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Somewhere around there, I remember looking at my brokerage account that day and it made me smile. Have reduced my holdings substantially since but still have a nice chunk of LT shares.
When you run this thing backwards, it all makes sense. I pulled my hair out trying to see the logic in going dark during some of the most unbelievably easy PR opportunities,why they shunned shareholders,i mean what could/can they really say until it's officially a done deal. I mean, no CEO is that obtuse ,right?
Clearly Glenn wanted to go it alone, his departure signaled a shift to high gear on the sale IMO. I'm sure parties involved were just waiting to see what the outcome of the IQIQ was before wrapping it up, that's enough of a chunk of change move the #.
Me thinks McGanns comment of "prepare to be delighted" to shareholders a year ago means he knew then what this puppy was worth on the open market. It certainly has been anything but since,perhaps the glaring lack of concern over current financing was because it was a moot point. Why would you re fi your house if you were moving in a few months? To think they just realized recentely they could not make it on their own, and are fire sailing the company is crazy, this has been the action plan for years. The difference now is they have every freaking cert on the planet,and no one else can say that. 300M? please..
You can interpret that cryptic message one of two ways, or look a literal quote of his that his employees are exhausted. To me, that is huge tell they can't keep up with demand. Now zoom out to the 50K ft view of the globe. Another plane downed by most likely an internal bomb,there is still no effective cargo screening, the world is getting meaner by the day.This industry is about to enter the first real upgrade since 911,the monies spent on ETD in the next few years will be in the billions. Who will own the gold standard in trace detection?
Smart money doesn't touch OTC's.
Genius is pain. This should be a sticky,and IMO qualifies as the most poignant post of the last tens of thousands on this thread.
The crux of the biscuit is there won't be any other certified devices out there to low ball you. Not only have you eliminated the competition that has gotten the lion's share so far, you've created a monopoly. Any color you like as long as it's black- Henry Ford.
B, here's my feeling for that higher than everyone else #. We retail fish are aware of only one established product of ISC, with a whiff of HX. We bandy around #s like we have some way to do the calcs on a valuation, but really there's no way unless you are aware of what is to come. Their suitors have complete knowledge of future applications for the tech,because they've signed NDA's,and IMO it's seriously vast. Whoever gets the patent library owns the sector for the next decade. Hedge funds don't usually carry OTC's for eight years, this was a very risky and fortuitous deal for PP, and it's about to pay off for them like a broken slot machine. I like most here are tired of the delays,and want a payoff just like DM. But unlike DM, we have scaled back expectations because we are all beat up at this point and pretty much resolved to taking what we can get. DM doesn't think like that fortunately, and will squeeze every ounce of profit available as they are pros- their fund return ave of 17% since 03 is staggering and that's including years of recession. The folks we have cursed for years could be our new best buddies soon. It's not about what ISC has done, but the implications of their market dominance in the years to come that the real valuation will be based on IMO.
"the Board of Directors has authorized us to explore strategic alternatives that will help us build on the momentum we have created over the past year" Translation,strike while the iron's hot. They aren't in love with the merchandise like us,and see this market consolidation as a perfect time to ring the register for an optimum ROI.
http://gsnmagazine.com/article/45755/implant_sciences_explore_strategic_options_growing
The burning question..not if but when. I think everything points to early summer if nothing more than the info in 8K. Lot's of sales to had out there, it's go time. As the Duke said in the Cowboys "we are burnin daylight".
B, don't underestimate the power of the patent library. Morpho got caught nappin,now we know just how desperate they were by that protest. I mean back then how many here even though we would get approved, let alone domintate sales? The 220 was an entry level device that unlocked the door, sky is the limit with what's in the oven. L3 knows what they will own best believe. Stay frosty.
You didn't miss it, and that was the hidden beauty of this CC. Absolute conspicuous absence of any addressing of debt reduction, action plan going fwd, progress of strategic alternatives, nada. Loaves of bread not crumbs in this forest.
They will eclipse 50M in FY 15 revs, and go broke doing it. They had to give the stuff away to shut out the bigs boys and serve notice. The cost there is it has become the maxxed out credit card you pay interest only on monthly and they know it. L3 takes them out and they own the space without paying a shylock. Pretty simple stuff really, they each have what the other wants.
Not releasing a PR on it has had a far better effect on the SP than if they had. Where there's smoke..
Lot's of moving parts here, not the least of which parties involved were waiting on the IDIQ amendment. That's a big chunk to factor in to a sale price as it addresses their X times annual rev for a buyout #. If the whole enchilada fills by years end, that's far above the 40M that has been bandied about. I'm sure there were a few interested parties,if you've followed this as long as most here you know the road leads to L3 for obvious reasons.
Z, totally agree on the TSA extension. That tells me they will fill the entire order as well. Significant negotiation factor on the sale amount IMO.
Companies with bad Q's usually release after the close on Fridays to allow shareholders time to reflect,and conversely Mondays are a great day to start the week on a positive. We will see what the #s are,can't hurt to have another solid Q but given the last two did nothing we all know the only thing that's going to move the needle is that one catalyst- an outright sale. People love to fantasize about a partnership,but forget it's got very little to do now with what ISC wants V the real owner of the company. It would take a year to uplist,along with a fat RS because that would be a given. Moot at this point IMO,but till then it's forever in quicksand on this snake pit exchange with this constant BS.
I expect a weak Q,as I don't think that any addl TSA order has been shipped. Would really like to hear something definitive timeline wise on the HX,not that it will matter in the short term,but towards a final valuation on a buyout. Couldn't give a crap if it's .40 or .80,my revenge will be in the sale.
And thia is why the company must be sold. They cannot generate enough profit between thin margins and obscene interest rates on a balloon loan to even think about an uplilst to get off this circus exchange. It's over,there was a chance they could have pulled it off a couple years ago had it not been for the overwhelming conspiracy to kill this company. The lender tightened their grip like any good Snake and oxygen(cash) was depleted. IMO the silver lining now is that same cursed lender of ours quite possibly will be instrumental in squeezing every last drop of value out of it to a buyer. These guys play hardball, ruthless but smart. You don't get a 17% ave return on your fund the last 13 years through a major recession being dumb asses. Hell, when the books close on this deal I might just take a postion in PP's fund, their record speaks for itself.
Monday 5/16
Meet your General who will win the war-
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-hedgefunds-platinum/
Here's one to wrap your head around. Let's say the low end projections come true, and it's 1.50 a share on a buyout. Meanwhile,the SP creeps up in anticipation of a "major transaction" and the evil MM's take the lid off. So, if it gets north of 1.50 on any whiff of major news prior, do you take the sure thing, or let it ride?
We all know it's a screamin deal at these levels..how about 1.80 before the wraps are off?
True, and since that's the case here why only Aus and not the rest of the world with the possible exclusion of GB?. Ostensibly a distribution agreement,and again with no formal announcement from either party- it just magically appears in literature at a trade show.
I am in full agreement that the ultimate value here for an L3 is the IP,and the qualifications that go with it. They simply don't have the time to RE the patents and go through the glacial process of approval- ISC will have won hundreds of millions of awards by then.. or a competitor who buys them sooner. This is after all the gold standard we are talkin here,and we all remember the golden rule. Write a check and it's plug and play.
It was an attempt at humor, but clearly it shows L3 thinks enough of the tech to "partner" with them,at the very least.
I guess I missed the PR from Implant on this Dist agreement? Would be a feather in their cap considering L3 has their own branded ETD right?
Consolidation took it's sweet ass time, but it's upon us. Should be an interesting rest of the week,and month.
Think handheld,think dignified rapid screening,think solution.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/nyc-airports-no-longer-tolerate-tsas-inadequacy-163404595--abc-news-topstories.html
Buzz, here's the irony- if L3 did take them under their wing and allow them to continue to innovate and uplist this could be a that $7-10 stock in a hot minute. All that does is make them pay more down the road.
Yes, I think it was a slip up and a smoking gun and can't be overstated what it foretells. Nowak hit it on the head,Implant doesn't need any help selling. Important to make the distinction between their toxic lending and having the rights to the gold standard of ETD. A buyer is well aware of both,but what gets overplayed here ad nauseum is the debt, it's nothing for a company that does 2.5B a Q in sales.
L3 has been in talks with them since 08. They were probably(like everyone else) dumbfounded that this little mericun company completely dominated ETD global orders, and that's with a one trick pony widget. IMO people just don't get how dangerous the IP is to competing tech. I am not one to kiss and tell here, but have been privy to some interesting behind the scene correspondence that has included people in the know and it's a done deal, and not one of distribution. If nothing else look at it this way, L3 couldn't afford NOT to aquire them, they have no approved tech of significance, and this is just a slice of what's coming with this IP. They write a check, and own the sector for years to come. Hell, they can just walk over and hang their sign over Implants and the worker bees just keep on humming in the new L3 ETD dist/r&d facility.
L3 buys start ups that take market share, best believe that is happening right now. Partnership? Why make money off the milk when you can buy the cow-and this sector respects the sweet milk this cow has been producing.
Rest assured,there is categorically nothing typed on any MB that will have an effect on the buyout price of ISC if that's what is in the cards. Beer money and job security for MM's that feed off Sheep emotions. You either have a seat when the music stops, or you don't.
It's beyond growing pains and obstacles, they no longer own the company. L3 needs the tech to compete, they want nothing to do with a hedge fund, the hedge fund wants their fat payday after eight long years. But you are correct on one thing, it will most likely go a completely different direction because after all, it's Implant, the stock story that could not be scripted by Hollywood's best writers.
Already a done deal IMO,if it wasn't that literature would not have been released. History will relate shareholders are always the last to know what these guys are up to. Definitely a quiet period now, they can't steal L3's thunder as that will be a crushing slap to Smiths. Just waiting on the release.
Are there even 2k shareholders?. This stock fell off most radar screens years ago with no perceived follow through. It's sub floor,zero exposure,no relative buying interest,otc,crooked,mm's, all goin on.
They seem to be releasing the SP death grip slowly, one fine morning this will all be over thankfully.
Not that it really matters now, but .85 would be a 52 week high. It tried to crest .80 a few times over year ago, but was bitch slapped down from there to five year lows.
Suppose there's a chance,but highly doubt it's a good chance more like Jim Carrey's asking out the babe in dumb and dumber. All the language in their recent filings smack of an outright sale,behemoths like L3 don't share they devour. Even at an 800M # that's one months gross sales, they can belch then write a check for it. With you though on plan B, could well have been a $20-30 stock in time with a different mindset.
10.5 Billion in sales 2015
http://www.l-3com.com/press-release/l-3-declares-quarterly-dividend-23
I'd like to think out of those "five or six" companies that they were in talks with one of them was Smiths,and when Smiths saw the price tag for ISC they went with the tier 2 tech.
Umm.. no like the thrust was it has a good chance of being acquired in may, then I sell,then I go away. Didn''t ride along for 6 1/2 years to pit for fuel on the last lap.