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tomorrow 9/11 market rally (political not economical)
looking at that chart it's amazing how super volatile SPY has been compared to others traditionally actually the volatile ones.
I was wondering about equal weighted but didn't know they had a such ETF.
I'll ask few questions as I assume you already are way ahead than me just starting to look into it.
What is your opinion trading RSP vs SPY ?
(also does bid (or ask) "disappears" to go farther away and such games?)
What is your opinion of charting or evaluation of chart of RSP vs SPY. Is it more accurate charting analysis if I do it on RSP than SPY?
On the first baby-steps af analysis I see RSP behaved for my own charting way way more "friendly" so to speak. Things clicked better.
I still have to go back to glance over many more segments to pronounce something more firmly, but there is something I like about it, just can't put the dot on the i.
I'm thinking as I write this, that since RSP seems more tame (to me, so far), that when it shows a move coming to just jump on a hot SPY horse like AMZN or TSLA etc, and capture more of a move.
My primary concern is if RSP charting can help me with SPY charting (and how), and secondary, if it's a good (better?) ETF to trade.
Or you can go really small, say 2 calls, so to increase the feel for the market , while not being totally out.
And if the market goes to a level you like then step in with more dough
all the best
"Market rise BECAUSE vaccine hopes"...
(day after day after day after day.......)
Fast forward (today)...
"Market rise DESPITE vaccine setback"
The common denominators are:
1. BS
2. Market rise
case closed...
Thank you my friend. I appreciate the comments on S/R. They are the MAIN thing, the REAL deal.
Your chart is a little difficult to pinpoint S/R for visual/technical reason.
What I see in your MSFT chart (looking in my own SC daily chart):
200 AREA , so right about here, it's a real support area, and bounce CAN be expected (not guaranteed).
If it fails, then next support is 187 AREA (so give or take a dolla)
If that fails, then 140 AREA it is.
Given that now MSFT is at 200, that would make ANOTHER drop of -30% potential possible.
If the generals drop another -20-30% then the little men would go further down being weaker and all, and this would leave SPY in a steep fall to search support (and fight to hold) at 220-225.
For SPY 225 again, and especially if soon, would be quite dramatic.
But it is entirely possible given the recklessness of the American financial management, that SPY will find support and fight it here and there, kicking and screaming, or even make another ATH.
That can be true.
Quote: "329 already flashed in the futures trading earlier .. you can expect that level INTRADAY tomorrow to potentially be a low if not lower ... 325 perhaps"
However,
I also ACTUALLY (painfully) KNOW that support has been numerous times touched only during after hours, then next day on cash session SPY went ballistic upwards and never looked back to touched that support in market hours thus leaving us the market hours traders like fools waiting with our hands out for a tag of support that never came.
Basically only the "smart" money got let in on the sweet deal, a buy at support good low-risk deal.
I don't know what's cooking now, but I just want to present the whole picture, that's all.
You too buddy, you are not exception.
You post nice charts.
How about you throw a word here and there in your posts about support and resistance?!
I'm not asking the impossible here.
It's both technical and ESSENTIAL in charting.
The closest you came is you drew support and resistance lines. THAT was very ok.
But you still fall short of getting the courage to mention them in a normal course so to speak manner.
For example "SPY (or whatever symbol) should bounce at support at XXX.xx (shown by line or whatever you like), but if it fails then the next support is at YYY.yy (shown by line or whatever).
This is very simple and traditional charting, and whatever is old and time tested it holds even tho it may wobble here and there under a new test or another.
Think fairly, I don't criticize any chart or charting.
For example ..... this drop of SPY because was so sharp and deep, it created a resistance. On its own it doesn't mean top, but SPY would have to violate the top of the decline in order to eliminate this resistance (which I think it's both possible and impossible, depending on what I'm looking at...)
The 340 was resistance , got violated, thus should've been support. But instead we witnessed 340 being margarine on Nevada asphalt.
This by rule of support and resistance (that I know) suggests that the prior violation of 340 resistance is a weak or outright BS violation.
You seem like a smart Canadian fella. Why not adding a bit of SO NEEDED yet basic elaboration on support and resistance.
Have a good night.
"Generally" is the key word...
This can go to the next support...
I found out that your thinking is valid though.
I too measure any PERSONAL G/L with a HISTORICAL performance yardstick and say ... "OK, that's about enough for me"
The most important elements in charting are support and resistance and it would be nice if you honor your handle and at the very least mention anything in that regard.
Yes?
So far Nada
which is very sad
335 seems a good odds long daytrade
now 344 as well as 350 are painted as resistances
350 is a moving target, but 344 is more static
SPY may spike or grind there
by rallying this excessively then crash in 2 days, the goofs destroyed a lot of confidence
I just trade my indicators and moving averages and cycles fwiw, it's all good
a lot of things near support
Tesla for example has 360 support , only 20 away.. (provided it holds, not a guarantee)
But near support doesn't equate test of support, so when the market opens next week it could start bloody, but could potentially end green or very green as short weeks tend to do that, being politically corect and green (very high occurrence)
I didn't check too many horses tbh
no way my friend, the violation must be in daily chart, that means it has to close under that level on a daily basis.
But nevertheless the Top 2020 case looks mighty strong.
Daily mid BB should be a wall now imo, so shorting spikes into it should work.
Those spikes should be so spectacular that will numb the trader's finger wanting to place a short..
Say gap up 2% and still run...
335 should be a buy opp, but strategy needed
340-337,7 was resistance
it got violated badly as SPY went to 360
According to the technicality this should be support now.
A close BELLOW these (lower) levels will negate the upward violation thus negating it as support on this "test".
Problem is that the market is fed (pun intended) liquidity to do away with any and all technicalities if it gets too crowded in some spots.
What I am trying to do, is find the highest odds technicalities i can see, then KNOWING that they have loopholes and loser signals, still go with it and trade them anyways thinking of the balance of trades rather than trade by trade.
For example, buying mid BB will land some losers, but will also land some winners, usually more than the losers.
To improve this we add a secondary layer of trades. For example Buying mid BB, but if it fails then buying the cycle (which is independent for the most part from BB), so the combo should work better.
The two items , like BB and cycle must NOT be related, otherwise won't work.
For example stochastic and moving averages are not related either, but they complement each other beutifully.
The way SPY close today, especially if closes bellow open and say at the lows ... or even bellow yesterday, then we can probably have a black crash coming next week..
This change of heart of the market as well as what I see in charts combo, strongly suggest a market TOP for the 2020
In other words while buying calls and long from support are still viable trades, now shorting also are viable trades
This until trend turns downwards, after that it's only shorting (when SPY trading bellow daily 50)
Fundamentally for a top, it's election uncertainty, and corona heading into winter where it gets amplified by weather and season conditions and as well by STUPID humans that got complacent over the summer
This in turn will further crush many businesses
Now if we get a vaccine from self anointed doctor Bill Gates and gang , full of nano trackers, then maybe things change? Nah
same programmed market that was rolling over resistances senselessly like they didn't exist...
Are now rolling through supports like they don't exist...
just an observation on the grinding machine
test
trader
I'm buying the dip
if it doesn't hold I'll close the position and wait for next support level
trend is up, and in that context this is a dip
if trend turns down then I will buy puts, not before, not fishing tops as 330 340 or 360 all just numbers to them
indicators can and are manipulated (by engineered price move of the underlying).
To properly benefit of an indicator you have no choice but add a NAKED price criteria.
For example, if I see an indicator going oversold, but price barely moved down, I wait for at least one strong spike down before buying that condition. This is just an example of many more.
But it greatly improves the reliability of an indicator's signal.
In your case you even didn't bother to wait for a resistance, you just arbitrarily shorted.
I'm thinking that people like you are plenty and that's one more reason why they rally it senselessly..
I'm thinking that Trump wants SPY 400 so he can claim that the market doubled under his watch and being a proof how great America got again..
hmm, you are the only one that caught that.
Nice.
Good observational eye.
Quote: "looks like we got 2 months to go.."
I have to add that I looked back (in 3 years increment windows) and there were quite few failures. This last 3 years window shown in the post suggests/shows (wrongly) that it has a very good pinpointing value, but like I said going back one can see it's not so great.
I think at best I could "increase my expectations" for a top from this chart, then look in another chart to fish a resistance and hope I got the top..
I'm a little disappointed as I hoped for something better than coin flip.
But I do appreciate anyone's effort and contribution.
Thanks
fwiw when sending a message on ihub I see down on the browser ... "(waiting for) sending request to ..... facebook,com"
The memo I got says very few rules are cut in stone in this market
CNBC is euphoric since forever fwiw, and many many others too
I don't see it weak because I don't see resistance (including being at ATH with a vengeance gap up)
if today were for example to close bellow yesterday, then we are talking some resistance
until then to me it definitely looks a BTFD story
Today it may or may not be a decent put play.
But tomorrow I think the put play will be happening.
355 should offer a temporary barrier at a minimum.
Not because it's a magic number but because it's a "secret" number and ... coupled with the daily chart speed which in spite of slowed ATR it begins to go parabolic. And we all know that parabolic has NEVER been sustainable. Since we talk SP500 parabolic is the last thing that can happen. In the event that it does happen, then the drop will be news-worthy and extremely likely to hurt people, a lot of people.
It's like top of 2000 all over
Then it was 2000 bug scare and consequence that had people buy tech to be safe, then vacuum and implosion..
Now we have 2020 bug scare corona, that have people but tech and Amazon and Netflix to be safe, then ... vacuum and implosion II...
This time is also coincidental with election which can put some energy into a drop
(why drop and not rally? because in parabolic charts drop is what's coming)
Each chart has it's own support and resistance. Mixing and matching is dangerous and should be left for those who know advanced charting and with a lot of years under the belt.
I'd say for shorting go with daily for something like Tesla to start seeing a resistance, then wait for a monthly to confirm, but go with daily to trade.
So if you look at the chart you trade from resistance towards support.
Knowing that you now have the 2 parameters to plan which options you want to play (time and the-money value). Options are a different field than charting, extremely complex. I'm by no means expert. I see myself a struggling option player, always in search for learning and improving.
But what I can say with the little I know is buy OTM far enough to be cheap, but not too far in the expected move so some of the expected move should make your OTM become ITM. Timewise it really depends on the time horizon you give the move, so you must have that time covered, plus another 2-4 weeks for just in case.
I have seen trades on youtube where some lame-ass expensive options placed strategically , panned an obscene amount of profit dollars.
The secret sauce was to evaluate the mega move, then position yourself as per description above. (some deciphering I did myself, the clips don't really say it all)
Particularly Tesla and then the other high fliers are so crowded (important element) and so high fliers, that when the vertically flying plane stalls, the ensuing drop will be both spectacular and juicy trade.
"when spy does these slow grinds... it’s pretty pointless to chart... "
In slow grinds holding options in right direction is a losing proposition for holding on, unless like our friend "wish" suggested you ride long spread. So only intraday daytrade.
The way I see it is to look to daily chart and attempt to fish a trade with intraday chart in direction of daily chart.
Furthermore, I find the futures charts like daily more telling than regular SPY. As a warning, I have seen futures charts fked up badly (ON PURPOSE if someone asks me). In those circumstances I take that period as a "reset" (design to throw off everybody) and UNITE that blob area with prior-after period.
I have seen this shameless act also on regular SPY chart. Don't ask which periods as I don't keep track and I don't remember, but I'm aware of this rigging. BTW they tend to let the chart like this, never fixed back to reality.
So trading with intraday charts is fine, and holding on if ATR speed is above 0.3%. (ATR or a slope of an average like mid BB 60)
Alternatively if daily is upward instead of trading intraday chart just trail a buying order to catch a dip and go watch TV or play something, or whatever. The dip fishing takes care of decay factor. If speed is slow then close this position (for profit that is) at ATR value maximization, then throw the fishing rod for next dip fishy...
Looking at charts with this in mind you can see good trades all over the place that passed by.
Alternatively we can join the whining chorus of antagonized people.
the SPY chart represents psychology of many including the manipulators
the SPY board represents the psychology of few of us
When the two diverge, you better stick with the bulk , the bigger one
Yes, there are few good traders around that can stay ahead of some moves, but nobody strikes gold all the time
If I see a high odds bet I take it.
To me it makes perfect sense.
About the melt-up on low volume - it is rational , the low volume actually enables the big players to move the market as they please, to make whatever pattern and traps they want. It's like a big gorilla in a girls only kindergarten.
It is when volume is big that any melting is for real.
I think that this melt-up on the backs of few stocks is actually setting up some SUPER-juicy trades.
So I plan to be very patient and hit stocks like Tesla and FB and such with puts when strong hesitation and resistance shows up. I am pretty sure that the big money will unload these super-over-over-over-valued names and then will be a lot of fun.
It is doable.
I don't buy or trade BTC but when it showed resistance at 20,000 I looked at the chart , very simple, no indicators, bare candles, and told a pal to sell his hold as it will go down to 6,000 or lower..
It happened (he held)
So I'm saying that while Tesla is not BTC, while it can ignore fundamentals and valuation for a while, it does oblige by chart rules
After all charts are a representation of multiple factors , and a reflection of psychology thus rarely fails
Just like now, trend (chart) is up and nothing else matters.
When chart will be down, nothing else will mater either...
no, no Lol, it's not limited to month where almost all days are anyway green
do dd
Isn't it nice to have big odds trades here and there
I don't see the joke
first of any month SPY goes green
this trade rarely fails
I don't know why it's this way tbh
it's like a rigged roulette that leans heavily on green 1st of month
I would like to know the reason whatever it is
even when 1st of the month is not green, just hold it, or average down and the trade makes money in another day or two, but those are rare times, usually it's green
I start seeing some selling, but given the strong monthly and weekly charts as well as the daily and being at ATH, all in all I can expect a Monday with green in it and maybe another ATH with a gap over 350 of course..
I'm not yet with anything here. Waiting for resistance break or visit to support.
Waiting is trading
I found speed of filling an order can only be judged with high degree of confidence when SPY is near a pivot (algo).
Not only that, but why stop there, go to the next step. You can go to bid/ask and watch that VERSUS the price/pivot proximity. Then you get a real good stuff.
Unlike SPY, options pricing can/is perceived like a "favor" from the market makers. Probably somebody can add more description on this.
So if SPY is about to rally for a bit, then the market makers will want to:
1. sell those calls (if any, as they can also legally refuse for some looonggg seconds there!!!) to as high price as possible (making you chase price too), and this BEFORE the SPY even rallied, just at pivot.
2. NOT selling calls on the cheap (even though that cheap price is warranted by volatility/SPY algorithm)
So I find this bid/ask dance watching quite useful AT THE PIVOT.
I am sure I don't know much yet about all this.
Another related thing is they typically don't/won't hit your order, so if I want to buy and park my order at bid it will be a long while to get it, but if the upcoming direction is against me, then my order will be filled fast regardless of what the bid (fake) number is.
thanks, wow, what an angle
Buying and Holding puts with price in upper 15 min BB is not advisable
I have said this before
maybe the fed will say something to make market plunge, who knows
all the best
Thank you, I appreciate it
15% even 10% is good
How much shorter the shorter dated OTM options to sell?
I like Long dated options as have lower decay.
I don't understand the problem with stoploss tbh.
But my only problem is the cost. They tend to have fatty premiums. So I have to put down a lot of dough, and that lowers my percentage potential profit dramatically.
0.25 gain on 0.50 option is 50.00% gain, whereas in the same situation a 0.25 gain on say 10.00 option is a mere 2.5% while there is a lot of capital just tied up in there
I'm still a student and learning options, it's a very big area
It looks like Gold bottoming over resistance
That can only happen with big money
Then it all begins
Particularly if August high is taken out
a mere 100 bucks or 5%
the puppeteers don't realize how easy is to lose control
Then we should get used to DAILY ATHs for SPY
One day people will wake up, there is no question
wake up to what's been happening and what's coming
(rising markets like this is also good for Biden election as he can rightfully so argue that only the rich profit while the rest are suffering, so not so smart move by the incumbent but a mistake, maybe a decisive one)
Oh, btw, yet another New ATH SPY today