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10K is out..Now time to read it
Tipping point, when it happens
It seems that the current production and prices generate enough to pretty much pay all the bills and perhaps a bit more - but not enough to provide the funds to drill a lot more wells, certainly not quickly. "paying the bills" without needing additional funds has been a major goal for a long time.
Management is trying hard to get arrange funds to drill, but to do so without major dilution. That would be a loan, of course.
Production, revenue and profits are awaiting more holes, which are waiting on those funds.
I can't see the stock moving up much until a couple things happen, and then in steps:
1) A few more holes are drilled and reported successful, even if we don't have large volumes
2) Revenue climbs due to the additional production. Existing holes pay the basic bills, new holes are used to pay off the loan and fund new holes.
As a whole I've been very satisfied with Jim & company working very hard to avoid dilution or trading leases and such, and willing to go a bit slower. I, too, have quite a few shares. However, I too am concerned about just how slow it is. Constantly has seemed "almost there" but never quite over the hump. But it could still reach that tipping point in just a couple of quarters if funding and holes line up. Then it can build rather quickly.
so quiet - is 1 week no posts a record?
Hard to remember the last time we went a whole week without someone saying something, so I couldn't resist.
Of course, the continuing very conservative PR policy contributes to it. Someday we'll find out something new about restarted drilling, or new production numbers, or financing, or Dyer Creek production facilities. Hopefully before the next quarterly.
3month & 6 month numbers...
Hmm... Did I just find an odd error in the 10Ks?
IF
2Q 3 month = $307,006
and
3Q 3 month = $259,064
Then 3Q 6months revenue should be only $566,070
Not $759,121
So maybe the 3Q 3month number is low?
If the 3Q 6-month $759,121 number is accurate, and the 2Q 3month sales really were $307,006, then the 3Q sales should be about $452,000. Right? That would be a nice jump of about 50% in 3 months. But I'm not sure that matches production figures later in the 3Q10K
Or did I miss some special adjustments that came in due to various property sales or something?
Help?
3 & 6 month moving sales results
Birdman,
The 2Q10K, pg 4, shows numbers for ending Aug31
Revenue from Oil&Gas 3months-$307,006 6months=$500,057
The 3Q10K, pg 4, shows nnmbers for ending Nov 30
Revenue from Oil&Gas 3months-$259,064 6months=$759,121
Granted, both are well above 2009 numbers, and the 6 month moving results are much better for end of Nov. I was just really surprised that the 3 month result for 2Q was higher than that 3 months in 4Q.
I'm not worried, just surprised. I do see most everything trending positive. This is an oddity. And, of course, I am concerned about debt and speed&cost of new holes. The longer it takes to get new holes in and production and $$ in up the longer the G&A and other expenses chew into cash and require a bit of cash-flow dancing and additional debt of some kind.
3Q report - questions & concerns
the 10Q ending Nov 30 has a few things in it that are encouraging, and a couple I find disconcerting. On the good side there are all the items associated with consolidation of the working interest, etc. Some liabilities for debts are effectively short-term for the property rights. New wells started production in late Oct, so they have only a month's impact.
But.... on the flip side...
Total Oil & Gas sales $$ actually DROPPED from the 2Q to 3Q.
(307K 2Q and 259K in 3Q). Some 2Q sales are from properties divested, but sales on the east slopes in general didn't climb as much as I had hoped. Given prices for oil were climbing, and a few new wells came on line, that is surprising to me. Checking/comparing production numbers for 2Q (Aug 31) and 3Q (Nov30) shows:
Sunday well went from 1962 to 1751 bbls
Bear rose from 763 to 1364
Black rose just a bit 251 to 292
Dyer Creek came online with 101
Total Calif bbls = 3508 in 3Q, 2976 in 2Q.
So total Calif production is up just under 20%. Thats good. I'd just hoped for a bit more, I guess. It will have to speed up faster than that to hit cash-flow positive.
4Q numbers should show the new wells in full production. Estimates? Perhaps in the range of 4200-4300bbls? That's another 20% rise in bbls.
If the debt payments are finished, and some of the property related G&A, legal, etc are finished, that would represent very good progress, though much more obviously needed.
What's up? I'd say small volume YE sales & profit taking
Stock bumped up on the last news, which was solid, and I think there is a bit of profit taking from a few - very few - folks going on. If you bought at 7 and sell at 11 it is nice return, perhaps as part of year end portfolio adjustment. I don't see a reason to sell, but others might just for gains. But the volumes are very low, not near what we were seeing a few weeks ago. Consider that 35000 shares for the day, at .10, is only $3500 in total turnover. That's like someone just cleaning up remnants here and there for tax reporting and such.
What will the future hold
Well, there is volume, and pps increase, and news that isn't at all clear. Interesting times. We'll see where this goes when more is actually made known and deals are done. And how it actually affects any shareholders.
13 range looks to be holding solid
which to me is good news. I'd like it higher, and am confident it will trend that way. But I see it a good sign that this wasn't a blip. Steady pace of drill, produce, and avoiding bad debt or dilution. Glad they got the new wells in quick, given the 10Q simply indicated intent by end of quarter.
What do you folks think odds are of operational break-even by end of this quarter, or next?
10Q thoughts
Production and sale definitely up. Not quite as much as I would like, but rising.
A) Wells producing and in development
Based on the property-by-property report, it sounds as though all the wells are in production as of earlier this year or are "planned" for drilling. It looks as though there are:
4 wells running in Sunday
4 wells running in Bear
1 well running in Black
That's 9 total.
I didn't see any comments about wells drilled but not yet producing. Lots of drilling, however, by Feb 2011 -
1 hole in Bear
unstated in Dyer Creek
1 exploratory each in in Ball Prospect and Bull Run.
If they produce, that could be 4-5 more wells, perhaps, by end of next 6 months - but nothing likely turning on in this quarter, and nothing that just did. I don't think I would expect any notable increase in production volumes in the upcoming quarter.
Am I missing anything shorter term here?
B) Working interest timing
The Sept 2010 date for the working interest deal won't change how much oil comes out of a hole, but will give DBRM more $ per barrel. That's good, but not a particularly large factor in the short term.
C) G&A expenses
I wonder how much of the G&A recently has been associated with the property sales and working interest deals. If all the land issues are now stable, will the G&A expenses drop? The Cash Flows chart certainly indicates a lot used in "investing" activities If G&A is heavy on deal expenses, just how much? That could make a substantial change in the step toward cash-flow positive. Sales are now enough to more than cover production, exploration and depreciation.
No-prize DBRM prediction contest? ...
This board has gotten downright sleepy. DBRM obviously working hard (well, we think so...) but they never do publish much of anything about anything, except for the quarterlies. So....
Might it be a bit fun to engage in a prediction contest covering the next quarterly report coming out in about a month?
Perhaps the folks who track and discuss DBRM here make your educated guesses on a few things such as:
1) # New wells actually started
2) # new wells finished drilling
3) # new wells in production
4) Total bbl/day production as of the end of reporting period
5) How much new capital was raised via loan, etc (could be 0, of course)
6) Cash assets at end of period (obviously dependent on (5) above
7) Oil price
8) avg production cost/bbl
9) share price 1 week after the report is released
Anything else that might be good fodder for a guess?
At least we'll have something to read for a couple of weeks.
Product good, company however...
Whatever might be the status of the vestasync product, it appears the MIVT itself is defunct. Website gone, no contacts, no executives, no SEC filings.
So, curiously, do you have other info on the company itself that is recent?
Hello M1...
Where do I live? I now live in the upper sorta northern midwest
Used to live in CA at one time.
No good chances to go and visit the properties on the west coast.
xiws
What with all these tiny little trades?
Looking at the average daily volume, and many of the individual trades going by, I continuously curious about just who is selling little 1000 to 5000 share blocks. I can make guesses, but I do wonder just how many folks either
a) have a little tiny holding that they've decided to get drop just to clean things up
b) have a larger block, and for some reason decide to drop a small bit of it to pay for dinner and a movie for the family on friday.
It's hard for me to believe that anyone thinks dropping 1000 shares at a lowball price is actually going to influence folks in this context - such as start a run of selling, so that they can buy up a big block at a lower price a little later. But maybe so...
Annual report released this evening
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164256/000117120010000539/0001171200-10-000539-index.htm
Lots to look at. Obvious first pass stuff:
Revenues up 98% over 2009. Finally generating cash.
$469K in California in FY2010
$ 2K in California in FY2009
Still not huge amounts, but consider that the first few quarters of FY2010 were low, since they didn't have many wells running and the perm production facilities were not in place. The 3Q quarterly report showed $285K for the 9 months.
If I put these together, it seems as through they generated about $185K in 4Q alone, just from California.
And that was still not in full speed production for the entire time. Production is ramping up.
Production facility for Sunday, et al was completed in 2009 - so the production costs started dropping toward the end of the year. Lower cost and ability to raise well production by some amount.
They did mention the new Dyer Creek and related work, as well as the rather late (March 2010) business work that resulted in more cash for operations. These are definitely positives going into FY2011.
So - some big questions:
1) With the wells they have in production now, which are in full volume and how much are they producing? By the end of 4Q2010 I suspect that they had most of the wells running at close to full speed. Maybe not. Black #1 went into production in Jan, so perhaps not at full speed, and certainly not there for the whole quarter. Anyone know that answer?
2) Bear #3 and #4 were completed in April, so these numbers are not in the mix yet. DBRM says they plan to drill 3 more in the Bear prospect this FY. All these would be additive, and at least 2 are known to produce.
3) They have a few new wells that they are working on, but what stage are they really at? I don't think that they have actually started drilling. They seem pretty positive that they wells will produce, and the track record is good, but how quickly? Will these be generating by Aug2010 (2Q FY2011)? Can they have production facilities in Dyer Creek up and running by then?
That's a first pass. Other first impressions?
Gilbertown Sale proceeds
This action sounds like it provides $463,000 in cash, as a conversion of tied up asset in the bond and the receivable from the previous partner. Getting unworking illiquid assets off books and into production certainly helps with the cash flow as they progress toward profitability.
Production facilities for new wells
The new Dyer Creek and Ball locations are too far from the new production buildings to use those - which is good news in terms of being new taps into other deposits, but unfortunate in terms of requiring new production facilities. The good news, as of a conversation with mgt, is that there is an existing production building in the area from previous operators that is older and unused. Refit of that building will cost just a fraction of building a new one. And it can service both Dyer Creek and Ball and anticipated expansion in that area. So the time and capital costs to get going there are a lot lower than they were with expensive new construction building and tanks at Bear and Sunday.
?Prissy? M1, your immature words speak volumes
Much more, ironically, than your lack of meaningful data.
You *said* you were going to "show and tell" so why would that be an odd thing for me to expect?
Maverick's serving kool-aid now...
OK guy, as much as you go on and on about not "drinking the kool-aid" I don't see that you've ever actually provided any meaningful comment about anything. You've not made any rationale case for your valuations. You've got your inside sources, live nearby, hear things no one else hears... You mention how you are going to visit the properties, but don't say anything or give pictures from them - and don't even seem to know where they are at, or that they are on private property. You just bad-mouth downsideup and now offer random conversations about music history trivia. But nothing about the business for which we are really here. My old english teacher called this kind of behavior writing "glittering generalities" - and would grade it "F"
Deliver, or desist. I don't want your kool-aid, either.
Here something soon? 10K next week...
If it is on schedule, we should see the 10K next week which will show a lot. What, I don't know. I HOPE it will be good on new production volumes and revenue coming in.
In any case, given the lack of any meaningful press, it certainly seems the only announcements are the required ones every three months.
Only 30 more days to the next 10Q...
Maybe we will hear something before that. Then again, maybe not.
Certainly one of the quietest companies I have ever tracked.
Thoughts on internal(?) loan, warrants and pps?
I've not see much comment here on the SEC filing about (see below) on the notes and warrants. My first impression is that my concern about cash burn vs revenue generation was correct. They had to get cash. They did, with a private placement. Bad short-term hit for my share price due to dilution. But perhaps also necessary and good for long-term given it was necessary. But the amount raised wasn't huge. Hopefully just a cushion and carry over as they get more production going which will allow them to be self-sufficient soon? Next couple of quarters will show if they have hit the balance point or not. I got the impression that the notes were picked up by at least some internal folks - which is a positive sign. Rather like insiders buying the stock. They made a loan, and get cheap warrants. But thier willingness to make the loan themselves is a positive thing.
So what are you folks thoughts?
Xiws
* * * *
On January 29, 2010, in connection with a private placement of 12% Subordinated Notes due 2015 (the “Notes”), in the form attached hereto as Exhibit 4.1, Daybreak Oil and Gas, Inc. (“Daybreak”), issued Warrants to purchase shares of Daybreak’s common stock (the “Warrants”), in the form attached hereto as Exhibit 4.2. Daybreak issued Warrants to 11 accredited investors to purchase 1,030,000 shares of Daybreak’s common stock at an exercise price of $0.14 per share of common stock. The Warrants give the holder the right to two shares of common stock for each $1.00 principal amount of Notes purchased, which shall be exercisable for five years from the date of issuance of the Warrants. Daybreak issued the Warrants pursuant to a private placement held under Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Item 8.01 Other Events.
On January 13, 2010, Daybreak commenced an offering to raise up to $605,000 in capital by offering securities. The securities consist of the Notes and the Warrants. The Notes mature on the fifth anniversary of the original date of issuance of the Notes. The terms of the Warrants are described in the above Item 3.02. The offering of the securities is being made pursuant to a private placement held under Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Subscription Agreement is attached hereto as Exhibit 10.1.
Very sorry, Lebaneseproud - replied to wrong msg
"Reply" vs "New Post" caused me to connect you by accident.
My apologies.
Xiws
Done with the bashy-bashy exchanges?
I've been reading, and occasionally posting, for quite a while.
I've been buying too, and got some the other day at .105. I'm happy with that.
Yeah, I know that some folks pump, for fun or money. I don't really think that I've seen too much of that here.
Downside: I usually like your in depth market thoughts. Though, as I've said in a few of my posts, DBRM's production and revenue progress will be the only thing that really drives this up.
Maverick: I appreciate your general "positive credulity" - though I would be interested why you think .25 is a 2010 limit, if there is any basis other than gut feeling. The Two Triangle report didn't really have a good rationale for giving the short term rise up to a $1. I'd love it, but can't see the reasoning.
But I AM a bit tired of you to going at each other lately. Peace be with you.
As for dumping, the big volume of a few days ago does seem like some big holder cleared out. Who? Who knows. Big? Well, that's relative too. 600K shares @ $.10 is still only $60,000 total. Big, but not irrationally high if someone has a overall portfolio of $1M+ and finally decided they were done with DBRM for whatever reason and thought something else was a better play. Or just want cash because they think everything is going to crash again. Anyway, that big volume dropped back to the very low side again. So the big seller, whoever it was and why, is gone.
When I think of dumping I still get back to some of the share and deal stats: There just are not that many shares out there for any major party to have been dumping over the last year or so. Too much churn. Whoever had them would have run out, unless they bought more just to sell them again. Secondly, the latest pipes are quite old now, and didn't have enough shares in them to give enough for any of the participants to have enough shares to be a single big dumper this year. Maybe the company has given out some large number of shares to a creditor - and the clearance to sell them pretty quick. But SEC filings don't seem to show that in any large way.
So, I'm still curious, a bit disappointed, and STILL waiting for some really solid production volumes and revenue and a change in the cash position that doesn't make me a bit worried about another dilution.
But it DOES appear to be a good company, strong prospects, growing slower than I would like.
That is why I bought some more the other day.
Loans vs share sales for funds for development
Ok, I wholeheartedly agree getting more drilled and more production is important, and is (positive hopeful thought here..) very worthwhile.
Here's a thought then - my preference, without any other specific data to go the other way, is that if DBRM needs more cash then get a loan. A bit hard in this market, but getting a loan is a very different level of overall expense and dilution than trying to run a share sale through private placement, etc. The loan, in this market, would have (relatively) low interest, and similarly low costs to arrange. And it doesn't directly impact share price. Payback runs over time and comes from production revenue. And getting a loan means that the source of funds is rather confident that the projections on production and cash flow are such that they will get paid back. That, to me, is another independent indicator of confidence in what they are doing.
A pipe, on the other hand, has a lot of legal, SEC and placement agent finance fees associated with it and requires a discount from the current share price to make it worthwhile to the participants.
If they have a really good story, with up-to-the-week production numbers, a loan funding may be available and be a good choice for paying for new drilling.
How's that?
Financials - good and bad, it seems
The 10Q summary includes the following:
We will now focus our efforts on drilling development wells, as well as drilling several exploration wells over the next twelve months, which coupled with the completion of our production and operating infrastructure and expectation for higher oil prices, will increase our net cash flow. This process has already begun with the drilling of three wells in December 2009 and early January 2010."
That passage, along with other general production numbers (higher volumes + lower costs) is really good news. New wells are producing. Very good news.
However, the summary also has the following statement
"We will need to obtain the funds for our future exploration and development activities through various methods, including issuing debt securities, equity securities, bank debt, or combinations of these instruments which can result in dilution to existing security holders and increased debt and leverage. We are pursuing financing alternatives; however no assurance can be given that we will be able to obtain any additional financing on favorable terms, if at all."
That, to me, is not good news. I want them to grow. I want DBRM to be able to grow using production revenue. I do NOT want to see dilution. Before any quick response about "but finance income that dilutes allows them to grow is OK" - I realize that can be true. But the dilution also hits my investment, first - with the possible future promise that it will make it up later.
Another placement, with folks getting lots shares at .06 or such, would NOT be good. It would end up needing another doubling just to get back to where we are. And each downward step makes it that much harder to make it back up later.
Somehow they have to turn the corner on actually making money. Are they there? Maybe, with the new wells and full production facility and higher oil prices. Maybe - IF they don't spend too much, too quick, on new wells and seismic surveys and everything else. They've already played the impairment card by getting some cash up front and writing off receivables and such. That does avoids a direct diultion of shares through a placement.
DBRM needs production - all else is fluff
I find all the conversation on this board to be sometimes interesting trivia about the overall oil market, but pretty meaningless in regard to DBRM. All the big debate about peak oil, Iran, US and China consumption and production, etc is pretty meaningless until, and unless, DBRM actually reports volumes and revenue.
It really doesn't matter how much oil the world needs, or who is producing it or not. If DBRM can't generate barrels faster than it is burning cash the stock isn't going anywhere.
Yes, I know that they are PR shy - for their own reasons or big partner control or whatever. But something more than one statement a quarter when they make their SEC filiings would be desirable, and a bit of an update on production and flow would qualify. I just can't see the harm in that if they had a bit of good news to send out every once in a while.
Their last meaningful statement was Oct 29 - and that wasn't really any *new* news. Production facilities "substantially completed" and some more wells to be drilled. The last notice prior to that was in July, which said "Further development wells are being planned for later this summer. We are continuing construction of permanent production facilities and should be
finished by the fourth quarter of this year.” So the Oct announce didn't really say anything useful that was actually expected in the July notice.
Ok, so maybe they can't say much about the recent wells, esp if they are not quite done, still getting things hooked up, etc.
But if they are turning up the volume on existing wells, make that a short update on new volumes.
No wonder the stock won't move. Why would anyone out there have a good reason to buy it? May not be a good reason to sell it, either, but it certainly doesn't surprise me that it is sitting still.
Sales, sellers, volumes and pps
This issue has made me wonder for quite some time, and I've shared that in some posts in the past.
The # shares moving as % of total shares outstanding is rather high, over the space of a year, unless a smaller number of shares are really churning.
But that would be odd without any notable pps changes - why buy at .10 and sell at .11? Or sell at .11 and buy at .10? While a .10 buy, and a .15 sell is a good profit, at those prices it does take a LOT of shares to really make much real difference. And the average daily volume is just under 70K. At .10 thats really only $7000 a day total. Peanuts. Lots of 5K blocks - which are only about $500 a piece. It is, quite literally, a penny stock.
Seems odd to me. You'd think that if there was some group that held a lot of shares, and had been slowly dumping them, they would have run out long before now with other folks seemingly willing to buy them at .10 to .11. The price has been rather stable for quite a while.
I wish I knew. You can't help but wonder what it is that makes them want to sell. I figure there are a few obvious candidates: a) day traders playing for the penny difference.
b) general impatience
c) need rather small amounts of cash for other stuff
d) real doubt about the long term performance
I've not seen anything about a major placement or offering for a couple of years - last one I remember hearing about the units were sold at about $2.50 a share. Current pps is a big paper loss since then, obviously, but the more important question is what is the future direction from here. For those folks, it would comes back to "why sell" unless really impatient, need cash, or truly doubtful.
Not Starnes... but did buy
But I guess I am responsible to for the late "last price" drop to .12. Someone was willing to sell me a bit at that price, and I was willing to buy. But I won't sell at .14. Worth lots more than that. So there.
Xiws
Slow going nowhere until updated production news
I do trust it will be pretty good news, maybe not fantastic news, but pretty good.
When it FINALLY comes out. Production facilities in place and operational, more production on the current wells, higher prices, lower cost of production. That all should be in the next quarterly. I do so wish that they would drop a few updates in between.
More drilling news, on the other hand... I suspect that may be farther off.
Question for anyone with production knowledge or experience - once the full production storage facilities are online and are no longer a bottleneck on well output, how quickly can production rates be tested at higher volumes to see what the well can produce? What are the risks of trying to turn up the volume too quickly?
Last I heard - back in March
Had a conversation with investor relations. I've seen absolutely nothing since. Haven't called, either. Out of curiosity I just tried and the IR folks phone number from the website now responds as "not in service." No SEC filings since last year, other than the notice of inability to timely file. At that time good progress was made on the trials, from a medical standpoint, but had burned through so much cash they needed funds and were in conversations with possible partners, sources, etc. Market might have weakened around them by some other study announcements that stents in general may be less desirable than they had been previously thought.
Welcome all you new folks
I'm one of those that has been sitting, watching and acquiring a bit, though quietly, for some time. I'm not quite as gung-ho as a few others, but I do like what I see in DBRM.
They have done well in property acquisitions, property sales, financial management, avoiding dilution, etc.
They do need to get cash-flow positive, and I'm pretty confident that the permanent production facilities (lower costs and higher output support) combined with higher per-barrel prices has got them there or pretty close. Every new well is a bit of a short-term cash sink but starts adding to the revenue stream much faster.
The recent company news was generally expected, if you've tracked the company for a while. They did what they said they were going to do. I like that. The independent research, well... on that I'll reserve judgment. I like the positive tone. I don't have any reason to disbelieve it. But I've seen lots of such reports over the years. We'll see.
DBRM is still a very small company, without much coverage, and still qualifies as a penny stock. Strong production, revenue, profits, etc will change that. But it won't likely change it that much in 90days.
But I do believe it is likely to be a slow and steady rise, with the usual plateaus and drops, going forward. There will be folks that bought at .10 that will sell at .15 simply to take a 50% profit. Seems like leaving money on the table to me. I suspect that there will be very willing folks to pick it up at .15 as well. And so forth at each level as it goes.
Anyway, welcome again.
DBRM .11 on the spot
That's what my account shows, as does the market quotes I see.
news - neutral, good or not so good?
Maybe I'm just not seeing what I want to see, but I'm not overly impressed with the results that I read. There is promise for the future, but will we get there before more fundraising is required?
Negatives:
1) Cash is very low
2) Revenues in latest quarter don't cover production costs let alone G&A
3) Therefore looks like some form of dilution may be coming up quick.
Possible positives:
1) Not all the wells were running all quarter, certainly not at full volume.
2) Price per barrel is rising
3) Full production facilities and electric should be done within a couple of weeks
4) Productions costs will drop with production facilities on line, and production volumes *may* be able to rise
5) Burn rate on building the production facilities will be done (for now at least) and is therefore not an ongoing expense
6) Mgt stated that "The Company is continuing its strategy to develop the East Slopes Project in California through existing cash flow. " That's good. But can they?
Some questions I wish I had answers to:
1) I would very much like to have seen a breakout of revenue (or barrel volume, either one) by month to see the trend. California Rev for June-July-Aug was $129K. That's an average of $43K/month. It is obviously ramping up, since the 6 month numbers (mar-aug) is $166K, only $27K more. Sunday #2 was completed in June, so was of limited production for the quarter. Sunday #3 just started producing in July, so it had at best two months of production, perhaps only 1.
2) Aug 31 data is now a month and a half old. Has volume continued to rise in Sept and beginning of Oct?
3) So - how much as monthly "revenue" (price-stable) risen from the avg of $43K/mo? $60K perhaps, still with limited production facilities? That's still only $180K/quarter - not near enough to fund all the operations. Price of oil is rising a bit.. that could add a bit more. Production online and production volume goes up, adds more revenue.
There's my questions for the moment.
Day traders or what?
Avg daily volume over 1 yr is about 100,000 shares.
There is only about 45million out there, many locked within the company, etc.
In any case, at 100K/day, that would be a million ever two weeks.
At that rate there seems to be a lot of churn for a stock that isn't really going anywhere. Folks can't simply be buying at 10c and holding, because if they were, there would not be anything left out there to buy.
It's hard to imagine anything other than short-term day-trader like activity - buy at 10, sell at 11, and bank the penny. I guess that does add up to $500 on a 50,000 unit day.
But that still doesn't explain it well to me, in this case, since somebody else is buying it at 11, and selling it the next week at 10 - otherwise the cycle can't keep going.
Ahhh the stock market. An amazing thing...
Production news needed
Stock creeping downward, in reasonable volumes, is a disappointment.
I'm anxious to hear about permanent production facilities being completed, with resulting ramping up of production volumes on existing wells, and new wells being sunk that can then generate flow and positive cash.
I suspect that we will be rather stagnant until then.
I too am long, with enough slowly accumulated that even a penny rise is a very pleasant thing.
I like what I see so far, but really want to hear of more wells sunk and producing so that the bpd and revenue gets high enough to generate interest outside of the small club watching so far.
Zero volume today so far
Well, I'm happy that our sellers are being very stubborn about their price. Unfortunately, it appears the buyers are just as stubborn.
We've certainly flown all over the place in volume in the last two weeks.
So here is a question for folks who have tracked other O & G companies over time: just how many producing wells, at how much cash flow or operational profit, do you think will be necessary to realistically generate public interest on a wider scale? The three new wells (Sunday 1 & 2, Bear 1) are great - but it is still a small operation. May even be profitable, but not enough to excite large numbers of folks.
Are there thresholds that might be reasonable to expect? Say, for example, for revenue and profit? Some number of barrels/day? What would bump DBRM into the next category?
Sorry... incomplete tidbits
1) Production facilities (esp electrical) for Sunday 1 & Bear 1 should be operational w/in 2 months.
2) Production costs will drop with new production & storage facilities.
3) Some well production is limited by storage, and new facilities will remove that limit.
4) New land is adjacent to existing property and follows the same fault line of Sunday 1 and Bear 1.
Tidbits from a conversation...