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And I can add to that:
Egole-1 had earlier been planned to follow shortly thereafter although as Oilnews Kenya previously learnt a success at Tarach-1 would lead to a second well.
12 drillable prospects have been mapped in the Tarach Basin alone. Volumetric calculations and risk analyses have been completed leading to a total mean resource estimate of 662 MMBO.
To date, two basins, Tarach and Anam, in the eastern and western parts of the block respectively, have been identified.
Waiting for results.
If one is to look objective (right?) to the current situation one could say that there is no discovery and no lack of some sort of a discovery.
In either case it would have been a simple conclusion, and also very simple to disclose that conclusion to the public.
From april:
Contingent upon the results of Tarach-1, Cepsa and ERHC might decide to drill a second exploratory well, the Egole-1, to follow shortly thereafter. The Egole-1 prospect is a four-way rollover closure onto a Northwest – Southeast trending fault plain with mean prospective resources of 101 million barrels of oil.
http://www.petroleumafrica.com/cepsa-and-erhc-line-up-spud-prospect-in-kenya/
Is there study and negotiation going on regarding the 'go ahead' for the second well? Did the drilling results encourage them to (maybe) continue? Are they positive about the geology? Did they learn more from this drill, that could translate in a desire to drill the second well? Isn't exploratory drilling a matter of 'hang in there'?
CEPSA and parent do have the cash to do so. If they are of the opinion that the jury is still out in regards to the whole block 11A, it could take some time to bring out that PR.
I see, objectively, no reason for CEPSA (and ERHC) to hold of a PR if a nogo conclusion is final.
OilnewsKenya did mention:
OilNews Kenya cannot however verify whether any hydrocarbons were encountered during the drilling.
Following this new revelation it is unclear whether a planned second exploratory well , the Egole-1 a four-way rollover closure onto a Northwest – Southeast trending fault plain with mean prospective resources of 101 million barrels of oil will continue.
Opus,
So if CEPSA desire to continue in the block is so strong ( which I believe it is as well) they will need to fund ERHE, buy ERHE's Kenya stake or buy the whole company.....
Or watch it fold and pick up pieces....
Southern Man,
You learn a lot about the geology when you poke a hole. I imagine ERHC is negotiating % and planning a second well CEPSA has been waiting decades to get there and wont throw in the towel on the entire block by just poking one hole, no way imo.
Current prices are tough for everyone, thats lowering the negotiating ceiling for ERHC Im sure.
Nothing on Tarach-1:
https://www.facebook.com/kenyaoil
"Tullow's Punishment for its Convertible Bond is Misplaced"
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13633257/1/tullow-s-punishment-for-its-convertible-bond-is-misplaced.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Good article.
The Doc.
JSC,
What is your oil business history exactly?
tia.
9600 shares trades yesterday, 4800 shares sold that is?
4800 times 5.5 cents approx = $264,-
Looks like the market is telling us something.
Despite the fact that Warren B always said not to look at the market for answers, one could conclude that not many are running for the exit currently.
I think that management investing over $300.000,- in ERHC was not a gamble on Tarach-1 alone.
If oil starts to move to the $75,- plus direction again, the landscape will change fundamentally. Like it always has been, cycles.
I'm grey in a moment:
"...just about anyone can read what's happening unless they simply choose to deny it."
"How low will the stock price drop when toxic conversions begin in a few months?"
My best friend once said to me that if he ever would come in the position that he did not like and/or get along with his spouse anymore, he would leave her.
I told him that would not only be a good decision, but a logical one too.
Would ERHC management understand this, would others somewhere on the internet understand this?
I'm in full force grey rock modus as of... now.
There is always help, just reach out.
The Doctor.
This has been discussed over a 100 times:
"Everyone knows the backup plan. Raise more capital (called convertible debt) and/or sell off assets."
Makes sense from Peter & Sylvan's view, right. Invest $300K, and then dilute yourself into oblivion.
What has not been discussed:
http://narcissistsupport.com/going-gray-rock/
Am I talking about ERHC management or ...
There is help, there is. Just reach out and ask for help if you need it.
Just a reminder, our Brothers in Arms...
http://openinsider.com/ERHE
Did they bet on a one horse show, or... is there a backup plan?
Those mofos layed down a pretty hefty sum, for Tarach-1 alone...?
They put in $309.757 together if I'm correct.
The Doc.
Claims or claimed?
"Market cap less than $3 million, zero volume today"
"jcanada was it you who said they may plug the well to protect it so they can return when they are ready to be production."
I thought this was nonsense but:
Part of the process of preparing a well for further drilling, production or abandonment, cementing a well is the procedure of developing and pumping cement into place in a wellbore.
Used for a number of different reasons, cementing protects and seals the wellbore. Most commonly, cementing is used to permanently shut off water penetration into the well. Part of the completion process of a prospective production well, cementing can be used to seal the annulus after a casing string has been run in a wellbore. Additionally, cementing is used to seal a lost circulation zone, or an area where there is a reduction or absence of flow within the well. In directional drilling, cementing is used to plug an existing well, in order to run a directional well from that point.
Saudis lose US clout over oil price war
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/saudis-lost-US-clout-over-oil-price-war.php
Saudi Arabia pays the price for its actions
What Saudi Arabia thought of as a fool proof plan quickly fell on its face. Yes, history will remember Saudi Arabia's actions as very ill-planned indeed, because in the matter of months following did happen:
I can tell you one thing: drilling is complete.
So why no PR yet... hopefully some kind of negotiations, or study what they have exactly?
Gremlin,
"DK said they would update when drilling completed. Surely drilling completed by now."
No, he said:
I anticipate the company will disclose information about Tarach-1 when work on the well is complete.
still nothing on the rumour...
From a week ago:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=123403336
NOTHING on the rumour:
https://www.facebook.com/kenyaoil
I thought Facebook could make note of a rumour, right? Being an informal website...
Ach so...
A lot of money was saved by those who listened to the message of the market, while those who refused lost money long time.
The longer it takes to see a disclosure by ERHC, or a follow up in other media on this rumour, the less likely it is true.
If we haven't seen anything next Sunday, I reckon it turns out to be an unsubstantiated rumour.
Let's all look for follow ups in the (serious) media on this...
And what is interesting,
I only see this copy of that 'news':
http://www.newspic.info/kenya/2016/03/11/tullow-oil-hits-dry-well-in-cheptuket-well-in-block-12a-source/
It's the same website that also mentioned block 11A's dissapoint-rumour.
Do they work together with OilNewsKenya?
Then we have to look at: have they ever been right with a proclaimed 'source' of them?
Guys,
All weekend days off are cancelled:
Back to work.
:p
King,
I am far too certain that the article will turn out to be accurate for my own liking.
OIL AND GAS WELL DRILLING TIME LINE*
http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj-6pGnxLLNAhXRFsAKHWmtB78QFggeMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fenergyindepth.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fohio%2F2013%2F05%2Foil-gas-regulatory-gap-analysis1.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEOeDWe7bekXlnlh3QvtNqoAnW_iQ&sig2=oYrEijqKbWq6ZM_bq7WMOw
Read it back,
http://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjWiuGDw7LNAhWrAsAKHdxUCjsQFgg1MAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sadorit.com%2Fdemo%2Fmeer%2Fimages%2Fpdf%2Fcepsa-update.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHbBtHNKWfgtwe54wVuLs5OKYhVUg&sig2=kpz5pcRJHwcvnvomGf7zfw
Look at the agenda on page 11, 1.5 months for drilling scheduled.
http://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/kenya---well-update-March-2016
That was March 16
That article is from March 11
So five days, in this case...
http://www.oilnewskenya.com/tullow-oil-hits-dry-well-in-cheptuket-well-in-block-12a-source/
If confirmed to be true this would be another follow-up of unlucky wildcats Tullow Oil has
Let's ponder and elaborate a bit, because it's weekend...
First of all. A rumour like this is likely true, or at least based on something, in most cases.
That being said, if I'm correct this site has been wrong before, according to some here? Links please.
But my question for now is mostly: if a rumour like this or even exactly the opposite, surfaces, it is normally followed up by other media if I'm correct. True?
Still nothing, as in 'nothing'.
https://www.google.nl/search?hl=en&tbm=nws&q=oil+in+kenya&oq=oil+in+kenya&gs_l=news-cc.3..43j43i400.50657.54461.0.55048.12.4.0.8.1.0.125.362.3j1.4.0...0.0...1ac.1.YZOYNHcBO5w&gws_rd=cr&ei=60RlV_P_AauV6ASYzp_IAQ#hl=en&tbm=nws&q=block+11a+kenya+cepsa+no+oil
I'm hopeful that this reluctance by other media of publishing this story, has to do with their personal judgement on whether or not this news is true/believable.
I mean, not in the oilbusiness, but elsewhere serious rumours are also published by other media. Rigth?
Also, with this rumour out, don't you think that other media start to do their own 'investigation' regarding this story, and then soon will find some sort of confirmation and publish it?
The longer it takes the more 'sources' come available to confirm such a rumour, imo.
We are three days later now.
Also:
Egole-1 had earlier been planned to follow shortly thereafter although as Oilnews Kenya previously learnt a success at Tarach-1 would lead to a second well.
The news if true casts a dark shadow on upstream activity in Kenya
That is what I thought to, initially... but:
1. It's only Dan, parttime working for ERHC and..
2. Ongoing work on the well, could also include "(...) works are ongoing to plug the well (...)
3. (...) "according to a reliable source".
Comments?
Wouldn't it be fantastic if this rumour turns out not to be true?
Hi Doc,
I did see it and I passed it along to management. I anticipate the company will disclose information about Tarach-1 when work on the well is complete.
Sincerely,
Daniel Keeney, APR
DPK Public Relations
The decision not to drill a second well was made by CEPSA when oil was around $30,- If I'm correct.
It now is almost double that price...
So if true about Tarach, maybe they will continue any time in the near future. It's not that they are not familiar with the concept of exploratory drilling... big company behind CEPSA.
From the 10K some positive info:
1 CEPSA is carrying ERHC’s proportionate share of exploration costs except for the first exploration well where ERHC is expected to contribute 25% of its proportionate (35%) share of costs of the well.
But what about the 'diclosure' gap?
In theory they can withold that information for some time.
Are we sure that the rig wasn't available earlier than what we now know?
Strategy,
It also sounds like since it wasn't a quick turn around on the rig, it was likely NOT a plug and abandoned well.
My dear Curry fans: :p
Six reasons why oil prices reached new 2016 highs
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/six-reasons-why-oil-prices-reached-new-highs.php
The Doctor.
https://translate.google.nl/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=nl&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbiz.tpo.nl%2Fkort-nieuws%2F2016%2F06%2F02%2Folieprijs-in-halfjaar-naar-55-tot-65-dollar%2F&edit-text=
Translation from Dutch, oil within half a year to $65,-
They are obliged to spend at least 30 million, right?
But it is a moot point in relation to Kenya Block 12B, which they let go.
OC,
Like you said they even bailed on the other block to focus on 11A.
The third Joint venture partner, CEPSA, has opted to withdraw from the PSC saying they would have preferred more time to review the data before having to commit to a drill-or-drop decision. As the Company announced on the 10th March 2014, CEPSA farmed into Block 12B, with a commitment to carrying the Company's seismic costs up to a maximum of US$2.6 million and had also agreed to carry Swala through the first exploration well (should they have elected to enter this First Additional Exploration Period of the PSC).
And there is another thing regarding drilling 11A:
If you look at this picture, and realize this exploratory drill costs more than $30.000.000,- one normally would conclude that they are seriously convinced there is a realistic change that oil will be found in commercial quantities...
The more because CEPSA withdrew their, smaller, $ involvement in block 12B because they felt not confident enough about the data known at the time the partners decided to go for it.
It *suggests* that CEPSA is pretty conservative when it comes to exploratory drilling in general, Kenya especially.
"I am saying we would have proven if the first well came in, but it would only be for whatever was found in that well."