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Yeah, they're pretty amazing. I thought you'd like that.
Buzz
No wonder we can't finish up things in iraq. Is this the kind of pansy ass crap you did in the marines? When you weren't in the "brig"
Just because brig and raw like to give each other nude rubdowns with hot oil after a long day guarding the beach, doesn't necessarily mean they're "fags". Ripped is an appropriate description of brig, however, as in
"I got so ripped last night I woke up in a public restroom face down in my own puke"
buzz
I'm on an orange crush kick. eom
It's not just that they were arms, it was that virtually all of them had "teaser" rates attached as well. I have 2 good friends who are independent loan agents here in socal. They said the vast majority of those 3/1 arms here had teaser rates attached. When they adjust, they don't just adjust to libor. They adjust to libor + margin, which varies from 1.5% to 2.5% So if libor is now 2.25, they adjust to 3.75% tp 4.75% (usually from a teaser that was round 2.5), and add capital. A loan that was 2,000 a month goes to about 3200.
Buzz
I only turn it on the last half hour, once I'm done trading (I don't trade futs on market close), just to see the fat ass.
Buzz
V nice short in high 60's, I was awaitin on 75
Buzz
Speculation drives the price higher, the lower dollar is just the catalyst, and I don't ever watch cnbc.
Remember, you have to go up 100% to compensate for a 50% decline.
Buzz
There's far too much speculation in commodities right now, setting up a bubble burst. As speculation got out of real estate and equities, it moved into commodities. The kunundrum is, the dollar just keeps tanking which is supporting the price of commodities.
Remember, oil prices aren't as much based on supply/demand as they are the dollar. OPEC bases barrel prices on the dollar. If it used the Euro, oil would be a lot cheaper right now. That's what a lot of peeps don't understand. The rise in oil has as much to do with the drop in the dollar as anything. It would still be expensive here, however, due to deflation of the dollar.
Just my .02.
Buzz
But Cramer said THIS IS THE BOTTOM
Gap and crap. Remember, the day of the fed move is usually the opposite of the next few days.
Buzz
I used to have one just like it when I was about 18 and doing acid.
Buzz
It's a gift. eom
shmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmolton
My prediction for today is the dow goes up 420.41.
Buzz
I'm guessing a 25 cut and down 400 pts on indu .....
oh wait. I thought you meant next meeting.
Buzz
Just had same problem. They're keeping the easy money out of play to us little guys.
Buzz
I'm gonna start building a short in BSC on ths ramp up
Why Bear Stearns stock is in orbit
Why is Bear Stearns (BSC) up nearly 70% Tuesday, to a price about $6 a share above its $2-a-share buyout agreement with JPMorgan Chase (JPM)? Two groups are piling into the company’s stock so they can vote in favor of the deal, a trading source tells Fortune’s Roddy Boyd.
The first group is the hedge funds that were selling so-called credit default swaps that protect the purchaser against a possible bankruptcy at Bear Stearns. Spreads on Bear Stearns CDS soared to 1,000 basis points Friday - meaning it cost $1 million to insure against a default of $10 million face value of bonds. Those spreads have since narrowed to around 350 basis points, or $350,000 per $10 million in insurance, in light of the prospect that JPMorgan Chase will take over Bear’s obligations. So a seller of a Bear Stearns credit default swap on Friday, having taken in $1 million in premium, can now turn around and protect himself against a default in Bear Stearns for $350,000. That translates into a $650,000 gain -and the potential profit stands to get bigger as the close of the transaction approaches and Bear spreads move more in line with JPMorgan’s, which are around 115. Those dynamics give hedge funds a big incentive to make sure the deal goes through.
Beyond the credit default swap trade, there’s another group interested in making sure JPMorgan winds up owning Bear Stearns. Holders of Bear Stearns debt want the deal to go through so they won’t end up fighting with other creditors in bankruptcy court over the remains of the firm - the likely outcome if Bear shareholders turn the deal down. And Bear Stearns bonds that recently traded as low as 80 cents on the dollar could soon be worth 100 cents if JPMorgan goes through with its purchase.
So while taking a loss on the stock makes little sense on the face of it, buying at $7 to get cashed out at $2 can pay off if you’ve bet enough money elsewhere.
Most peeps don't read data. If the fed says "inflation is under control", then it's under control. Unless you read the data. Then you realize, it's close to out of control. CPI annual rate right now at 2.3%, but PPI at about 4%, which hasn't been passed on to consumer yet.
Don't fight the fed! This appears to be s snap back. Fall resumes soon.
Buzz
I would usually agree with you on that, except for the expanding credit crunch into consumer credit, and the fact that mastercard took away the atm bus of about 9 major banks due to security issues.
Buzz
Any one of em. Just want to see some real capitulation, not just short term panic followed by a few stupid analysts saying this was the bottom off a low volume ppt induced rally.
Buzz
We may finally get our black monday. Futs down about 30 points from friday's close right now, but about 60 from their high earlier in the weekend.
Buzz
Bank earnings next week. Should be fun! eom
black monday??? ;)
AND Bernanke, who is just a pawn of bush, imo.eom
Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens
by Phil Izzo
Thursday, March 13, 2008
provided by
The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.
"The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co., who was among the 71% of 51 respondents to say that the economy is now in a recession.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales tumbled 0.6% in February; sales excluding volatile auto and parts decreased 0.2%. The decline reflected a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, as Americans grapple with high gasoline prices and the credit crunch, as well as drops in home values and other asset prices.
More from The Wall Street Journal Online:
• See the Complete WSJ Economists Survey and Download the Data
• Housing Market Has Further to Fall
• Brainstorming About 'Bailouts'
The survey, conducted March 7 through March 11, marked a precipitous shift to the negative from the previous survey conducted five weeks earlier. For example, the economists now expect nonfarm payrolls to grow by an average of only 9,000 jobs a month for the next 12 months -- down from an expected 48,500 in the previous survey. Twenty economists now expect payrolls to shrink outright. And the average forecast for the unemployment rate was raised to 5.5% by December from 4.8% in the previous survey.
Much of the gloom stemmed from last Friday's employment report, which showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, the second consecutive monthly decline. "My recession call comes from the employment data," said Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital. "It struck me as a recessionary number."
Twenty-nine of 55 respondents said they expect the economy to contract in the current quarter and 25 expect it to do so in the second. The average of all the forecasts is for meager growth -- just 0.1% at an annual rate in the current quarter and 0.4% in the second.
Although the classic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic product, Mr. Stanley pointed out that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonpartisan organization that is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end, doesn't necessarily follow that definition. "If you go back to the 2001 recession, there was only one negative GDP quarter, and there might not even be one negative quarter in this recession," he said.
The economists also expressed growing concerns that a 2008 recession could be worse than both the 2001 and 1990-91 downturns. They put the odds of a deeper downturn at an average 48%, up from 39% in the previous survey. Mark Nielson of MacroEcon Global Advisors said that "we recognize the previous two recessions were mild and, if a recession does occur, it is likely to be slightly worse than the previous two."
Amid the concerns about the economy, respondents expect more action from the government and the Federal Reserve. Some 63% said the use of public money to deal with the housing crisis is now likely or certain, while on average they expect the Fed to lower its benchmark federal-funds rate to 2% by June from the current 3%.
Futures markets Thursday priced in certainty of at least a 0.5 percentage point cut in the Fed's rate target and up to 90% probability of a 0.75 point cut. Officials had, prior to this week, appeared unconvinced a 0.75 point cut was needed, given signs that inflation psychology is worsening. But those views may have been affected by continued upheaval in credit markets and the weak retail sales and employment data. Market participants say this would be a risky time to cut less than investors expect. The Fed will have to weigh the urgency of addressing the continued credit crunch against the risk of appearing unconcerned about inflation.
However, the Fed's job may be complicated by inflation concerns. The economists raised their average forecast for consumer-price increases to 3.5% by June, up from 2.7% in the prior survey. The change reflects persistently high oil prices and a 4.3% jump in prices last month from the year before. February's CPI data will be released Friday, and economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect a 4.5% increase from a year ago.
Even as the Fed has made clear that it is most focused at the moment on threats to economic growth, some central bank policy makers have continued to voice concerns about the possibility of resurgent inflation. The central bank has used unconventional methods to boost liquidity in the market; its goal is to limit the use of its bluntest weapon, interest-rate reductions, which can fuel price pressures.
Meanwhile, most forecasters expect a recovery to begin in the second half of this year, as the government's stimulus package and the Fed's interest-rate cuts begin to spur the economy. By the end of the year, the economists expect inflation still to be hovering at an uncomfortably high 2.7%, raising the question of when the Fed will start raising rates.
Some 84% of economists in the survey said the Fed was too slow to raise interest rates in 2003, and policy makers don't want to repeat that mistake. But "it's going to take some time even under the best of circumstances before the Fed can be comfortable that the economic situation has stabilized," said Bruce Kasman of J.P. Morgan Chase.
One thing is clear: The darkening economic outlook has made Ben Bernanke's job less secure, especially with a new president about to enter the White House. The economists gave the Fed chairman just a 59% chance of being reappointed in 2010. "If a Democrat is elected he won't be reappointed, and [presumptive Republican presidential nominee John] McCain may opt for another, too," said David Resler of Nomura Securities. "The problems occurred on his watch," added Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital.
Futures roll over day. Very unpredictable, no telling if red or green, all depends where the big boys wanna roll over.
Buzz
Maybe we'll get it down to 0% like japan did. eom
speaking of drunken irishmen ................
I'm one half irish so one kinda like in your sig pic would be perfect. Then I'll show you a new kinda jig.
Buzz
Maybe she'll graduate to deal or no deal, or as I like to call it "deal or let me show you how fuckin' stupid I am when greed takes over".
buzz
Yes, you have to sit in the corner ..............
on my lap! Dressed in a schoolgirl outfit.
;)
Buzz
It only takes one "B" o take attention from the "SOB"s, is that what you're saying?
Buzz
That's not flipping. That's scalping. Just because it's "Tinaism" doesn't mean it's accurate.
Flipping, as used by the other ten thousand or so of us, typically means a trade of 1 to 10 days, and often refers to trading in and out of a stock several times over a period of a few days.
You can make up your own vocabulary at home if you want, but not on this board. Please consider yourself on probation.
Buzz
We aren't anywhere near a bottom, lol. Not so say there won't be rallies along the way, but bottom is at least 5 mo's out and maybe much longer.
Buzz
It looked like a lot of smart money started dumping shortly after the opening run up.
Buzz
Joined you in HAUP today, for old time's sake. Starter only at 3.65 and will add at 3.45 and low 3's should it get that low.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27577176
Buzz
In Zeev's honor, picked up a little haup today. One we both traded a lot.
Buzz
As a long time IHUB member, and Raging Bull/SI before we moved over here, I am saddened today buy what I would consider the loss of an internet message board legend. Zeev Hed, founder of Zeev's Turnips Patch no-politics and politics threads, passed away yesterday after a long fight with cancer. His heart stopped after months of several types of chemotherapy.
Zeev was an outstanding trader, was one of the few posters who I believe was always honest (meaning he posted his losers and winners in real time), and helped me through a rough patch of trading once many years ago with advice/personal experiences via pm. I enjoyed occasional exchanges with him regarding stocks that we both traded, valuing his input, and I can tell you, his presence on IHUB will be missed.
My thoughts go out to his family today. As Zeev usually said after a loser, "ce la vie", and I'm sure that was his attitude towards his fight with cancer while putting up a courageous fight. Can't win 'em all, but he will be missed.
Buzz