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Which post was it in that I misused the pronoun verses the contraction 3 times?
As far as investments go, the short term has a strange way of becoming the long term. Risk is all in the eye of the beholder, personally I can't think of a more risky investment than INTC right now. But then that's what makes a market. good luck.
Well we were talking about the 06 time period and Longhorn is due in 07, last I heard. From now on there will be less and less reason to buy 32 bits. As for INTC's offerings I'll have something to say when we start seeing some 64-bit comparisons. Right now I'm assuming that INTC's offerings are just Prescotts with 64 bit extensions and that means a 32 bit POS with 64 bit extensions is still a POS. Anyway, right now I'm reserving judgement.
Last time I looked this was an AMD board, but if one were to look at the posts one would swear this was an INTC board.
I'm well aware of the difference in your and you're but I don't always proof read everything. Read for content.
What you INTC ites totally miss is that AMD64 is AMD's future. And that future is what the market is buying. Why anyone would be holding INTC stock at a time when AMD has such a clear and present advantage in almost everything is way beyond me. You guys must like losing money.
That was my reaction too, just a Ed rehash.
Well the market evidently likes AMD's prospects. If it's not 64bits the market is buying, given flash's problems, I sure would like to know just what it is that all those AMD newbees are buying. Investors are voting with their dollars right now and it's pretty obvious that no one is buying the 32-bit INTC line. It's as if the market is saying INTC is so passe.
Well I sure hope INTC thinks like you do. AMD keeps doubling sales of AMD64 every quarter and there's no market.
Definitely will be way past 06 before there's a market for 64 bit processors that cost the same as 32 bit ones. Of course, just because 32 bit aps run faster on 64 bit machines won't have anything to do with it.
Your so right, no market for 64 bit in sight. Why would anyone want to future proof their purchase at no additional cost. Again, I'm sure your right and all those people buying 32 bit machines will be overjoyed at the though of buying a 64 bit machine as 64 bit Os's become the standard. There's no doubt that 32 bit machine will handle Longhorn just fine.
Again your right and a 64 bit machine would only be something a gamer would be interested in. All those people buying media machines would undoubtedly never want a 64 bit processor, it's such fun waiting for things to happen on a 32 bit machine.
It's a very interesting way you have of looking at things.
Wow, that's quite a system for $400. When was this? I take it they had all the stuff there and you just coughed up the cash? How long did it take to put the thing together? Is there somewhere that you can get all the stuff as a package?
Despite my non-tech status I have put a few PCs together. As a matter of fact I've got an extra mid-tower case with a 400+watt power supply.
What parts went into your Media Center? Did you use MSFT's software, and if so how did you get it? Thanks.
IBM's cell facility in Austin
http://www.research.ibm.com/about/arl.shtml
From Yahoo
Me...
Clearly IBM has bigger plans. I hope AMD is partnering with someone big in home entertainment.
IBM cell
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041129/japan_computer_chip_6.html
from Yahoo
Anandtech P4 vs Athlon
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2275&p=13
from Saxman. Sorry if already posted while I was gone.
I'll leave it to you and others better versed in the latest compiler intricacies to say what is best. From my high level I've just noticed that there is more support than I ever remember. Nice not to have to rely on INTC, especially given that AMD specific optimizations will probably help a lot.
Besides GCC isn't there PGI also? Found this article, may be dated.
http://www.digit-life.com/articles2/insidespeccpu/insidespeccpu2000-opteron2.html
That's the only thing that has kept me from updating to A64, the lack of a MSFT operating system. I wonder how many other people there are out there like me? I do know about the beta version.
Remember I'm not a tech, so for me, off-loading all my stuff from one PC to another and getting everything to work is just a pain in the butt. Everytime I go through an upgrade something doesn't work and I have to either figure out why or come up with another solution. I know some view this as a challenge, but for me it usually resembles hell.
I think Rollins is right, and both AMD and INTC will benefit. It's too bad AMD won't be able to supply more of the market as they will probably have the preferred processor. Lots of buyers will have to settle for a "blue man" PC that won't perform as well as an A64.
Personally, given the stability that has been reported about the beta version I think MSFT could have released it earlier, but I suspect there were a few INTC/MSFT conversations that never made the Inquirer. Lack of Divers sounded plausible a year or so ago, but hasn't made much sense for some time. Having said that, I fully expect MSFT to release a 64-vit Windows in H105 whether INTC is ready or not. I imagine INTC (Itanium) has been something of a pain in the ass for Bill.
Good point. AMD being in charge of X86-64 means that AMD has optimized the extensions to work best with AMD designs(hopefully). Further, compiler support for AMD64 seems much better than it ever has been for any other AMD product. A few more reasons that AMD's 64 bit solution should be better than INTC's, at least for a few iterations.
Well I see the INTC fudsters have been up to their usual nonsense while I was gone. The reason 64 bit will reign supreme besides its' future proofing is that it will be free. By the end of next year few non-64 bit PCs will be produced. 32 bit processors will be around for a long time, but only in things where size and energy usage are more important than.
INTC took a POS P4 and added 64 bit extensions and called it Nocona. A POS with 64 bit extensions is still a POS, even INTC said so. This is typical INTC fud; taking a pig's ear and calling it a silk purse doesn't change things.
I'm really curious by the lack of reviews comparing INTC's offerings against AMD's in 64-bit mode. It's not like there aren't O/Ss or applications out there. Very strange.
Any way, I can hardly wait for the inevitable comparisons, should be enlightening reading.
Yes, the calculations were somewhat seat of the pants, but it does show that AMD is definitely limited as to how much market share it can take next year.
Yes it does seem inevitable that AMD should be making a lot more money, which is probably why Hector is doing the housekeeping things now. I don't think Hector said how much AMD growth in 05 would exceed the 10% industry, but 12 or 13% growth seems reasonable.
I'm with you. I posted a big spiel about why I thought AMD would bring up fab36 on 90nm about 6 months ago. Given the capacity bind I think is going to happen AMD would be crazy to go with anything that might not get units out the door immediately. Especially considering that most, if not all, the equipment will be backwardly compatible to 90nm.
There was some speculation that AMD had put the pedal to the metal on fab36. Of all the solutions being bounced around I like that one best. I would love to see production in fab36 started in q3 for sale in q405 with Chartered coming online in 06. At that point capacity stops being an issue. I'm not sure if that leaves enough time to get things going though. 90nm may be old hat by then but 300mm will be new, and then there's all the bugs associated with a new building.
Yes, but not too good for long term relationships. The money should salve stockholders.
Yes, I know, but I've been waiting for IBM to announce something going on 2 years now. The longer we go without an announcement the less likelihood there is that IBM will be able to fill the gap. The Charted announcement seemed to kill the IBM idea, at least to me, and Chartered won't be able to supply anything until probably h106 at the earliest.
AMD has got itself into sort of a bind, but that doesn't mean they won't be making lots of money. We'll have to see what happens but by q2 (weakest quarter) we might start to see some indications of shortages, but probably q3 with the back to school stuff.
If Hector is correct and the market grows 10% next year, just to maintain market share AMD will need to add about 800k processors per quarter (simple linear math). Now if you assume a market of about 200M processors per year and AMD adds a rather modest 2% market share per quarter for the year then AMD needs to add another 1M units in q1. Keeping things mathematically simple then AMD needs to add another million in sales in q2 etc., etc. This linear way of looking at things overstates initial demand and understates the demand in the later quarters when actual demand is more. Not taking compounding into account also has an effect. But, bottom line, by q4 AMD has maxed out fab30s capacity at 12.5M units per quarter. Which means because of scheduling problems and other problems by q3 AMD is out of gas.
This is pretty much where I'm coming from. The INTC tittering Nabobs of negativism will undoubtedly say it’s impossible for AMD to take 2% market share per quarter, and maybe their right, we'll have to see. AMD could probably handle 1% market share growth per quarter out of fab30 alone, but I expect much more demand. Of course AMD could stock pile now, but it looks like 90nm capacity has been scheduled to increase gradually so that may not be a factor.
Yes, I do too, but it still won't be able to keep up with demand by q3 or q4 next year. I don't want to sound like Niceguy, but with the low-power laptops coming online and Opterons taking off, not to mention desktop A64's and MSFT 64 bit OS coming, next year should be the year of AMD64.
Then there's the new Cray products, the new Sun products, and what about DELL? HP has been the biggest Opteron seller and now with the Itanium handwriting on the wall you can bet that they will do everything they can to keep Dell from getting Opterons.
Too many things are falling into place, I'm sticking to my prediction of AMD processor shortages in q3 or q4 of 05.
Nocona POS article:
Kind of dated, an oldie but goodie.
http://infoworld.com/article/04/08/02/31OPcurve_1.html
Nocono was just another INTC knee-jerk reaction to a superior AMD product. Another in a growing line of POS products INTC is trying to push through marketing. I wonder just how many people that have purchased a Nocono really understand its limitations? How happy do you think they will be with "INTC Inside" when they find out the truth?
The way I look at it AMD is going to be walking a tight-rope next year trying to maximize profitability while trying to cover all markets and introducing new products (particularly mobile). This in a background where the market is demanding more and more AMD product and AMD has fixed capacity at 90nm. I'm really worried that the MSFT 64b OS release will create a Tsunami of demand than AMD can't meet. AMD seems to be having trouble meeting A64 demand in some markets already.
Oh well, I guess I'll just have to solace myself with AMD's obscene profits next year.
This is NTB, but what about heat, isn't that quite a problem with high end GPU's? 2 GPU's can run slower since they don't have as many lines to produce. I'm sure that since both ATI and NVidia are fabless they are using processes not as advanced as AMD's. But undoubtedly it's only a matter of time before we see dual GPUs.
That's what I think too. Saw your Itanium table on SI. I think you've posted it before, but it says reams about the server market for ITANIUM/OPTERON. I would love to see the blanks filled in. Maybe someday?
Not much doubt about who is winning the server war, and the Opterons are just starting to take off. Imagine what will happen when MSFT has a 64/32 bit OS on the market.
One kind of gets the feeling that there was an 8.0 eqrthquake off shore and the tsunami is fast approaching.
I guess the real question is whether AMD will be making anything but 64bit chips by q3 of next year? AMD shuld have some very difficult decisions concerning what markets to support by late next year.
Nice article, little things say a lot:
Them...
Seyer's comments come a week ahead of a closely watched fourth-quarter financial update from Intel Corp., the world's largest chip maker and perennial rival to AMD.
Me...
Notice that they said INTC is a perennial rival to AMD, and not the other way around. Says volumes about shifting attitudes. A couple of years ago AMD would have always been identified as a 2nd source for INTC or perenial me too to INTC. The sense of growing equality/superiority is very thick.
My hope is that there is enough support within INTC for Itanium that it dies a very long and painfull death. Unfortunately, I suspect that INTC has made the decision to EOL the beast, but in order to keep from losing too much face it will continue lip support for a long time while at the same time not doing any meaningfull new development other than what is currently in the queue.
Of course that means those resources are now freed up to work on EM64T which isn't so hot from an AMD point of view. Realistically though, the damage has been done and the best INTC can try to do is recover as quickly as possible. Something that could take quite a while.
From Saxman
http://www.computerweekly.com/articles/article.asp?liArticleID=135249&liArticleTypeID=1&liCa...
Speaking at last week's IT Forum in Copenhagen, the Microsoft chairman said the transition would be smooth thanks to binary compatibility between the two processor architectures.
"This will provide the ability to mix 32-bit and 64-bit [with] a very simple recompilation for any application you might want to run, using the full 64-bit address base," said Gates.
With 64-bit Windows, "even the most expensive mainframe will not deliver the performance that industry-standard hardware running Windows will deliver," he added.
Me...
Particularly like the last paragraph the most. The mainframe is on the endangered species list.
From SI, about analysts preference for AMD,TXN over INTC.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
Them...
Last Tuesday Wedbush Morgan cut its recommendation on the shares to "hold" from "buy" and also dropped its 12-month price target to $22 from $25. Unlike CSFB, which maintained earnings outlook, Wedbush cut its 2005 earnings per share forecast to $1.15 from $1.25.
"It appears that Advanced Micro Devices will be able to gain share in the second half of calendar year 2005, including with the previously 100 percent Intel customer Dell Computer for the first time," analyst David Wu told clients.
Wu said that AMD in 2006 would have the capacity to accommodate the volume requirements of the top PC original equipment manufacturers, meaning it could back design wins in 2005.
"This is the first time AMD has the capacity to seriously erode Intel's 80 percent-plus market share," Wu said.
Me...
Nice to see the design wins, but AMD is going to need the capacity before 06. Product demand is only going to get stronger as 05 progresses. I guess we'll have to wait for the fourth leg. Leg 1 being the k6, leg 2 the K7 and fab30, leg 3 the K8, and leg 4 will be the processor capacity problem resolution. INTC will still have the hyped "INTC inside" image, the money, and the marketing but the playing field should be a lot flatter with the capacity card taken out of the picture.
Yes, My wife was saying the same thing this morning. EOM
Seems that way. EOM
I wonder how much of the action this morning has to do with the INTC downgrade? Anyone got a source?
Personally, I expect AMD to just go where the SOXX goes for awhile. And while I think AMD will do well this quarter I don't expect a blow out. It still looks like Hector has some deferred maintenance to perform, including the extra charges for the CVB's redemption.
What makes AMD exciting is the possibilities that could come out of nowhere. Anyway, all the publicity AMD has been getting is definitely getting the market involved in the stock.
I'm with you, being out of AMD seems more risky than being in right now. I'm playing with some of my shares, but just trying to pick up $.25 or $.50 here or there. Mainly something to do to keep things interesting while the paint dries.
Here's a good post which should be very good for AMD given its' entry level posturing.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=581&e=3&u=/nm/20041123/tc_nm/tech_spendi...
Here's the NYSE short release dates:
http://www.nysedata.com/info/productDetail.asp?dpbid=7&dptid=7&page=5
AMD has been following the SOXX for the past 5 days
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SOXX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=amd,INTC
In contrast to the last 3 months when it was leading it
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SOXX&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=amd,INTC
What I'm worried about is that at the present prices the q4 EPS won't match all these new investors expectations. It looks like the funds have been selling and the little guys have been buying which could lead to volatility.
What really has me worried though is that AMD might say something like
"Well we just bought this new 10 ton hydraulic press and we intend to test it repeatedly on INTC's balls in 05".
That is what has me really terrified.
As to what might cause such a forecast. Well, suppose DELL finally comes on or SUN systems take off, or Mirrored bit starts to take off, or mobile processors start showing up in a lot more products, or the demand for 3G phones is more than expected.
More likely, not one thing, but a few things in both the flash and processor world start taking off. With AMD's fixed cost structure it wouldn't take much more in volume to create much more in profits. Just having 90nm online should generate a lot more processor revenue and the huge increase in JV3 capacity that is going to happen in 05 isn't because no one wants AMD's flash.
Short term AMD does look pricey and I've started playing it again, but this is strictly short term. To me, long term, the risk of being out of the stock is much more than being in it, for the time being.
Of course all this falling $ stuff, the BOP issues, and the governments deficit are all things that could affect the economy. The good news is that the preponderance of AMD's sales are outside the U.S. which is probably in for a period of economic adjustment as the $ continues to lose its' status as the worlds preferred hard currency.
I do expect the Yuan to be revalued against a basket of currencies largely because the advantages of having it tied to the $ have mostly evaporated. The main reason is that oil is going to continue to get more expensive in $ terms and the Chinese are big and getting bigger, importers of oil.
Inflation is going to get worse, something the Fed realizes and is starting to take measures to combat. Things are going to get tougher in the U.S. for awhile while we get used to a less ebullient life style, but I wouldn't be betting that foreign countries will be withdrawing their investments in Treasury bills any time soon, they don't want to kill the golden goose. Of course if the $ drops off a cliff then a panic could happen, but that would be bad for everyone.
Over all I expect the administration to continue lying about the desire for a strong $ while continuing to cut the legs out from under it. We've probably got another 20 to 30% to go and these things usually over shoot so who knows how far down is.
I expect real estate to be one of the first and largest casualties of the adjustment. But then I’ve felt that real estate was over valued for at least the last 4 years. With real estate having become the investment of choice, it is ripe for a 2k type of adjustment as interest rates start to rise.
I've read the InfiniPath/Pathscale/Iwill article a couple of more times. Remember this is NTB(non-technical Bob), but It sounds like the HTX solution that's going to be available in q205 should revolutionize the HPC market. This low-cost solution should allow HPC processing to extend to many more areas. Perhaps commodity super clusters are near at hand?
Since this solution is mainly applicable to complex repetitive problems with huge amounts of data I'm not sure how well this would work for general business applications. As usual software is way behind hardware, particularly compilers, but for problems that can be broken down into chunks and where the movement of data is a limiting factor this seems to be a very viable low-cost solution.
It will be interesting to see how many of the top 100 fastest arrays have this technology in it in a year or 2.
Shorts getting cold feet? Or maybe the converts? Down to 51.5M short which must have helped the rally we just went through.
http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/sitable.pdf
from Yahoo
Wow, I'm impressed. If this works it should ignite a lot of fires.
Yes, looks like Nvidia is expecting something that isn't there. If platforms are the way INTC is going to go, by definition, that means less for other companies. Still, it could be a good short term deal for Nvidia?
I was wondering more about whether INTC would change the structure of the company to match the platforms. There seems to be enough differentiation of platforms that at some point in the production cycle it would make sense to have groups specializing in a particular platform.
If I buy a notebook and something doesn't work I return it to Best Buy/Frey's and let them worry about it. To me this isn't a platform yet, but it is a first stab. The big advantage I see in platforms is the reduced cost as the cookie cutter takes over. Getting a good integrated design and cranking them out with INTC's marketing might is what platforms are about.
It's very unlikely that AMD will go this route any time soon, probably prefering to market the differences and the ability to configure the system in more ways.
Kind of the difference between Gallo, which does make some very good wines, and a boutique winery. AMD is very much still the mom/pop of the business, but doing very well by expanding into new markets and providing better product/TCO in some areas.
I think what I object to is that the wireless feature is being sold as being integrated when in fact it isn't anything of the kind. There are other things about centrino that are better than the "integrated wireless" feature, like the low power requirements and longer battery life. When I hear things like this it just makes me wonder about the veracity of the other points INTC is trying to make about centrino.
Oh, I see, a marketing gimmick. I wonder how many centrino sales were/are because of the integrated wireless feature?
Interesting, so what makes it integrated? Or more specifically how is that different from what AMD does?