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Interest rate will be dropped. Market expectation, which should be negative for the market because of earnings but market, does not trade on logic at least for ¾ of the time.
Farooq
2X-Be-Me,
There was an outside chance of taking out 43.95 they are trying it hard result yet to be seen, I will reduce my short if 43.95 taken out. They squeezed us well; Our Bias towards short has taken many opportunities from us. I am not going long here but I will be on sideline there is a limit how much one can loose. I am a trader I am wrong today I sold my longs @ 43.52 too early and I was wrong many times before.
I have one fear now this market is on hot air when it will stop it will crash. There are too many un easy longs when they will seek exit there will not be enough space to be out so the doors will be broken and building will collapse. I am loosing 18 cents as I am writing 43.80 are the print. I hate to be on sideline. I might try NERS with 2K lots.
Farooq
stock-trace,
IB is great if you do not need hand holding. There system is very fast. Be care full you can make mistakes. You can bid any price on options in pennies but not 1/2 or 0.875 0.87 is ok. I do all the time but then your order goes to only Boston exchange. Other exchanges still do not allow that.
I agree with your call on next few days.
Farooq
A huge Bolck of NOV 43PUT QQQQ 30000 contract sold @ bid 0.10 OE would be @ 43. JMHOP
I wish I am wrong and they bring it down to 42. Full short here.
Farooq
EspressoCoffee,
We close below 100 line rules says we should stay short. Am I missing some thing?
OE affecting QQQQ, huge puts were bought they will expire them worth less. Mine included although I hope it drop 200 to 300 points in next 2 days, LOL. That is a hope indicator, which is mostly wrong.
I do agree with your call on market direction.
Farooq
Great observation.
2 things here market participant are distributing or they are consolidating. I think they are distributing but it does not matter with this system.
I think with CCI based system you still take necessary money management skills to improve your odds. If you are short then 10 cents stop is adequate so is if you are long.
Dropping below 43.25 will verify down ward short-term direction (1 - 3 days).
This system does not care much for long-term trend if you are using shorter time frame data.
It is good to know when change of direction is near, market becomes choppy so will this system, it is still a trend following system which shows on extreme trend can change for short term. JMHOP.
Farooq
stock-trace
Good trading and good observation.
I am out of my longs @ 43.45 waiting for short signal. May go long again. It is a tough market to trade. My bias is still on short side. This is the point where market participant can sell in size. I do not see it going down a lot. 51 are new target. Short bias is for couple of weeks and then I plan to buy long calls for six months.
Farooq
W@G1 QQQQ 11/13/06 for a 11/15/06 close
43.00 Myself °¿°
42.79 DrWorm
42.30 frenchee
42.10 Farooq
Stock-trace,
Good post, I enjoy your posts thank you for sharing them.
I am short on logic that 3 times they have done upside OE and participants do not repeat pattern again and again; so this time I might be lucky; now my stop loss is on 43.25 we need to close below 42.75 to start decline. JMHOP
I was wrong many times and I could be in future too.
Farooq
I am short now @ 43.16 and long DEC 43 puts from 0.80, 0.85 and 0.90 so average 0.85. sold all long calls. One spread left long DEC 44 and short DEC 42. My stop is 43.35 in that case I will revert short and go long
Farooq
be,
In case you are wrong where is your stop? What is average of your short? TIA
Farooq
EspressoCoffee,
Yes, agree again but managing this way create too much pressure, Market participant do forget that some time computers can fail and with these complicated derivatives it could become lot more complex to hold. I am glad they came back to senses, some one bought Nov 43 Puts, 8000 contract at the close @ ask (that shows a buy) so some thing is cooking.
We still could test 43 tomorrow JMHOP.
Farooq
Be,
Good observation; near the close it start acting like a market, I am out with out profit or loss paid commission out of pocket. Still holding my puts.
Farooq
EspressoCoffee,
Agree, but what I am missing? Result of election priced in, economy picture not much changed. This definitely looks artificial pump up and holding there. My analysis say once 43.31 taken out we are going to 51.40 that are scary for me.
Thanks for sharing.
Farooq
This position is going against me so far, I am still short QQQQ printing 42.63, Market participant want to test 43.31 again; but I see large volume on very little price increase, seem like distribution or could be weak short like me. What is the opinion of the board?
Thank you.
Farooq
Sold long @ 42.59 went short @ 42.55 stop 42.75. It is a day trade target 42.25. I will lock profit if they come.
Good luck to all.
Bought Nov 43 puts for Quick run tomorrow. Price 0.70.
Farooq
For a dull market,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14486943
Farooq
POKERSAM,
We started the fall because of Kerry, He has given GOP what was needed. Few percentage points and that can keep GOP for 2 more years. So now artificial respirator is not needed and we can go down. I do not think now we will go back and retest previous high. We might have reaction if GOP wins both houses, which I thought they might, now it will be a miracle if Democrats win, even one,. Kerry was a lousy candidate for last election, I still wonder which hand was behind his nomination, and it was like giving Mr. Bush Presidency in a platter for his favors to special groups. Now we will drop hard if Democrats win even one house, if both houses then we can crash to July low.
Just thinking loud.
Farooq
Covered my short @ 42.44 now in cash added some Nov 43 puts this morning.
Farooq
November Golden Guru Award entry
QQQQ
High 43.35
Low 39.82
Close 41.32
Farooq
I am not very clear about that but R/R favors short here so I am choosing that.
Farooq
Wow, LOL.
Short filled again 42.66 stop 43.10. Have order in for more puts. Trying @ 0.30.
Farooq
stock-trace,
I think market sells off for 7, to 10 days on any party win. I agree with you again in fiscal irresponsibility. They might sell it to 14 days if Democrats win both houses.
Farooq
stock-trace,
OT,
Agree, They might give an opportunity to short @ 42.80 to 43 areas, What will be the response if GOP win both houses???
Democrats lack grass root campaign and infra structure.
Farooq
Covered my short shares @ 42.33, Still long Nov 42 puts from 0.35.
Not so sure here so just covered it. I will go short again if we break 42.15.
Farooq
W@G2 QQQQ 11/01/06 for a 11/03/06 close
41.42
W@G1 QQQQ 10/30/06 for a 11/01/06 close
41.67 frenchee
41.55 Farooq
gloe,
"Haven't you heard? Penny spreads coming soon to a broker near you."
Available on IB now.
Farooq
capt_jmj,
OT, There are very bright chances that Republicans will win both houses after this event they will come down hard. Excuse will be Market was not expecting that. JMHOP.
Farooq
Although I wish that they should loose at least one house. I am a Democrat.
gloe,
What are negatives? why you hate it?
If we can create our own password protected room?
Farooq
Pinkster,
That is great idea to create a chat room there. That would be like woodie room. I will download that. Are you going to be in specific chat room?
May be other can join there too during trading hour also.
Farooq
gloe,
I do not like over night in futures, that was the primary reason.
I am short QQQQ which is under water my stop for them is 1 1/2 % and I am long enough puts; so I have enough on the plate left. I just want to try this system. Thank you very much for giving your time, sharing and correcting us. I totally agree with your new line.
Farooq
I am out of short with 8 tick profit.
Farooq
Thanks, both views make sense; price is easy. I shorted there one batch let's see I will use 10 Tick trailing stop. This system seems like less work, doing it with NQ.
Farooq
On QQQQ it just came below 200. If short here stop will be price or CC1 48 going above?
Farooq
I join you I am short here, stop loss 43.10 target 41.10 this is a long-term trade next target is 40.25. Do you own D/D. Long QQQWP now.
Farooq
My fill was 42.60.
st,
I agree with you.
Three things here,
1- I am not a good trader that any one follow.
2- I am still in that trade and it was not a high confidence trade, I am my self double minded, I am a human being too. I mentioned in my post also, It is a cry for input.
3- After entering trade ( a limit order) I left my office when I came back I saw it is filled so I put trailing stop and posted it.
Next time if I am in a trade I will not mention Price or stops if that helps this board. I am again very sorry that I did not posted at the time of execution.
Chart is suggesting my stop could be taken out in next hour or so but I am still in.
Farooq
Please do you own D/D.
I went short in morning @ 42.40 with target of 41.90. What board thinks about my position? I am ready to take option position but a bit confused here, 42.60 yesterday was rejected and today it should be tested again, but too many sellers. Do you think buying 42 Puts make sense here? Volume on those puts are so high which suggest that MM will take QQQQ much higher or side way to erode premium; Just thinking loud, any take on that?
Capt. JMJ, You were right on money about OE I was wrong by one day I salute you.
Farooq
I forgot to mention my trailing stop is @ 42.25.
stock-trace,
1-We need to retest previous high before we go down.
2- Market participant will try to fill the gap left earlier; if we come back from this level then we are coming back hard. JMHOP
Farooq
gloe,
Thank you very much; I highly appreciate your contribution and generosity of sharing.
I am able to link 2 indicators in one panel, Thank you again.
Farooq