Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks, Ray. You are absolutely right about fighting emotions. It is best to try and leave emotions out of the decision making. Best of luck to you too.
I forgot to mention 2 more reasons I exited:
7. I looked at the L2, and it showed some pretty good strength on Friday. That is why I believe we moved from 1.80 to the upper 1.80s before the end of the day.
8. The company said they have $5M in cash, if I recollect. Based on the -$4.3M in cash flow for the last quarter, this means they probably have enough cash to get through an entire quarter. On top of that, they are likely to generate more deals, I believe, in 3 months. (Probably a whole lot more deals.)
I still will not buy though here. It would go against everything I know, technically on charts. Now, if the technical situation changes and whoever is selling massive amounts of stock stops, I still reserve the right to buy, of course.
Yes, I am used to people considering my perspective questionable. No big deal.
Here is why I went short:
1. Heavy insider selling, if you look at the action for the year.
2. Major reversal pattern on the D1 chart (for me).
3. Incredible amounts of selling. No one can argue against the fact that someone is selling millions of shares.
4. Negative cashflow. They had -$4.3M in cash flow last quarter.
5. Debt is about 2-3 times their quarterly revenue.
6. There is an anomaly here, in terms of the sector. All the other stocks are down. This one is up. That either means it will revert downward, or it truly is a diamond in the rough.
So, these are the reasons I went short. When I go short, I have many, many reasons. I do not just short for 1 reason.
Now, to be fair, here is why I exited at a small loss:
1. Price did not break the 1.60 area, as I expected. I was expecting price to retest 1.40, and it still might. We will see what happens over the next month or two.
2. I am not willing to hold this insanely volatile stock through the holidays, while I am on vacation. Checking the charts for big news every day, is not my idea of vacation, and I would have to do that on this chart, obviously.
3. This company has a lot of good news that it is churning out. In my experience, the better short plays have ZERO news (or really poor news). There is definitely some quality here. You cannot deny that, IMO.
4. They seem to be striking up a bunch of deals.
5. They seem to have generated a bunch of interest recently, which may lead to more deals.
6. The 1.60 area held 3 times, and the company is putting out news every time the 1.60 area is hit. They obviously are intelligent, and I applaud that.
The chart says lower, in my opinion. The recent news/fundamentals makes my interpretation of the chart, iffier. Therefore, I cannot justify holding a short on this, any longer, especially going into the holidays.
We still need someone to answer these questions:
1. Who is selling all the stock?
2. Why are they selling all the stock?
For #2, the only thing I can come up with is that the tests on CoCo are not as good as everyone had hoped.
Now, before everyone starts throwing stones, realize that GROUP THINK is a bad thing. It is good for someone to come in here and challenge you to think about this situation. Sure, you can probably, from your perspective, shoot down all of my interpretations. However, just the fact that this might force someone to think about this situation a little more closely is good.
FWIW, GLTA
I hope it goes to $25. I would rather be wrong here and learn something and see everyone make a big profit than be right and realize that I should have held. I know that sounds weird, but I have a hunch here that I should have held because most of my trades I exit too early.
Decided to exit at a 0.36% account loss. (Yes, I post my losses.) If price doesn't do what I expect, I get out. That simple.
I will check back in, after a month or so, to see if price ended up going lower, as I anticipate.
Just because I believe it will go lower, does not mean it is worth risking my money on it.
GLTA
Yes, it would. There is a major reversal signal on the chart. Keep in mind nothing is 100% guaranteed.
:)
The chart still looks bearish to me. I am willing to take a loss here, if it comes to that. I have very little at risk.
Okay, so 2.976M shares are from the recent warrants. It seems like more than that is being sold here?
At least according to their Nov. 10Q, they had -$4.3M in free cash flow.
"In the near term."
What does that mean? 1 month? This company is operating in negative cash flow.
I should clarify that is $50M.
Possible 50M share issuance in progress according to SEC filings:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1353487/000114420415064177/v424307_s3.htm
That is the SEC's website and is legitimate.
;)
Still short here. Today's close will be very important.
Those people that exercised their warrants have got to be selling. Otherwise, we would be over $2 now.
More weakness on news here.
If this is happening, I bet it is an insider, and this is why we are seeing mostly fluff PRs without concrete information.
Santilli Carla sold 495,000+ shares back in October. I am not saying it is her, or anything. Just saying she likes to sell stock.
If we see weakness on news again today. The people that exercised their warrants are selling
Correction: That analysis was released this morning.
Just hit the wires. Take it with a grain of salt, of course.
http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/magnegas-corp-earnings-analysis-q3-2015-by-the-numbers/
Weakness on news again.
Volume is slowing down.
Still here and short. We may retest 1.60 properly today. I am curious to see the reaction. Still looking for a break of that area.
Currently, in profit here.
Still holding short here. Seeing weakness on the news today. Let's see how it closes.
Looks like price is consolidating under the $2 mark. Here is an H1 chart with possible paths, as I see it. We should have a good idea tomorrow where things stand. It should be fairly obvious/cut-and-dried. It looks very possible, still, that we will revisit the 1.55 low from today. It may take a few days.
I could be wrong though. Been wrong a million times before. Let's see what happens.
Still holding my short. Need to see what happens tomorrow. Could go either way still, IMO.
Correction. A close below 1. 76 would be a problem.
A close below 1.80 spells trouble here. This is what I want to see by the end of the day. If the close is above 2, I will be concerned and probably end up having to exit at a minor loss here.
Really watching that close...
Good bounce off of 1.60. I am still holding short for the moment.
Expecting 1.60 zone to break. Thus far, it is holding.
Short here, premarket.
Looks like that link was bad. I will try again:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3671986-canadian-pacific-seeks-rr-deal-m-and-a-daily
Bought in this morning. Like this situation.
It looks like Rangeley Capital's founder is jumping in on NSC, based on this post on Seeking Alpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3671986-canadian-pacific-seeks-rr-deal-m-and-a-daily
I didn't think too much on it, until I saw that the guy had over 11,000 followers.
If this guy is legit, his targets are interesting. He is saying anywhere from 90 to 110, and that NSC is worth about 111 to CP.
I wish he would explain his numbers, but I guess if he is a hedge fund manager with 11K followers, maybe his numbers are legit. Maybe not though. You never know. According to his profile, he is #1 on Portfolio Strategy and Asset Allocation. I have no idea what in the world that is in relation to though... Is he #1 on Seeking Alpha? Hmmm...
There was definitely a bunch of buying that kicked in right around the time he released his article.
Exited my position. On to the next trade.
Up 44% on the day now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! INSANE
New 52 week high just set. Up 33% now.
Now up 24% on the day
NTIP up 17% now on the day.
NTIP now up 9.63%!!!
BRIEF-Network-1 Technologies increases its share repurchase program
June 18 (Reuters) - Network-1 Technologies Inc <NTIP.A>:
* Increases its share repurchase program
* Says to repurchase up to an additional $2 million in shares of its common
stock over the next twelve months
* Source text for Eikon [ID:nPn8T1h9t]
* Further company coverage [NTIP.A] ((Bengaluru Newsroom; +1 646 223 8780))
Related tickers: NETWORK-1 TECHNOLOGIES INC (NTIP) All English Language News: All English Language News Other: Business Activities, N American Securities Domestic News Service (Reuters), Reuters Corporate Newspool (Reuters), Reuters Markets Newspool (Reuters), Reuters News (Attribution Code), Securities International News Service (Reuters) Region Related: United States of America Subject Related: Reuters US Equities Newspool (Reuters)
On 2015-06-19 Steven D. Heinemann, Ten Percent Owner, purchased 360,500 Common Stock at a price 1.75. Post-transaction ownership is 2,865,645 shares (NTIP).
On 2015-06-19 Steven D. Heinemann, Ten Percent Owner, purchased 360,500 Common Stock at a price 1.75.
Post-transaction ownership is 2,865,645 shares (NTIP).
Ownership type: Indirect ownership
Reported: 2015-06-19, Filed: 2015-06-19
Form: 4
Copyright 2015 Morningstar.com
Related tickers: NETWORK-1 TECHNOLOGIES INC (NTIP) All News: All News
NTIP up 4.28% so far today.