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This chart says the bottom is in and a new uptrend is in place. A major reversal pattern is the cup formation with a handle on the right. From that a conservative uptrend channel (in blue) is derived. Resistance (red) at .01 demarks the upper limit of a wedge formation with the ascending angle in blue. Consequently, there is a probability of a correction to support at .008 or to near .007 at the bottom of the trend channel/wedge formation.
A sustained breakout above .01 would make for an easy run to the top of the channel at .011 where a pull back would be predictable. If volume accelerates and the price breaks above .011 then an accelerated uptrend would occur and the beginnings of a parabola or flag staff could be in the making. It is highly unprobable that predictions of 000's will come to be. It is more likely that a challenge of .014 and beyond will occur. Volume is the key. Watching MACD, RSI and AD will aid in discerning whether resistances will be broken.
If marianothis is 39 I must reserve 40 for my best friend of 28 years who has shares upon my recommendation. I am #7 and am in so much trouble for not making her 7 and me 8.
Seven of us, at least. Marla is right, patience will pay off. It has taken a lot of patience and the pay off will be worth it. An upside break out is imminent.
Sure is looking like a cup and handle on the right side of that weekly chart.
Brent, you are in good company here. I have been fortunate enough to get to know KMAG shareholders and found them to be successful entrepreneurs as yourself and exceptional thinkers.
I was struck by your reference of KMAG's relevance to your business. Sir John Templeton offered the advice, invest in an area you know. If you sell ice cream, research dairy, sugar and other aspects of your field of expertise where you would recognize a sound investment.
I look forward to more from you and your perspective. I do feel that soon we all will have to "average up" as we are very near the lows and have much room to move upward.
I tried but got stalled. I am certain someone could find out. Then it is a matter of arithmetic to figure what current earnings would correspond to a current $1.35 share price.
Bravo Gatemate.
Again you hit on an important point, "to see what effects the first 10q has...". The company also has to generate positive press and has to attract long term holders like institutions to shrink the float. Then what pigs is suggesting could occur. Of course this is all conjecture until what JR related in the PR comes to be fact verified by official documents.
Thanks to you Apollo for the things you have done.
In 2007 KMAG hit $1.35 on an OS of 75 million. I don't know the earnings of 2007, but if the coming earnings reports show 10 times 2007's earnings as the OS is now ten times that of '07 then $1.35 is absolutely plausible. As earnings increase from that point, so does the price. I am just not certain of the time frame.
Sorry Apollo, I didn't answer your question. The very name "break away gap" indicates that such a gap doesn't get filled. In such an instance we watch resistance levels and use "gambling" money to trade the channels of consolidation as the price rises. One must have a day trading account to play that game right. Otherwise, we look at momentum indicators to determine if the stock is going to take an extended rest. No doubt in a growth stock there will be "trading gaps" that can be played. The best no brainer trade on a growth stock is to buy at the bottom of a gap down while the stock is in an up trend.
Apollo, you are a smart man and have presented the paradox that is approaching. If KMAG turns into (LMFAO) which would be an appropriate ticker, the charting companies would most likely generate a new chart starting from the suggested .10 so there would be no gap. And any usefulness I have would evaporate until about a month of data accumulates.
But theoretically, a gap on immense volume and fundamental changes in the underling company is feasible and is called a breakaway gap. A classic example is the island reversal where there is a downward gap, some consolidation and then an upward gap. This results from panic or manipulation causing the price to gap down then overwhelming news causing a gap up. I am not suggesting that this will happen.
Jaime, I said a breakout could happen at any moment between now and year end or new year, and that it could be dramatic. Without volume though, more drifting can be expected and that chart allows for some downside which sanluischris pointed out makes for good buying opportunities.
A distinct possibility is that volume creeps up without news but in expectation of it. In that case we could break out and be off and running. These are exciting times. Of course I love you and if I didn't Sharon still would.
On the short term chart hitting .01 is a possibility intra day but will not likely be part of any sustained rally without news and subsequent high volume. The price is near a long term downtrend line that has reversed price six times since 1010. Some conviction will be needed to make a reversal of that downtrend. More statistically likely are dips toward support lines at .005 and lower.
The triangle pattern reaches it's apex at about year end or January, and at any time until then a breakout either way should be dramatic with capitulating sellers to the downside or enthusiastic buyers to the upside.
Jaime, you teaser. You know more big words than I do. Since you bring up Joseph Granville I will simplify with his words, "Technical analysis is a measure of human mass psychology, and humans are highly predictable."
As to that walk on the beach, the triangle apex is less than two months away. Any time between now and then.
It's uncanny.
But a chart is merely tracking buys and sells. The fundamentals generally instigate buys and sells. So there is a synergy. The charts are putting into visual form ebbs and flows of optimism or pessimism. Any prescience that charting may have is because of the ability to extrapolate trends, and suggest reversals based on statistical probabilities.
The only prediction this chart makes is that since the longer line on the triangle is the downward one, a breakout upward will be more intense than downward.
Whether we break out to the upside is up to the fundamentals. That Jaime is your department and I will bow to your better judgment in that area.
Jaime, That rising bottoms line is usually an indicator of a trend. Not an uptrend in this case because there is an equally compelling down trend line. Together these lines make a triangular indecision pattern. With increasing volume the breakout of such a pattern upward or downward resolves the pattern establishing the starting point for the next trend channel.
Charts. Suppose KMAG were to break out above the long term resistance line (blue) on better than rumored news. There are some near term resistance levels that must be overcome (red). How those levels are surpassed depends on momentum. That can be monitored by the RSI, MACD and AD indicators. Should momentum indicators remain strong while overcoming near term resistance then long term chart resistance must be considered.
Long term the .10-.15 area then .25-.30 are the first resistance levels to be overcome. If momentum remains strong these levels could be met with minor consolidation. If momentum indicators round off then a period of consolidation could be expected before the next leg up.
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It stings still llh222. Wosniak quit, the board of trustees ousted Steve Jobs and Windows was taking the market over. Apple was junk. You never know for certain. We should find out about KMAG soon and I'm not selling at 10 ....cents that is.
I believe the subject of resurrection is very on topic here
I bought Apple at 10 and thought I was a genius when it hit 20 and sold out. At $700 I felt like a dunce. Chambers says KMAG ma evolve into an investment. Then I have to change my outlook to long term.
In that case we look at revenue, PE ratio and industry comparisons and if our findings are encouraging we may wish to hold on tight.
The prudent investor would sell half the position at a 100% gain. But that isn't above the noise floor here. Ah, but a certain poster here corrected me once and said KMAG isn't an investment.
You are absolutely correct. Short term charts are great for locating buy and sell points for trading. Longer term charts can indicate trends. You can see on the chart's downward resistance line zones where buys would be high risk. Day traders monitor short term indicators, but someone entering or exiting a long term position would benefit by considering the big picture. That's why there are long term charts. As to your other question, Two months will resolve the indecision pattern.
The intermediate term chart corroborates the fundamental information provided by the latest press release, ie; Just wait. The indecision triangle (red) has nearly two months before the apex is reached. Statistically this pattern resolves in a dramatic move in one direction or the other.
A short term uptrend (blue) is developing indicating closing prices near .004 and .005 are possible in the near term, though these prices seem untradable inasmuch as the volume at the lows is negligible. A closing price "paint" toward the long term support line (red) at .0025 - .003 would do no technical damage although it could generate a scare that could cause downside volume to increase. Should that occur believers in the fundamental possibilities would have a serendipitous buying opportunity.
When the promised forthcoming news with facts verified by SEC filings appear, the declining resistance line would probably be broken to the upside on high volume and Chamber's request for a straight line will likely be accommodated. Meanwhile, Jaime's suggestion to buy at the ask has been working for me.
I agree completely. The old high of 1.35 is merely a horizon above which is blue sky. We have to see how the fundamentals of revenue and share structure workout. A goal of $1 short changes the technical analysis. There is little resistance between 60 cents and a 1.35. That's why I am waiting for 1.35 to see how quicky that level becomes the new support.
I'm waiting for $1.35, the old high.
Please Chambers, don't quit the moonshine business! I do hope to soon honor your request and start drawing upward lines on the chart.
Excellent thinking toymaker! During the time that the business plan has been evolving, there has been reportedly much work done on trying to get the stock uplisted. We heard that the first attempt with the "211" route got sandbagged. Now a new avenue is being developed.
It is for us a matter of perseverance and patience as the business model becomes reflected on the stock price.
Thanks for jaimeization translation. I about fell off my chair laughing.
Long term charts. At the beginning of October a convergence of a long term declining tops line (red) and a long time resistance/support level (blue) occurred at .01. The one cent level was broken to the upside, but on negligible volume and Joe Granville's axiom "volume precedes price" was corroborated. Little volume, little price support.
Now KMAG is oscillating in a trading range between .004 and .01 on a closing price basis. There has been more volume at the higher level of the range than at the bottom indicating more interest in owning than selling KMAG.
With such light volume small trading orders placed at lower or higher prices can produce large percentage moves. So spurious spikes of lower lows and higher highs are not out of the question. But a sustained upward trend channel is unlikely until the volume increases dramatically. Meanwhile a low volume downward drift is not surprising as buyers put in consecutively lower bids. What will break the resistance level on a sustained basis is high volume.
The second chart shows OBV, on balance volume, as being high on the long term. This indicates more higher closing prices than lower. Seemingly contradictory that OBV is high while in a downtrend, this happens when the upticks are small compared to the downticks, so in spite of there being more upticks the price goes down. The last chart shows OBV for the last 6 months as declining. This suggests that the consecutively lower asks are being met with lower bids.
All this will change when proof of the rumors becomes official. A press release at this time may produce a move upward. But for a sustained move on high volume KMAG should be trading on an exchange that will attract new investors and provide liquidity.
A "fluff" PR at this time could take KMAG to the top of the trading range. That may reassure the nervous, but for a sustained uptrend to begin, any cordial PR should be followed by a series of substantial PR's with evidence of KMAG's progress.
Long term charts. At the beginning of October a convergence of a long term declining tops line (red) and a long time resistance/support level (blue) occurred at .01. The one cent level was broken to the upside, but on negligible volume and Joe Granville's axiom "volume precedes price" was corroborated. Little volume, little price support.
Now KMAG is oscillating in a trading range between .004 and .01 on a closing price basis. There has been more volume at the higher level of the range than at the bottom indicating more interest in owning than selling KMAG.
With such light volume small trading orders placed at lower or higher prices can produce large percentage moves. So spurious spikes of lower lows and higher highs are not out of the question. But a sustained upward trend channel is unlikely until the volume increases dramatically. Meanwhile a low volume downward drift is not surprising as buyers put in consecutively lower bids. What will break the resistance level on a sustained basis is high volume.
The second chart shows OBV, on balance volume, as being high on the long term. This indicates more higher closing prices than lower. Seemingly contradictory that OBV is high while in a downtrend, this happens when the upticks are small compared to the downticks in spite of there being more upticks. The last chart shows OBV for the last 6 months as declining. This suggests that the consecutively lower asks are being met with lower bids.
All this will change when proof of the rumors becomes official. A press release at this time may produce a move upward. But for a sustained move on high volume KMAG should be trading on an exchange that will attract new investors and provide liquidity.
A "fluff" PR at this time could take KMAG to the top of the trading range. That may reassure the nervous, but for a sustained uptrend to begin, any cordial PR should be followed by a series of substantial PR's with evidence of KMAG's progress.
Good summation Apollo. I would add that emotions have little useful function in investing. It is said that the market moves from the effects of greed and fear. That's why we get bubbles and crashes. But wise investing decisions should be independent of emotion and should be based on cold math and detached research. That's how one gets in before the bubble and out before the crash.
In April the CEO publicly proclaimed that KMAG is on track and the problems are being resolved. Since then there have been many conversations and correspondences with Jeff Reid from respected members of this forum who have passed on reassurance that progress is being made. Other contributors have revealed KMAG's business presence.
Two days this week the trading volume has been 0. It is good to see that all the emotion being vented here is not affecting people's buy and sell decisions. When KMAG spent a half a day at .004, the money exchanged at that level was around $1500. Reports were that the buy orders at that level were for more than .004 and nonetheless were filled at .004. There is no sell off and no selling pressure. We just have a giant trading range between .01 and .004. Emotion aside, we are in the accumulation zone.
It's good to have you back Jaime! An 8K produced by the sister company makes it hard to argue that the CEO of KMAG is a "thief". The 8K suggests Tri's legitimacy with the SEC and, certainly the SEC officials not contesting the 8K are aware of the company's relationship with KMAG. ...or the SEC is grossly inept.
Burden of proof of KMAG's malfeasance is on the accuser. Yet, verification of the current state of KMAG's business operations is dependent on official publication...such as an 8k.
Thanks chambers. After a long summer, it looks like there may be some action to draw squiggles about. On the chart just posted, I put a green line at .60 because the .45 - .60 area was the launch pad for the run to $1.35. It was also the crash pad after the subsequent fall. So the .60 area seems to be a likely rest area on the way back up. After .60 there is little resistance up to $1.35 and an enjoyable run is a strong statistical possibility. After $1.35 it's clear air.
I posted this chart over a year ago. It goes back to 2007. I was soundly criticized for projecting 2007 prices to possibilities for the present on the grounds that back then the OS was 75m and now it is more like 750m. Therefore, an adjusted new high would not be $1.35 but more like $.135. That is a sound criticism.
But if earnings growth is exponential as stated in a PR, and the float is truly mostly absorbed by friendly hands, then the old high is within the realm of possibility.
Therefore, I re submit this chart suggesting a possible climb to $1.35 where a new base would form if KMAG becomes the powerhouse as rumored. The chart also suggests possible resistance along the way.
I appreciate that chambers! There hasn't been much to say as we groveled along the bottom. It would be fun if something is beginning, then I will have squiggles to contribute.
2 charts. Joseph Granville's often quoted precept of Classical Technical Analysis, "Volume precedes price" must be kept in mind as the lines indicate break outs on long, intermediate and short term charts. The long term chart indicates a break out of a declining tops line spanning from 2011, and a breakout of an indecision triangle dating from 2012.
In the intermediate term, in September the price broke out of a two month long channel between .004 and .005 and re tested, forming a new channel between .005 and .008. That channel was broken to the upside today.
An argument could be made that a cup formation is appearing indicating that a bottom is in place.
Both the long term resistance and the intermediate term channel were broken today which could could be significant.
However.
Remember Joe Granville. The last thrust to .014 was on tens of millions of shares in volume. For the very optimistic move today to be validated, an upward trend channel needs to emerge and volume must pick up. Otherwise this could be a bear trap and KMAG must wait for news and rumor to generate the volume necessary to sustain an uptrend of significance.
Personally, I have been complacent with the price wallowing and have buy orders in at various levels which have gotten me some .006's and .005's recently. My stratagy has been to regularly buy at the "last" price and maintain low quantitiy GTC orders at lower locations. Amazingly, during today's swings my "last" order at .008 got filled and so did part of my GTC at .006.
This has been a wonderful summer for a "man of means by no means" to accumulate a position, that if all rumor comes to be realized, will become a man of comfortable means.
Yes, we will put the farm on automatic and be there. First class. By the way, pig's charts and lowman's insightful chart analysis are indicating a fundamental change is on the way. I sent DJ a pile of charts illustrating the "long base" pattern. I will post it after a confirmation, when I am certain we are starting a new uptrend. Despite the unsubstantiated objections repeating that charts don't work in the greys, the charts have quite accurately predicted tradable trend channels and entry points in the last year. They have worked well for me. lowman's interpretations are well worth heeding.