You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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I believe the email from Dan K, Public Relations for ERHC , provides the update to prove the naysayers are absolutely dead wrong that LOI has dissipated and is no longer being negotiated. This is what was needed to end the redicuous speculation the the LOI died and nothing would be said by the company. How anyone could make such outrageous claims indicates how wrong those so called opinions are/were. It makes one have to reevaluate and question the entire thinking of those naysayers.
One has to admit the wait for the Announcement of the "partnership" has been very frustrating but should be very rewarding when it finally is announced. None of the true longs will be selling there shares while we wait for the announcement. Only those with negative opinions of ERHC should sell and be gone with it. They will not be missed.
It should be noted that today the big bidder for 500,000 shares of ERHC has raised his bid from 7.3 cents to 7.5 cents. It appears this is too little of an increase and he still will not get these shares at this price.
Emdyal, do you realize it takes extra time in Africa especially if you are dealing with the Chinese!. the new partner will likely be Sinopec or a subsidiary of Sinopec. ERHC has too much history and connection with Sinopec for them not to be first in line. It is always easier to deal with people you know than to take a chance on a new relationship. The Chinese have the need, the desire and the money as well as the current relationship with ERHC, I would be VERY surprised if the LOI was with anyone else. The Chinese are certainly the favorite.
Keep in mind the Chinese are very slow and methodically in their approach to any business dealings. This also fits the present time line. Contrary to what the naysayers may say, the long amount of time this is taking DOES NOT mean the LOI is out the door, it likely means the Chinese are inside the door, in the negotiating room.
The bottom line is that your comments about the offering failing are wrong and have no basis. This is just an incorrect and unjustified negative slant since you do not look at the big picture. IMO you are absolutely wrong in your statements. I realize you have a right to your opinion, but you can not back up your statements with any proof.
Umbra, I agree that Strategy1's post was excellent. I also agree that the new partner will be Sinopec or a subsidiary of Sinopec. ERHC has too much history and connection with Sinopec for them not to be first in line. It is always easier to deal with people you know than to take a chance on a new relationship. The Chinese have the need, the desire and the money as well as the current relationship with ERHC, I would be VERY surprised if the LOI was with anyone else. The Chinese are certainly the favorite.
Keep in mind the Chinese are very slow and methodically in their approach to any business dealings. This also fits the present time line. Contrary to what the naysayers may say, the long amount of time this is taking DOES NOT mean the LOI is out the door, it likely means the Chinese are inside the door, in the negotiating room.
Krom, you may be right, the 500,000 bidder could be a short. Even if he is, he would be smart to raise his bid BEFORE the LOI news breaks. This AM the SP hit 8 cents with fair volume. IMO those that want shares will need to pay at least 7.9 cents, so the big bidder may have to come to his senses whether he is unloading his short position or a true long and pay the ~8 cent price to get those shares. It appears no one (especially large block holders) are selling for under 7.9 cents. As the clock ticks and we get closer and closer to an announcement, I do NOT see the SP getting lower. I only see buying pressure pushing up the SP. Time will tell.
The shareprce goes to 7.9 cents but the bidder of 500,000 shares maintains his bid at 7.3 cents. How long can he hold out?
ERHC's cost of doing business are a fact of life and are not changing. Keep in mind all of the additional "expert" staff ERHC has on board to help out with Kenya and Chad to insure planning for the drilling locations is done properly and that our potential partner(s) are kept up to speed. One must realize that you have to spend money to make money.
IMO, there will not be an update from ERHC as they are very close to announcing the actual details of the finalized agreement. I believe the announcement will be very soon, maybe this week or next, but certainly by the end of August.
The person who is at the 7.3 cent bid for 500,000 shares remains there presently. My guess he will soon up his bid price in order to get the shares he wants. Anyone that puts in an order for 500,000 shares is truly a buyer and is very serious about obtaining those shares. He will get very anxious when his bid does not get filled and will very likely do something about it. IMO, the SP will reach 8 cents before that order is filled.
Very informative board concerning ERHC. Why is the board titled Addax? Is this some kind of undercover operation? Do I need a secret password to get in?
DeGen
Level II shows a 480,000 share buy bid at 7.5 cents at the close. If I remember correctly this order increased the bid price of 7.3 cents earlier in the day to 7.5 cents, but I may be mistaken. I wonder if this is the same BIG buy from a week or so ago. I do not believe that buyer got the shares he wanted.
Is news coming? I sure hope so!
DeGen
I see after the 9:30 open, the bid moves WAY down to 7.1 cents, and ask moves down to 8.9 cents. This dashes my hopes of hitting the ten cent barrier today. I guess we really have to wait for the LOI before seeing any real share price appreciation.
DeGen
At the close on Friday there was a bid in at 8.4 cents for 2,000,000 shares (the ask was 9 cents). That bid is not showing anymore, at least for 2,000,000 shares. That amount of interest could not have disappeared.
The ask has two 10,000 shares lots at 9 cents. Then several ask at 10 cents after that. IMO, it is possible we will break into double figures today and hopefully stay there indefinitely.
DeGen
More accurate math: but really no big difference!
That's $27.5 per barrel...
10% of 553M barrels = 55.3M barrels for $1.52B... it must be a developed field.
Middy, I think you need to reread my post. I did NOTsay that the LOI was a cure all for ERHC as you imply in your post. What I said was:
" With this lifeline, ERHC carry likely follow through with Chad and likely be able to holdout long enough for something good to happen in the EEZ and possibly something to happen in the JDZ"
I agree that the LOI will not solve ALL of ERHC's problems. But what it will do is likely give ERHC more time for other good news to occur. Please stop being so negative and realize a LOI will be good news for ERHC.
Don't worry, be happy!
DeGen
At this moment we all sit anxiously awaiting the LOI announcement of a partner. This is monumental for ERHC, as without a Rich Daddy to carry ERHC, the company will run out of money. But if the LOI is announced this gives new and likely long lasting life for ERHC. With this lifeline, ERHC carry likely follow through with Chad and likely be able to holdout long enough for something good to happen in the EEZ and possibly something to happen in the JDZ. Without the LOI the house of cards will likely come down.
But with a new partner in Kenya, the future looks very bright and the the SP will react accordingly. After the LOI announcement wil the SP hit 20 cents? I do not know for sure, but I sure hope so. Can the SP continue to go up from there? Why not, with all the other good things that may come around. Will the management option come into play? I really doubt it, but there is no harm in hoping for the miracle, is there?
I can not wait for the market to open next week and see if this recent uptrend continues. Is everyone out there as excited as me to see what happens next week? Can ERHC get into double digits? Can ERHC get back to 15 cents BEFORE any LOI announcement? Tune in next week to find out.
Minnesinger,
Thank you for posting that factual data about other LOIs. You should post more and lurk less as you contributions are valuable.
DeGen
Amin-vb, i TOTALLY agree.
IMO the dollar value of the short position holders is so small compared to total value of all the shares. It is just not worth all the fuss over.
The stampede of buyers after the long weekend must have gotten lost on the trail.
The longs are content to sit and wait for the LOI to be completed. The longs hold on to their shares not letting them go at these low prices with the partnership coming soon.
As far as the EEZ goes, IMO finding a partner that will carry us like ERHC did in the JDZ will be very difficult if not impossible. The data available in the EEZ is no where close to what was available in the JDZ. Now that that most of the JDZ came up empty I see little hope for the EEZ. Who will pay for the seimics? ERHC does not have the money to do it. No seimics, no partners, it is that simple. There are many blocks a available in the EEZ and certainly there is no rush to explore any of them. What would make our blocks any different?
DeGen
At this point in time the EEZ is too far in the future to have any value or affect on the SP. IMO, I am not even considering the EEZ and I believe most others investors feel the same way. Nothing is going to happen with the EEZ for YEARS (and those are African years, so its more like decades!)
Krom, have you and Amim been sitting in the back room smoking the same stuff. The SP hit 15 cents on hopes that everything would work out nicely and very quickly. This has not happened, many months have gone by and ERHC has reported little or no progress. Did you see any "new" information except for the LIO. News drives the SP and news has been very infrequent. The delays we all went through with the offering were excruciating. This brought the SP down and only good news can get the SP to recover.
Let's be realistic, the SP is hovering between 7-8 lately and a jump to 15 would be a quick double. When ANY stock doubles a lot of investors take their profits and this keeps the SP from flying up further. If the SP doubles after the partnership is announced which would not suprise me. But, IMO, it will be a very slow climb after that if their is a quick double. No one wants the SP to go up more than me as this investment continues to divide my family and causes a great deal of frustration.
Middy, I agree with your reply to Amim, as I too indicated how unrealistic his estimates were. Your analysis was much better than mine with your comparison to the JDZ.
Someone dumps 220K shares at the open, likely a market order which the MMs eat right up at 6.6 cents. However, bid is already back up to 7.5 ask 8.2
Horrible way to start the week!
Armin, your price predictions are very unrealistic. The SP will not be close to a buck even with the most favorable partner announced. I would hope for 15-20 cents and would hope it would not drop back soon after reaching that mark. Let's try to be more realistic in your predictions.
DeGen
I am not sure if what you say about SEO knowing about a JV partnership in the wings would cause SEO to not participate in the offering. If one could pick up a boatload of share at 7.5 cents knowing an announcement would drive up the share price well above 7.5 cents, IMO, they would participate. SEO should have also known that if he participated in the offering, once his participation was announced it would help the SP.
IMO, SEO really wanted to participate, but something stopped him. We will never know what. Even if SEO thought his financial support was not needed because of the forthcoming partnership, SEO had a golden opportunity to buy cheap shares. I am sure SEO wanted these shares.
DeGen
Krom, it is all conjecture as far as what Blair said to Middy. I believe Middy because normally he puts a negative slant on most things that involve ERHC and here he done just the opposite. Middy had no reason to make up such a statement if he did not hear it himself. I believe he did not trade on the info and disclosed it to the board to spread his own due diligence to all those here.
It is blatantly obvious that something went wrong with the offering involving SEO. Why would PN, who is connected with SEO at the hip, even attempt the offering without the support of SEO? The time, trouble and costs could not possibly be justified without having the support of SEO upfront.
So what went wrong? We will never know. And yes, the comment about the suitcase full of cash was said in jest, but to serve as a reminder how financials tranactions of SEO may be scrutinized. I would guess SEO is on several watch lists and many banks will not deal with him.
Those who call out indicating SEO would not participate were just guessing and had already established themselves are promoting negatives thoughts about ERHC. They were just trying to continue muck the waters.
DeGen
Umbra, I tried again to update my signature. I hope this worked. What do you think?
DeGen
Vumbra, I believe SEO was in fact ready to financially support the offering. The offering was delayed to allow for money transfers to be completed (probably foreign). IMO, SEO was somehow stymied in trying to buy his share of the offering. Maybe he tried to bring in a suitcase full of cash as he has done before and the bank or brokerage house refused to accept. This is all conjecture but connects all the dots very logically. IMO, the delay in reporting the offering also had something to do with SEO as he continued to try and fund the purchase. I hate to agree with with Middy, but what he says about hearing from Blair early on that SEO would participate also connect the dots.
DeGen
Middy, maybe you missed the numerous posts explaining the fall in the share price was almost entirely caused by the failure to find oil in the JDZ blocks 2,3,4. Without oil and little money or hope the SP had no where to go but down, through no fault of ERHC's management. Now there is hope as management has added a couple very good prospects with Chad and Kenya. can you admit that management has actually accomplished something good and the SP may turn around IF these prospects work out. Only time will tell, but in most people's opinion here, management has done an outstanding job since the failure in the JDZ. After the JDZ failure most companies would have gone belly up. Let's give credit where credit is due.
Krom, Great posts! I love when you go on a rant and dissect a subject. It reminds me in a way of Balance Builder, however your posts are more logical and require less or no dots to connect.
The value of ERHC is certainly subjective and goes up and down the fears or hopes of the investors. What is the intrinsic value of ERHC is anyone's guess until oil is discovered.
I too have continually questioned the negative posters and have asked them to explain what is the purpose of their negativity. I have never received a satisfactory response.
Keep up the good work, your post ate VERY enlightening.
DeGen
Ps: For those ducks that have in the past or continue to muck up the water, please fly south for the winter.
EEEEEEEEEEEEE! What next? Another hole in the dike that Peter needs to plug immediately.
Was the 10q filed late? It's out now, so the should disappear hopefully.
Emdyal,
Do you have any positive comments about ERHC? What do you think about management getting rights in Kenya and Chad? Did you like the fact that ERHC recently signed a letter of intent? Is there anything that the company did that you can praise them for?
What has happened in the past, is gone. The JDZ drilling found no oil. We all know that. Today we can look forward to a new frontier in Kenya. Do you want to speculate on who our partner will be?
Or will you be jumping back in the pond and mucking up the waters?
Emdyal, but a "steady stream" of negativity about ERHC's management only hurts the SP. when are you finally going to realize that, accept it as a fact and STOP the negative posts?
DeGen
Ps: How short is your position?
Middy,
It appears to me that you are being over critical of ERHC's management. The expiration date in the LOI is just not that important in the PR. The important thing is that THERE IS A LOI!!!
Please stop demeaning ERHC by knit picking the minor details. Let's try to look at the big picture and commend ERHC for what they just signed. Your negativity about such minor details is just UNCALLED for. Please try to look at the positive things from NOW ON. A true LONG shareholder should not be doing what you do. You give everyone the impression that you are short on this stock and REALLY want to SP to go down. If you are truly long on this stock stop the nonsense.
DeGen
I have been out of the loop for several weeks and have not kept up reading the posts. I did see the PR on the Kenya LOI and I am elated. The boost in the SP from the LOI should continue next week and put the SP in the 10 - 12 cent range. However, if we do not see the actual signing of an agreement in 2-3 weeks, there will be a slow drift down because of the UNCERTAINITY and the possibility that the deal has fallen through. Most here are very unhappy with how long it takes ERHC to accomplish anything and expect the worst from past experiences.
Let's all hope ERHC can take the ball with this perspective partnership and get the shareholders a slam dunk, as Dr. J would say.
The company's outlook is now the best it has been since the no oil in the JDZ announcement several years ago. The shareholders now have a bright future if this partnership is sighed. I can hardly wait for the announcement, but I believe we should hear something by the end of May 2013.
DeGen
From a friend:
Although Badog unfortunately was right in the end, I’m not sure if he is totally right.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87487363
“There will be no money coming from SEO. The investment community will not touch this. Assets have no tangible known value.”
Is Badog totally right? I doubt it.
Odobulu said on February 20th, and it sounded pretty convincing (I truly mean that):
Is ERHC being too demanding – expecting too much?
We understand that what we achieved in the JDZ in terms of a cash and carry arrangement may not always be available for a different set of assets. That said, we will not undervalue our shareholders’ assets. We are committed to protecting the value of the Company’s assets, which is another reason the rights offering and other fund raising efforts are important – they will enable us commence exploration by ourselves if we do not get the minimum terms that we think are in the interests of our shareholders for the time being.
This statement from months ago seems to imply that they can always let somebody farm-in, that there IS enough interest in this Kenya block 11A. Otherwhise block 11A is an exeption in Kenya…(?). Not likely.
Odobulu also said: “for the time being”. That seems to have been changed right now. My 50 cents is a farm-in on lesser terms than if we were able to go at it ourselves.
Anybody agree?
Dr. J
May Day, May Day, May Day!!!
I think will will see 5 cents, maybe less.
After this long delay, did anyone expect anything less from ERHC. Par for the course
I can only hope there is a "partner" in the wind very soon.
However, I have this hopeless feeling inside.
May Day, May May Day, May Day
DeGen
My guess is that ERHC will report on the offering results before SEO files with the SEC We will know for sure if SEO participated if the offering is sucessful Also when ERHC files its quarterly reports, those reports indicate the number of shares held by Chrome, so we we know when that report comes out.
DeGen