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q2 preliminary is out.....
revenue $1.56 million
net income $0.41 million
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NMXS/news/Net-Medical-Reports-Strong-Y-O-Y-Q2-First-Half-Revenue-and-Net-Income?id=366425
asset liquidation.....
in lieu of share dilution to raise cash,lesser of 2 evils to buy time??
or
will burn rate be reduced down to $1 million per q?? my only buying trigger.
not sure.....
here where i check on weekly basis:
https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/TOH
plus here is the most reliable/timely site:
https://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm
good luck.
word of caution.......
a good example is today's price action: less 15k shares can drove price down 10%,can you imagine what 50k shares market can do to it?
expect price volatility/gyration of up to 50% as we go forward.again,my price target is 60c posted many moon ago.will price change before next er,my guess
60c+ 33%(chance)
60c 33%
60c- 33%
or
a safer way to go:
wait until er(8/15/22) is out and make you decision than.
watching and no touching......
pending upcoming er report.like the company but the burn rate without revenue is horrific.
from the bioMérieux S.A. (BMXMF) CEO Alexandre Mérieux on Q4 2021 Results...
my favorite quote:
"we remain active to look at technologies or companies, which are - which can bring which can complement our portfolio [indiscernible], is also is a new or emerging technologies, which have the potential to improve patient care on the decision time to results."
particularly,
"to improve patient care on the decision time to results."
a wild shot:
"telemed" platform??????plus clia and rural hospital network of nm(30+?) and az(??),with a combined population of up to 10 million.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492355-biomerieux-s-bmxmf-ceo-alexandre-merieux-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript
smart mirror,smart mirror on the wall,who is the fairest of them all..........
"smart cutting board with display".
lever up to the tilt.....
"Upon the successful approval of the USDA Guarantee, IVFH through its relationship with MapleMark Bank and under the terms of the Revolver and the Term Loans, will have access to more than $4 million of additional commercial borrowing capacity."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/IVFH/news/Innovative-Food-Holdings-Inc-AnnouncesRefinancing-and-New-Credit-Facilities?id=362012
sam is going for the broke,what is the risk of active investors throw in the towel??too high(price drop) for the long is my believe.
my guess:
50% chance below 10c before the end of year.ouucchhhh.
ps-sam will prove "a selfish management and go for broke" is the worst nightmare and likely total destruction for the longs.
are we there yet?
down below 10c.
this is how/when covid-19 diagnostic push got started by the
FDA back in 2020....
with the COVID-19 At-Anywhere Diagnostics Design-a-thon!
https://waters.crowdicity.com/hubbub/communitypage/22469
winners(top 12) are:
https://www.hhs.gov/blog/2021/04/01/covid-19-topx-tech-sprint-final-demos-showcasing-digital-diagnostic-tools.html
with
BRONZE(3rd place):
Net Medical Xpress Solutions, Inc: Net Medical's Telemed for COVID-19 Wireless Data
Treats COVID-19 test data capture as a Telemedicine consult problem: supports COVID-19 data collection and harmonization through questionnaires, order, and diagnostic forms. HL7 2.5.1 interface for export has been implemented and adopts standards like HTML5 and Web Bluetooth API. (Score: 30/35)
green lighting and endorsement of the 12 by the FDA??????the million dollar question and i think so.wooooowwwww.....
one of the drivers of the nmxs covid-19 business.....
"FDA urges COVID-19 test makers with EUAs to seek full authorizations"
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/fda-urges-covid-19-test-makers-euas-seek-full-authorization/620940/
my favorite:
"the FDA expects test developers to continue to routinely monitor and evaluate the performance impact of SARS-CoV-2 viral mutations on their diagnostics for as long as they are being offered. "
oooops....
blank page.
if you were the cfo.....
can ivfh break even within the next 12-24 months?and how would you do it??
plus if a recession hit,are the bets off?
lever up........
a middle finger to you all?
"The Company and its subsidiary, Innovative Food Properties, LLC (“IFP”), as borrowers, entered into two similar Loan Agreements, dated as of the Closing Date (the “Term Loan Agreements”), with the Lender for an aggregate of $10,455,680, before fees, first-lien secured term loans (the “Term Loans”). ....proceeds used to repay the Company’s existing term loans with Fifth Third Bank."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=15891825&guid=pEpwkW-VfXmSJth
balance sheet as of 3/31/22:
short term and current long term debt $2.6(million)
long term debt $5.8
scraping bottom of the barrel and all for an added quarter of survivability?is sam running out of his 9 lives??
3c is coming....
will i buy(100k) it this round at 3c?
75% no
25% maybe
make it simple.....
judge anyone by his/her past record/posting,to understand their true intentions.
or
anyone who listened to mikey(to go long),is he better off,dollarwise?????????
sam was pissing off denver smith&company......
"I have made numerous requests to you to meet with the board of directors of IVFH over the past two years, and these requests have seemingly fallen on deaf ears. You have responded with excuse after excuse."
stock price ranged between 32c-67c within the 12 months after ds realized something was wrong BIG TIME.why didn't he pull the trigger and get out,take loss,and move on?because he was unprofessionally hopeful and lost his objectivity with this value trap,did nothing and wasted valuable time for an inevitable train crash,subsequently he and ivfh are in a unintenable position now and more so going forward.it is too late now he has to eat it.
ds violated the golden rule:
selfish management is toxic and the most observable sign that leads to costly failure.
the objective question becomes, is ivfh business(ex-sam) savable and risk/reward worth the 5-7 million(good money) needed?????
or
would you take over a sick dog full of fleas?$?$?$?$$$$$$$($ suppose to be in red)
good moneys says......
asset price(mc) $9 million
annual loss of $6 million currently
case 1:
going forward
one year to break even,net loss of $6 million,cash -$3 millon(prior infusion of capital a must)
33% likely
case 2:
2 years to break even,net loss of $12 million,cash -$9 million
33% likely
case 3:
black swan event,net loss of $15+ million,cash -$12+ million
33% likely
so,the question becomes "is it worth it to add good money($7-9 million-minus cost of sam's poison pill) with 33% chance of eps=0 at the end of 12 months?"
it's going to be a tough slug(to stop the cash drain) for the active investors even if it won the proxy fight: war chest full of cash a must;high cost of takeover;and difficult challenges under a deep recessionary regime.
another possibility:
at 10% chance in the next 12 -24 months,and just maybe,in the mess of things,plus a black swan event,i get the chance to buy the stock early and below 5c.
when it rains,it pours.....
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/not-afraid-strike-teamsters-warn-us-foods-east-coast-walkout-could-impact-restaurants
a black swan event at work??
are we there yet?
down below 10c soon????i say give it few more days.ouchhhhh.
million dollar questions.................
how many million dollars you want for you(sam) to leave this mexican standoff(if papas & bandara are not inline with denver smith)?
then
the next million dollar question,where is the money be coming from,more specifically,from who's pocket??
another possibility:
ds is pissed off and dumping his ivfh stock at market.
why took so long to fire the first shot..............
it should of been done 2 years ago. if a piss of moron like me saw it,where the hell was everyone else: rear view bias,plus cheap hopes.
million dollar questions:
can this induce management change within the next 12 months?
50% chance
if yes,can the new management become effective day 1?
50% chance
last one,will a deep recession sets in soon?
50% chance
or
if there is a change,the success rate is less than 10% in the following 24 months.
ps-i am give it few more years to get their act together,my signal is when its eps=0,before i pull my trigger.
unless,sam got fired and pissed off,and dumping all his stock at market,down to 3-5c.ouchh.....
population comparison of nm vs az.....
size(2021):
nm 2.1 million
az 7.2 million
or
az is 3.5 time of az.
education brief: Marketing Authorization Using the De Novo Review Pathway....
pertaining to FDA 510(k) and BioFire Respiratory Panel 2.1 (RP2.1).
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-permits-marketing-first-sars-cov-2-diagnostic-test-using-traditional-premarket-review-process
my favoriet:
"it is the first SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test that will be permitted to be marketed beyond the public health emergency."
"The grant of the De Novo request for this test is based on additional data showing validation beyond what is needed for emergency use authorization. The FDA reviewed data from a clinical study of more than 500 test samples and a variety of analytical studies, which demonstrated a reasonable assurance that the BioFire RP2.1 was safe and effective at identification and differentiation of various respiratory viral and bacterial pathogens. "
Net Medical President Rafael Rubio said.........
"It's the first time we have used our proprietary Telemed platform to offer physician services directly to consumers. Previously, our Telemed program was limited to our extensive hospital network for neurology, cardiology, and other highly specialized medical services. This comes at a time when we are seeing an upturn in COVID-19 cases in our test results"
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/NMXS/news/Net-Medical-Expands-Testing-Facilities-as-Reported-Covid-19-Cases-Show-Increase?id=359547
a bit different view.....
for people think they knew,at least in my case,and my odds of being right?more than 66%,i hope.
syndromic approach.......
How Does Syndromic Infectious Disease Testing Work?
https://www.biofiredx.com/syndromic-testing/
down to 12.5c....
driven down by 13.5k shares selling(middle finger to sam??). it is becoming clear the rats are jumping the ship,started with a small amount of shares,will it cascade into an avalanche??again,only time would tell.
i could be wrong again with investors turn active......
it is likely and soon.
headwind in the market:
macro environment have changed,blood on the street: stagflation now,easy money(capital) days are over.
e.g. pe compression on money losing stocks becomes a norm.
e.g. amazon dropped 43% from its yearly hi
e.g. target dropped 30% from its yearly hi
e.g. walmart dropped 25% from its yearly hi
can papas withstand price drop down below 20c with no action?? we shall know soon enough.
possibilities.......
before you wager your hard earned money.good luck.
from quarterly:
"$3.2 million medical billing allowance"
"backstop contract with the State of New Mexico that runs through 2024 to reimburse unpaid insurance claims for community Covid-19 testing."
or
recoverable eps = 1.5c per q(using 5 quarters,all 2021 and 1q 2022)
the 1q,2022 adjusted eps can be as high as
adjusted eps of 3.5c =2c(eps)+1.5c(recoverable eps),that is 14c annualized.
so the million dollar question becomes: how likely is the 14c and stock price?
at 0% chance,the stock is worth 40c=8c(generic eps,forward looking)x5*(pe)
at 50% chance,the stock is worth 55c=11c(8c+3c reimbursement)x5
at 100% chance,the stock is worth 70c= 14c x 5
*pe of 5 is used for a high growth and uncovered penny stock.
or
price at 40c and below:
market assumes 0% of reimbursement
0% chance of covid-testing duplication in other states
watch out:
stock price $1.40 = 14c(100% recovery)*2(1st duplication)*5(with no pe expansion)
again,this could be "a pie in the sky" and i may be dreaming!
ps-i am long on the stock.
i hope you get lucky again......
with this "rear view mirror" bias. just let you know,i believe capc have to earn it the 2nd time around,which is much more difficult than the "pie in the sky" repeated excuses/lies/?????
to be exact.....
paid 3 cents per share.
2-3 years into the business with sam....
papas had stayed passive was a major surprise and disappointment for me to see. will he take off the kid glove and start swinging? i still believe so,since he is cornered(slow death) and have nothing more to lose(stock price is becoming worthless with everyday gone by).
warren buffett likes any company when.....
the price is right. i will finally agree with you and buy the capc stock,the only problem,i will buy it below 5c(like the last time,and it was way below 5c). again,i am in the market to make money and i am a cheerleader for no one(no time for pumping,too busy counting profit that is).
bottomline.......
not good for the bagholders.
after years of waiting,this is where we are today
from 10Q(1Q 22):
smart mirror products(revenue)- $16,080 and 6% of the total revenue
inventory $1.03 million(15+ years of supply,most likely to be write-off)
reflection:
dream of smart mirror taking you to the sky,is just a dream.as the bubble popped,this company is about to pay the piper for its blunder,deserved or undeserved,and the sound of bk is about to become a reality!ouchhhhhhhhhh.
without gain on the interest swap of $294k.....
the net loss would have been around -$1.5 million.
"houston,we have a problem(cash)!!!"
snap shot:
cash $3.1 million
a/r $3.4
inventory $3.2
so far,the way out was thru the share dilution:
3/2021 36 million shares
3/2022 46 million(28% increase y/y)
million dollar question?
the train wreck is within sight(3q 2022),who has the ball and common sense to turn active and fire Sam before it is too late?
last purchase price i paid was below 5c....
will it happened again?
33% chance within few months,at the burn rate of -$600k,it is likely around 3-4q 2022.
will i buy it again cheap?
66% chance no.
33% yes.
Amazon stock price dropped around 33% y/y........
ivfh is up around 10% in the same period.
with amzn backdrop, my expectations in the next 12 months:
33% price above current price(up to 40c)
33% price down 33%(down to 20c)
33% price down to 10c
again, i expect 10q/10k losses until 2025.oucchhhh.
quarterly report is out........
cash $682K
a/r $1.6 million
plus
"medical billing allowance of $3.16 million"
and nothing more important than(which was missing/unqualified last q)
"The Company has a backstop contract with the State of New Mexico that runs through 2024 to reimburse unpaid insurance claims for community Covid-19 testing."
if cash position goes up to $750k....
we have confirmation of a winner.