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The problem with your analysis is exactly this - if the house is worth less and you can't continue to make your payments (due to job loss, etc), you can't just "walk" away. Then what? No equity built, means no cushion, or even a line of credit to draw upon during desparte times..
Swooning under the 100MA on the COMP within the next month will also be a good way for the specialists to increase thier inventories. Will freak a lot of people out. You know I love to go long and short, but I think I will just add to my long entries if that occurs. No sense in selling my longs acquired next week for a measly additional 70 point swoon.
Sorry, I saw that after I submitted my post. Looks like a very sound opinion. Thanks!
Wow! You have a nasty last 5 months of this year. Completely opposite of what I am expecting. You are suggesting Bush and his team will not have enough bullets left to float the market higher into elections?
Zeev,
Sorry if you hav posted this before, but it seems like our analysis matches up for next week. The COMP should get to 1970 or so, which is where the 100MA line will be next week as evidenced by the following chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb100!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9...
What is your expected top on the COMP after this correction? I am leaning toward a double top on the COMP forming three weeks later, which then expect the avearges to be in the summer doldrums early this year. With the presidential election at the end of this year, the BIG BOYS will want to jump the gun during late summer.
By the way, how did your financing go? We currently closed our bridge round and are now in the midst of a Private Placement to close next month. Customers, investors, and business is picking up.
Hoefully you left some dough on the side to short more PXLW at $16.20 if they decide to take out some upward stops. I am expecting such a spike now in the Monday AM, and freed up some cash to take advantage of the possible opportunity. LOL
Here, here, Captain.
Excellent input. Lets make that 3 :)
If there is two things I learned the last 8 years of trading its 1) Don't put yourself in the vicinity of a margin call, and 2) Stay patient.
Good luck
You are right. But it will be a suckers move if my scenerio (and yours too it looks like) pans out early next week.
Well.. if we get that massive reversal, it needs to start at 2:22..lol
It gives me great comfort that PXLW's brother GNSS has a chart that is looking to fall too..
DSCM looks ready to fall too. Thanks for the heads up!
Damn itch finger, lol. Could have done $17.80 on PXLW. Oh well. Good luck all. I'm holding short till Wednesday AM..
Just make sure you have play roon for it to move up to $16...don't get shaken.
Ripe indeed. The chart says low $13's in a couple of days all the way. Under $13 would make me really smile and I may have to take a vacation soon...
Itchy finger, final short on PXLW at $15.71 eom
I lied. If they take PXLW to $15.80, I will take one more short position on it and ride it next week..
We may get an exciting reversal after lunch today. A Valentine rally will still occur, but from lower levels on Tuesday-Wednesday IMHO.
Fully position short on PXLW at $15.45, with a cost average at $15.26 eom
Full position short on PXLW at $15.45 eom. Goal: Low 13's next 3 days. eom
Shorted PXLW at $15.00 today. Will average in at a higher price tomorrow if they let me ;). I think it's time to play the peaks and valleys will be enduring for a long time now..
Much more prudent now to wait out the doldrums. The market needs it correction earlier in the year so they can beat the drum into the elections. I agree Wahz, could be a bunch of back in forth which only the swing trader will do well on in the next 6 months..
NENG - I just bailed on a day trade. Chart candle is not what makes rallies. Looking for lower entry next several months..
NENG getting some action now..
Buying coming into the market now..2:22 LOL!
Given a correctionj is looming, how lw is NENG expected to go. Clip under $4.00?
BKBOF reports Tuesday after the market. Expecting big things from this small cap. It's a buy and holder for me..
BKBOF volume coming in. Expecting a breakout soon. Already up a nice 25% on that one...
Wahz: Keep an eye on BKBOF. They are reporting at the end of January, and all investment shares are locked until February..
Nice move on OME lately. You ever hold on to that one?
BKBOF turning around finally, or is it just your buying? LOL
Got into BKBOF yesterday at $2.65 for a long term swing trade (I'm talking several years). Thier winning OEM positions with a bunch of leading storage companies. My hope is only that they do not got bought up to soon so I can realize thier growth potential in storage over the next several years.
And then again maybe we met over no Bob's older penny board - "bobz.com". Was very active there during 1998-2000.
Yes. I am a "grey beard". lol. Been on investors hub since almost the beginning, but that was not 10 years ago. More like 4.
Prior to that I used to hang out on the QUIET board on Raging Bull, tracking IPO's.
Wahz - Been lurking for a while now. I think you are correct on the coming rally for the next several years. Storage and optics especially get my vote for the next uptrend. Check out BKBOF when you get a chance. Nice volume last few month, and just went profitable in October. Looking for 5-10x current price in the next two years..
Here is additional news from the summer, but nevertheless tells the story of the uptick in demand on storage that will be needed as IM usage picks up (which I think will surpass email usage due to its real time capabilities).
http://dc.internet.com/news/article.php/2224481
I am doing work in the IM (instant message space) and storage is gonna get a push as usage increases. Finance companies are required to store IM for 2-6 years.
BKBOF - Hidden gem? Starting to do my homework on it and it looks like its got great OEM deals in storage. Chart looks real nice, and thinking about dipping toe in soon. Anyone know anything about that company?