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Doc, Thank you,
My point was this a trader board not long term investors.
Good find, nothing is 100% that is why it is called market.
Good luck.
If no rate cut,
We will go down for few hours may test 1410 - 1420 area on SPX and then race to new high.
If rate cut happen we start a slow bear market.
I do not think there is any rate cut coming. JMHOP.
In 1919 market declined far more then it rallied, It actually tested 1917 lows again. In 1945 rallied it tested previous low 4 times in next five years. In 1952 rally it tested same lows and some more in 1953.
In 1975 it took us 7 years to go over initial rally.
I would hope you will put a question after looking a chart. May be for you 5-7 bear market has no value.
How many stocks you are holding for more then 10 years.
I am long some shares for last 33 Years. On options board horizon is few days to few months. JMHOP.
Good luck.
Market rallied in initial months in 1919 market corrected 25% after initial run, and same happen in 1945, Market corrected 30% in 1946, I do not have Korean war data. Chart shows little less then 20% correction from 302 to 257.
After initial bear market economic growth take effect and we move up.
Thanks,I am still with it now stop moved to 44.90.
Stopped out @ target.
Going Long QID @ 44.62 stop 44.45 target 44.90
Sold @ target 95.50.
No position now.
Stop moved up to 94.40 like to save some profit in and out cost is 1 Cents so better preserve it.
Still aiming for 95.50.
I am in with you but from 94 stop 93.80.
Target 95.50.
Farooq
POKERSAM,
You are right, market showed strength on Friday, to fool the people om Monday, Today's close will be important to watch.
As a trader I follow my rules, protect your profit like your loss.
QID is projecting now 46.30 in near future. JMHOP.
Thanks for sharing your views. Hope you are making money.
What vehicle you trade now a days?
I am trading mostly QID for day trading.
Average was 145.50
I am stopped out at 146.
Stop on SPY position has now moved up to 146.00 Wants to keep some gains.
W@G1 QQQQ 09/10/07 for a 09/12/07 close
48.40 Farooq (Although I do think 49.30 is a real possibility)
48.23 DrWorm
48.20 dr_sean
47.99 frenchee
47.50 bob3
47.00 marin
46.30 sonic
I went long SPY 50% will wait for close to buy calls.
Stop 144.65.
How I will trade here,
I will go long SPX on 1452 Success full test and put a stop @ 1447, If it is taken out on closing basis I will reverse to short with target of 1417 -1410 area.
JMHOP.
Farooq
Pokersam,
First congratulation on great call.
Last rate cut brought correction in bear market (although Nasdq is still in a bear market), once they stopped we went to new high(a little manipulation on these indexes did help), same was true when Fed was raising rate to burst the bubble and we continue climb. JMHOP.
There is always could be exceptions.
Thank you for sharing your views.
We will rally to 1520- 1530 on SPX and then decline begin to test previous low of this year. Declining rates are evidence of weakness in economy and market as a rule rarely go up in rate cut (No Bull market, only corrections in bear markets).
It is possible we might stop at Pokersam target of 1505-1510.
As long we are in a war no bear market is possible, all are corrections.
As soon war will end, in 2-3 months we will start a bear market which will be remember for long time at least 29 months to 38 months long.
The top will be consist of 4 -6 months, market will start discounting this event 3 months before actual event and after stopping we will go to new high for 1-2 months.
JMHOP.
If they do not cut rate market in short term will go down 2-5 days but will remain in uptrend in 3-9 month period.
JMHOP.
I think market is trying to go and test 1480 one more time.
We failed previous time to test the low, I see after 4th of September we will be trying 1440-1430 area one more time and then may be 1400 - 1390,(I see this less then 30% chance for it on Fibonacci golden spiral) I think we may go near last high and then fail from there to shake up things.
Excessive put buying and bearish call spread on SPX has created a floor for time being.
I am using my system for short term trade.
Any comments?
Good luck.
QT has that problem because of error data spike or missed data (because of data vendors) clean data does not give that problem but it can happen. It is better to have 2 sources to confirm entry or exit.
Pokersam,
My thinking is we will go and breach 1470 before coming down and it will have to wait for 4-6 more business days. it could be 300-500 points drop, it could be an event spread on 2 days in that event magnitude will be less. I seriously doubt we will break recent lows in meaning full way. That event has to wait 4-6 weeks. JMHOP.
I was wrong many times as I was right many times so I thought to share my work, I respect your effort and work.
Thank you for sharing your ideas.
Farooq
Pokersam,
Is that cash spx figure or future?
TIA.
W@G1 08/20/07 for a 08/22/07 close [chart added]
47.85 anderl
47.54 frenchee
47.00 marin
46.90 rayrohn
46.70 dr_sean
46.31 DrWorm
46.15 bob3
45.40 Farooq (Just for Fun, I think we need to revisit this area)
Rab120,
I wrote on this board about 6 weeks ago my up side projection missed by less then percent (I was consulting future charts 1566.30 on 07-16-2007) will I miss by 1% again?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21197131
Here what I wrote then,
"Pokersam,
Hi, I think a meaning full retracement is not in picture till we hit 1579 - 1585 area on S&P.
JMHOP.
Here are my current views,
Market saw the signs of war ending in Iraq yesterday and that was a correct response to rally along with short squeeze, but in few weeks reality will set in that Govt. spending is going to slow down and real estate crisis will hit hard, inflation rise. That will set the stage for correction that is where TA match with reality.
I think we will come back and test 1380-1370 area of March low again. I was wrong many times and I could be in future also so do your own due diligence.
EW is correct some time and some time not.
I appreciate your hard work.
Short squeeze is bad in the long run, In absence of shorts there is no support for falling prices and that what is coming in few months.
I am long but with protective puts, 2% out of money. My deductible is 2% and these rallies are making up nicely.
People have high hopes from you because some of your calls were right on the money."
I think real test is today and tomorrow's close for re test, till then taking what market and NERS giving, thanks to you and Pop.
Thanks to you all again.
Farooq
I think a laptop cost 1/20 of your daily income, you probably have 5-10 lying around there.
Good luck.
I use a laptop and wireless card as Third back up. If you must stay in touch consider that option.
Farooq
Doc,
I am trading a bit modified NERS with QID mostly, I feel I am blessed, Doing exceptionally good, I do not know how long it will last.
I just forget sometime to post. I will try after close today.
Good luck.
Farooq
DOC,
Real impact is on psychology, if one feel that even my MM account is not even safe enough they will take it out of those account which in the short run drain more liquidity from that segment, if they are catering to certain segment that have more impact.
Our psychology is main force behind rising stock prices nothing work better then mentality. Fear is mother of all bear market.
You read right.
Farooq
Really?
The fund is Sentinel and is attached to mostly future traders.
Farooq
One MM (Money Market) fund stop redemption could not pay back to customers.
Farooq
" The general market typically follows performance of the banks so I think a bear market is not out of the question"
I agree with you 100% this the point which many people miss.
Doc,
You have good argument, but markets are weak then general perception, I am taking extreme possibilities here.
My program is still on sell.
All bets are off if Fed infuse massive liquidity + 50 - 60 Billions.
They added 24 Billions today.
Farooq
OT: You must be confusing with some thing else.
Pokersam,
Congratulation on good call, I still think 1375 is doable on SPX as I mentioned here before, my calculation could be off 1%.
Farooq
I think we want to tag 1375 on SPX, Scary. May be tomorrow if not then Monday.
Pokersam,
He made a great call, I think you need to admit that.
JMHOP.
Farooq
W@G1 QQQQ 07/30/07 for a 08/01/07 close
49.18 frenchee
48.75 dr_sean
48.56 Farooq (Low could be around 47.35 ----- 47.48 I think we will snap back from 1430 on SPX cash)
48.48 rayrohn
47.99 DrWorm
47.50 AZ123
It is a 50% retracement off current move, you took optimum spot for OE week.
Farooq
W@G2 QQQQ 07/18/07 for a 07/20/07 close
50.50 rayrohn - just a W@G
50.23 DrWorm
50.00 anderl - I was thinking the same thing doc.
49.88 marin
49.74 ghetto fabalis
49.65 bob3
49.30 Farooq
49.00 frenchee