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It's snowing up here in Seattle too. People here says it never snows either. Normally it's not suppose to go below 40 for the lows in the winter.
1480 at the close. Looks like they want to close at or above 1480 today. Yesterday was a double R3 too. R3 on both DJX and SPX.
DJX P/C 9.8 and SPX 3.66
Foot, OT
This movie/documentary was a little disturbing. It talks about the banks controlling everything since the early 1900s, and how income taxes on wages are unconstitutional. They even interview former people who worked for the IRS and quite and decided not to pay taxes. It was brought into the courts and from what I remember, all the way to the supreme court. The film maker talks about the federal reserves and economy.
America: Freedom to Fascism
http://www.freedomtofascism.com/
Foot, I was looking at that same chart intra-day for most of the day it was at 2. Your $CPC chart is getting close to a bottom as well.
OT: Metal... That's the same reason I became a Network/Security Engineer. (Well also because I like it and wanted to do C.S. in college.) I get paid 6 figures as well with a LOL B.S. Degree in Neurobiology and Physiology. (My dad and mom wanted everyone in the family to be a doctor.) I decided I didn't want to go to school for another 4 more years and then another 3-7+ years in residency earning piddly with huge loans. My sister who is a pediatrician said that she can't go back to the Wash D.C. area. On average Pediatricians only earn $100K in that area since there's too many. So she said moving to Mid-West or to the South she can get about $150K-$175K. But I think after she comes back from her tour in Iraq she's going to move to the Pacific NW where I just recently moved.
Now if you're a cardiologist like my little sister is thinking of doing that's typically $300-400k/year or a nephrologist (kidney) about - $250K-300k. Surgeons obviously more depending on whether it's General Surgery or a sub-speciality. It's like our field the more specialized you are the more you make vs. just being a general network admin.
I still can't believe they want her to do ER/Trauma for adults when she only had a 3 month shift/class in residency 4 years ago on it. The army said they will give her a 3 month crash course on ER Medicine (Even though when you specialize in Internal Med/ER medicine it requires a 3 year residency program.) She said she knows less than a combat or trauma medic in terms of stabilizing an adult patient.
I hope crude goes back down. Although I'm not sure that necessarily helps the refiners. I thought refiners are pretty much maxed out on output running 24/7 and that was also part of the reason why refineries have been breaking down. Gas is $3.39 in downtown Seattle. Good thing I don't drive much anymore only on long trips out on the weekend. I live in the city so I walk everywhere. 1 tank of gas usually lasts me 2-3 weeks. Hoping for home prices to drop here so I can move out. I'm not a city person. I need a yard and so does my dog.
OT - Foot
Yeah I'd have to agree with the malpractice stuff. My roommate's wife from college ended up moving to VA cause there's a cap in Malpractice insurance so it's cheaper. I think when I last talked to them about it 3 years ago, the malprac. ins was only 50K for an OBGYN as oppose to $200K in MD since there's no caps in maryland. Is that insane or what? She said that OBGYN are a dying breed cause the malpractice is so high that you need to deliver 20 babies to break even. So most Doctors only practice GYN.
Both my sisters took the military scholarship so it paid for their $200K med school bill and it pays for their malpractice insurance. One just got deployed to Iraq after she finished her residency a year ago.
People don't realize that doctors don't necessarily make a lot of money. Think about getting out of school and if you're just a pediatrician or pcp you only make about $100K-$175K. So with undergrad and grad at a private university you're looking at $200-300K out of school for loans and then you have to pay like $20K in malpractice insurance.
Foot, I think we'll start heading up due to seasonality, Thanksgiving, 401K, etc. But this looks kinda scary. May be a
cliff dive after the new year?
LOL - The name of the file is called: "That sinking feeling chart"
OT: Wow... their rates have really gone up since I last looked. (Although may be I shouldn't be surprised.) My insurance rose 2 months ago. My company jacked it from $70/month to now $150. Copay from $15 to now $25.
BTW - You do have some valid points.
I'd like to disagree too. I've gotten goldenrule insurance twice in the past 10 years during times of hardship. Getting laid off after the tech bubble burst or in between jobs before my insurance kicks in. It's for small businesses, self-employed people or people who have no insurance. It's not bad. Co-pay being $20-30 depending on what you get and as little as $50/month (80/20) to $110/month depending on how much you want to pay for co-pay. I went to the ER after blowing out my knee getting x-rays, etc after trail running for a few miles and limping back home 4 years ago and all I paid was $50 for the ER visit and they covered everything else, pain killers, x-rays, follow up doctors visits ($20 copay), etc. (edited) I've even gotten allergy serum (which isn't cheap), and allergy shots as well as going to an allergist during the spring with a co-pay of $20 each visit.
People make excuses all the time instead of looking around/researching and finding what they need.
Foot take a look at the BKX to SPX relationship and NDX to SPX relationship between 1998-2000 and 2000 to 2002 vs current time now.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=8398991
Quite interesing. You may be right. Banks look way oversold and for the past week I have been poking around looking for bargains. (Haven't bought yet but thinking about it.)
So I can't believe that Citibank is now $32/share. Down from $57 , it's 52 week high. I read the interview with the Prince (I think Saudi) anyhow he's pissed that the CEO said the $6 Billion write off was it and the Saudi prince asked the CEO is that all a couple times and the CEO said that's it. Anyhow you know what happened 3 weeks later which is 2 days ago. Citibank announced 8-11 billion more in write-offs. The Saudi Prince said the CEO had to go because there's no credibility even though the CEO did not want to resign. The Saudi Prince said: "How can say one thing and then 3 weeks later announce something completely different?" Anyhow I think it's insane that Citibank is trading at a P/E of 7 while Amazon is at $83 and a P/E of 96 according to Yahoo.
Gleno,
I don't see Monday as a day the market will close. May be bonds?
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/schedule.stm
NASDAQ Holiday Trading Schedule
2007 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed.
January 1 - New Year's Day
January 15 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday
February 19 - Presidents' Day
April 6 - Good Friday
May 28 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 3 - Labor Day
November 22 - Thanksgiving Day
December 25 - Christmas Day
Two, NAMO at -55. I think you may be right Nasdaq is down from it's high about 6.8%. (High 2861.5 right now we're at 2665). So I think we're getting close. I may test the waters today by adding to my butchered long position. I put in a sell order on Tuesday while we were up and missed by .10. (I guess I was too greedy.) Now I'm paying the piper.
Real Time NAMO - Ok now it's going further down which makes more sense... Before it was at 40.
We may be heading for that -60 to -70 NAMO reading again which was also the August low. Doubt we'll get there today but may be tomorrow. Then I may have to start looking into possible longs.
TRINQ Real Time = 3.37
NAMO (2007-11-08) Real Time = -49.28
NAMO (2007-11-07) Prev Close = -46.89
NDX 2108 is that the only unfilled gap? (Looks like their trying to fill that gap today.) I'm looking further back and I don't see anymore. May be I am blind.
Realtime $NAMO - Foot do you know of any other sites that gives real-time NAMO? You would think it'd be below 50 today given that we dropped 75 pts on the COMP and another 36 right now.
But it's actually up...
TRINQ Real Time = 2.40
NAMO (2007-11-08) Real Time = -40.82
NAMO (2007-11-07) Prev Close = -46.89
Gleno, that's Kingcambo's buy zone also for a 2-3day swing up.
Foot are you talking about this??
Anyhow it's close to an R3 but is that close enough for gov. work? P/C = 2.87
CME S&P 500 CALL 16,580
CME S&P 500 PUT 47,627
Nevermind I guess this answers my question: (I don't know where Scam gets his sources but they are good.)
"Since 1925, there have been 20 cases where the Fed cut interest rates at least one time in a campaign.
In those 20 cases, the S&P 500 climbed an average 3.40% one month after the first interest rate cut, 8.02% three months after, 13.73% six months after, 12.68% nine months after, and 15.85% twelve months after."
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=8380170&usernm=scamman
(Edited)And this answers it too with the seasonality:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=8380128
Interesting... What are you thoughts on the other indexes? Retest of old highs on SPX, DJX, MID, RUT and then a bit down/consolidate. Then back up for the rest of the year due to seasonality?
Fish,
I went back to review Scam's post on clearstation and have actual postmarked it so I don't have to go back again. (Actually I'll probably end up saving it on my computer directly.)
Last Fed meet on September 18, I took a short position but I think I was a bit early. Like around 3 PM. I was banking on the markets going down the next day after the up/down/up move. Well, the next day it went down a little consolidated and then rebounded up. I decided to sell and I ended up with a 1.5K loss. You definitely have to be quick trading those patterns. I for one am not that good to trade that quickly. I've also noticed it's really hard to get your orders in right after the 2:15 announcement. (Well at least last time I tried. I remember QLD gapping violently by +4 and I couldn't even get my order in so that's when I though I should try shorting towards the end of the markets for the down day the following day.) Good luck.
"The Fed-Day Pattern"
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7032318&usernm=scamman
"The Power of Patterns: The Fed-Day After"
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=6748035&usernm=scamman
Man... you gotta love that up/down/up fed move. I've been holding MVVs since the drop on 10/19. Bought in sometime around 2 PM that friday and the market was still moving down. (Sure was scared since I bought like 600 shares of MVV). Anyhow, I sold 1/2 today at 92.75 and now I'm kicking myself. It's at $94 and it'll probably be on it's way to testing recent highs, 97.5.
Moral of the story: Never bet against Big Ben.
Foot with all this stuff going on this feels like an OE week even though it isn't. LOL...
About Scamman's R3s. Anyhow I looked at NDX and there's no R3 there... Hopefully the selloff is after the fed announcement on Wednesday. That would go perfect with what I've been thinking.
NDX: (msg edited on the NDX I thought there was an R3 but that was a 9 and not a 0.) Hehe... I need more sleep.
Call Put Total
2,905 6,349 9,254
SPX R3:
Call Put Total
103,805 411,190 514,995
No R3 for DJX although interesting they are loading up on the DJX Calls.
Call Put Total
18,525 13,603 32,128
From Scamman (not per se directed at you foot, since your the resident guru, but a refresher for everyone about R3).
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=3235333
"My Rule of Three stipulates that when the put-call ratio on any of the key indexes - DJX, SPX and NDX - is 3 or higher on a closing basis, there will be a sell-off within 3 sessions."
Lightening up... I may actually start to lighten up as a precaution to the fed speak on Wednesday.
Foot... LBR Measured Moves, missed it this morning (PST) was in all sorts of meetings.
Two,
Yes, the more put to call the greater the event. R3 typically represents a down market within 1-3 days. They are super tough to trade unless you are good and fast. The last R3 was a non-event unless you're a day-trader on the 1min chart. Gap up in the morning of 10/22 then followed by down, it filled the gap on all major indexes to the downside and by the afternoon and end of the day all indexes closed up/green.
I tried trading the up/down/up rule this past August but it's just so hard. You need like 3 computers and fingers at the trigger. The moves are fast and I was stuck holding a short position that didn't pan out well. Took a $1.5K loss on that because I thought the next day we'd go down because the rule states that if it's up/down/up the next day will trade in the opposite of the close which should've been down. Well the next day all it did was consolidate and so I closed the position with a loss.
Oman,
I thought trid would pop a little more than +.50. Oh well. I got out 30 mins ago for about +.40. I'll keep it on the radar though just to see what happens in the next few weeks to a month.
Decided to get out of trid for +.40 today. I'll keep it on the radar though just in case.
Heh... Well talk about something else that's funny. Is this a gag or what?
http://www.condofiasco.com/2007/10/01/own-a-piece-of-miami/
"Own a piece of Miami for $35.50
So here it is. Believe it or not I am going to try to sell my condo one link at a time."
denmo,
If that August low is an inverse H+S at 1375 and the neckline at around 1490ish, then the current down was a retest of the neckline. If this inverse H+S has legs off the current re-test of the neckline, we'll be seeing 1615ish. (+125 points off the 1490 neckline.)
I assume you're still 100% long from early August? I was only about 30% long from August (and some day trades here and there), but have recently went in to about 70% long on 10/19 after that huge 2.5-3% drop on all indexes. That was a scary time to go long even though everything in body told me not to. But after a week the charts are looking a lot better, meaning more up. Hopefully the inverse H+S plays out.
I hear you foot. Thanks for the advice. I only threw in like 400 shares. Not a big deal. Looks like a good amt. of support between 6-7 range. I'm hoping for a $1-2 pop then I'm out. If not getting out at $6.25.
I was telling omandan that I just can't believe all the people crying on the yahoo trid msg board. They backed the truck up at $13-14 and 1 guy said he has to now declare bankruptcy cause he took 70K out in Credit cards. That's just plain crazy. I would never throw down $100K on 1 stock. What happened to diversification? Oil hear, gold there, investment properties, foreign funds, CDs, some emergency cash and some play money in the U.S. markets? Is diversification dead or are people just plain stupid? I'm not sure if I feel sorry for them losing that much money or just sorry because of their lack of intelligence and that they can't help themselves.
Thanks... Well like I said I didn't back up the whole truck. People are crazy. I was reading the yahoo msg boards and this guy loss 70K on margin with Credit cards on this. He's crying that now he's gonna have to declare bankruptcy. How can any rational person freaking do that? Looking for it to pop to $8-9 range then I'm out. How can you put all your money on 1 stock like that? Might as well play Russian roulette with $70K on black or something.
Foot did you see TRID get whacked today? I think it's one of the top losers on the nasdaq. Analysts downgraded from buy to neutral cause earnings growth is going to flat for the next few quarters. What's funny is the company has no debt, lots of cash ($200million), P/E of 15 before the whack now fwd p/e of 5. But yet companies like Amazon trades for 60x earnings. You gotta love it. I picked up some today at 7 for some fun. Not too many shares just a 400 out of one of my tiny trading accts I don't really use often.
Down from 41.4% today from 12.20 to 7.15.
On the 2nd list of top % losers today. 35 million shares exchanged hands. Float is 54million.
http://finance.yahoo.com/losers?e=o
Gleno are you long or short going into the FOMC meet/EoM/401K ramp?
Just curious... I think after 10/31 we'll head down until we start getting close to the week going into Turkey day.
OT: Pacific NW RE
Thanks. That's what I was thinking. I looked at redfin. Great concept by the way. You get 2.5% buyers commission rebate put back in when you buy a house. They (www.redfin.com) take .5% buyers commission. IT's only in Seattle, San Fran, Wash DC and few big cities. But it's a good concept cause it'll pay for your closing costs.
Anyhow with redfin I have been monitoring new builds right now and prices are stagnant or have been reduced. Especially ones sitting for 45+ days. May be during the rainy season with less people going to look at homes they will slash even more. But the avg. home here is small and expensive and over 100years old. 2br/1 to 1.5baths 900-1000sqft for $500K! WTF? You also have to consider old homes with old plumbing and electrical wiring and lead paint issues. So I started looking at new build town homes at 1500-1800 sq ft for $400-475K with stainless steel appliances, solid wood floors the works and 3br and 2.5 to 3 baths. Land in seattle is a premium it seems. People are basically building on top of each other with all new single family homes being only 3-4 ft from each other. I'm hoping for a slump so I can get in at some point even though that's a horrible thing to say with people being forced out of homes and all.
OT Foot:
Hey... I'm only a whacko cause I like climbing/mountaineering. That doesn't mean I like all of the left coast ideas. I'm a conservative transplant. Some of the laws that are weird are: not allowing stores to carry 40s, schlitz, mickies, cheap beer, etc cause homeless people will be able to buy it (not that I drink cheap beer) or not allowing restaurants to get a liquor/beer license unless they can make 50% of their sales in food. The one that gets me is the amount of cops downtown giving tickets for jay walking. You get a $200 fine if you walk across the street and there's no cars and you're on the crosswalk but the little man is red and not white. What the heck am I that stupid that I can't make a decision on when to cross the street? In MD it's not considered jay walking unless you don't use the crosswalk. It can be a green light and if you walk on the crosswalk you have the right of way.
I guess that's what happens when you have low crime. People policing other people cause they have nothing better to do. It's the lack of freedom of choice that bugs me. For as left coast as people are out here they are basically tight wads in disguise. How can you tell someone how to run their own business? ie- you have to sale 50% food in order to sale beer/alcohol?
Heh... I have a friend who lives in Portland and he is thinking of buying but is worried the prices will collapse. I guess you know the pacific NW much better since you've been living here for quite a while. What do you think? Wait til next year or wait for a few years? hehe...
RE here in Seattle is just plain nuts. I think it's one of the few cities in the US that is not having housing issues. My wife and I have been looking around. We decided on an apartment downtown for now. It's just too expensive to buy a house and it hasn't dropped in price. I talked to all the locals and they say prices are still going up although not 25-30% a year like the past few years but it's still 5% this year and the local real estate folks we've talked to thinks it's going to rebound by next year. Seattle apparently is expecting another 1/2 million to a million transplants in 3-5 years. Have you heard much about the RE here? May be the agents here are blowing smoke up my butt so they can land a sale by making me think it's not going to go down at all around here.