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I see a lot of potential for appreciation of your efforts here! I don't think a day or two will cause too much duress, however, I did receive a lot of death threats when I was a day late with the IW!!!
When fortunes are to be made or lost at a single market turn... People threatening to jump from the skyscrapers on a downturn, or dance with Mardi Gras enthusiasm at the sight of the golden bull market, we can appreciate some might get a little carried away awaiting advice from the Oracle of Port Washington (resemblance to any other so-called "Oracle" is purely coincidental, I'm sure). <VBG>
Best,
AIMster
[ii]Use Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" which is shown weekly on their cover page of the Summary & Index section.
Take 100 minus the Appreciation Potential as the IW substitute.
Hi, Tom,
Sounds interesting. Of course, one has to be able to access value line either online or with a trip to the library or some such to get the figure. Do you know, perchance of any similar indicator that's easily available just by virtue of going to a non-proprietary (i.e., publicly accessible like Yahoo Finance) website and going from there? Or we forced in some way or another to use a proprietary prognostication at some cost one way or another?
Thanks,
AIMster
Are you completely convinced that CHY/CHI do not have any hidden exposure to the subprime problem? It seems there is more to come with that problem.
CHI, which just gave me a buy signal, btw on Friday sounds like it has the potential for some wide swings. etfconnect.com offers this description:
"The Fund's investment objective is to provide total return, through a combination of capital appreciation and current income. Under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its managed assets in a diversified portfolio of convertible securities and non-convertible income securities. The portion of the Fund's assets invested in convertible securities and non-convertible income securities will vary from time to time consistent with the Fund's investment objective, changes in equity prices and changes in interest rates and other economic and market factors, although,under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 50% of its managed assets in convertible securities. A substantial portion of the Fund's assets may be invested in below investment grade (high yield, high risk) securities, rated Ba or lower by Moody's or BB or lower by Standard & Poor's or are unrated securities of comparable quality as determined by the Fund's investment adviser. The fund plans to use leverage of approximately 25% of its total managed assets to enhance return."
Their chart has been largely 'up,' until last August's "swoon" if they do have any subprime exposure the volatility may be more so going forward.
As always it seems, caveat emptor, though AIM might start to work with this one pretty well going forward. And the 10.9% dividend yield doesn't hurt either!
Best,
AIMster
Well the sooner the better, before the media becomes unusable. Its written in VB, really? I thought it was a DOS app?
I believe some of the EDI software we use here at work is similarly programmed in VB and will run under DOS or in a DOS VDM in a Windows environment. However, if that's not what it's programmed in, there's an older version of BASIC, Microsoft Professional that ended with version 7 back in, ahem, 1990 or thereabouts. I still have some DOS legacy code running in this thing. One interesting item that this version included, that I still make use of is an integrated ISAM database which is fairly powerful, given the day it was developed in. It produces compiled executables (.exe's) which are tiny programs by today's standards. I also have the option of setting a switch to compile for text mode OS/2 to give you a sense of how ancient this thing is. But for the specialized task we have of recording inbound shipments and producing a packing sheet for stocking purposes it works very well. No frills, not a lot of bells-and-whistles, just a dedicated set of code for a specific task.
I remember back in the day that there were some programs around that could reverse engineer the source code (or some approximation thereto) by essentially decompiling the .exe file. Thus, if Bob Norman can't locate the original code, if we can scare up one of these ancient decompilers we might be able to take a copy of Tom's .exe and use it to create a new source file to start from. Just a thought.
Simtel.net ( http://www.simtel.net/ ) used to have a ton of old DOS/Win shareware around, there might be something there worth checking... if they're still around - been a long time since I looked, if we need to.
Amazing how this legacy software for DOS continues to hold attraction - I suppose it's the simplicity of purpose and execution that makes for the nostalgia trip!!
Best,
AIMster
<OT>
Newport support?
So Tom, are you telling me that I can't still purchase the product at all? Is your license still valid or since the company is defunct, is it now in the public domain?
From what I understand following the general thread on this is that the program copyright is still held by Bob Norman. So, unless he releases it into the public domain (which I think some of us would like to see, as he isn't selling it anymore). In doing so he'd have to deactivate whatever licensing scheme is being used, or issue a valid license code with the release into the public domain.
It's a similar situation to those arcade games that can be run on simulators on a PC. The companies may be long gone but the code is still protected. Same if one were to want to use dBASE or some such ancient product. In theory I favor the idea if the company becomes defunct or they no longer will support a given version of a software that any copy protection scheme should be disabled (or workaround provided) and it should all then become public domain. But that hasn't happened yet and with all the scrambles for 'intellectual property' this and patent that - not likely to change, either. As long as people want to make money off of this stuff, instead of contributing programs just for their own sake - well, there's the rub of it, eh? Open source offers one alternative structure, but it will be some time before there is the same wealth of products available there that there is in the DOS/Windows world.
Best,
AIMster
Market went up before rate cut and is now selling off after cut. I thought investors were happy with the cut!
It's one of those paradoxical things. By cutting our rates, we make other currencies like the Euro more attractive to investors. Given the decline of the dollar of late, this only speeds up a move elsewhere as the dollar holdings now aren't paying as much. Indeed some forsee the decline of the dollar as the world's "reserve currency" to be replaced by the Euro or who knows, with enough capital accumulation maybe in another 20 years out or so the Yuan (China). Now that's a thought that must give Mao some rotations!!
Not that this has no good side, for the lower rates will be of some domestic benefit, think mortgages, for example. So like any mixed bag - pros and cons.
Best,
AIMster
It's that detail to click on 'linkable version' I seem to always forget! This KKD should show the zig-zag more correctly!
Pic List Stocks............
With all due respect to Mr. Cramer, if you want to throw some "mad money" at a rather sweet stock, the venerable Krispy Kreme Doughnut seems like it has enough volatility for AIM's appetite:
Not one to make a main course of, but for a snack might be worth a try.
AIMster
'll check it out as I've had a few people send me emails about this. The problem should only occur if you have SP5 installed as I made it "easier" to manage licenses in SP5 (at least that was the intent
I checked the server just now and couldn't contact it, however I don't think that's the problem. I'll get back to you shortly.
Yessssss! Working again on 30 October - just in time for me to post the end-of-month dividends! What was the 'bug'?
Best,
AIMster
This made me laugh!
>>> The drawback here is that you'll only get about 1/2 as much for the same investment amount,<<<
If I give you a pie I cut into eight slices do you have more pie than if I cut it in to four slices?
In terms of dollar amount you are correct. However in terms of pieces - in other words do you want two days of one slice for dessert and one for a midnight snack versus one night and maybe some alka-seltzer at midnight after the second 1/4 pie slice, using your pie analogy, there is a difference. That's what I was referring to - amount as in amount of shares, not dollar amount. Perhaps I was a little crusty, but hopefully not overdone! <grin>.
Best,
AIMster
Hi, TF,
Looking at ITB and KRE to put the proceeds into or may just sit on the cash for my current accounts. Wondering how low ITB and KRE can go.
Well, theoretically $0.00, though that's not likely with ETF's, short of a massive systemic problem. In looking at the charts, ITB seems like its primary direction has been down. Looks like it was started when things were going along pretty much at a peak - so down from there is no surprise, really, given what's happened to real estate overall. The good news is that investing per share is only a tad above $21 each. KRE on the other hand looks like its had more volatility - good for AIM. The drawback here is that you'll only get about 1/2 as much for the same investment amount, it trading for almost $42/share. Smaller, though useful considerations in that the dividend yield on ITB is 1.13%. with KRE it's 3.47% Both are trading at a slight premium, but only averaged at .25% so it's not too extravagant.
Hope all this helps with your ponderings.
Best,
AIMster
For what it's worth Version 3.0 is acting weird also. I tried running it with a .5 rating, a mere 1% gain and it selected absolutely nothing. Now I know the market may be off, but I don't think it's THAT far off!
Best,
AIMster
Hi, Mark,
Not sure which you'll check first, your email or this board so forgive the duplication. However at least two of us are having problems with AI suddenly claiming that it's not registered anymore. Had been sporadic the last couple of days but now it won't go at all. Any problems with the server where it's "phoning home" to?
Thanks in advance.
Best,
AIMster
Is it just me? I've tried using Automatic Investor tonight several times and it keeps telling me it's not registered. Which it has been for some time now! Is anyone else having problems with it? Checking my firewall it looks like it does 'phone home' to see if you're bona fide - perhaps it's not getting to the server? I even did the obvious of rebooting the computer - no change.
Thanks,
AIMster
Hi, TF,
Open Office for the Mac - If you're not using OS/9 or older you might be in luck. From their website:
System Requirements for OpenOffice.org
The mission of the OpenOffice.org project is: "To create, as a community, the leading international office suite that will run on all major platforms...".
The porting project is responsible for ensuring the widest platform coverage. Platforms currently supported include Microsoft Windows (98 - Vista), GNU/Linux ("Linux"), Sun Solaris, Mac OS X (under X11), and FreeBSD.
Full link is here:
http://www.openoffice.org/dev_docs/source/sys_reqs.html
Best,
AIMster
Six times that (6 sigma) = +/- 0.065. Number of days outside of 6 sigma = 22 on the positive side, 17 on the negative side, 39 in total or around 0.2% of the time. Yet a 6 sigma event is supposedly a 1 - 0.9999996 event (0.00004%) or 1 in 2.5 million day event whilst we've actually encountered 39 in 22500 days - a rate of 1 in 577 event.
So either the time scale used per sigma is way off, or, more likely the general maxim of "one thing in the laboratory, another in the 'real world'". Interesting. I like the way Ben Stein and Tom have put it, "keep plenty of cash."
Best,
AIMster
Some prudent (almost AIM-like) advice from Ben Stein:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/business/yourmoney/14every.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slo...
Best,
AIMster
Does that have any thing to do with Jim Beam or Jack Daniels? :)
OOOOOoooh! Be careful there, Jim Beam's bourbon, and that's from Kentucky, however Mr. Daniels hails from Tennessee! JD being manufactured in a dry county, no less, go figure!
Of course, I've heard it said that "an elephant is a beast of burden, but a pink elephant is a beast of bourbon!"
Drink, and invest, responsibly!
Best,
AIMster
I only post occasionally 'cause I just don't want to sound more like a "smart alek" than I already do. I am really really really reluctant to give folks financial advice (although I do from time to time). I am always afraid that stock tips won't work out, which is why I criticize a lot of television stock tippers. I've been burned over the years, so the stock market is very tricky. Always learning new stuff.
Hi, JA,
That you post at all, even if infrequently still makes you a valued member of this little community we've got going here. Same for everybody else! Not only that, but I wouldn't think you a smart alek, rather a wise guy! <grin>.
Like you, I'm loath to recommend specific investments, though I can wax eloquently on the virtues of AIM and investing principles.
Which begs an interesting thought - back in the day, Lichello mentioned in the book I think it was some member of Congress who opined how one could nail the stock pages to the wall, throw a couple of darts at the paper, then invest in those and have as reasonable a chance of success as one could following all the technically or fundamentally derived opinions of all the so-called "experts". Has anyone tried this idea with AIM? I might in a watch account, just for the heck of it. If I get time and such to set it up, I'll report back later...
Best,
AIMster
Hi, Tom,
Not sure if it's due to your changing the Iwave availability, but I've a sense that the board is slowing down. Perhaps a lot of people were drawn to the periodic prognostication. Like all the people who go to the Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania ground hog day. And maybe all the rest are fairly long-term AIMers so we all pretty much know the theory, process, software, etc. Haven't seen too many 'newbies' lately - even those that did stop in for a bit, like that lady with the nice signature photo, comradelenin, and so on seem to have wandered off to other venues. Perhaps it's because AIM is slower in nature, and we're conditioned to instant this or instant that - a system that uses patience must seem the tortise to a bunch of hares! Of course, the proof is at the finish line, but that's too abstract or distant.
Measured the time interval per 1k postings, and for the most part we're averaging around 1k posts per 95.25 days, with an exceptionally long stretch of 135 days between messages 20k and 21k (not included in the measurement). The current interval at 24k+ is 77 days so far, so we need the better part of 400 postings in the next 15 days or so to stay within the norms of the past few thousand messages.
So, not sure if anybody's got anything else afoot to put out here, but I did want to post this to see if this is just my own perception or are others noticing the same thing?
Best,
AIMster
I am well aware of the possibility that the exchange rate could keep dropping after the net worth position is exhausted, but that is obvious. The equity can be (or most likely would be) sold at the point the credit is gone and then there is a debt position. But this is no different than with any investment that exits by virtue of borrowed money. As long as the trading is done without creating a debt one can at most see his equity drop in value.
Hi, Conrad,
Interesting idea. I know in the book Lichello made mention of, but didn't really consider currencies as a trading vehicle. Same with futures, for that matter. In theory, everything that has a cyclic up-and-down process should, in one form or another be amenable to AIM or some form thereof. The questions are what are the extremes and can the average investor using such a system in a specific investment instrument follow through to the extremes or will the whole thing crash-and-burn?
Certainly stocks and currencies can be depreciated to have $0 worth (or almost so). Think Enron for stocks, Germany late 1920's early 1930's for a currency example. The danger inherent in a contrarian system is that one must have reasonable expectation that the given investment, with increasing investments being fed into it as the market position for it is getting worse and worse, will, in some due time return to an up scale and not flame out leaving the investor's increasing investment at a bigger loss. People who don't have the intestinal fortitude for exercising such a strategy are probably better with the momentum crowd - let the profits run and cut losses a.s.a.p, rather than doubling positions on the way down. I got burned a bit earlier this year on New Century Financial - one of the real estate flameouts so it can and does happen. Usually not too often though - and I've moved 100% from individual stocks to closed-end and ETF funds. Maybe less velocity up or down, but less likely to implode, either.
So if I'm paranoid enough about stocks, let alone venturing into the realm of Forex, I probably won't be able to give you many more ruminations beyond this one - but hopefully you'll find some nugget of useful information or perhaps a jolt of insight to light the proverbial light bulb above your head!
Keep us informed - others who've ventured into such environs may well be able to offer more direct assistance.
Best,
AIMster
Hi TF, I just tried out the Zen Master and Hot Dog vendor on my daughter......
The response was, "Duhhhhhhhhhha!"
It's a certain sort that can appreciate the humor. Others have to ketchup to it, and for others it just never cuts the mustard. Of course a grumpy German might take to these, hot dogs going well with sauerkraut...
And too, if they're Hebrew National hot dogs, they advertise that they exceed USDA specs, after all, they "have to answer to a higher authority," proving yet again that "all dogs go to heaven," or at least some will follow the commandments of their people!
Mr. Lichello likened AIM to a new religion, to steer this somewhat back on topic before I get a swat on my buns...
Hot or otherwise, we're not too dogmatic about it, though - we support multiple flavors..
I'd better get out of the way of that oncoming karma...
Food for thought, at the least!
Yummy!!!
AIMster
wanted to start a machine in this vehicle, [EPP] but am thinking of delaying that till a better point in time(also happy to be in EMM although that covers the whole planet):
The machine may still be worth doing, though started with a generous cash reserve. After all, volatility is the 'engine' of the machine and any exacerbation of a credit crunch would put downward pressure on prices which would make the cash reserve quite handy! One thing the article you reference does make abundantly clear is the increased connectedness of geographical areas and various segments of national economies, even if the connection is not directly obvious. Yet, all things are connected - a reality we do well to keep in mind!
Best,
AIMster
and asked for my contact details so they could do a possible interview for the Smart Investor magazine to talk about AIM.
If it comes through I might be able to raise the profile of AIM and Mr Lichello's other great tool Twinvest. It still amazes me that it has not taken over from Dollar Cost Averageing as the way to enter into investments with less risk.
Hi, Neil,
Congratulations - you not only found the babe, but you got her attention and you're on your way to becoming a magazine-star celebrity! <GRIN>!!! I mean, my dad's ex made People magazine a few months back as one of the 100 most beautiful women over 50! When she showed us the magazine, I told her: "Well, not only did you make the magazine, but you made the centerfold as well!!! Along with about 49 of the other winners of the contest, all headshots, y'know, but hey, she's in there!
Seriously, if the do a follow-up interview and they post a copy of the article online someplace do let the rest of us know about it.
Dollar-cost averaging is the default system around for I suppose the simple reason that most people know about it, it's easy to explain and work. I don't think most people tend to think outside the box when it comes to a question - how could something that's already been made so simple, be done even better? Lichello's gift was to question the obvious, and for that we've been rewarded. But I think Lichello's ideas are lumped into a minority "cult following" grouping, where the most prevalent doctrine is to cut one's losses short and let profits run... run, that is, until they run out! So, go forth and boldly evangelize - you might just help some people save their savings!
Best,
AIMster
Dynamic Materials which creates alloys by blowing things together has the ticker of "BOOM"
has sort of flattened lately, but keep in mind the zigzag is on 30% so AIM might well have gotten something off of it!
AIMster
Web site reincarnation...
Once upon a time http://www.incwave.com was offering a website based AIM-type program, complete with sine-wave illustration of the investing cycle and so on. Unfortunately they wanted about $59/month for their prognostications, so that's a likely reason they sunk...
For a long time it returned "host unreachable" when trying to access it. Now, I see they've morphed from riding investment waves up and down to scuba diving and other things like that. At least the friendly looking lady is a big improvement from the internet error message! Not sure what ever became of the investment folk - but good to see the internet keeps on going on!
Just thought y'all would like to keep up-to-date!
Best,
AIMster
The key'd version I've got runs fine - with no millennium date bugs apparent.
So you were actually able to register a copy, back in the day? Amazing as the program wasn't all that well known. I wonder if anybody's still around enough to even know about the code anymore?
Good planning avoided the Y2K problems, or just novel ways of defining time. The database uniVerse, for instance defines each day via a sequential number from 31 December 1967, that being day "0". We're now on day 14,200 some odd. Unix/Linux is good to around 2034 I think.
Best,
AIMster
[i[A potential benefit of MyWay is that rather than being idle during perhaps 40% sized AIM hold zone price ranging motions, you could plug in the current prices periodically into MyWay and pick off smaller range trades within that zone.
Hi, Clive,
Cue in Frank Sinatra or Elvis doing "My Way" for background music...
Thanks for the info on this one. I had a copy of MyWay floating about once but it would time out due to a lack of registration key - and with the author(s) long since departed on to other projects (or maybe into the next world, it's been so long!) I didn't really have time enough to look at it in detail to see what made it tick, so to speak.
The only drawback to your benefit mentioned above is that using it may well tempt someone to update it fairly often, rather than endure with some stoicism the patience of a long hold zone. Thus, one could more easily go through one's cash reserve, with all the best intentions, of course, only to be left high and dry if one really needs it on a downdraft! Might not be too much of a problem though for someone periodically investing a-la Twinvest or Synchrovest.
More pondering - thanks for the heads up on it.
Best,
AIMster
Or if you were in an exceptionally mischievous mood you could use VB3 decompiler and reverse engineer out the source code ;>)
True, but I'd need the .exe file first, nevermind the decompiler. Small details there...
re: Newport Icon
Hi, Clive,
For those of us who've wished Newport would be put in either the public domain, given it's age, or somehow or other made available, finding the .ico file is at least, some small compensation!
If I were really in a mischievous mood, tapping horns coming out of forehead, I'd tweak my Automatic Investor to show up with the Newport icon! Not seriously, of course, but since the icon is likely about as close as we're gonna get, I hope y'all can at least see the temptation!!! <grin>
Thanks!
AIMster
Epic Bear Market?
The Cosmic Humor dept is working this morning! Whilst reading the article you found one of the online adverts was "House Payments Fall Again!! - $90,000 mortgage for under $499/month!" Obviously some people are still finding easy enough money around to splash such adverts across the Internet!
Not that I want to invoke an image of 1930's - the second act in the next millenium, but... A good part of the Great Depression was due to trade issues and did affect things on a global scale, paving the way for Hitler and thence WW-II. Given the increase in "Globalization" that has taken place over the last 10 years or so especially, I think we need to be aware, at least, that the "butterfly effect" can be a significant factor in how contained, or how widespread this realignment actually becomes. I found it interesting that for world leaders in this article they got the President of Brazil: Perhaps the oddest line on the subject by a world leader was uttered by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil. Asked if he was worried about the effects of the credit crunch in his country, he dismissively called it "an eminently American crisis" caused by people trying to make a lot of "third-class money." . . . Why his state of denial and inclusion in the article - are there some connections to Brazil that are being implied here that we don't fully know about?
The other part will be the speed at which the crunch deflates - hard and fast, or longer term, but maybe with less of a bear drawdown?
There will always be the optimists proclaiming the ever upward path, and the Jeremiahs who see nothing but gloom and doom ahead. Likely the market exists between those extremities most of the time, but has been known to tip toward one or the other for some duration now and then!
As long as you keep plenty of "powder" I think you can AIM out the coming storm, if indeed there is one. It's very easy to get emotionally moved by these sorts of articles, especially when they're well written and "logical." But using AIM lets you tune out both extremes of the market. AIM will function as it always does, making the best call it can with the resources available. That's the real gift of it - not having to run around with the panic of Chicken Little, or be puffed up with the false suavity and bravado of "Foghorn Leghorn" thinking that all is indeed right with the world.
Thanks for the article!
Best,
AIMster
As a few members here have suggested, there's other ways to measure market risk than the IW. Sorry if the conversation got back to it now that it is proprietary and limited in distribution.
Tom,
You were in the message referring to a historical IW reference from around the year 2000, before the IW left the more public use and became proprietary. So in that context it was appropriate. Especially so to illustrate how risk measure impacts generation of cash reserve levels either through sales of maintaining existing levels via "Vealies." As you suggest, other measures may well be developed which will serve a similar function going forward.
Speaking of interesting takes on this - here's someone who's created a whole market risk system based on S&P 500 movements married to a neural network. It does seem to have some momentum aspects, rather than AIM, getting you in more on advances and reducing or even going short on declines. Still, the human mind is nothing if not trying to find the proverbial Holy Grail... Ain't exactly cheap, either - which leads me to the question of how much money do these various "gurus" make by actually using their systems versus selling people subscriptions, and keeping said customers addicted to same? I mean, if you are dependent on this guy for his nightly black-box number to tell you what to do - are you really learning anything for yourself? Also, this particular strategy seems to involve a lot of trading and commensurate costs.
Still, for what it's worth:
http://www.stock-optimizer.com/
Best,
AIMster
Reading the following message directly shows the table [ pre ] format OK
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22905331
Read the same message via a replies link and the table format goes off.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=22902789
In the Opera browser, at least, the two messages are identical. I don't see any change in the formatting of the table.
FWIW.
Best,
AIMster
Hi, Takr,
Scroll down this page http://www.jhfunds.com/Fund/YearlyReturnsTable.aspx?ProductType=MutualFund
and that will give you annual returns for the S&P 500 and a whole lot more too. It lists a bunch of their funds first, then under "Indices" is what you're after. Starts about 1/3rd or so down the page.
Best,
AIMster
Hi Brent and Others, Re: Newport software...............
I installed the program on my new Vista computer last night and it looks like it's going to run okay. I've not transferred historical files in yet to see if all the functions are still there yet. More later on that........
A testament to an amazing run of backward compatibility, which is both a boon and a curse. A boon in that you can keep such ancient stuff going - a curse in that it means a lot more bloated code in the system to make such work. Apple did the line-in-the-sand and now they're running much tighter code. I think the "wall" for Windows users will come when 64-bit computing supplants 32-bit, which we've been using since 1985 or so, as running 32-bit software in a 64-bit system is not nearly as efficient as running native 64-bit.
What other goodies did your new system come with? And if you don't mind, how much did it set you back for, $ wise? Not that I need one right away, but maybe in another year or so, though I suppose I could just add more memory and one of those huge external USB hard disks...
Thanks!
Best,
AIMster
It's September 11th again. There's still a hole in my heart where I keep memories of friends that died that day.
And, again for the first time, also on a Tuesday. In the aftermath I wish some things had turned out differently. That we would have avoided the Iraq imbroglio and stayed focused on the mission of a War on Terrorism - and put al-Qaeda totally out of business, instead of watching yet another Osama bin Laden video this year.
The world forever changed and there's no going back to Sept 10, 2001, and the optimism of the unfolding of the new Century. Instead, in their very absence, the collapsed twin towers cast a long and dark shadow and there's a chill in the air which will remain with us for a long time to come.
RIP, to those who died, and be at peace for their survivors, and may we all find peace, sooner than later.
AIMster
Hi TF, Re: 2008 Profits...............
It's calculated by subtracting the International Date Line from the Longitude and then multiplying it by the Latitude and using a smoothing average.
Add a flux capacitor, a goodly amount of voltage, jazz it up in a DeLorean and you'll be back to the future for profits in no time!
Even our venerable Mr. Lichello in his "Superpower Investing" (Synchrovest) book page 30:
Speaking of the extraordinary Synchrovest profits at various points in time...
"How about four months from now?" said the janitor.
"What are you - a nut?" said Lane. "How can the computer tell you what the price of the stock will be four months from now?"
"Well," saud the janitor, "you called him a nut too!"
Best,
AIMster
Is Cramer a closet AIMer???????
Hi, TF,
Could be. I've picked up hints along this line over time - your message seems to bring it more to the fore. Cramer's maxim, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered" and "Taking some off the table" have "AIMistic" implications. I wonder if Cramer's ever read Lichello's book?
Best,
AIMster
We continue to use AIM here. Mutual funds (10+yrs aimed) in Asia +173% (cash 56%), Sci&Tech +23% (cash 5%), Commodities(2yrs) +28% (cash 45%)
Hi, Sam,
Pretty impressive, both in time and results!
What sort of AIM machines have you been using, Lichello's "Classic" 50/50, AIM-HI 80/20 or some other parameters? I'm curious!
Thanks,
AIMster
However, it appears I might have to change my motto if I were to use it! Maybe something like "Buy when dividends are Dirt and Sell when they're Precious." While being automatic as an investment management strategy, it seems to bare little resemblance to Lichello AIM scaling.
Which got me to thinking...
I wanna keep this as simple as possible to see where it goes, thus:
Say you start with $12,000.
You take a dividend reading and make an initial investment of $1000, say into SPY as we're considering the S&P 500 as our dividend basis. Now, if it moves in the direction where it would signal another buy in the next month, add $1000. This way you've got enough in $1000 increments for a year's worth of trend. If you then get a sell at some point, sell $1000 worth.
So my thought is if one were to follow the trend up-and-down in this fashion, one could be 100% in or 100% out, but would one make enough gain on the part remaining in over enough cycles to make this a profitable venture? If for example if one were 100% out of the market but you now had $14,000 in total, for example, you could either increase the size of each position or be able to follow a longer trend..
Does this sound viable?
Best,
AIMster