to put up with that. The funny thing is, that the two involved seem to be wrong as often as anyone on the board. Ah well...who knows what problems they may have(?).
Good to see you Sammy..this appears to be a more proper venue for talking about Renko. Regards.
Hi learning..good to see you over here. You are one of a few if you have the patience to let part of your portfolio just go with the flow of the Renkos. I know you trade in other methods as well. Good luck in all of your trading. Regards.
ron..sounds like we are singing on the same sheet of music..even if I am off-key, as usual.
Yeah..I have used the same 2 box reversal on P&F charts for years. If we had the Renko charts, life would have been easier, and doubtless, more profitable.
The very versatility of the charts means there are a lot of things to explore..I keep getting new ideas to try, and like all new ideas..they need to be evaluated over multiple periods of the market.
I will share one for you that is in it's infancy..in trying to predict likelihood of a reversal. This is a chart of the NYA (the big institutions trade a lot on this index). I have an overlay of $NYHL:$NYTOT (the NY high-low/NY total)..notice how the moves above and below "0" (zero) often mark a reversal point.
btw..since you are vision-impaired..is there a particular chart background that makes it easier for you to view? This is the night view..if it is difficult, I will change it. Regards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81547755397&listNum=1&a=131155112
water...StockChart user myself, as I think the majority here are also..I have no opinion on what you asked.
ron...I read the two posts you referenced. It seems our trading styles are similar. I have used the Q's for years..but recently have become interested in the mid-cap S&P400. That seems to trend a bit better than the Q's..but that may be changing as that index gets more popular.
I use MVV and MZZ as the instruments. Both are 2X the S&P400. Sometimes I use the UWM and TWM funds which are 2X the RUT.
I don't use a lot of indicators..since most are trend following..and only delay the decision to change direction....one can miss 2 or 3 bricks of trend by doing that.
My favorite indicator of a trend change is a reversal of the bricks themselves. That can mean whipsaws...but it gets one into a new trend quickly. I am open to ideas about minimizing whipsaws..and made a couple suggestions in posts to charger about using 1/2 sized positions on a trend change until there is a confirmation. The confirmation could be a second brick, or the next higher time period confirming the trend change...............for example. If one is trading the daily..then take 1/2 position when the daily boxes reverse..then add the other 1/2 when the weekly changes to the same trend.
I will link a chart so you can see the simplicity of the indicators.......the best indicator is price, imo..and the filling of a price box usually means more than indicators in my use.
Regards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UWM&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p03887929457&a=138586803&listNum=1
charger..good points and good ideas. There is a lot to delve into for sure..
I am looking for a good way to minimize whipsaws..The ADX, Aroon, and Force indicators are possibilities..I plan to look at some volume change indicators as well, that may signal a trend is about to reverse. Regards.
charger..it's tempting to jump the gun, isn't it. I think all of us fight that.
Hard as it is, successful traders develop discipline. Old P&F hacks like myself, have learned that the box is either filled or it is not. Speaking digitally, the signal is a "1" or a "0"...or the switch is open or the switch is closed. All this is meant to say, that I would find a box size that you are comfortable with, and discipline yourself to only trade when that box is filled in either direction.
I have no experience with the 60 min charts..it looks like they could work if you stay attentive during the trading day.
The biggest drawback to trading the Renko trends, is whipsaws. If you can choose the box size to minimize whipsaws..then, I like using a filled reversal box as the signal to reverse positions. A trix(5,2) can be useful if slowing down whipsaws..but I would be cautious of indicators that are too lagging..such that part of the trend is missed.
I think there are various ways to reduce the risk on a reversal box being the real thing, or a whipsaw. One idea could be to close out to cash the position in which a reversal box has occurred..then open a 1/2 position in the direction of the new filled box..and add the other 1/2 position when the 2nd box is filled. This is not perfect either, but may reduce risks at certain times.
If you decide to trade on the 60 min chart..keep us informed. You might want to consider using the next longer (daily) interval as a confirmation.
I am toying with using a half position on the daily reversal, and adding the other half when the weekly confirms the reversal. I haven't any real experience with that yet, but it might work for me. Regards.
well..dang! renkoron and paulkar! I'm glad you're here. I have noticed that most are day traders here..and that's great..it's just not my thing, since I don't want to hang out on a computer all day.
I will read ron's posts he cited later this evening. I find the renko charts so much more flexible than plotting the P&F boxes by hand (me too, Paul)..that I think there are some interesting things to try.
I have concentrated mostly on daily charts..but find the weekly charts might be good used as a confirmation. My backtesting has found a reduction in whipsaws, and little if any loss in return with the weeklys. A lot more looking needs to be done to confirm that.
Anyway..best regards to the two of you..and anyone else interested. As I posted once on another board that are mostly guys using 1 min and 5 min time frames (excuse me, but I have to smile to myself).....the Renko charts, if followed, do two important things in successful trading.
1. The losses are limited.
2. The profitable trends are allowed to run.
Regards
I love Renko charts..and wish so much that they had been available on StockCharts long ago. I used a variation of P&F box reversals to trade indexes for a number of years..but, how much simpler Renko charts make that work.
Most of you seem to be focused on stocks. Do any of you trade the indexes?
I never trade an individual stock because of the inherent risk, but spread that risk through use of the basket of stocks in an etf. Presently, I am trading the mid-cap S&P400 using MVV and MZZ, which are 2X inverse instruments.
The system is a profitable one..and has been proved over about 10 years..using the NDX related funds, primarily. The mid-cap index seems to be somewhat better behaved, and I think will also show a comparable or higher return.
good trading to all.
be..I don't know if you are being straight forward, or sarcastic.
I cannot reconcile your post of ridicule when it looked like my previous post was probably going to be dead wrong.
Coupled with your post a couple days ago asking if you could "use my comments in a signature line" (?).....at the time I took them as honest conversation.....in retrospect, I wonder if you intended sarcasm there, too?
At any rate..my life is far too happy to be annoyed at anonymous posters on a board. I wish you well with your trading.
Jake..this will probably be my last post on this board. So, especially for you, my friend. I have noticed the same thing..also that the mid index itself is still on an uptrend.
I think the prudent thing to do is sell half of your position to cash, and leave half long if a red box is there at the close. It could well be a one-day wonder, and the trend will continue upward tomorrow.
Bottom line, I will either go entirely to cash, or 1/2 to cash and 1/2 long, if a red box remains filled at the close.
I will not move to MZZ based on what you described. good trading.
golly, two posts of ridicule. I didn't know we ridiculed others trading efforts here..political views, yeah. Such a deal.
I shared, actually I think at be's request mainly..a method of trend trading. Use it or ignore it..whatever. I have made good money using it, and will continue to do so..
Time for me to move along..sayonara..adios..goodbye.
be..what does this mean? Is it ridicule? Wow..
We'll see what the eod brings..still 75 minutes away.
Perhaps it will be a reversal..well, heck..I have made money on this upturn, even with a reversal down..and I will reverse directions with the Renko boxes, and may make some money on the downside.
What is the problem you have??
If you have made some good money with the action of today..I am happy for you.
learning..Jake..anyone following Renko trends. You have noticed today, with the large intraday volatility, a red candle appear at the end of four white candles (if you are using box size of 1.5 on MVV)......that red candle has now disappeared, as the price has risen back somewhat, and the price is no longer below the value needed to fill the red box.
The message I have gleaned is..intraday moves can be watched, but ignored for position changes..it is the price level that buyers and sellers are willing to hold overnight that is important. I look at the situation late in the trading day, if I want to take a direction change..or after hours, when there is time to evaluate more fully the eod breadth indicators..and then take a new position for the opening.
What one will find, is that often the intraday moves that are large resolve closer to the opening price..and taking those intraday gyrations can be a whip. regards.
Gleno...when QLD was above $73.50, a white box appeared..indicating that box was filled. When the price dropped back below $73.50, the white box disappeared, indicating that box was no longer filled.
If the white box is filled at the close of day, it will remain (not disappear) if the price falls below that level the next day.
Gleno not so, my friend..if you use the box reversal itself as an indicator of a trend change. Yes, if you add lagging indicators such as SAR. learn's suggestion of taking a partial position at the first reversal box is a good one. Then add all-in when the second box fills.
learning..I would only add, that you can determine the price to the exact penny that will fill a reversal, or the next box.
Since we are concerned mainly with a reversal, let's look at your chart.
1. Your box size is 1.75.
2. The fill price of the last red box was at $70.00 (That price is shown in the upper left corner of the chart, by the box size..you can also judge it from the box on the chart).
A reversal takes two boxes...therefore the price must retrace the last two box sizes upward.
Start at $70.00. Add two box sizes, which is (2)(1.75)=3.5
Add 3.5 to $70.00 and the white box that will show a reversal will happen at exactly $73.50.
natural..good idea on the targets..I would like to be able to fire rubber bullets at a panicked and scattering crowd of environmentalists.
Fat Al G. would be too easy a target..give me the smarmy, young elitists (preferably Obama supporters), and let me pepper their hides..global warming right on their a$$.
Foot..what a great link. almost feels like you're flying. thanks.
For the Bad News Bears..from Newsweek:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/148402
sammy..yeah, it's got to move down, then up and down, then maybe more up than down for awhile...that is the sign of a healthy trend move. I don't like it when moves happen too quickly. The best trends are the ones where there is plenty of opportunity for both buyers and sellers to re-position themselves day to day where they feel comfortable. We're far less likely to be whipped..and the trend lasts longer.
"Are you saying that my skillful countertrading is just luck and I will not be able to repeat it??Geezzzz"
Well, that was poor on my part, wasn't it. If anyone can do it, I'm confident you're the one, Gleno. It's probably just me that is hit and miss when I try to guess where a market is going to turn down or turn up.
Gleno..I agree that oil coming down is a huge force..also some of the banks that were predicted to be a disaster, are proving to be something less than that. Those are two things that have changed the direction of the market.
The point is..when the trend changes from an extreme..it often gains momentum. There is no one on this green earth that can forecast correctly when the trend will run out of steam and turn down again.............sure, it will happen..but until then the easy money is on the long side and if you get a successful short scalp, you will probably lose the next one.
Just click on the link for a 10 second look, and you will see what is happening in the mid-caps.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p88941874661&a=145274664&listNum=1
Gleno..Amazon beating by a penny going to move markets higher? No..markets will tend to make a general move higher now because there is momentum behind the trend. You guys keep trying to scalp by going against the trend...what am I going to do with youze guz?? Regards.
Gleno..Afganistan has some pretty poppy fields. You could teach golf to the muhajadin.
You might as well abandon Oregon to the kooky left anyway..your vote is never going to count for anything.
be..of course..lol..be my guest. Heck yeah, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the annual profits aren't either. Take what the market gives you, is my mantra. regards.
Gleno..re: your quote of another predicting a "suckers rally"..
I think that is a far-overused phrase, probably by ones who are positioned in the other direction.
I think about it like this: If I can capture 2-3 or more bricks of profit in a short term trend..then take the reversal when it comes and capture a few more bricks of profit in that direction.. who is the sucker???
Your guru is a longer-term investor, I believe..so it makes some sense for those customers who hold long term to wait for lower prices. But, for those who are a little more agile, it seems like a profit is a profit is a profit..regards.
re: Obama's "57 states"......isn't it ironic..or is the better word ominous..that there are exactly 57 Islamic states? What is on his mind?..the 50 states of the USA, or the Islamic states. Is it a gaffe, or does it say something about where his mind is?? Why, if it was a slip of tongue, did he say 57 states..not 56, or 60, or some other number? If it were not the exact number of Islamic states, it could be dismissed as a slip.....given that his father was Muslim..his mother atheist..he lived for some years in a Muslim country..is it ominous?
As the Irish guy said..what are you lads doing over there?
Gleno..thanks for that update on the institutions actions. Do you think the flattening can be used as an early signal of an upturn?
learning..you're welcome..glad you found the concept adaptable to your needs. Good luck with it. How's the new job going?
lol sammy...you know what? I don't think you should vote for Mac. You might consider that green-hip hop coalition though. lol.
thanks Jake.......the technique lacks pizazz, and excitement..it just quietly makes money. Regards.
farooq...and doubly wise not to read mine. Did you see that another Palestinian used a construction machine to attempt to murder as many Israeli's as possible? I know you deplore that, as do I.
My question is more of a humanitarian one, not necessarily political.
What should the Israeli's do with regard to this second rampage within a month? If you were responsible for protecting your people, what would you do?
I'm afraid that the response may be a reduction or control on Palestinian workers in Israel..which would be a severe hardship on the honest, hardworking, non-radical Palestinians.
What are your thoughts? Regards.
Walker has said for a few weeks, that the financials were going to prove not to be the catastrophe that the gloomies were protraying...and when that became apparent, there would be a multi-week rally. It's the best reason I know of..
rab..where...I don't see any delete button..cancel doesn't work.