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I think till we take out minimum 43.16 on closing basis other wise we are still in uptrend. That does confirm you view. I still do not see it closing below 44 for today. I was wrong many times before.
JMHOP
Nocona,
I did some shorting on that basis, But I covered 80% by end of yesterday and remaining in the morning, I did 3% portfolio short in puts yesterday it is a short term trade.
I do have a bad habit that I do take profit on my projected prices. I do not let them run in day trading, NERS is correcting that problem to some extent, now with the system I do not have projected prices so it is becoming better and losses are becoming smaller, Thanks to you and gloe for sharing your hard work.
Thank you,
That eat out puts premium, you need to hedge and keep some powder dry, Using 30% margin is sign one is going over board. Once win rate is over 63 % one can day trade with 20% more margin. JMHOP
I am still not long just 3% of my portfolio in short puts. Which are giving me 750$ now, and I might take it.
Nocna,
NERS work fine if you add 65 MA on 5 min 144 CCI. Then it keep you in the right direction, I also use a 10 cents trailing stop. CCI alone will not help in market with volatile moves, like yesterday it gave many false signals.
I still will be surprise if we close below 44. Closing below 43.16 will confirm the trend change. JMHOP
I covered my Short shares of QQQQ @ 44.30 I was ready to cover @ 44.60 but got lucky, covered some Jan 43 short calls @ 1.35. Now thinking to sell short some puts, Sold 80% long 45 Jan and Feb 44 puts. Any in put?
May be I am doing it early. Taking profit is part of the game. And I still think we should go higher. I will be short again if 44 is taken out on closing basis.
Good luck.
96.12 now
95.82 now
95.58 now
95.38 now
96.30 now
Good job, if you need to impress us then post before the fact so we can see how many are losers and how many are winners. You do not need to post all which you should give to your paid subscribers, but to post enough to give you credibility that you are getting what you are predicting.
Good luck.
DrWorm,
May be I am not clear. It is a drill to do with every trade winner or loser so you can keep good lessons with you and remember mistakes and avoid them.
Options should not be more then 5 % of your capital I am talking about short-term options. That 5 % should be for all short-term positions. One should always do spread, even if it is giving you few % at least if you are wrong you are wrong few % less most spreads gives you 30 to 40% so you are taking same position but paying 30 40 % less, Once trade is comfortable you can always add a leg.
Long term could be used for leaps; In case of leaps always do spreads. One should not invest more then 5 % in one position. I do one thing for a long position I buy stock and write a call for period I want to hold and I am hoping it is going there. With premium I will buy 5-7 % out of money puts I might add a bit in that, now I have stop in place and I can ride it better.
When I am writing this I am reminding it to my self also.
Good luck.
DrWorm,
Do you like to share those 2 bad trades with us?
Explain with out justification what was the reason to go in those 2 trades.
2- what you did to protect yourself in case you are wrong? Did you started with protective measures first or you just went in to it.
3- how long did you stay in the trade once it became obvious that it is going against you.
4- did you protect yourself once it became bad or you just came out of the trades?
Answering to these questions at this point will seem strange but trust me in the longer run you will become great trader. You are already a very good trader.
Taking a loss is very difficult but once you realize it is part of business and you keep it to minimum you are on the way to be the best in business. There is a lot of hard work and little luck in this business. Good luck.
My unofficial one is 44.90.
Gloe,
Are you basing that on CCI 12 or some other indicators?
Thanks for sharing.
Today when QQQQ was 45.15 a big block of 10000 Jan 43 calls was bought @ 2.30 , at the time Bid was 2.15 and ask was 2.20, based on my previous observation in next 32 hours we will dip below 45 and on EXP will be around 45. Although there is block of 40000 puts sold @ 0.30 and after that we Jumped to new range. I will be a bit surprise if we close on Friday below 44.
One more thing we will go to 45.40 before coming down. NERS do not need that It will put me in right direction when that will happen.
Thanks for NERS.
Do you think if you go long you can prove him to be wrong?
I posted 2 Questions I found 1 answer, I again posted 2 one. Thanks again for your hard work and sharing it.
Good luck.
Thank you for sharing, I like it. At least some insurance is warranted @ that point.
Teaparty Idea,
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p07082827799&a=90...
I do like it if nothing else I will buy some insurance @ that level. Professionals sell in to strength Just remember that.
I agree with this observation, but things happen when you expecting them least. JMHOP
Walkingshadow,
You are probably on target as usual, but my take is every one is in a surprise because we may go up to 15% from 42.60 before any meaning full correction.
Good to see you back.
Good luck.
W@G1 QQQQ 01/16/07 for a 01/17/07 close (MLK Day is Monday)
45.50 Dr_Sean
45.31 DrWorm
44.86 frenchee
44.20 Dr.Farooq
I am changing my W@G before open for 1/17/07 close
Great call, Good job, keep it up.
Correct.
I am, and actually after posting I realize why does some thing, which NERS is not saying so I covered @ BE but com loss.
You can always write a bearish call spread so you still can keep your shares March 47 short and 48 long.
I was wrong so far; apart from few stocks most technology stocks are very strong. So buying some DEC 47 makes more sense. Pullbacks could be shallow and short. It is buy on the dip market. I am short here but I am uneasy short. There is no fundamental reason to be short, except we are over bought, which is a least reliable indicator, historically we correct near option Exp. We might have corrected in first week of month.
I am short from 45.30 and my stop is @ 45.70, I am looking for 44.60 area for today’s close.
Market is strong because participants are thinking that with oil price drop Feds will not need to hike the rate, premises that started down draft and gave us about 4 % correction from 12/15/06 to 1/03/07. Since then oil was not able to recover and keep sliding hence lifting the pressure of future inflation from participants mind.
We are still a discount to Euro and JPY about 5% if $ move up or market moves up this disparity will move out and then pendulum will move in other direction.
In technical break out " which seems eminent at the time" I did my part of mistake to write a bearish call spread for which I will pay, Since I was not sure I did not went naked so my loss is limited to 60$ per contract and luckily I started with 30 Contracts only. I start small and if it goes as plan I would increase, most of the time I do not add to a losing situation.
War makes it more difficult for market to go significantly higher, although war spending it self is a stimulant for the economy, but defense $ spending create 4$ and public sector about 9.
Market still needs to discount new jolt of negative spending.
In all these views I will be trading with NERS because it does not need all that in put for trading.
All my random thought I decided to put out see what other member thinks.
If we close below 44.65 on QQQQ that will be negative for the coming week and that can increase volatility, there is 10 % chance as of this moment I bought few 45 PUTS for JAN @ 0.35 it is gambling money.
Good luck to all.
46.90 is in card for Jan- Feb time frame. I do think OP EXP can bring downward pressure by Monday Tuesday.
Great call Quiet, you are the man.
Good luck again.
W@G1 QQQQ 01/16/07 for a 01/17/07 close (MLK Day is Monday)
44.62 DrWorm
42.85 Dr.Farooq
Are you going short or just selling long of 12/28.
Good call.
Trading is all I do now.
d-k,
Good trade, I covered my previous trade with 5 cents profit, now will go short if EMA 34 on 5 min charts is broken.
I continue to trade NERS setups which went long @ 11.40 AM.
Ners went short @ 12:25 PM
stock-trace,
I just entered a trade, with 44.65 stop loss instead of buying calls I went naked. As I am writing trade is in black so Stop loss is @ even money + COM.
I agree with your scenario, my gut feeling is we might see 41.85 before going up.
Good to know you point of view. Thanks for sharing.
Dr. Farooq
Short here @ 44.31 with paired 44 calls are a good trade.
Dr. Farooq
40,000 Put Jan 44 series sold @ bid of 0.30. Some body is betting OE will be higher then 44. In short term we might see a fire work to the down side, Not today but in coming 2-3 days. There is heavy volume in 44 Jan calls also. To hedge puts seller is buying 42 puts. JMHOP
Dr. Farooq
GLENO34
If economy is going down so should market. If market goes up then one is wrong either market or oil people.
JMHOP, Good luck.
Dr. Farooq
Kentkun,
These rules have helped me I hope they will be helpful for you too.
If I will be in your shoes I will use initially 20 Cents stop loss from entry point, Once I am making money and Using a broker like IB I will move it to BE + COM, and follow the NERS rules, If rules says to out and you do not have 20 Cents loss NERS will take precedent on 20 Cents stop loss.
You can always enter the market, I am trading for 35 years I still doubt myself many times in a day.
Knowing risk is strength not a weakness in market. You will be fine.
Use 10 % of your risk capital on trades, and then gradually increase its size weekly or monthly.
If wrong decrease the sizes never increase, this rule is for day trading.
I do not average down on day trades.
I hope Nocona can give you better advice; Nocona and Gloe are great peoples.
Good luck.
Farooq
W@G2 QQQQ 01/10/07 for a 01/12/07 close
45.00 Dr_Sean
44.60 Farooq
EspressoCoffee
Good observation, I think un till we take out 42.50 on closing basis it is great trading market with upper band @ 44.70.
JMHOP.
One can make more money in non-directional market in short term, I must admit NERS is working fine so far.
I have a put a bearish call spread at close I am long Feb 45 and short Jan 42 if Jan drop more then 60 Cents my Fab calls will become free, any thing more on down side is gravy,
I think we have pretty good chance to see 42.80 in coming week.
Farooq
W@G1 QQQQ 01/08/07 for a 01/10/07 close
42.95 Farooq
Be,
Select indicators add woodie's pivots then add woodie's pivots extra from indicator panel. Click apply and ok.
I hope it helps.
Farooq
Golden Guru forecast:
High: 45.10
Low: 41.85
Close: 44.60
Farooq
W@G2 QQQQ 01/03/07 for a 01/05/07 close
43.98 Myself °¿°
42.65 Farooq