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KIK: I'll guess 72.5%
Let's test the old "Wisdom of the Crowd" theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
If I win, please distribute the $100 to the 50 or so contestants. Suppose you might give SSK a few more bucks for being .5% off. Whaddya say???
XNN...
too good to be true?... here's one post from (what appears to be) a reputable person in the industry, Victor:
http://www.ak47.net/forums/topic.html?b=6&f=18&t=219467&page=2
Judge for yourself... I'm interested in other thoughts.
WAG: 5/26/07 at 4:45PM
XNN:
First, thanks so much everyone for your private and public replies to my post #72564... great advice to ponder (and some humor!) in all of them.
Here's a site that might be interesting to those interested in XNN:
http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/archive/index.php/t-164855.html
Seems like the gearheads are into it at least. Hope they keep up the excitement after they actually use it!
Any advice from the board for a young fella?
You all have been an amazing source of investing mentorship over the last 2 years. Thought I'd throw out this scenario:
I make about $3000/month after taxes, am $75000 in school debt after 2 graduate degrees, and owe $16000 on a vehicle. Do not own a home and will not look to buy until things settle down.
My portfolio is up to $19000 after 3 years of investing, (up 30% so far this year thanks to many here).
The school loans are only about a 2% APR, but the vehicle is 7% and I pay about $350/month.
Two options:
1) Fully pay off my truck using $16000 of the investment cash, thereby freeing up another $350/month to invest, or
2) Continue paying $350/month on the vehicle, leaving me with only about $300/month to invest?
I'm leaning towards paying off the vehicle, like KIK's signature says, "He who pays the least makes the most..."
Some here might like this:
1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
8. "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
14. "... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/11/19271933_chart_.html
Rogue:
Who do we believe? Too many opinions and data... my head is spinning!
IMF economist: U.S. not facing recession
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
Thu Apr 5, 11:55 AM ET
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy — despite a painful housing slump — should not fall into recession this year, the International Monetary Fund's top economist said Thursday.
"The message here is reassuring. We do not think the U.S. is heading toward recession," said Simon Johnson.
Worries about the country's economic health have been fanned in recent weeks by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has said he thinks there's a one-in-three chance of a recession this year. However, current Fed chief Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that he doesn't believe the economic expansion, now in its sixth year, is in danger of fizzling out.
The IMF's Johnson said that so far, the problems in the U.S. housing sector haven't spread widely to other parts of the economy, which is an encouraging sign that its damage should be limited.
"So we're not saying it's nothing. We are paying very close attention to it," Johnson said." But we're not seeing it spread beyond residential construction."
Given that, Johnson also said that he expects the U.S. economy — now stuck in a soft patch that started in the spring of last year — to "bounce back quickly."
Despite the slowdown in the U.S. economy, the world's largest, IMF chief Rodrigo de Rato last month predicted global growth for all of this year to clock in at close to 5 percent. Rato said that would be the strongest five-year span for the world economy since the late 1960s.
Projections will be released next week in advance of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank on April 14-15.
So far, the impact of the U.S. slowdown on the rest of the world "has been mild," Johnson said. A 1 percentage point decline in U.S. growth is associated with an average 0.16 percentage point drop in global growth, an IMF report said.
"Our message on the U.S. economy and the global economy is really quite positive," Johnson said. "We absolutely do not downplay risks. That's not our business. We worry a lot about all kinds of things .... in this instance, we feel quite positive."
A sharper-than-expected U.S housing slump could pose a risk to the world's economic performance, an IMF report said.
"If the U.S. sneezes, you should worry about other parts of the world catching a cold. But at the moment other countries are mostly healthy; they also take their vitamins and take other sensible precautions — so the chance of serious colds elsewhere is quite small," Johnson said.
On another topic, Johnson acknowledged that globalization can heighten anxieties of workers and countries that are coping with ever-increasing trade competition and rapid technological change.
But he suggested that people and countries must adapt because globalization will continue to march ahead.
"It is not a good idea for any individual or any government to bury his or her head in the sand and just hope the global economy goes well or goes away," Johnson said. "The global economy is here to stay. It is complex and always changing, sometimes rapidly. We all need to watch it and study it carefully."
HSOA: Wade:
Although I like all the currently known numbers about HSOA, I'm hesitant to return to an investment in the company. It's not the company itself though. I'm hesitant to put my money in ANYTHING with the word "Home" in it's name right now - simply because I believe most other potential investors might look at it the same way.
I mean, even if HSOA is not in the homebuilding sector per se, the perception might still be there. And that's what counts in my opinion.
cl001: Would you assume it's the XTA deal? <EOM>
Greenspan: continuing to backpedal from the "probable" comment: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070315/greenspan.html?.v=2
I thought Rogue would get a kick out of this.
R59: SVLF:
Held SVL for about 18 months and finally sold when the technicals looked like a "sell" and after consulting with this board (thanks Hog!).
Anyway, a PE of 7 is not much different from where it usually was over the last year or so if my memory serves.
The question it seems, then, is: Does listing on the Nasdaq bring a higher PE?
Commentary: Don't currently hold it, but like the turnaround the company's made - afraid to buy right now due to potential downturn in RE.
SVL; Hogfan (or anyone)...
How would you play a stock with such an overbought technical picture, but a move to a larger exchange in the near future (to NASDAQ March 1)... thanks. (still learning; VMC is better than books!)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97595862328
BSM: Just sold for technical reasons only.
* RSI at almost 90.
* up about 25% in a month.
Hope to get a pullback before earnings Feb 30th... otherwise, this may be even riskier to hold through earnings.
Good luck to those holding!
SSK: I fully appreciate it that you inform the board when you buy/sell a stock - along with a little rationale of course (which you do provide).
Just thought I'd throw that comment in...
Speaking of following him, I admit to doing DD on the two stocks KIK traded into on 10/31.
Would it have been sheepish to trade into them on 11/1 ?
Len... after re-reading your post and my post, I can't figure out for sure if my dry humor came out... it's tough to convey sarcasm over email!
Yeah Death and Peeker... how did KIK
discover AVMD.pk, a "leading provider of treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED) and premature ejaculation (PE) treatment in Australia and New Zealand."
I mean, who the hell finds out about a company like that?
HSOA... wade...
Also, they are guiding for 100% year over year growth for the Sept and Dec qtrs. Now, the big question is, will they make their guidence for 2006, and could that kind of growth continue into 2007.
Your bet as you said is that they will continue the nice growth for a few more years at least...
However, as I'm always looking for reasons not to own the stocks I like, what, if any, will the effect on HSOA's business be on the fact that there were really no hurricanes this season?
I mean, I remember investing in HOM last year as a play on the Hurricane reconstructions... if there are no Hurricanes, mold work, etc. do we need a HOM?
(Disclosure... you'll see I just bought HSOA for the PSL4. So I have that going for me, which is nice.)
Hog... Are you going to Freeze PRZ or hold it - on this news?
I should've known that you'd be the one other guy in PSL4 to carry PainCare!
Sell JOB, buy HSOA... thanks.
HSOA... Wade..
What do you make of this Fireline Acquisition business? Is it bad enough to warrant a drop of 11% in a day?
I'm also seeing where something was filed "in error"...
Don't know details yet, but can't look too far into it for now as I'm at work... just wondering what other VMC Board thoughts were...
Thanks...
Zecco... free trades...
Looks good so far but I haven't actually transferred any funds into it yet... tomorrow will probably be the day the public will be able to actually use it.
Here's the site that might help everyone:
http://www.zecco.com/trading/FreeTrading.aspx?tab=CompareUs
My perception is that they're trying to push the "community" idea, with blogs, shared research, etc. At this time it looks a little clustered... and I don't think anyone can beat the ol' VMC board!
Last thought: I can see this being a success just based on their business model - so we'll get to see how it challenges the other online brokers. Perhaps I'll ask Scottrade to give me $3 trades... or I'm moving to Zecco???
Zecco... not up yet as far as I can see <EOM>
YPNT: Mike...
Thanks for the reply... helps... and I think you get that I wasn't really addressing their numbers, growth, etc... just thinking through a little SWOT (without the Strengths or Opportunities!)...
And I agree that the numbers are speaking for themselves. In fact, I think they're saying:
Everybody Wang Chung Tonight... Everybody Have Fun Tonight
YPNT:
I hear you Zen and I have a few similar thoughts.
Among their competitors, yellowpages.com would probably have the vast majority of the current market, I would bet (although I haven't seen any data on that).
With that, I'm wondering how yp.com can ever compete with business search engines that are levered to a paper product, such as yellowpages.com, dexonline, and superpages.
I mean, if I'm a potential buyer of advertising from one of these sites, how are you going to convince me that I'll get more "looks" from yp.com than I will from yellowpages.com? (I doubt the price difference is enough incentive.)
Also it seems like they're going hard after potential advertisers. Are they going after potential USERS of the site at least as much as they are going after the potential ADVERTISERS? It's my opinion that a growing user base will drive potential advertisers to YP... not vice-versa.
But of course what do I know... and I wouldn't have done any thinking on it without being interested of course...
(This post is similar to a couple I've put up on the YPNT board last week... I encourage anyone interested to check it out...)
Buy CAMT with my cash please-
Sea Change:
From small/mid caps to large caps... anyone agree with this guy?
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/1016/132.html?partner=yahoomag
Scottrade not letting me buy YPNT.... telling me I need to call the local branch to buy this one... Anyone else having this problem?
Thanks for the responses Raw- EOM
One more point...
Seems that YP is going hard after potential advertisers (examples: the above flyer, the phone marketing).
Are they going after potential USERS of the site at least as much as they are going after the potential ADVERTISERS? It's my opinion that a growing user base will drive potential advertisers to YP... not vice-versa.
But what do I know... am just a healthcare exec... and of course, the YP management team has probably already thought of all that... Maybe I should ask them?
Competition:
Thanks Mike for the presentation.
On slide 22 they present their major competitors. Among those competitors, yellowpages.com would probably have the bulk of the current market, I would bet (although I haven't seen any data on that).
With that, I'm wondering how yp.com can ever compete with business search engines that are levered to a paper-product, such as yellowpages.com, dexonline, and superpages.
I mean, if I'm a potential buyer of advertising from one of these sites, how are you going to convince me that I'll get more "looks" from yp.com than I will from yellowpages.com? (I doubt the price difference is enough incentive.)
Just some preliminary critical thoughts... if I wasn't interested in the company I wouldn't be asking... and of course, there are many other factors that go into the decision to buy/sell a stock... thanks...
Koz... be careful with the thesis re: aging population and rehabilitation services.
A Therapy cap was recently placed on outpatient services for all Medicare beneficiaries: about $1500 per year for PT and speech therapy. There's another cap for OT but I forget what it is.
In other words, there is actually NO room for growth in therapy services because of the aging population... Medicare has already thought of that and has taken its steps to mitigate costs.
AMHI... so raggs... A company that baaarely slides in as a VMC (earnings requirements), who's revs are stagnant y.o.y., and who's CEO is taking a paycut to "loan more to the company" will go up tomorrow 10% because, what - it went down 10% today?
Usually I do not pipe up at all... however I do not like the desecration of this board by posts with all Pump and no Rationale... all Hat and no Cattle...
And of course I could be wrong. Watch it'll go up 10% tomorrow - at which point I'll insert my size 10 into my mouth.
HSOA...
Are we getting the short squeeze here?
Bobwins... just wondering... I forget what your stance was during the "diversification" discussion here recently, but from your posts and "Gold Bug" expression, it seems you're 100% tied to O&G.
Are you, or are you exaggerating for our amusement?
If you care to know my position, BigPike's (53688) post and some of Len's rationale recently have convinced me that the O&G sector is doomed for awhile anyway... so I've transferred those funds into a sector I know: Healthcare.
Still no RB CAMH board Geoff... I emailed and asked RB last Thursday and no reply as of yet... wonder what's happened...
No more RagingBull board???
TOPT: just glad I do not own fo' real... so sorry team 21 as today's 12% loss will hurt our overall portfolio...
On the other hand the SVL and CAMH earnings today should help us.
Value Micro Ki-zaps:
http://sites.gizoogle.com/index2.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.investorshub.com%2Fboards%2Fboard.asp%3Fbo...
Lord, please grant everyone the ability to open this... thank you.