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Does the difference between you lie in the expectation of BTD ? Depending on how BTD goes, I could agree about timing with you both. You if it goes; Amateur if it doesn’t. Can’t imagine BP NOT making an offer; they ain’t stupid.
That could only happen if BTD is not given and b.p. waits until the last possible moment to make an offer.
I was acquainted with the acronym, but it took a long time going through MILF hits to find Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
Yes, those words were heard here two years ago. But I would not laugh at that suggestion, nor would I say it is dreaming to think there will be a collaboration.
Thanks Tom. I will try that.
Did they tell you to wait 6 trading days ? They did to me
A big gong ? That is what I should be anticipating ? I asked an honest question and All you gave was sarcasm and bad analogies.
What is the reason why we shareholders should be excited about the presentation in June ? No presentation was ever met with a market response before. Yes, the is Phase 3 and have met primary endpoint, but the trial isn’t over yet. Almost over, but they can’t report on many other metrics which are 6 months out from final patient. We are still OTC. And even if the results are great, 75 Million shares are gonna be dumped, so s.p. could fall right back down again like it did after the P.E. announcement.
I want to be excited, but I want to be realistic.
Heavy trading today .... just like the sarcasm.
Shoot, I’m just hoping for $2 by year’s end.
Of course to pay 10% penalty, income and cap gains .,. CYDY will have to sell for ..... $4.
I want the money to pay off the house so I don’t mind paying a 10% penalty. Thanks for the advice though
Variable I guess, with Nationwide
Thanks ahab
Well, my brothers got their checks easily enough. Weeks ago. I’m giving up trying to transfer to an IRA and taking cash.
I thought you had to be a fairly big investor to have access to warrants, and that sure ain’t me !
I’m hoping to cash out of my late fathers annuity . It has been 10 weeks since he died and there’s no end in sight. They won’t even say or know how much is in there ! Dad never knew what the strategy of that annuity was. You could never know how much was in it, and there were so many hidden fees. Nationwide .... So bad in so many ways !
With luck, I may be able to buy more shares before the conference. Estate stuff is soooooo slow.
“What will be presented is not the droids, I mean, data that Wall Street is looking for. “
By that, I mean combo and not mono.
I understand the reason for a measure of excitement, but why such expectations ? What will be presented is not the droids, I mean, data that Wall Street is looking for. Previous conferences have had zero effect. (Even The PE announcement along with dilution gave us nothing. ) Granted, they weren’t at phase 3 then, but I can’t afford to be disappointed. I’m expecting nothing.
*Dr Burger* said that CYDY will get BTD ? I only remember Nader saying that he thought we would get it. Thanks, that’s much better. Although there’s still a tiny chance the FDA would inexplicably disagree.
The combo trial is still hampered by slow enrollment. But now it is now the mono trial’s enrollment. No good word on when that might be completed, and in fact the addition of additional sites means another stretching of timelines has occurred. It’s never over; Zenos paradox.
Yes, there are probably tens of millions of warrant associated shares waiting to be sold. That will strongly suppress sp for a long time (or volume) to come. I strongly doubt that the June presentation will affect share price as the previous scientific conferences have done zero before. However, this is Phase 3 results. There should be some degree of “pop” in sp; this should mean SOME thing to SOME body ! OTOH, This is NOT Mono results, which is the key. I don’t think we will ever see any interim mono results before a buyout.
TD Ameritrade takes 6 business days for me once the check clears my bank. Add to that probably 6 weeks for other things.
It still might take months for paperwork for me to buy more.
Yes. It is sad. It’s a sad, sorry world.
How could Wall Street *possibly* care ? If they can’t make money from them (because of being on otc) then why would they give one moment’s thought about CYDY ?
I’m not saying that sp won’t change, but that volume of shares is a necessity to cut through warrant based “overhanging supply”.
Which is different from a TA overhanging supply.
Honestly, I don’t see the ridiculous valuation changing until a drastically larger pool of investors come into CYDY. That may not happen before we get onto Nasdaq.
I halfway expect the company to issue more shares and warrants after the next announcement. They’re low on cash. Hopefully whatever presumed news is a partnership for GvHD or something. An odd presumption on our part, but how often do we see a half Mill shares bought in the last hour ?
You’re right. The PE buying got out a week in advance of the announcement, so it might be just as long.
Thanks, I didn’t catch that right after the page break. Actually, they only said 2018 for mono enrollment, but it is safer to assume Q4, or even Q1 of 2019.
Thanks for compiling this, Fine. Is the Pro140 mono trial fully enrolled ? The trials website says still enrolling, but completed primary last month. That doesn’t make sense, but was updated last month.
The 0.5 log criteria was not risky but VERY safe to achieve (I thought) based on previous studies. Nader had said that every single patient had at least a 1.0 log reduction so far in previous studies. The average was 1.5 log or a 97% reduction. That was the one thing I DIDN’T worry about.
Ok, so I was looking at Mcap-3 for price to sales, when Mcap-2 was appropriate. Thanks.
How does a $1.6 B in revenue produce a $21 B market cap ? I thought more typical ratios were 1, 1.5, 2 or 4 according to previous board conversations. Your spreadsheet would be 13-1 unless I am mis-reading this. (A distinct possibility. ). If so, why would you expect a higher price to sales for Pro140 than other drugs ?
I love the work you’ve put into this, Fine. But I’m sorry, I would doubt anyone will pay more for CYDY than Gild paid for Pharmasset, which was $11 Bill. They cured a disease for ~98% of patients. Their peak year was around $20 Bill revenue, and may approach $70 Bill total over the drugs lifetime. I think you are projecting $25 Bill for your top end buyout. As much as I would love to agree with that ..... I’ve got to consider that over-exuberance. In particular, your assumption of a 30 P/E ratio. That is certainly not true of Gild.
Someone selling only $1 K of stock, drops the price 5% ? Ponder on this, I shall. Strong with the short side of the Force, someone is.
Ok thanks, Axe. So they are more common than I thought. Aaaand the presence of an NDA, doesn’t necessarily mean a deal is imminent. I try to respect the knowledgeable people (and there’s quite a few) here in their respective areas... but there’s so much I don’t get. Am I really able to do due diligence on this company ? If not I’m in deep do due.
People here have thought the company was under an NDA before. I’m not saying you all are wrong, but I ain’t getting my hopes up again. This is toooo looong of an ordeal.