Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sell a $2.5 million dollar house for 500K?
Let's say you have a modest investment in PPHM of 50,000 shares. At some point this year, the stock hits $10 and you decide to sell. 500K in your pocket. Fine.
But what if Bavi beat Avastin? Avastin did $7.7 billion dollars of sales last year for beating SOC by TWO MONTHS.
If Bavi moves to SOC, then it's a multi-billion dollar drug. PPHM's stock won't be $10. It would be $50.
So your 50,000 shares would be worth $2.5 million.
Would you sell a $2.5 million dollar house for $500,000 ? If Bavi beats Avastin, that's a question you're going to have to ask yourself.
Interesting times.
GLTAL and do your DD.
Joe
Right on, Dave. Amidst all the noise and confusion, the bottom line is that the drug WORKS.
GLTY and GLTAL
Joe
Wook, let the legal process play itself out
I'm cool with that. The world will take notice of Bavi with or without it, soon enough.
I'm personally easing off on checking the pps addictively. I see inflection points driving PPS as well as BP indicators of interest. The history of the stock is this: quiet FOR MONTHS, and then BOOM.
I fully expect ongoing unexpected BOOM's. Our hardy little band is here is going to be fine.
eb, thanks - the partnership will come
The anti-PS platform is indeed, unique, with a very wide applicability across many medical conditions. That's why the majority of us are here.
The "proof-of-concept" missing in Celsion's Thermadox trial, (which was a phase I, not phase 2 trial, my error) was ignored by enthusiastic CLSN longs. The phase I trial was truly terrible, as it had only 9 patients in it who actually had HCC out of a total of 24. And only 3 of these 9 had HCC larger than 3 cm. This was Thermadox's treatment indication!
Cut to Bavi. The "proof of concept" for Bavi is acknowleged throughout the scientific community. Review the cancer journals. Dig into the science. PS is a crucial marker for cancer-affected cells and is a real dampener of the immune system response if extroverted by flippase. When Bavi ties it up and neutralizes it, cell-mediated immune response and cytokines can kick back on. Cell-mediated immunity is CRUCIAL for cancer and viral affected cells. Think CD4, CD8, NK, macrophages, Il-2, interferon gamma, and many others. The cancer killers.
If the labeling error had not occurred in 9/2012, the stock would most likely be $12-15 right now. How? Well, indicators of interest from BP would be overt, ramping speculation of the stock.
Investors here know that Bavi's potential is still there and will soon enough be recognized and rewarded. But given the unusual and widely applicable nature of the platform, a partnership/buyout will most certainly take time.
Believer20, CLSN phase II had 9, repeat 9, patients, my friend
The great run up for CLSN was from $2 to $8-9 dollars last year. Anybody who had a 4-bagger there and still decided to hold through a shaky Phase III deserved to lose their money, quite frankly.
Sorry, but the Bavi platform, and I do mean platform, has a LOT more going for it than heating up doxyrubicin. Do your own DD and decide for yourself. There's tons of reading to do. Partnerships are not easy to negotiate, and in the grand scheme of things, 6 months from 9/24/2012 is miniscule. We're patient, because we know what we've got. Bavi showed a 60% improvement over the control arm in 2nd line NSCLC, which itself contained Bavi. So Bavi was competing against itself and still blew away previous competitors. No stat sig, you say? Well, phase 2 is not designed for stat sig. It's designed for safety and signal, both of which were clearly there.
Most people think Bavi is just a lung cancer drug. But it's not that. It's a platform that exploits the extroversion of phosphatidylserine on cancer and virally-infected cells. It has great potential applications in medical imaging. But again, do your own DD and good luck.
FTM, it's the 60% improvement over the control arm
...that has kept me in this stock. Of course, we all know it would have been more like 100% improvement without the labeling fiasco.
I'm confident Bavi will give great results for first-line. If we get breakthrough designation as well, then the stock is in double digits easily.
GLTAL, and all IMO,
Joe
Wook, I'm in your CALM party, too.
Bavi will soon enough be recognized by the larger investment world, JUST AS SOON as the Big Boys, MM's, and Hedgies get their piece of the action with these low prices.
Lots of good posts today on why a little bitty penny stock is getting so many people "hot and bothered." Gee, a $1.30 stock from Tustin, CA. Quick! Run the presses! The stock is down $0.15 today! Time to baiiiillllll....
And yet no news.
My personal take on Bavi relates to the work of a German physician (oncologist) named Hans Nieper. (Google him.) He cured Reagan's colon cancer. He was a world-renowned oncologist. When the rich, famous, and influential got cancer, they didn't call for chemotherapy and radiation, they called for Hans Nieper, MD.
Nieper argued that the best way to fight cancer is to strengthen the immune system, not weaken it. He was particularly interested in the electro-magnetic potential of the cell membrane and how depolarization changes in that membrane, when affected by cancer, placed the cell OUTSIDE THE GRASP OF THE IMMUNE SYSTEM.
Nieper argued that in order to render the cancerous cell once again susceptible to the immune system, the depolarized cell had to once again be repolarized.
What's critical to us is that phosphatidyserine, when extroverted by flippase to the outer cell membrane DEPOLARIZES the cancer-affected cell, thus placing it beyond the grasp of the immune system.
Enter Bavi. Tie up the extroverted PS, regenerate a potential in the outer cell membrane, and voila, the immune system is back in business and goes back to attacking the cancer.
Some fascinating DD to look over if interested.
Of course, all this is IMHO. But I did add another 5K to my stash today. Take that for what it's worth.
GLTAL
Bungler, I agree. The VAST majority of pipeline drugs self-destruct.
PPHM's monoclonal antibody anti-PS platform is still here for a reason.
Garnick would be OUTTA here big time, if Bavi didn't have the chops.
Atone, right on, dude - BUY when others are selling
Bavi WORKS! The stock is on sale right now.
Always remember Jimmy Stewart in "It's a Wonderful Life" : (during the bank run scene)
"Potter's not selling! Potter's buying!" Yep.
PPHMownsME, please, look at the results for those "other 10."
They stink. The King is Avastin. I mean, who really cares about the underlings? Who's ever heard of them?
EVERYBODY knows Avastin. You knock off Muhammed Ali, and you've got the title belt.
GLTY
Joe
Seagull, you're right - OBaviWan-Kenobi vs. Darth Avastin
Garnick has set up the title fight brilliantly.
It's BAVI + Carbo + Taxol HEAD ON against Avastin + Carbo + Taxol;
First-line attack against NSCLC. Let's rumble.
The Street will know EXACTLY what Garnick has when the results are posted. No doubt about it. If you beat Avastin, the crown is yours. Period.
OBaviWan-Kenobi against Darth Avastin. May the force be with us.
bimerk, excellent post. It's astounding how many "experts" think the trial had to be powered to 0.05 - it's incredible, really. I mean, this is a Phase II, 2, two, dos, deux, trial! Signal and safety, that's it.
Bavi performed well and will attract a BP partner. Oncology is a very lucrative field and the major players are looking for new blood BIG TIME this year. If longs can only be patient enough, I'm convinced they'll (we'll) be rewarded handsomely.
Today was a great affirmation of Bavi. The market ignored the results because they want BP to step in and shepherd Bavi the rest of the way. Once that happens, the institutional money will pour in and you'll have your PPS.
BOTTOM LINE: Bavi works and PIII coming
Pancreatic cancer and lung cancer - the TOUGHEST cancers out there, and BAVI works!!
We're headed to PIII with a partner. Longs needs patience, although I'm certain some will give up. Guess "instant gratification takes too long" in the market nowadays.
The data are there, the Mab works, BP will come calling because lung cancer isn't going anywhere (China, anyone?).
Sit tight.
BOTTOM LINE: PPHM needs BP affirmation
All longs should be VERY happy today; good data, PIII coming, it's just that the Street doesn't trust PPHM right now. Get outside affirmation of what's going on, i.e. we're all headed to PIII with partnership, and this puppy is $5 easy.
Hold tight.
Good point, but you can't get blood from a stone, either.
Oncology is big business, probably the biggest in medicine, and if BAVI gives you the positive PR you need to get out in front, it's worth it.
Besides, Bavi will OFTEN be paired with conventional chemo, due to its synergy. So, in many regards, it's BAU.
PPHM TL, I agree. My message is simply this: be patient.
Switching in and out of stocks, chasing the latest green shoot, rarely works out. We've all been there and we've all been burned. It's part-and-parcel of learning the market.
I don't see PPHM going much lower, but stranger things have happened. Presently trying to chalk up more dry powder, personally. I will buy more on the dips. Good luck, dude. I've done a fair amount of DD (there's always more to be done), I like the data I've seen, so I've made my bets.
All investors have to do the same. Don't rely on me, don't rely on anyone. I think TONS of people listened to that Alex Heisenberg guy on Seeking Alpha who insisted that CLSN's Thermodox was mathematically PROVEN to work, according to his model. I'm sure many rookie investors took the article at face value.
Serious error. Read the comments on his article. There were many serious investors there who methodically dismantled his argument. But far too many just read the headlines that CLSN was a slam-dunk. Serious disaster ensued.
I remember well when CLSN was $2 a share. I seriously thought about buying in, and kicked myself for not doing so, as it ran up to $8-9. I certainly resisted jumping in at $7, thinking the run-up probably priced in any approval, and the downside would be dire. Well, CLSN, is pretty much toast.
Lesson? Do your own DD, and don't listen to anyone other than yourself on ANY trade.
MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE EVER: "DO NOTHING"
For heaven's sake, just let PPHM sit. March, April, summertime, this locomotive is barreling down the tracks. Don't get off the PPHM express. In fact, don't do ANYTHING. Warren Buffet is not necessarily my favorite, but he's done well with his stocks an awful lot. BY DOING NOTHING.
For all those who insist PPHM will sit at $2-3 dollars the ENTIRE year, and be $2.12 in December, 2013, I can only say this: Look at the friggin' event chart! It's virtually ALL 2013 event-driven.
Make no mistake. This stock WILL move in 2013. IMO, I am convinced which way it will move. And yes, PPHM has a disruptive technology that many people with trillions at stake might like to destroy. Which is precisely why it will be acquired by BP. Business is all about absorbing your enemy, not destroying him.
"Tom, I'm a businessman. Blood is a big expense." - Saluzzo, in "The Godfather."
It's much easier for BP to absorb and profit from PPHM than destroy the technology. The data will knock people's socks off. And the fortunate early birds will be singing LOUDLY.
Nighttrain, PPHM tumbled b/c of LABELING not efficacy
Otherwise, this triple back to $2 makes little sense to me.
PPHM ain't no CLSN - our drug WORKS
What everyone forgot about with CLSN is that their Phase II data was PALTRY (something like 9 patients).
An awful lot of people lost their shirts this morning at 7 a.m.
UTTER UTTER SHOCK.
Thank God I stayed away. Although I do remember well when it was $2 pps.
Wook, ASTOUNDING is the number of investors in PPHM who have NO CLUE about the science. Monoclonal what? Phospho, phosphate what? MOS who? The post 1/7 run up brought many short-termers on board, who quickly bailed with the retrace.
They have no idea that BAVI is widely applicable across many cancers, just like Avastin. They don't know that Garnick calls 9/24 a "hiccup" and calls for everyone to "hold on." He's never seen MOS like Bavi. This is Genentech's rainmaker talking.
When Roche or another Big Pharma, comes calling, this Board will be, uh, more than a little PLEASED, with the resulting pps.
Look, Bavi is a super-charged Avastin with VIRAL applications. The stock is sitting on a powder keg, the pending studies are gasoline, and MOS is the match.
Great comment - my sentiments EXACTLY
Hold tight, boys. Never has Garnick seen MOS in 30 years like Bavi. And here's Roche/Genentech's rainmaker saying it. Holy smoking pps.
Bavi is a super-Avastin. Do the math. Avastin was (is) COLOSSAL.
Is Bavi a super-Avastin?
And if it is, how much is it worth? Avastin regularly brought in close to $3 billion per year before going off-label for breast CA. Avastin continues to be one of the best-selling oncology drugs in the world, particularly for colon, lung, kidney, and brain cancer.
It is numbers such as Avastin's that cause me to lay out "ridiculous" numbers for PPHM's pps. Avastin binds up VEGF, blocking tumor vascular growth and Bavi binds up PS, turning the immune systems lights back on AND blocking up tumor vascular growth.
If Bavi follows Avastin's success, then my predictions for PPHM's pps will indeed look paltry.
$41 as a peak only, then it should settle in the twenties.
Typical buyout stuff. The platform is worth a LOT.
I'm not foolhardy with PPHM, I just have a hard time suffering fools.
It's astounding how little the bench science is talked about. Every YMB kiddy-guru pretty much states, "Well, the science really doesn't count for much, I pretty much follow the stock price."
Well, geewhiz, who knew? Once-in-a-great-while there's a contrarian nugget on YMB, but it's so rare, it's not worth my or your time.
Look, my take is either you think Bavi is a super-charged Avastin or you don't. Garnick shepherded Avastin through the whole process and he'll do the same with Bavi. Except Bavi has much wider applicability than Avastin.
I bring this up and I get blasted. Bavi is poised to be a multi-billion dollar drug across a wide range of solid cancer and anti-viral applications. With a $2 stock price? Whoa.
The stock will hit $41/pps sometime this year, most likely as a peak. That's based on anywhere from $2-5 billion valuation from Big Pharma that is ultra-hungry this year for young blood. Pfizer ALONE has $25 billion in CASH burning a hole in its pocket. The industry as a whole has about $70 billion. These numbers are all in mainstream recent articles. Look 'em up.
My take is BAVI is well-positioned in an excellent year as a candidate for Big Pharma shopping. Either you see that or you don't.
YMB isn't going to tell you this.
HAD it with YMB; the fools won't listen
Howdy y'all. New guy on IHUB, but battle-worn from the YMB insanity. Tried to bring up, you know, that funny thing called "bench science" over there. Whoa. Big mistake.
Let me just start by saying I'm invested in PPHM and Bavi because of its mechanism of action. I think the PS platform has tremendous applicability, minimal side effects, (Taxotere-Bavi equivalent to Taxotere-placebo as Dr. Garner of U of T-SW Dallas notes in NSCLC), and a terrific future in front of it.
I truly believe with the front-line data coming, we're looking at some serious multiples on present valuation. Partnership, buyout/absorption, killer data and we're looking at another 14-bagger.
Look, PPHM did the 14-bagger thing once. And I truly believe that Garnick knows it'll 14-bag again. Posters here were called every name in the book when the stock was $0.37 and the calls were for $5. "Mad pumpers" "scam-artists" "irresponsible" "hopeless dreamers". The list goes on. Bottom line - what happened. The stock 14-bagged.
What has changed? Tell me what has changed? OK, CSM punted the 1 mg data. So what. The efficacy will shine through even with the placebo-1 mg combo. Pancreatic data will be KILLER.
This stock is going seriously north. YMB can't predict when it'll fart next. I've had it.